이번주 시사영어 강의 기사 : 트럼프와 인플레이션 문제

[조국현]

이번 주에는

요즘 상승세를 타고 있는 트럼프가 대통령에 재선이 되었을 때

미국 인플레이션이 심화될 것이라는 내용을 가지고

영어훈련하겠습니다.

미국 경제에 대한 지식을 얻으시고

글쓴이의 논리를 감상하시죠.

이번 주에도 상당히 수준높은 글이기 때문에 이해가 쉽지 않은 면도 있지만,

이런 글을 고민하다 보면 독해 수준이 상당히 높아질 것을 기대하시죠.

[빨간색 문장들은 고난도 문장입니다. 강의를 듣기 전에 먼저 고민해 보셔야 독해 두뇌가 발달합니다]

[영어훈련 하면서 글쓴이의 논리를 감상하시면, 여러분의 논리력도 강해집니다]

The threat of Trumpflation and a Fed war

Inflation in the US is lower than it was a year ago, and substantial economic weakness elsewhere is driving other central banks toward interest-rate cuts. With little empirical basis to believe that US monetary policy is not restrictive, I continue to believe that in 18 months, the US Federal Reserve will have wished that it had started cutting rates in January 2024.

If I am right, the US is not headed for a soft-landing path; it is already on the runway, albeit with a monetary-policy rudder steering sharply toward contraction, rather than being held in a straight-ahead neutral position. Yet many commentators and Fed officials continue to believe that interest rates should remain at their relatively high levels, because they are fixated on the 1977-79 period, when a near-stabilized inflation rate spiraled out of control.

Back then, the Carter administration’s nominal GDP forecast had been dead-on, real growth came in two percentage points low, and inflation came in two percentage points high. Then came the Iranian Revolution and the second major oil-price spike of the decade, leading ultimately to the “neoliberal turn,” the Volcker disinflation (when the Fed hiked rates to 20 percent), and Latin America’s “lost decade.” To those who worry that history will rhyme, keeping interest rates too high for too long is a risk worth taking.

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