(Sep 23, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

[kyonmanchung]

(Sep 23, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

안녕하세요? Happy Thanksgiving holidays를 기원합니다.

미국과 중국이 내일부터 각각 추가 관세를 부과할 뿐 아니라 내주 예정된 관세 협상은 중국이 취소해 버리는 등 관세전쟁이 확산되고 있습니다. 일본에서는 암호화폐 hacking도난 사건이 또 발생하였습니다.

1. Tariff Deadline Nears as U.S.-China Trade Dialogue Breaks Down, Bloomberg News

- 미국과 중국은 24일(월)부터 상대국 수입품에 대해 각각 추가 관세를 부과합니다.

미국의 경우 기존의 $50bn 부과 대상에 더해, 새로 $200bn 상당의 중국산 수입품에 대해 월요일 12시부터 10%(내년 1월1일부터는 25%) 추가 관세를 부과하게 됨(합계 $250bn은 2017년 중국산 수입액의 절반 해당)

중국의 경우 기존의 $50bn 관세부과 대상에 더해, 추가로 $110bn 규모의 미국산 수입품에 대해 5% or 10%의 관세를 부과하게 됨(합계 $160bn은 2017년 미국산 수입액의 70% 해당)

이번 중국의 관세부과 대상은 전번의 대두 등 소비재 및 중간재 중심에서 자본재(capital goods)가 많이 포함된 것이 특징.

한편 22일(토) 중국은 내주 개최 예정이던 무역협상을 전격 취소하였는데, 무역분쟁에 더해 전일(목) 미 국무성이 러시아제 무기(전투기+대공미사일)를 수입한 중국 방위청에 대해 제재를 가한 것도 협상 취소의 원인이 됨(중국은 미국의 중간선거 때까지는 협상에 임하지 않을 것으로 보임)

Angriest man Trump는 중국이 보복 관세에 나서면 추가로 $267bn 규모의 중국산에 대해 관세 부과하겠다고 공언한 바 있으므로, 이럴 경우 중국산 수입품 전부에 대해 추가 관세를 부과하는 것임

현재 중국이 보복 관세를 부과하지 않고 있는 품목은 planes, computer chips, and pharmaceuticals 등 중국이 어쩔 수 없이 수입하는 것들로서 금액이 큼. 만약 관세전쟁이 확산되면 중국은 이들의 수입선을 변경할 가능성이 큼.

대두(soybean)의 경우 중국의 수입선 변경 효과가 이미 나타남. 미국산 대두 선물가격이 크게 하락하는 반면, 아르헨티나 등 남미산 대두의 선물가격은 급등. (지금 미국은 대두 수확기이고 남미는 파종 시기 -> 농부들 내년 파종 규모에 대해 갈등)

<생각>

많은 분들이 미-중간 무역분쟁으로 중국의 손해가 더 커서 결국 중국경제가 크게 악화될 것으로 봄. 그러나 저는 중장기적으로 미국 경제가 더 손해보고, 현 goldilocks economy가 downturn하며, 결국 $화의 기축통화 지위도 손상될 것으로 봄  

이유는 America First dogma에 빠져 World’s angriest man이 된 Trump의 판단과 달리, 세계경제의 supply-chain hegemony와 거대 소비시장을 갖고 있으며, 정부 통제가 효율적인 중국이 장기전에서 유리할 것이기 때문임.

2. Japan hit by another cryptocurrency heist, $60 million stolen, Reuters

- 지난 20일(목) 일본의 암호화폐회사인 “Tech Bureau Corp”(Zaif exchange 운영)가 $60m 규모의 digital currencies(Bitcoin, Monacoin and Bitcoin Cash)를 hacking으로 도둑 맞았다고 발표했습니다.

이중 1/3이 자사 소유, 2/3는 고객 소유로 회사는 고객 소유 분을 보상할 예정. Hacker는 14일 2시간 동안 서브에 침입하였고, 회사는 17일에야 문제점을 발견하고 당국에 신고..

일본에서는 지난 1월 암호화페 거래소 Coincheck Inc.가 $530m어치의 암호화폐를 해킹 도둑 맞은 이래 감독당국의 철저한 감독과 암호화폐 회사들의 노력으로 암호화폐 거래가 많이 안정화 되었다고 평가 받았는데 이번 도난사고 발생으로 체면도 구기고, 암호화폐 거래의 위험성에 대해 다시 경종울 울림

한편 동사는 자스닥 상장사인 Fisco Ltd로부터 5bn yen ($44.59m)을 투자 받고 대신 경영권을 이양하기로 함

일본 금융감독청은 연이은 해킹사고에도 불구, “We have no intention to curb the crypto industry excessively,”라고 하네요(대체로 스위스와 일본이 암호화폐에 호의적)

정견만 드림

1. Tariff Deadline Nears as U.S.-China Trade Dialogue Breaks Down, Bloomberg News

‎2018‎년 ‎9월‎ ‎23‎일‎ ‎오전‎ ‎1‎:‎01

• U.S. and China set to impose new levies on each other Monday
• U.S. already threatening further escalation of trade war

The U.S. and China are hours away from a new round of tariffs on each other’s goods, with no improvement in relations between the two rivals in sight.

In a significant escalation, $200 billion of Chinese products will be subject to tariffs from 12:00 a.m. Washington time on Monday, on top of the $50 billion in goods already slapped with tariffs actions in the year.

The combined $250 billion in products facing levies is almost half the value of imports from China last year. Meanwhile, $110 billion of goods from the U.S. will become subject to Chinese tariffs around the same time, or about 70 percent of the value of goods it bought from America in 2017.

China on Saturday called off trade talks with U.S. officials that had been planned for next week amid the tariff threats. U.S. State Department’s sanctions against China’s defense agency and its director on Thursday contributed to the decision, according to people familiar with the situation. There’s a growing consensus in Beijing that substantive talks will only be possible with the Trump administration after U.S. mid-term elections in November, the people said.

China Is Said to Cancel Trade Talks as New U.S. Tariffs Loom

The next $267-billion-dollar question is, will President Donald Trump follow up with additional tariffs covering that amount of Chinese goods in the meantime, as he threatened to do if China retaliated to his $200 billion salvo. That would effectively cover all the products that the U.S. imports from China, again ratcheting up a conflict that could undermine the global expansion and upend the supply chains of many multinational companies.

“We don’t want to, but we probably will have no choice,” Trump said of the tariff escalation at the Oval Office last week. “We’re making a lot of headway with China.”

Even with jitters about the escalating trade war, Trump has a record U.S. stock market to point to in support of his policies. “New Economic Records being set on a daily basis - and it is not by accident!” the president said Saturday on Twitter.

The following analysis shows in charts how the tariff war has developed and what could still be to come.

Trump’s Tariff Plans

The U.S. products that China has targeted for retaliation have changed over time, shifting from cars and agricultural commodities to industrial goods.

See here for full list of all goods China will tariff

China Focuses More on Industrial Goods Now

Targets of Chinese tariffs on U.S. exports

In the initial round, soybeans and most of China’s imports of U.S. cars were hit.

Round 1: Farmers and Car Companies Hit

Top 10 items hit in the first round of Chinese tariffs

Source: PIIE

Note: Includes goods from various tariff codes, but may not be exhaustive for the wider category.

In the second round, the focus has widened and shifted more to capital goods and other imports, raising the cost for industrial companies. That is partly because many of the goods traded in large volumes with the U.S. were already covered by the first round, so it’s getting harder to find things to impose new tariffs on.

That can be seen in the number of goods affected. In round one there were 659 U.S. imports hit with the added 25 percent tariff, while this time there are 5,207 individual items on which China plans to impose a 5 percent or 10 percent levy.

Round 2: Targets More Varied This Time

Top 10 items hit in the second round of Chinese tariffs

Source: PIIE

Note: Includes goods from various tariff codes, but may not be exhaustive for the wider category.

But there are still tens of billions of dollars of U.S. goods that have not been hit with extra import taxes yet -- many in areas where China is unable to compete with western countries, such as planes, computer chips, and pharmaceuticals.

If there’s continued escalation, what happens with those goods, which China has to import from somewhere, will be closely watched. Even as companies like aircraft maker Boeing Co. bank on the growing Chinese market, tariffs, or the threat of them, could cause Chinese companies and consumers to spend less on U.S. goods and more on substitutes from home, Japan, the European Union, or elsewhere.

Energy Impact

There are already signs of that happening in energy markets. This round of tariffs will include levies on U.S. liquefied natural gas, and that’s possibly caused one ship to change course from China to South Korea to avoid the penalty.

In the U.S., companies complain that the time frame between the announcement of tariffs and their implementation of the tariffs on thousands of products is too short to arrange alternatives. And a protracted trade war will fuel inflation in the U.S., particularly as tariffs are added to categories such as furniture, apparel and technology, according to analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Tidal Wave

“Retailers are already facing a tidal wave of tariffs. This latest tranche is a tsunami,” said Hun Quach, vice president of international trade for the Retail Industry Leaders Association, a trade group based in Arlington, Virginia. “With thousands of consumer products included, little warning, and no time to prepare, businesses are left scrambling.”

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told CNBC on Sept. 18. that it was up to the Chinese whether or when the two sides will meet, and that the end goal was not to have tariffs in place but for China to “resolve fundamental issues.”

“It’s a little disappointing that the earlier tariffs haven’t resulted in more constructive dialogue, but we hope these will,” Ross said.

Asked about the potential for U.S. consumers to face higher prices when tariffs kick in, Ross said the levies are spread over such a wide range of goods that “nobody is going to actually notice it at the end of the day.”

1-2. China Calls Off Trade Talks, Won’t Go to Washington Until After Mid-Terms

Bloomberg News

‎2018‎년 ‎9월‎ ‎22‎일‎ ‎오후‎ ‎2‎:‎39 Updated on ‎2018‎년 ‎9월‎ ‎22‎일‎ ‎오후‎ ‎10‎:‎32

• Move follows U.S. state department sanctions on defense agency
• Trump is prepared for short-term pain from taking on China

China has scrapped planned trade talks with the U.S. and is unlikely to sit down with Washington until after November’s mid-term elections, according to people familiar with the situation.

The decision to call off a planned delegation next week comes as President Donald Trump signals he’s prepared for short-term pain for the U.S. economy by ramping up the trade war, in the pursuit of what he sees as the long-term gains from taking on China.

The White House had no immediate response to China’s latest move. Yet hours before the Wall Street Journal first reported that Beijing had scrapped plans to send Vice-Premier Liu He and a mid-level delegation to Washington, a senior U.S. official told reporters that the president believes inaction on China will ultimately leave the economy and consumers worse off.

In addition to new tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods set to go into effect Sept. 24, the U.S. State Department sanctions against China’s defense agency and its director on Thursday contributed to the ultimate decision to cancel the talks, the people said.

The Long Run

“It would be ‘asking for an insult,’ if China went ahead with trade talks after the US announced new tariffs and sanctions,” Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, said Saturday. “In the long run, there will be talks, because the trade war won’t last for thousands of years.”

In his push for what he calls a level playing field in dealing with China, Trump slapped the new tariffs on imports from China and threatened more if Beijing retaliated. On Aug. 18, China said it would impose levies on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods effective Sept. 24.

The new tariffs brought “new uncertainties” to China-U.S. negotiations, Gao Feng, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Commerce said, when answering a question at a press conference on Thursday on whether the countries would have a new round of trade talks. He used exactly the same wording the ministry used in an earlier statement.

Companies Worried

The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance didn’t respond to faxes inquiring about the matter on Saturday.

U.S. industry has widely pushed back against the Trump administration’s use of tariffs to force changes to China’s economy, and companies from Walmart Inc. to Gap Inc. and Samsonite International SA have said they’re prepared to raise prices if the new tariffs bite into their business.

Here’s Where Tariffs on $260 Billion of Goods Are Biting in U.S.

Trump’s biggest strike yet in a growing trade fight between the world’s biggest economies will see a 10 percent duty applied to $200 billion of Chinese imports, which may rise to 25 percent in 2019. He’s threatened duties on a further $267 billion of made-in-China goods, which would hit almost all other consumer products including mobile phones, shoes and clothes.

The latest round of duties comes on top of a 25 percent tariff already imposed on about $50 billion in Chinese goods, which spurred counter-tariffs from Beijing.

Trump’s Stand

Trump continued to hit out at China late this week, signaling the trade war won’t end any time soon. “It’s time to take a stand on China,” he said in an interview Thursday with Fox News. “We have no choice. It’s been a long time. They’re hurting us.”

“The new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, mostly consumer-oriented, will depress spending and hurt the retail sector beginning in 2019,” Seema Shah and Danielle McIntee, analysts with Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote in a note on Friday. “Lower-income families, already pinching pennies, are most exposed, given the likelihood of tariff-related price increases on everyday items.”

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross earlier this week said the tariffs are spread over such a wide range of goods that Americans should not notice price increases.

“We were trying to do things that were least intrusive on the consumer,” Ross said on CNBC on Tuesday. “We really went item-by-item trying to figure out what would accomplish the punitive purpose on China and yet with the least disruption in the U.S.”

1-3.Trump Trade War Is Dividing Farming World as China Demand Shifts, Bloomberg

By Shruti Singh, and Tatiana Freitas

‎2018‎년 ‎9월‎ ‎22‎일‎ ‎오전‎ ‎8‎:‎48 Updated on ‎2018‎년 ‎9월‎ ‎22‎일‎ ‎오후‎ ‎6‎:‎00

• Premiums in Brazil, Argentina surge amid Chinese demand
• U.S. crushers benefit from cheap supply as Brazilians squeezed

Soybeans have become something of a poster child for the U.S.-China trade war, with everyone from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to President Donald Trump opining on the humble oilseed. But the tariffs are also sparking some little-known consequences.

One of the biggest impacts of China’s 25 percent duties against American soy shipments is the divergence of price trends between the U.S. and rival exporters in South America. With a volatile trade environment, no one is sure how long that trend will last. Uncertainty for farmers is ramping up as growers in the Northern Hemisphere are starting to collect this year’s massive crop, while those in the south are beginning to think about planting their next one.

Here’s a breakdown of what’s happening across the two continents:

Argentina

Demand from China, which is looking for soybeans from everywhere but the U.S., has already driven up premiums for shipments from Brazil. Now, as those exportable supplies start to run out, it’s Argentina’s turn in the spotlight.

At some river terminals in Argentina, the premium for soybeans for November shipment has surged to more than $2.20 a bushel over benchmark futures this month, up from 30 cents a year ago, according to Commodity 3 data compiled by Bloomberg News. With the enticing outlook for export profits, the country has taken the rare step of importing the oilseed to meet domestic demand, while shipping its own crop over to China. The price is also climbing after drought earlier this year hurt yields.

Tariffs Spur Soy Merry-Go-Round as China Turns to Argentina

Brazil

Meanwhile in Brazil, the soy rally that drove premiums up more than 200 percent in some cases is starting to squeeze margins for domestic processors. Raw beans are typically crushed into a meal that is used in animal feed, and that also creates cooking oil as a byproduct. The country’s mills are having to compete with exporters for the few supplies left after the 2017-2018 season.

That’s unusual for this time of year, when soy shipping tends to slow, said Lucilio Rogerio Alves, an analyst at Cepea, the University of Sao Paulo research arm. In Rio Grande do Sul state, crushers are working at low capacity, and in some cases, margins have turned negative, according to Mario Sperotto, a broker at Agrisoy Commodities. The next crop isn’t gathered until the beginning of next year, leaving little relief in sight for now.

"If the trade war talks continue, we may have even lower margins next season," said Daniel Furlan Amaral, economics manager at Brazil’s soy processors group Abiove.

U.S.

With China snubbing American shipments, U.S. soy prices are tumbling. In many areas, cash spreads against futures have turned negative. For spot soybean supplies delivered to U.S. Gulf, the differential on Friday fell to discount of 7 cents a bushel, government data show

The slump for domestic prices means profits for crushers is one of the brighter spots in the agriculture industry.

The margin -- or spread between the value of the meal and oil minus the cost of soybeans -- for most of 2018 has been trending at seasonal highs that have been the most profitable since at least 2006, according to CME Group data compiled by Bloomberg.

Currently, the crush margin is the highest for this time of year in more than a decade.

2. Japan hit by another cryptocurrency heist, $60 million stolen, Reuters

Taiga Uranaka

September 20, 2018 / 9:25 AM / 2 days ago

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese cryptocurrency firm Tech Bureau Corp said about $60 million in digital currencies were stolen from its exchange, highlighting the industry’s vulnerability despite recent efforts by authorities to make it more secure

Tech Bureau, which had already been slapped with two business improvement orders by regulators this year, said its Zaif exchange was hacked over a two-hour period on Sept. 14. It detected server problems on Sept. 17, confirmed the hack the following day, and notified authorities, the exchange said on Thursday.

Following the hack, Tech Bureau said it had agreed with JASDAQ-listed Fisco Ltd (3807.T) to receive a 5 billion yen ($44.59 million) investment in exchange for majority ownership. The proceeds from the investment would be used to replace the digital currencies stolen from client accounts.

However, Fisco said in a statement the 5 billion yen in “financial assistance” may change in value if the amount affected by the heist changes upon further investigation.

Documents seen by Reuters on Thursday showed Japan’s Financial Services Agency would conduct emergency checks on cryptocurrency exchange operators’ management of customer assets, following the theft. FSA officials were not immediately available for comment.

Japan’s crypto exchanges have been under close regulatory scrutiny after the theft of $530 million in digital coins at Tokyo-based cryptocurrency exchange Coincheck Inc. in January. Coincheck has since been acquired by Japanese online brokerage Monex Group Inc (8698.T).

In the industry-wide check that followed the Coincheck theft, FSA said it found sloppy management at many exchanges, including the lack of proper safeguards for client assets and basic anti-money laundering measures.

In the Tech Bureau theft, virtual currencies worth about 6.7 billion yen ($59.67 million), including Bitcoin, Monacoin and Bitcoin Cash, were stolen from the exchange’s “hot wallet”. About 2.2 billion yen worth of the stolen currency was its own while the remaining 4.5 billion yen belonged to customers, it said.

Hot wallets are connected to the internet. Industry experts consider them to be more vulnerable to hacks than “cold wallets”, which are not connected to the internet.

The latest hack is likely to affect the FSA’s ongoing regulatory review of the industry. Other countries are also grappling with how to regulate crypto market.

Japan last year became the first country to regulate cryptocurrency exchanges, as it encourages technological innovation while ensuring consumer protection. Exchanges have to register with FSA and required reporting and other responsibilities.

FSA said last week more than 160 entities have expressed interest in entering the cryptocurrency exchange business but FSA has not issued any approval since December last year.

Toshihide Endo, FSA commissioner told Reuters in an interview last month that the agency is trying to strike a balance between safeguarding clients and technological innovation.

“We have no intention to curb (the crypto industry) excessively,” he said. “We would like to see it grow under appropriate regulation.”

($1 = 112.1400 yen)

[도드람]

중국이 미국 보다 나을가?? 기축 통화에 관한 건 미국이 절대 양보 없을거란 가설...

[kyonmanchung]

기축총화를 정하는 규정은 없고, globally most used currency가 기축통화가 된다고 보면. 언젠가는 위엔화가 될 가능성이 있다고 봅니다. 최근 세계무역 중 중국의 비중이 커지고 있으므로, 중국 위엔화로 결제하는 비중이 확대 되는 중인데, 특히 원유 등 최다 에너지 수입국인 중국은 상해에 원유거래소를 별도 설치했는데( NYMEX, CME와 경쟁), 당연히 수입국인 중국의 입장이 반영되겠죠. 즉 국제교역에서 중국 위엔화가 많이 쓰이게 된 것이지요. 이런 추세는 확산될 거라고 생각합니다