러시아, 우크라이나 곡물 수출을 방해하기 위해 흑해에 기뢰를 부설

[위종민]

러시아가 우크라이나의 곡물 수출을 방해하기 위해 흑해에 기뢰를 부설했다고 합니다. 

영국이 우크라이나에 판매한 소해정이 다다넬즈 해협을 통과하지 못하고 있는데, 터키가 은근슬쩍 그 배들을 통과시켜 줄 지도 모르겠습니다. 

또한 러시아는 오데사에 대한 공습을 계속하고 있다고 합니다. 

https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo

Russia Lays Mines in Black Sea to Block Ukrainian Ports, NSC Says

By: Sam LaGrone and Heather Mongilio

July 19, 2023 12:15 PM • Updated: July 19, 2023 8:16 PM

Former Coast Guard cutters transit the Bosporus into the Black Sea in 2019. Photo by Yörük Işık used with permission

Russia has laid sea mines in the Black Sea that could interfere with Ukrainian grain exports, the White House announced Wednesday.

The new mines could be used to justify future attacks against civilian ships and blame Ukraine, the National Security Council said in a statement to USNI News.

“In addition to this coordinated effort in the Black Sea, we have already observed that Russia targeted Ukraine’s grain export ports in Odesa with missiles and drones on July 18 and 19, resulting in the destruction of agricultural infrastructure and 60,000 tons of grain,” reads the statement.

Two days after Russia pulled out of an agreement for Ukraine to ship grain through the Black Sea, the Kremlin declared all cargo ships traveling to Ukrainian ports as potentially carrying military cargo in support of Kyiv.

“ In connection with the cessation of the functioning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the сlosing of the maritime humanitarian corridor, from 00.00 Moscow time on 20 July 2023, all vessels sailing in the waters of the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be regarded as potential carriers of military cargo,” reads a message the MoD issued on the social messaging platform Telegram.
“Accordingly, the countries of such vessels will be considered to be involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kyiv regime.”

The National Security Council said in the statement that it believes Russia may target the civilian ships in future attacks in addition to recent bombing in Odessa that hit grain supplies.

Under international law, the declaration allows Russian forces to board and search ships suspected of transporting arms, James Kraska, a maritime law expert and one of the author of the Newport Manual of the Law of Naval Warfare, told USNI News on Wednesday.

“Russia has a right to do that under the law of visit and search,” he said.
“They’re entitled to visit ships and board them to see if there are any weapons on board.”

However, if the ships are Ukrainian-flagged, they can be captured as a war prize.

“It doesn’t make them targets,” Kraska said.

As part of the grain deal brokered by Turkey and United Nations, which expired when Russia pulled out Monday, Moscow had the right to inspect ships heading to Ukraine, said Sal Mercogliano, an associate professor at Campbell University.

The concern is if Russia decides to attack ships going to or from Ukraine, Mercogliano said.

“What you’re seeing is an escalation on the Black Sea, and the fear is that if Russia hits ships sailing to Ukraine, what is to prevent Ukraine from hitting ships sailing from Russia?” he said. “And then you have a full-fledged commerce war between Ukraine and Russia targeting largely neutral third world nation ships, sailing carrying food, fuel and fertilizer.”

There is a chance that there could be armed escorts to protect merchant ships, but the question is who would provide them, Mercogliano said. Turkey closed the Bosphorus Strait to any warships from non-Black Sea from entering the Black Sea.

Turkey could provide an armed escort, as could Romania and Bulgaria as Black Sea nations. NATO could also provide shore support or put teams aboard the ships, he said.

“The question is how much would a nation want to get involved? You know, we just deployed a destroyer, and F-35s and F-16s to protect merchant ships coming out of the Straits of Hormuz by Iranian attacks,” Mercogliano said. “Yet we seem like we’re not going to do the same for ships in the Black Sea.”

Additionally, the Russian MOD declared certain sections of the Black Sea hazardous to navigation.

“Corresponding information warnings on the withdrawal of safety guarantees to mariners have been issued in accordance with the established procedure,” reads the message from the MoD.

The new declaration follows the expiration of a deal that allowed grain to leave Ukraine. Moscow said Russia did not receive concessions as part of the deal. That included reconnecting a Russian bank to the international SWIFT system, completion of an ammonia pipeline and allowing Russian ships to dock in international ports.

Up to 10 percent of the world’s grain is produced in Ukraine. The country serves as the bread basket for much of the Middle East and North Africa.

https://news.usni.org/2023/07/20/russia-continues-attacks-odesa-after-grain-deal-collapse-nsc-warns-of-potential-food-shortages

Russia Continues Odesa Attacks After Grain Deal Collapse, NSC Warns Of Potential Food Shortages

By: Heather Mongilio

July 20, 2023 5:12 PM

Attacks on Odesa. Ukrainian MoD Photo

Russian bombed the Ukrainian port city Odesa for the second time since Moscow pulled out of a United Nations-Turkey brokered deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain, U.S. officials said on Thursday.

Ukraine told the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe that Russian strikes are hitting ports that hold more than 1 million tons of foodstuffs, the Kyiv Independent tweeted.

It is the third night, overall, that Moscow attacked Ukrainian port cities, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Thursday. Russia pulled out of its deal with Ukraine on Monday. Up to 60,000 tons of grain may have been affected by the strikes.

On Wednesday, Russia said that it would treat ships coming into Ukraine as potentially carrying military supplies, which has led to concerns that Moscow might attack commercial ships. The NSC announced Wednesday night that Russia laid additional sea mines in the waters leading to Ukrainian ports, which might allow them to attack commercial ships and blame Ukraine.

The NSC released that information in order to share a warning about the danger in the Black Sea and the potential for food shortages, Kirby said.

“And that’s because of one party and one party only. And that’s Russia,” Kirby said. “We thought it was important to put that out there for the public.”

The United States does not currently have any assets in the Black Sea. Turkey closed the Bosphorus Strait to warships from non-Black Sea countries shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Pentagon urges Russia to rejoin the grain deal, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters Thursday. Grain prices have already risen in response, she added.

UK MoD Photo

“The message that Vladimir Putin is sending to these countries is that he doesn’t care,” Singh said. “He continues to engage in this unjust, unprovoked war that seems to be his priority rather than the idea that there could be other starving countries all around the world because he has withdrawn Russia from the grain deal.”

One of the concerns of the lack of a grain deal is the potential of famine in lower-income countries that rely on foodstuffs that come from Ukrainian grain. While other grain sources rose up in response to the Russo-Ukrainian War, agriculture can fluctuate and those grain sources can easily stop due to low rivers or other climate concerns, Campbell University professor Sal Mercogliano previously told USNI News.

With the extra grain from Ukraine and other sources, there was some overabundance, which drove wheat prices down. Five European Union countries – Poland, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania – have banned Ukrainian grain imports, although it will allow grain to travel through their countries, PBS reported. The ban is due to the overabundance of Ukrainian grain in the countries, which caused grain prices to fall, hurting farmers.

The grain deal is important for Ukraine, which relies on the exports for its economy, USNI News previously reported.

As part of the U.N.-Turkey brokered deal, Ukraine was able to export 32,856,036 tonnes of foodstuffs, with corn accounting for 51 percent followed by wheat at 27 percent, according to the U.N.

While grain goes to lower-income countries, it also went to a number of developed countries, which could use the grain and process it into foodstuffs for other countries.

The top five cargo destinations were China, Spain, Turkey, Italy and the Netherlands.
United Nations World Food Program bought 80 percent of its grain from Ukraine. The grain would then go to Ethiopia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Sudan, Somalia, Kenya and Djibouti, according to the European Union. Prior to the war, the World Food Program bought 50 percent of wheat from Ukraine.

[Minowski(김유철)]

솔직히 여지껏 곡물수출이 가능했다는 것이 더 신기했던건지도...

[위종민]

전쟁 중에도 무역창구는 열려 있는 경우가 있긴 있으니까요. 1차대전 당시 네덜란드가 그랬고, 2차대전엔 스웨덴이 그랬고.. 뭐 여긴 중립국을 통한 경우이긴 합니다만.

군함의 흑해 출입권 전권을 쥐고 있는 터키가 중개한 협정이라 러시아 입장에서도 맘대로 깰 수만은 없는 상황인데 어떻게 될 지 모르겠어요. 터키 해군이 개입을 할 수도 있겠습니다.