대만의 QDR 공개

[위종민]

Taiwan's Quadrennial Defense Review - USNI News (USNI) 

대만의 4년기 국방 총검토, QDR이 공개됐네요. 

1. 지역 현황 

• 인도태평양 지역의 안정을 위해 미국은 지역내 동맹국과의 연계를 강화하고 있음. 중국은 지역의 지배권을 확보하기 위해 시도하고 있으며, 중국의 군사적 팽창으로 역내 불안정이 심화됨
• 교착상태에 빠진 한반도 비핵화와 동중국해, 남중국해 도서들의 영유권 분쟁이 역내 불안정 요소
• 중국은 군사력을 증강시키는 동시에 대만침공을 준비중이고, 협박 및 항공/해상 자산을 이용한 도발을 감행중이며 인지 전투(cognitive warfare) 전술을 개발중
• 팬데믹과 복합적 재난 등 비전통적인 안보 위협 요인이 세계적으로 영향을 끼치며 국가안보를 위협하고 있으며 이는 국제적 협력을 통해 처리될 수 있음

2. 전략 지침: 요새방어를 통한 안보 확보

• 대만 총통의 국가안보 지침 및 전체적인 전략환경 평가 결과에 따라, 국가 안보의 중심을 "요새화된 국가안보, 프로페셔널한 국방사안 처리, 자주국방 이해, 국민생활 보호, 전략적 협력 확대"로 둠
• 적의 위협과 도전을 감안하여 군사적 전략의 목표는 '확고한 방어와 멀티-도메인 억제'에 둠

3. 군사력 증강: 꺾이지 않는 전력 확보

• 대만군은 군사전략 및 국방 필요성에 따라 전력증강 및 훈련 프로그램을 추진
• 작고, 막대하며, 스마트하고, 스텔시하며, 이동가능하며 탐지 및 대처가 어려운 비대칭 시스템이 구축돼야 하며 창조적인 전술과 도입이 연계돼야 함
• C4ISR, 정보전(IW), 전자전(EW) 능력이 향상될 것. 전장관리 및 합동작전 효율성 강화를 위한 정보통신전자전 (ICE warfare) 지능형 네트워크가 구축될 것. 
• 무기 및 장비의 즉응성 보장을 위한 병종간(inter-service) 군수 능력을 확대할 것이며,  작전에 필요한 자원 활용을 위한 민군 군수지원협력시스템을 만들 것
• 조직과 군 구조화, 훈련 및 무장에 중점을 둔 예비군 구조개혁을 실시해 동원 메카니즘을 개선할 것이며 예비군의 전력을 강화

6. 안보 통합: 그레이존 분쟁 대처

• 중국의 인지전 위협에 맞서 대만군은 부처간 대처 지침을 준수할 것이며, 이에 대처하기 위해 다양한 미디어를 활용할 것
• 중국의 정보전 위협에 대응해 대만군은 정보보안 및 관리파트를 요새화할 것이며 효과적인 심증적 정보방어 능력을 구축하고 사이버전 능력을 강화
• 적 항공 및 해상자산의 침투와 도발에 대응하기 위해 대만군은 높은 경계상태를 유지하며 근접감시를 계속할 것이며, 비상 및 긴급상황 대처능력을 강화할 것. 

Taiwan’s Quadrennial Defense Review

September 3, 2021 10:24 AM

The following is the recently released 2021 Quadrennial Defense Review of The Republic of China

From the report

Overviewing the current strategic situations, mainland China, aspiring to become an international superpower, is eager to undermine the international order and regional stability. It has been particularly imposing coercive means of verbal intimidation and saber-rattling, intrusion and provocation by aerial and maritime assets, cyberattacks, and cognitive warfare-forcing us to succumb to their will. Amidst the rapid-change external situations with full of severe challenges, the ROC Armed Forces is absolutely responsible for defending Taiwan. Only by improving ourselves and striving forward, accelerating force buildup and focusing on defense reform without fear of any difficulties, can we protect the country by our own strength and create a prosperous future for the nation.<br ?–>The QDR is a guiding document that directs the future development of the ROC Armed Forces. “Striving Forward and Creating a New Prospect” is the motive of the 2021 QDR. The 7 chapters are summarized as follows.

Regional Situation: Monitoring Emerging Security Challenges

• To ensure the security of the Indo-Pacific region, the United States continues to strengthen cooperation with regional allies. The PRC is trying to grasp the regional dominance, and its military expansion is destabilizing the region.
• The stalemate hindering the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and sovereignty disputes over the islands in the East China Sea (ECS) and South China Sea (SCS) are seen as regional destabilizing factors.
• The PRC continues to enhance its comprehensive military power and preparation to invade Taiwan, and initiate verbal intimidations and saber-rattling activities by its aerial and maritime assets and manipulating tactics of cognitive warfare.
• Non-traditional security challenges, such as pandemics and composite disasters, continue impacting on global and our national security and can only be tackled through international cooperation.

2. Strategic Guidance: To Ensure Security with Fortified Defense

• Following the President’s national security guidance and eval‎uating the overall strategic environment, we centered the national strategy on “fortifying national security, dealing defense affairs with professionalism, realizing self-reliant defense, protecting well-being of the people, and expanding strategic cooperation.”
• Considering the threats and challenges posed by the enemy, the military strategy aims at building “Resolute Defense and Multi-Domain Deterrence.”

3. Reinforcing Military Strength: Constructing an Unbreakable Force

• Guided by the military strategy and defense requirements, the ROC Armed Forces implements force buildup and training programs.
• Asymmetric systems, which are small, numerous, smart, stealthy, mobile and hard to be detected and countered shall be buildup and associated with innovative tactics and employments.
• Capabilities of command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (C4ISR), information warfare (IW), and electronic warfare (EW) are to be enhanced. An intelligent network of information, communications, and electronic (ICE) warfare is to be constructed to improve the battlefield management and effectiveness of joint operations.
• Inter-service logistic capacities are to be further integrated to ensure the readiness of weapons and equipment. A civilian and military ( civ-mil) logistic support cooperation system is to be established to keep readily accessible resources for operations.
• Reserve force reform, centered on organizing, force structuring, training, and equipping, is to be initiated to improve the mobilization mechanism, and strengthen the capabilities of the reserve force.

4. Building Resiliency: Pragmatic Management in Defense Affairs

• We continue to optimize the force management system, strengthen the functions of defense organizations, forge a better sense of unity, and fortify the psychological readiness of military troops.
• Diversified recruitment channels and the associated measures are to be adjusted to improve personnel quality, and ultimately shape the ROC Armed Forces into a fit, elite, and robust modem combat force.
• Cares provided to service members and their family dependents are to be well­improved to protect their rights and benefits, allow them to concentrate on their duties without worries.
• Defense budgets are formulated at an adequate level to support our force buildup and defense infrastructure, through scientific assessment, we can maximize the effectiveness of defense resources.
• All-out defense education is to be further expanded. In order to use our comprehensive national power to deter the enemy’s aggression, all-out defense drills will be enhanced to increase our crisis awareness and will to defend against the enemy.
• Emergency response capacities of the ROC Armed Forces continue to support epidemic prevention, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR), and protection of our maritime rights and interests.

5. Sustainable Roadmap: Developing Self-reliant Defense

• Budget for research and development (R&D) is to be steadily increased, and R&D capacities in all sectors are to be integrated to develop advanced technologies and weapons, and cultivate professionals in dual-use technologies.
• Seeking breakthroughs in critical defense technologies continuously, so as to develop next generation (next-gen) weapon and equipment, and achieve a self-reliant defense for the nation.
• Complying with the Defense Industry Development Act and its related regulations, combining with civilian technological capacities c to support the development of domestic defense industries, to construct a prosperous environment for defense industries.
• Offset resources are to be combined with local capacities to form a supply chain of defense industries, so as to motivate domestic industries to upgrade and enhance the self-reliant defense.

6. Consolidating Security: Addressing Gray Zone Conflict

• Facing threats of the PRC cognitive warfare, the ROC Armed Forces will follow the guidance of inter-agency reaction mechanism and make use of diversified media to counter effectively.
• In response to the threat of IW from the PRC, the ROC Armed Forces are fortifying information security and management, so as to form an effective information defense in-depth and enhance cyber operation capacities.
• Concerning intrusion and provocation by the enemy’s aerial and maritime assets, the ROC Armed Forces continues to watch closely with high vigilance and will further improve the capacity to cope with contingencies and unexpected conditions cautiously.

7. Strategic Cooperation: Creating Strategic Value of Taiwan

• Continue to elaborate the geostrategic value of our nation and cooperate with like­minded countries to contribute collectively to regional peace and stability.
• We continue to deepen the cooperation with the United States on defense and military affairs, expand exchanges with friendly countries, and participate in events hosted by think tanks and the international community, so as to enhance our effectiveness of strategic communication.
• We maintain exchanges and cooperation with various countries on epidemic prevention, HA/DR, and anti-terrorism affairs.

[백선호]

대만군이야말로 탄도탄, 순항 미사일을 대량 장비해서 "맞찌르기" 전략을 추구해야 하지 않을까 싶습니다.

[위종민]

대만의 기갑이나 유인전투기, 수상전투함같은 통상전력은 몇 년이 지나면 전력지수가 의미없는 수준까지 떨어지지 않을까요. 적 상륙함대가 출발할 항구나 공군기지, 주요 전략시설들을 때릴 능력을 갖추면서 미해군이 도달할 때까지 버틸 능력을 갖추는 것밖에 답이 없는..

태평양전쟁 초반에 필리핀은 몇 달 버티다가 나가떨어졌는데 대만은 며칠이나 견딜 수 있을지, 미해군이 대만까지 도달하는 데 얼마나 걸릴지..

[엽군]

방공망이 어디까지 버텨주느냐의 문제인데, RAND나 CSBA 쪽 자료들 보면 보통 보름 정도 버틴다고 가정하고 있죠. 달리 보면 2주 이내에 미군 증원이 있어야 버틸 수 있을 것이다일 것이고요. 그 평가들도 현재 전력 기준 평가라서 중국 쪽 5세대 전투기나 다른 전력들이 추가되면 일주일까지 버틸 수 있을지 모르겠습니다.