이번주 시사영어 강의 기사 : 중국의 대만 침공 임박?

[조국현]

이번 주에는

중국의 대만 침공이 과연 가능할까에 대한 내용을 가지고 영어훈련하겠습니다.

2027년 시진핑 중국 주석의 3차 임기 종료를 앞두고,

4차 임기를 위해 뭔가 업적이 필요한 시진핑,

평소 소신인 중국 통일을 과연이 밀어붙일지 큰 우려가 쏠리고 있습니다.

아울러, 글쓴이의 현란한 글솜씨도 저와 함께 감상하시죠.

[빨간색 부분은 강의 듣기 전에 먼저 고민해 보세요. 영어 고수가 되기 위한 훈련입니다]

[영어훈련 하면서 글쓴이의 논리를 감상하시면, 여러분의 논리력도 강해집니다]

China Is Ready to Blockade Taiwan. Here’s How.

Beijing’s armed forces have bulked up and practiced isolating the island

By Austin Ramzy

China’s armed forces are more ready than ever to surround the self-ruled island of Taiwan, cut it off from the world and try to squeeze it into submission.

A Chinese blockade of Taiwan would be an act of war that sparks a global crisis. It would provoke a military response by Taiwan, force President Trump to decide whether the U.S. military should help defend the island, disrupt global trade and impel European nations to impose punishing sanctions on Beijing.

But the Chinese military, empowered by a decadeslong buildup and ordered by leader Xi Jinping to rapidly modernize by 2027, already has demonstrated what it can do. In increasingly complex exercises, Chinese forces have encircled Taiwan and simulated blockades.

The more that China prepares, the greater the risk that Beijing decides to shift without notice from drills to war. China claims Taiwan as its own territory and doesn’t rule out the use of force to seize it.

A blockade is one of Xi’s most powerful military options—short of an invasion, a steep challenge for the not-yet-battle-tested Chinese military—to induce the island to surrender to Beijing’s authority. 

China has sizable means of striking Taiwan available: Its air force operates around 1,900 jet fighters and 500 bombers, while its rocket force has more than 3,000 missiles capable of reaching Taiwan, according to the Pentagon. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry this week identified drone warfare in particular as an area of growing Chinese capacity and Taiwanese concern.

In blockade scenarios drawn up by the U.S., Taiwan and others, when China’s air assault begins, its navy—the world’s largest, with more than 370 vessels at its disposal—is already in motion.

The size of the fleet reflects a long growth spurt that hasn’t ended. China is the world’s top shipbuilder by a wide margin, and that includes warships for its growing navy. In 2000, the U.S. had more warships, but China surpassed the U.S. two decades later. China is projected to have 425 warships by 2030, outnumbering the U.S. fleet by more than one-third, according to the Congressional Research Service.

While China’s aircraft carriers are seen as less capable than their American counterparts, China is working to catch up. After adding its second carrier in 2019, China is expected to put a third into service this year.

China’s naval buildup also has enhanced its geographical reach. In December exercises, China deployed more than 90 naval ships and coast guard vessels accompanied by several thousand personnel, Taiwanese officials said. Vessels turned up around Taiwan, in the waters surrounding Japan and South Korea, and in the South China Sea.

Taiwan relies on imports for 96% of its power, through foreign oil, coal and natural gas. A blockaded island would have to rely on stockpiled energy imports, submit to Beijing, or go dark. The island imports around 70% of its food supply, another security gap.

With a blockade, China could probe Taiwan’s defenses while trying to suffocate its economy and undermine its determination to resist.

Concerns about China turning drills around Taiwan into an actual attack have unnerved the island’s government and military officials. Taiwan’s military held a five-day drill ending Friday designed to immediately prepare for war, and a coming exercise will be based on the premise that China plans to invade in 2027—the year that Xi set as a goal for invasion readiness, in the view of some Western intelligence officials.

Most military experts agree that China’s armed forces aren’t ready for an amphibious invasion across the 110-mile-wide Taiwan Strait. The seas are often rough and Taiwan’s cliffs, mud flats and built-up coastlines make it hard for ships to land. Taiwan’s antiship missile systems, some of them acquired from the U.S., also represent a deterrent. 

The U.S. president’s stance on Taiwan likely plays the most crucial role in Beijing’s calculation about whether to take action, said Huang Chung-ting, a Taipei-based defense analyst at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a think tank backed by the Taiwanese military.

The prospect of a U.S. military response remains a wild card. Trump’s commitment to defending the island is uncertain, and his recent suspension of U.S. support for Ukraine caused a rupture with Europe, diminishing the threat of unity on sanctions.

“Our worst nightmare scenario involving a blockade actually comes from American isolationism—where the U.S. decides to completely step away from Taiwan Strait issues,” said Huang.