트럼프, FTA 개정 가능성 낮지만 관세가 한국에 더 큰 타격 줄 수도: 전문

[홀랜]

Ex-US diplomat outlines strategic dos and don’ts for Seoul in navigating Trump 2.0

Kurt Tong, managing partner at The Asia Group, a Washington-based strategic advisory firm, and a former US diplomat, poses for a photo in Gwanghwamun, Seoul, March 21. (Lee Sang-sub/The Korea Herald)

US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on industry-specific tariffs will be more consequential for South Korea than his looming "reciprocal" levies, with core industries like automobiles, semiconductors and steel squarely in the crosshairs, former US veteran diplomat Kurt Tong told The Korea Herald in Seoul.

Tong, managing partner at The Asia Group, a Washington-based strategic advisory firm, urged Seoul to adopt a calibrated response — whether through retaliation, selective acceptance, or constructive incentives such as investment pledges — depending on the extent and justification of tariffs, imposed outside the protections afforded by the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement.

Tong, however, saw only a slim chance of the Trump administration pursuing a renegotiation of the bilateral FTA, due to political and procedural burdens, particularly with a sharply divided US Congress — despite mounting concerns in Seoul that he would attempt it.

Trump's trade blitz, centered on two main axes of sectoral and reciprocal tariffs, has put South Korea on alert.

The country is scrambling to stay off a looming list of reciprocal tariffs, which are designed to mirror tariffs and non-tariff barriers faced by US exports. The list is set to be unveiled on April 2 — a date Trump has labeled as "Liberation Day."

"I actually think that for Korea, the sectoral tariffs are going to be more important than the reciprocal tariffs," Tong told The Korea Herald on March 21.

"Among the nations of the world, Korea has — if you think about the sectoral tariffs that have been proposed on automobiles, steel and aluminum, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals — Korea is a major exporter of three of those four items."

In 2024, the US accounted for 50.8 percent of Korea's $68.3 billion of auto exports, up from 47.1 percent a year earlier. Semiconductor exports contributed $141.9 billion to overall exports, with the US portion remaining at around 7.2 percent, according to the Korea International Trade Association.​

Korea exported $2.9 billion worth of steel to the United States, making it the fourth-largest exporter and accounting for approximately 9 percent of total US steel imports in 2024, according to the US International Trade Administration.

US President Donald Trump announces tariffs on auto imports in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on Wednesday. (AFP)

Ahead of the rollout of a range of reciprocal tariffs, Trump on Wednesday announced a plan to levy a 25 percent tariff on all imported automobiles.

The move follows through on his February pledge to tax big industries, including autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, "in the neighborhood of 25 percent." A 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum is set to take effect on March 12.

“The tariff rates that are being discussed are very high, significantly high rates," Tong underscored.

Tong emphasized the need for South Korea to formulate its counterstrategy based on how sectoral and reciprocal tariffs are calculated — and whether the tariff figures proposed by the US are reasonable or excessive.

"So, Korea also needs to have a strategy for those tariffs, whether it involves retaliation, whether it involves acceptance, whether it involves positive leverage response," Tong said.

"By positive leverage response, for example, the Korean government, Korean industry could work together to make promises about more investment in the United States."

Hyundai Motor Group on Monday announced a plan for $21 billion in new investments in the US through 2028 — marking its largest overseas investment — at the White House, drawing Trump's praise.

White House Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing Peter Navarro (left) and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer look on as US President Donald Trump delivers remarks on auto tariffs and other topics in the Oval Office at the White House on Wednesday. (Pool Photo via EPA)

FTA expected to stay intact

However, Tong saw little chance of the Trump administration seeking to amend the Korea-US FTA.

The agreement already went through changes in Trump's first term to incorporate US demands, including limiting Korean steel exports, relaxing US auto import requirements, and a 20-year extension of US tariffs on Korean trucks, as well as Korean demands.

"I actually would be surprised if the Trump administration decides to put more energy into an FTA revision or a new FTA, because they're skeptical about FTAs and the president, politically, wants fast and big victories," Tong said.

"The FTA approach takes a long time — it's very complicated. The public doesn't understand what's happening. The president then would have to — if it's a real FTA — get cooperation from Congress, which is complicated and difficult."

With Republicans maintaining their slim 53–47 Senate majority and only a five-seat House edge — one of the thinnest margins in modern history — deep partisan fault lines have brought Congress to a standstill, making complex trade negotiations politically fraught and unlikely to move.

"The US Congress is very skeptical on trade — but it's mostly skeptical about passing anything, any legislation, because of the sharp political divide between Republicans and Democrats," Tong said. "So I think it’s going to be more of a sector-by-sector type negotiation than an FTA negotiation."

Left to right): Hyundai Motor Group Executive Chairman Chung Euisun speaks as US President Donald Trump, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry and Hyundai Motor Company CEO Jaehoon Chang look on in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, on Monday. (AFP)

Dos and don’ts for Seoul

When asked what South Korea can do to successfully navigate challenges during the second Trump administration, Tong discussed "the dos and don'ts of the relationship," proposing a list of strategies for Seoul.

"On the 'do' side, it’s about dealing with the reality of the Trump administration. The good things to do are to be positive in setting the agenda, play to your strengths, emphasize those strengths, be direct and clear in communication — without being excessively confrontational — and seek to communicate directly with President Trump," Tong said.

"The don'ts are to assume that Trump and his team understand everything, to reference prior agreements as if those can't be changed, or to be quiet or passive and ask for forgiveness or to be spared."

Instead of approaching negotiations defensively, Tong said, Korea should present itself as a partner with leverage: "Going into the Trump conversation with 'Please don't hit me, I'm scared' means you’re going to get hit harder. Go in with: 'You shouldn’t hit me because you want something from me. Here are some possibilities, let's talk about it — person-to-person, man-to-man negotiation style.'"

Tong characterized the two sides' discussion as "more like a bottom-up, zero-based conversation," though he noted a hopeful prospect was in sight.

"I think the end result will be the relationship being fine and solid — because it's to the mutual benefit of the United States and Korea to have a strong relationship, to have a deep economic relationship — but that it has to be kind of explained from the beginning, not in a university lecturer kind of style, but rather in a negotiating style," Tong said.

"Trump's going to bring a lot of leverage to the relationship. Korea can also bring leverage — both positive leverage and negative leverage — to the conversation, and then frame it in a way that is like a negotiation, but also touches on the fundamentals."

US President Donald Trump attends a bilateral meeting with China's President Xi Jinping during the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. (File Photo - Reuters)

Will Trump attend APEC?

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, which South Korea is set to host from late October to early November this year, could be a key platforms for Trump to foster economic and business ties with Korea, and meet with leaders in the Indo-Pacific region, including Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

"I don't expect the US to use APEC for any big policy moves. But still, APEC could be useful to the US. The US could be interested in it for specific topics, like if there's a good discussion on AI and AI rules at APEC, the US will participate," Tong said.

"I don’t think President Trump is personally interested in that. He has more of a big-picture approach."

Tong suggested Trump would attend for mainly two reasons, even though his bilateral, transactional style runs against APEC's core mission of free and open trade in the region.

"One is because Korea is an important country, and it could be part of his strategy for negotiating with Korea to build a stronger economic relationship that fits more with the America First approach — and that’s attractive to the president," Tong said.

"And the other is, it's a venue for conducting the China negotiations — because China is an active member in APEC, and President Xi is almost certainly going to come because China is hosting APEC in 2026."

Tong further explained that Trump's participation in APEC could be influenced by Russian President Vladimir Putin's potential participation, which is currently prohibited, and by North Korea's actions, which aim to raise the country's priority in US foreign policy.

“If Trump's strategy for a ceasefire and armistice in Ukraine is successful — I don’t know whether it will be, as I think it's proving more difficult than he expected — but if it is successful, then maybe he could meet Vladimir Putin at APEC as well," Tong said.

"So, there's also a North Korea policy angle to visiting South Korea. I don't think that's a high priority for the United States, but North Korea might try and make it a priority by misbehaving sometime this year. We'll see what their strategy is, whether they want to poke their head up and start messing around again or not. So, I expect he'll come, and a lot of these themes will be happening."

On North Korea, Tong said renewed summit diplomacy is unlikely under the second Trump administration — unless Pyongyang takes the initiative.

"Right now I see no signs of the US proactively reaching out to North Korea and making them a high priority," he said, adding that Trump’s door to communication remains technically open — "he might send them a letter."

Tong emphasized that Trump's past efforts to strike a "grand bargain" with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un failed because Kim was unwilling to fully abandon his nuclear program in exchange for a promising future — including economic growth and diplomatic recognition.

Given Kim's enduring position, Trump has little incentive to reengage, Tong said.

"He (Trump) is not going to put a lot of energy into it. I think if there's going to be a Trump-Kim dance, Kim's going to have to make the first move," Tong said. "It does take two to dance, but somebody’s got to ask the other one out, and I don’t think it’s going to be Trump."

Who is Kurt Tong?

Kurt Tong, managing partner at the Asia Group, is a veteran US diplomat with three decades of experience in foreign policy and economic diplomacy. He held multiple senior positions at the State Department, including consul general and chief of mission in Hong Kong and Macau, and principal deputy assistant secretary for economic and business affairs from 2014 to 2016. From 2011 to 2014, he served as deputy chief of mission and chargé d’affaires at the US Embassy in Tokyo.

In 2011, Tong was appointed US ambassador for APEC, leading the US chairmanship. Earlier in his career, he served as director of Korean affairs at the State Department, where he played a key role in the six-party talks and in negotiations to secure the release of Americans detained in North Korea. From 2006 to 2008, as director for Asian economic affairs at the White House National Security Council, he was one of the principal architects of both the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement.

dagyumji@heraldcorp.com