20241210 Morocco's Atlantic Initiative: A Catalyst for Sahel-Saharan Integr

[정민섭]

https://www.policycenter.ma/publications/moroccos-atlantic-initiative-catalyst-sahel-saharan-integration
Morocco’s Atlantic Initiative: A Catalyst for Sahel-Saharan Integration
Rida Lyammouri Amine Ghoulidi
December 10, 2024


Morocco, leveraging its strategic position and proven expertise in infrastructure development, has proposed an ambitious framework to reconnect the Sahel to global supply chains via its Atlantic coastline. The Sahel’s vast distances and dispersed population have historically deterred significant infrastructure investments, perpetuating a cycle of underdevelopment. Morocco's strategic initiatives in infrastructure stand out as potentially transformative, adopting a comprehensive approach to regional integration that addresses both physical infrastructure needs and broader economic development requirements in the Sahel.
Introduction
The Sahel region’s[1] persistent economic isolation represents one of Africa's most pressing development challenges. This vast expanse of landlocked nations, including Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad, faces significant barriers to global market integration. Geographic isolation, with distances spanning hundreds of kilometers from the nearest seaports, drives logistics costs to 30-40% of import values, severely undermining economic competitiveness and stifling development prospects.[2]
However, this challenge also presents an opportunity for transformative regional integration. Building on a broader vision for the Atlantic space, which Morocco is seeking to shape through the Royal Atlantic Initiative, Morocco, capitalizing on its strategic position and proven expertise in infrastructure development, is spearheading efforts to reconnect the Sahel to global supply chains through its Atlantic coastline. This vision, formalized in the Atlantic Initiative announced on November 6, 2023, builds upon Morocco’s significant expansion of economic engagement with Africa, where exports have surged from $300 million to over $3 billion between 2004 and 2024.[3] The approach seeks not only to alleviate logistical burdens but also to foster co-development and shared prosperity, in line with the Initiative’s emphasis on solidarity and cooperation among Atlantic and African partners. Central to this vision, spearheaded by Royal initiatives, are two interconnected pillars: an evolving maritime infrastructure network along the Atlantic and integrated energy systems.
Strategic Context
The Sahel's development trajectory has long been constrained by a complex interplay of geographic, infrastructural, and political challenges. Landlocked nations such as Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad contend with prohibitively high transport costs that significantly undermine their economic competitiveness. Inadequate road infrastructure, particularly in rural areas, exacerbates these challenges, while limited energy access remains a critical barrier to industrial development and economic diversification. The region’s vast distances and sparse population distribution have historically deterred significant infrastructure investments, perpetuating a cycle of underdevelopment.
Recent geopolitical shifts have added new dimensions to these challenges while simultaneously creating opportunities for transformative change. The formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) by Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, followed by their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in early 2024, signifies a major realignment of regional political forces.[4] This restructuring, along with the increasing influence of Russia, Turkey, and China in the region, presents both obstacles and avenues for new strategies. Within this complex landscape, Morocco's initiative reflects a strategic understanding that transcends purely security-oriented solutions to the Sahel's challenges, emphasizing instead an integrated approach that combines infrastructure development with economic opportunities. Furthermore, the withdrawal of traditional Western partners, particularly France, has accelerated the search for innovative regional solutions and partnerships.[5]
Morocco's rise as a leading investor in the region, with revenues from African investments exceeding US$2.5 billion and dominant positions in sectors such as telecommunications, banking, and infrastructure development, uniquely positions it to tackle these challenges.[6] Traditional development approaches in the Sahel have often relied on single-sector solutions or bilateral arrangements, which fall short of addressing the region’s interconnected nature. In contrast, Morocco’s strategic infrastructure initiatives present a transformative model, offering a holistic approach to regional integration that addresses physical infrastructure needs while aligning with the broader economic development goals of the Sahel.
Morocco's Integrated Infrastructure Vision
Maritime Infrastructure and the Atlantic Initiative
At the heart of Morocco's regional strategy lies the Atlantic Initiative, launched in November 2023, aimed at creating a robust trade and transport network connecting Morocco's Atlantic coastline with the Sahel.[7],[8] A key component of this initiative is the ambitious Dakhla Atlantic Port project, a US$1.2 billion deep-water facility designed to handle large cargo volumes and serve as a vital gateway for Sahelian countries to access global markets. With operations set to begin by 2029, the port exemplifies Morocco's long-term commitment to reshaping regional trade frameworks and promoting new models of economic integration.[9]
The success of this maritime infrastructure network hinges on the synergy between Morocco's emerging facilities and Mauritania's established infrastructure at Nouakchott and Nouadhibou.[10] While Mauritania carefully navigates regional dynamics, particularly those involving Morocco-Algeria relations, the potential for complementary port specialization offers compelling economic incentives for collaboration. Rather than competing, these ports could create a cohesive network of maritime infrastructure along the Atlantic coast. Through close coordination in port development and management, Morocco and Mauritania could create an efficient maritime gateway system tailored to serve different market segments and trade routes.
The port network's design incorporates advanced logistics capabilities and multimodal transport connections, facilitating seamless alignment with land-based transport networks. This integration is vital for landlocked Sahelian countries, providing them with dependable access to maritime trade routes and significantly reducing transport costs. Additionally, the planned green hydrogen infrastructure at the Dakhla port positions the network as a potential hub for future clean energy exports, aligning with global trends in energy transition trends and sustainability.
Energy Infrastructure Development
The African-Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP) is another cornerstone of Morocco's regional vision.[11] This ambitious US$25 billion energy project aims to link Nigeria to Morocco through an extensive pipeline network traversing multiple West African countries, including Mauritania.[12] The pipeline's strategic importance is amplified by Europe’s increasing interest in diversifying its gas supply sources from Africa, especially amid uncertainties surrounding traditional transit networks. Beyond its role in gas transmission, the AAGP holds broader significance, offering opportunities for industrial development along its route. This includes the potential to catalyze the establishment of new manufacturing and processing zones.[13]
The pipeline project is complemented by Morocco's expertise in renewable energy development, particularly in solar power. This dual focus underscores Morocco's broader strategy of asserting leadership in both traditional and renewable energy sectors, leveraging its successful domestic implementations while expanding its investments across Africa. The Sahel's vast solar potential makes it an ideal candidate for renewable energy projects inspired by Morocco's successful initiatives. By combining natural gas infrastructure with renewable energy development, this dual approach could deliver a reliable and sustainable energy supply, essential for driving industrial growth and improving living standards across the region.
Country-Specific Impact and Opportunities
Mauritania: Strategic Partner and Beneficiary
Mauritania plays a dual role in these infrastructure initiatives, serving both as a key partner and a major beneficiary. Its strategic location between Morocco and the Sahel is critical to realizing the Atlantic Initiative's vision of regional connectivity. However, Mauritania’s diplomatic posture reflects the intricate regional dynamics at play. While maintaining neutrality amid Maghreb tensions, particularly between Morocco and Algeria, Mauritania must carefully navigate the competitive implications for its ports at Nouakchott and Nouadhibou. These ports, which reportedly handled over 5.22 million tons of cargo in 2022 and serve as a vital commercial artery for several Sahelian countries, are central to the country’s economic landscape. Nevertheless, the Atlantic Initiative's framework for regional integration offers significant potential to enhance maritime cooperation, building on this strong foundation.[14] The AAGP's routing through Mauritania presents significant opportunities for industrial development and enhanced energy access. Mauritania could leverage its strategic position to develop industrial zones and processing facilities along the pipeline route while benefiting from improved energy security. This potential for industrial growth aligns with Morocco's proven success in sectoral investments across Africa, particularly in telecommunications, banking, and infrastructure, where Moroccan companies have established leadership positions.
Benefits for Landlocked Sahel States
For Mali, whose economy relies heavily on gold, cotton, and livestock exports, the benefits lie in reducing transport costs.[15] Enhanced port access through the Atlantic Initiative's economic framework could strengthen the competitiveness of Mali's mining and agriculture sectors, building on Morocco's vision of transcontinental connectivity. As Morocco's third-largest investment destination in Africa, Mali exemplifies the potential for deepening economic integration through infrastructure development.[16] The energy infrastructure developments would not only support the expansion of Mali’s mining and agriculture operations but could also stimulate the growth of value-added processing industries, creating new employment opportunities and fostering economic diversification.
Niger's uranium and crude oil sectors stand to gain significantly from improved export routes and reduced transport costs.[17] The current limitations on port access, compounded by the country’s withdrawal from ECOWAS, have severely hindered its ability to fully capitalize on its natural resources.[18] Morocco's initiatives offer not only alternative trade routes but also the potential for developing new industrial capabilities along these corridors. Additionally, the AAGP could provide reliable energy access to support industrial development.
Similar to Mali, Burkina Faso's gold and cotton sectors would benefit from streamlined access to global markets through the maritime and transport networks envisioned in the Atlantic Initiative.[19] Enhanced energy access would foster the development of value-added activities within the agricultural sector, potentially transforming Burkina Faso's position in both regional and global value chains. The improved infrastructure network could also help formalize trade flows and reduce transaction costs.
Chad, despite its geographic isolation, stands to leverage these initiatives, potentially reshaping its economic geography. Improved connectivity to global markets would reduce the country's dependence on limited regional trade routes, while enhanced energy access could stimulate the growth of local processing industries.
Strategic Benefits and Regional Integration
Economic Impact and Trade Enhancement
The potential impact of Morocco's infrastructure initiatives goes far beyond immediate transport and energy benefits. These projects could serve as a catalyst for broader regional integration by creating new economic corridors and facilitating increased trade flows between North and West Africa. The formalization of trade routes, alongside implementation of digital infrastructure, could help shift a significant portion of regional trade from informal to formal channels, enhancing economic governance and improving tax revenue collection. In doing so, the Initiative aligns with a larger vision of a harmonized Atlantic space under the Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation, fostering a common Atlantic identity and shared prosperity.
Security and Stability
Furthermore, these initiatives could strengthen regional security by generating economic opportunities in border regions and establishing more regulated trade corridors. The development of formal trade routes could reduce illegal trafficking and improve border control, contributing to greater regional stability. The economic opportunities generated along these corridors could provide viable alternatives to informal and illicit activities that currently thrive in border regions.
Knowledge Transfer and Capacity Building
The initiatives also present significant opportunities for knowledge transfer and capacity building. Morocco's expertise in port management, renewable energy development, and infrastructure operation can be shared with partner countries, ensuring the long-term sustainability of these investments. This is especially relevant for Mauritania, which stands to enhance its maritime and logistics capabilities through close cooperation with Morocco.
Implementation Approaches and Practical Considerations
Successful implementation of these projects requires coordinated action across several key areas, with Morocco-Mauritania cooperation serving as a cornerstone for broader regional integration. The complexity of implementing the US$25 billion gas pipeline project, alongside major port and transport infrastructure, requires sophisticated coordination mechanisms and sustained political commitment. Critical factors for success include establishing effective project coordination and management mechanisms, developing technical capacity, ensuring financial sustainability, and maintaining security along transport corridors.
The initiative's success will hinge on effectively navigating the complex interplay of regional rivalries and strategic interests. Morocco's position as a key Western partner enhances its ability to secure international financial backing, but implementation must delicately balance competing regional priorities, particularly given the significant geopolitical rivalries and the complexities introduced by Great Power involvement in the region. Complementary infrastructure development in participating countries will also be crucial, including benefit from streamlined access to global markets through the maritime and transport networks envisioned in the Atlantic Initiative and last-mile infrastructure distribution systems. Additionally, prioritizing technical capacity building for infrastructure management and maintenance will require substantial investment in human capital development and institutional strengthening.
Conclusion
Morocco's infrastructure initiatives, developed in close collaboration with regional partners, particularly Mauritania, offer a transformative opportunity to enhance the Sahel's development prospects. The Atlantic Initiative arrives at a pivotal moment in the region’s evolution, as traditional economic and political structures experience significant shifts. Morocco's proven success in expanding its economic footprint across Africa—from $300 million to over $3 billion in exports over two decades—underscores the potential for new models of regional integration. These projects exemplify how coordinated regional action can address shared challenges while unlocking new opportunities for economic growth and integration. Their success, however, will hinge on sustained political commitment and practical cooperation among all stakeholders, with the Morocco-Mauritania partnership acting as a pivotal catalyst for broader regional development. As the Sahel navigates complex geopolitical shifts, this approach to infrastructure development provides a pragmatic pathway for enhancing regional integration and economic prosperity, potentially transforming the region's economic geography and development trajectory for decades to come.

---

[1] For the purposes of this paper, the Sahel region refers to the countries of Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad.
[2] Andrew Mold, “The Economic Significance of Intra-African Trade: Getting the Narrative Right,” August 2022, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Economic-significance_of_intra-African_trade.pdf
[3] Abderrafie Zaanoun, “Morocco’s Atlantic Initiative and Potential Challenges to Regional Leadership,” October 10, 2024. https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/2024/10/moroccos-atlantic-initiative-and-potential-challenges-to-regional-leadership
[4] Abdelhak Bassou, “From the Alliance of Sahel States to the Confederation of Sahel States: The Road is Clear, But Full of Traps,” 24 April 2024, https://www.policycenter.ma/publications/alliance-sahel-states-confederation-sahel-states-road-clear-full-traps
[5] Chinedu Asadu, “France completes military withdrawal from Niger, leaving a gap in the terror fight in the Sahel,” 22 December 2023, https://apnews.com/article/niger-france-sahel-coup-troops-security-macron-97c8ccfe880169832965c33e96d7befe
[6] Abderrafie Zaanoun, “Morocco’s Atlantic Initiative and Potential Challenges to Regional Leadership,” October 10, 2024. https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/2024/10/moroccos-atlantic-initiative-and-potential-challenges-to-regional-leadership
[7] MAP, “Royal Atlantic Initiative Is Visionary Approach Mobilizing New Potential for Cooperation, Co-development (Amb.),” May 10, 2024. https://www.mapnews.ma/en/actualites/politics/royal-atlantic-initiative-visionary-approach-mobilizing-new-potential
[8] “Jassim Ahdani, “Mohammed VI, le Sahel et l’ « Afrique atlantique» : le nouveau schémastratégique du Maroc,” May 28, 2024. https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1571711/politique/jamal-machrouh-vouloir-construire-ensemble-est-le-seul-gage-pour-un-espace-africain-atlantique-fiable-et-durable/
[9] Assahifa, “Politika: Dakhla Atlantic Port, Africa's New Gateway to the Ocean,” September 24, 2024. https://www.assahifa.com/english/morocco/politika-dakhla-atlantic-port-africas-new-gateway-to-the-ocean/
[10] Business Focus, “Interview with Sidi Mohamed Ould Maham, General Manager Autonomous Port of Nouakchott (Port of friendship – PANPA),” November 23, 2023. https://businessfocus.org.uk/interview-with-sidi-mohamed-ould-maham-general-manager-autonomous-port-of-nouakchott-port-of-friendship-panpa/
[11] Solomon Ekanem, “NNPCL, ONHYM announce progress on the 6,800KM Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline project,” November 2, 2024. https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/nnpcl-onhym-announce-progress-on-the-6800km-nigeria-morocco-gas-pipeline-project/c6q3dt7
[12] John Ofikhenua and Vincent Ikuomola, “$25b Nigeria – Morocco gas project at land acquisition, resettlement,” November 2, 2024. https://thenationonlineng.net/25b-nigeria-morocco-gas-project-at-land-acquisition-resettlement/
[13] S&P Global, “CERAWEEK: FID expected on Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline by year-end, NNPC head says ,” March 20, 2024. https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/032024-ceraweek-fid-expected-on-nigeria-morocco-gas-pipeline-by-year-end-nnpc-head-says
[14] Business Focus, “Interview with Sidi Mohamed Ould Maham, General Manager Autonomous Port of Nouakchott (Port of friendship – PANPA),” November 23, 2023. https://businessfocus.org.uk/interview-with-sidi-mohamed-ould-maham-general-manager-autonomous-port-of-nouakchott-port-of-friendship-panpa/
[15] U.S. International Trade Administration, “Mali - Country Commercial Guide,” June 6, 2024. https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/mali-mining
[16] Omar Ben Larbi, “Maroc-Mali : Une relation historique profonde et un destin partenarial gagnant,” October 11, 2021. https://archive.challenge.ma/maroc-mali-une-relation-historique-profonde-et-un-destin-partenarial-gagnant-avec-223304
[17] Alex Kimani, “Niger Aims to Become Major Oil Exporter,” 19 August 2024, https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Niger-Aims-to-Become-Major-Oil-Exporter.html#:~:text=Niger%20has%20restarted%20oil%20exports,shipments%20to%20repay%20the%20loan.
[18] Azerbaijan 24, “Niger negotiates port access after regional bloc exit move,” February 15, 2024. https://www.azerbaycan24.com/en/niger-negotiates-port-access-after-regional-bloc-exit-move/
[19] AFP, “Burkina Faso Halts Export of Gold from Artisanal Mining,” February 21, 2024.https://www.barrons.com/news/burkina-faso-halts-export-of-gold-from-artisanal-mining-11bf303d




# Morocco's Atlantic Initiative: A Catalyst for Sahel-Saharan Integration

PCNS(Policy Center for the New South)의 보고서와 심층 분석 자료를 바탕으로, 모로코의 '대서양 구상'이 사헬 지역에 미치는 영향과 지정학적 함의를 체계적으로 요약

🇲🇦 모로코의 '대서양 구상'과 사헬-사하라 통합 비전

모로코에 기반을 둔 독립 싱크탱크 PCNS는 이 보고서를 통해 내륙에 고립된 사헬 지역(말리, 니제르, 부르키나파소, 차드)을 모로코의 대서양 해안과 연결하려는 '대서양 구상(Atlantic Initiative)'의 경제적 가치와 전략적 잠재력을 심층적으로 분석하고 있습니다.

1. 사헬 지역의 근본적 위기와 모로코의 해법사헬 국가들의 가장 큰 발전 장애물은 가장 가까운 항구로부터 수백 킬로미터 떨어져 있는 '지리적 고립'입니다. 물류비용이 수입액의 30~40%에 달해 국가의 경제 경쟁력이 심각하게 훼손되고 있으며, 이는 곧 빈곤과 저개발의 악순환으로 이어지고 있습니다.
이에 모로코는 2023년 11월, 사헬 국가들에게 자국의 해양 인프라를 개방하여 이들을 글로벌 공급망에 직접 편입시키는 거대한 돌파구인 '대서양 구상'을 발표했습니다.

2. 구상을 실현할 2대 메가 프로젝트모로코는 지난 20년간 아프리카 투자를 10배 이상(3억 달러 → 30억 달러) 늘려온 경제적 역량과 선진 인프라를 바탕으로 두 가지 핵심 사업을 추진하고 있습니다.

다클라 대서양 항만:12억 달러가 투입되는 대형 화물 처리 심해 항만 (2029년 운영 목표) - 사헬 국가들의 글로벌 시장 진입을 위한 물류 관문 역할 및 미래 '녹색 수소' 수출 허브로의 도약
아프리카-대서양 가스관 (AAGP):"250억 달러 규모, 나이지리아에서 모로코를 잇는 거대 천연가스 파이프라인" - 유럽으로의 안정적인 가스 공급 및 파이프라인 경유 국가들의 산업화에 필수적인 에너지 인프라 제공

3. 사헬 국가별 맞춤형 경제 효과ECOWAS 탈퇴 등 지역 내 정치적 격변을 겪고 있는 사헬 국가들에게 모로코의 인프라 제안은 즉각적이고 강력한 경제적 이점을 제공합니다.

• 모리타니 (핵심 파트너): 모로코와 사헬을 잇는 지정학적 요충지로, 자국의 기존 항구(누악쇼트 등) 인프라 시너지 효과와 가스관 경유를 통한 대규모 산업 발전 기회를 얻습니다.
• 말리 & 부르키나파소: 주요 수출품인 금, 목화, 축산물의 물류비용이 획기적으로 절감되어 농업 및 광업 부문의 글로벌 경쟁력이 강화되고 글로벌 가치 사슬(GVC)에 통합될 수 있습니다.
• 니제르: ECOWAS 제재로 인해 항구 접근이 막힌 상황에서 우라늄과 원유 수출을 위한 안정적인 대체 무역로를 확보하게 됩니다.
• 차드: 극심한 내륙의 고립 상태에서 벗어나 글로벌 시장과의 물리적 연결성이 크게 개선됩니다.

4. 지역 통합을 위한 다각적 파급 효과이러한 인프라 연계는 단순한 물류비 절감을 넘어 사헬 지역 전체의 구조적 변화를 견인합니다.

• 안보와 안정성 강화: 정규 무역로가 활성화되면 국경 지대의 밀수 등 불법 거래가 공식 경제로 양성화되어 세수가 증대되고 국경 통제력이 강화됩니다.
• 기술 및 역량 이전: 모로코가 보유한 선진 항만 운영 노하우와 신재생 에너지(태양광 등) 개발 역량이 사헬 국가들로 전수되어 지역 전체의 자생력을 높입니다.

5. 현실적 난관과 한계점원대한 비전에도 불구하고 이 프로젝트가 넘어야 할 장벽은 높습니다. 250억 달러에 달하는 가스관 건설 등 막대한 재원을 조달해야 하며, 아프리카 내 주도권을 둘러싼 모로코-알제리 간의 패권 경쟁, 그리고 사헬 지역에 깊이 개입하고 있는 러시아, 튀르키예, 중국 등 강대국들의 이해관계를 아슬아슬하게 조율해야 하는 정치·외교적 과제가 남아있습니다.

💡 종합 평가PCNS의 이 보고서는 모로코가 구상하는 대서양-사헬 연대의 청사진을 학술적 데이터와 구체적인 경제 효과를 통해 훌륭하게 입증하고 있습니다. 국제 자금을 유치하고 사헬 국가들을 설득하기 위한 매우 강력하고 세련된 논거를 제공합니다.
다만, 모로코에 본부를 둔 싱크탱크의 특성상 모로코의 시각에 편향되어 있다는 점은 유의해야 합니다. 경쟁국인 알제리의 반발이나 사헬 국가들의 독자성 훼손 우려 등 민감한 정치적 변수에 대한 비판적 분석은 부족하지만, 서방의 영향력이 축소된 사헬 지역에서 모로코가 '가장 현실적이고 실용적인 경제 파트너'로 급부상하고 있음을 보여주는 핵심적인 자료입니다.