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Population decline vs hungry kids
Humanity is about to turn a major population corner, according to a new estimate. A recent article in the Lancet predicts that by 2030, we’ll no longer be reproducing fast enough to replace ourselves.
We aren’t about to go extinct, but this is an unexpected trajectory. As recently as 2017, the United Nations predicted human numbers wouldn’t peak until 2100 when we’d reach more than 11 billion people. According to the new estimate, our numbers could rise from the current 8.1 billion to a maximum of just 9.5 billion before declining by the early 2060s.
While a catastrophic population explosion used to seem inevitable, women’s increasing levels of education and reproductive freedom have staved off some of the worst predictions of the 20th century. That’s actually something to celebrate: We’re not about to suffer a population overshoot and run out of food, as sometimes happens to animals in the wild -- and as was predicted in the 1968 book, "The Population Bomb."
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