BOK lowers next year's growth forecast to 2.2% 한국은행, 내년 경제성장율 2.2%로 하향전망

[김우정]

어제 한은이 금융통화위원회에서 기준금리 5차례 연속 동결했습니다.
내년경제성장전망은 기존의 2.3%에서 2.2%로 하향조정 했습니다.
중국의 부동산위기로 인한 경기침체로 인한 한국의 수출부진이 큰 요인입니다.
이창용 한은총재는 기준금리의 추가인상 가능성도 열어놓고 있습니다.
 
BOK lowers next year's growth forecast to 2.2%
한국은행, 내년 경제성장율 2.2%로 하향전망

By Yi Whan-woo 이환우 기자
Posted : 2023-08-24 16:39 Updated : 2023-08-24 20:06
Korea Times

Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Rhee Chang-yong presides over a monetary policy board meeting at the BOK headquarters in central Seoul, Thursday. Joint Press Corps 목요일, 이창용 한국은행총재가 서울 중심에 있는 한국은행에서 금융통화위원회를 주재하고 있다. 합동기자단

Key interest rate kept steady at 3.5% for 5th straight meeting
기준금리 5회연속 3.5% 유지

The Bank of Korea (BOK) lowered its growth forecast for Korea next year to 2.2 percent, Thursday, down from a previous forecast of 2.3 percent made in May.
한국은행은 목요일 한국의 내년 성장률 전망치를 5월의 2.3퍼센트에서 2.2퍼센트로 낮췄다.

This is the BOK's second straight downward revision of the country's 2024 outlook, which was estimated at 2.4 percent in February.
한국은행이 지난 2월 2.4%로 전망했던 2024년전망을 두번 연속 하향 조정한 것이다.

The central bank, meanwhile, kept the key interest rate steady at 3.5 percent for the fifth straight time due to rising economic woes amid soaring household debt.
반면 한은은 가계부채가 급증하는 가운데 경기침체가 가중되면서 기준금리를 5회 연속 3.5%로 유지했다.

In particular, the revised outlook for next year comes as trade-reliant Korea's path to economic recovery remains bleaker due to China's real estate crisis, which has morphed into unprecedented economic problems recently.
특히, 내년 전망 수정은 무역의존도가 높은 한국이 최근 전례없는 경제 문제로 변한 중국의 부동산 위기로 인해 경제 회복의 길이 여전히 어둡기 때문에 나온 것이다.

"We revised down the growth forecast as the possibility is low of China making a quick recovery," BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong said during a press conference.
이창용 한국은행 총재는 기자회견에서 "중국이 빠른 회복세를 보일 가능성이 낮기 때문에 성장률 전망치를 하향 조정했다"고 말했다.

However, the BOK kept the country's growth outlook for this year unchanged at 1.4 percent, which is the same as the outlook of the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and slightly lower than the OECD's prediction of 1.5 percent.
그러나, 한국은행은 기획재정부, 국제통화기금의 전망과 같고 OECD의 예상인 1.5 퍼센트보다 약간 낮은 1.4 퍼센트로 올해의 기존 성장전망을 바꾸지 않았다.

The BOK chief explained that the projected 1.4 percent growth figure is "certainly low but should not be perceived too pessimistically, considering that the global economy is undergoing a similar path this year."
한국은행 총재는 예상되는 1.4 퍼센트의 성장률은 "확실히 낮지만 올해 세계 경제가 비슷한 길을 걷고 있다는 것을 고려할 때 너무 비관적으로 인식되어서는 안 된다"고 설명했다.

The growth forecast was announced on the sidelines of the BOK's monetary policy board meeting, where the key interest rate was kept steady at 3.5 percent for the fifth straight time.
성장률 전망은 기준금리가 5회 연속 3.5%로 유지된 한국은행의 금융통화위원회와 별도로 발표되었다.

The BOK said it considered both China's economic crisis as well as upward pressure on its base rate.
한국은행은 중국의 경제위기뿐만 아니라 기준금리에 대한 상승 압력도 고려했다고 말했다.

Noticeably, the pressure comes from household debt that reached an all-time high of 1,068.1 trillion won ($807 billion) in July and the weakening Korean won, which breached the 1,340 level per dollar, in recent weeks.
눈에 띄는 것은, 7월에 사상 최고치인 1,068조 1천억원(8,070억 달러)에 달했던 가계부채와 최근 몇 주 동안 달러당 1,340선을 돌파한 원화약세 때문이다.

The BOK said it does not want exports, private spending and investments to be hobbled by its monetary policy in balancing out growth and inflation.
한국은행은 수출, 민간소비, 투자가 성장과 인플레이션의 균형을 맞추기 위해 통화정책에 의해 방해받는 것을 원하지 않는다고 말했다.

It added that the inflation forecast for this year remains unchanged at 3.5 percent, while the monthly inflation rate will "pick up again from August and fluctuate at around 3 percent until the end of the year."
또 올해 물가상승률 전망치는 3.5%로 변동이 없는 반면 월간 물가상승률은 "8월부터 다시 상승해 연말까지 3% 안팎에서 변동할 것"이라고 덧붙였다.

"The board will continue to conduct monetary policy in order to stabilize consumer price inflation at the target level over the medium-term horizon as it monitors economic growth, while paying attention to financial stability," it added.
"이사회는 금융 안정성에 주목하면서 경제성장을 모니터링하면서 중기적으로 소비자 물가상승률을 목표수준으로 안정시키기 위해 통화 정책을 지속적으로 수행할 것이다." 라고 덧붙였다.

Market observers assessed the rate freeze was "made in a timely manner" for the BOK to respond after watching U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is likely to comment on the U.S. rate policy during the Fed-hosted summer gathering in Jackson Hole, Friday.
시장 관측통들은 금요일 잭슨홀에서 열린 연준 주최 여름회의에서 미국의 금리정책에 대해 언급할 가능성이 높은 제롬 파월 미국 연방준비제도 이사회 의장을 지켜본 후 금리동결이 "시의적절하게" 이루어졌다고 평가했다.

Meanwhile, Rhee underlined that the BOK is open to additional hikes, as he warned against an increase in mortgage loans, which led to an all-time high household debt situation in July.
한편, 이총재는 7월에 사상 최고의 가계부채상황을 초래한 주택담보 대출의 증가에 대해 경고하면서 한국은행이 추가적인 인상에 대해 열려 있다고 강조했다.

"All monetary board policy members support the idea of a possible base rate at 3.75 percent," he said.
"모든 금융통화위원회 정책위원들은 3.75%의 가능한 기준금리에 대한 생각을 지지한다." 라고 그가 말했다.

He added that the "chance will be slim" for the rate to be lowered to a range of 1 to 2 percent as in the pre-pandemic era and that home buyers should be careful with their repayment capabilities when taking out mortgage loans.
그는 이어 "팬데믹 이전처럼 금리가 1~2%대로 낮아질 가능성은 희박할 것"이라며 주택구입자들이 주택담보대출을 받을 때 상환능력을 주의해야 한다고 덧붙였다.

#BankofKorea(BOK)한국은행 #Growthforecast(성장전망) #Keyinterestrate(기준 금리) #Economiccrisis(경제위기) #Householddebt(가계부채) #China'srealestate crisis(중국부동산위기) #Monetary policy(통화정책) #Inflationforecast(인플레이션 전망) #Financialstability(금융안정성) #U.S.FederalReserve미국연방준비제도(미국의 중앙은행) #Mortgageloans(주택담보대출)