(Sep 30, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

[kyonmanchung]

(Sep 30, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

안녕하세요? 천고마비 계절이 아름답습니다. 즐거운 시간 가지시길!

근데 요즘 대학생들 만나면 자기 Vision이나 포부를 잘 말하지 않습니다. 젊은이들이 활개 펴는 사회를 염원하면서 ‘Economy, Stupid란 말 되새깁니다.

1. Tariff wars taking some of the steam out of still strong US economic growth, CNBC

- 미-중간 관세전쟁이 미국의 강한 경제성장의 힘을 약화시키는 모습입니다.

지난 5-6월 수출이 대폭 증가(보복관세 부과 전에 수출)한데 반해, 관세부과가 시행되는 8월의 수출이 크게 둔화하고 기업 설비투자도 부진하기 때문.

Economist들은 이를 근거로 3분기 경제성장률을 3.2%로 추정하는데, 이는 지난 2분기의 4.2% 대비 1%p나 낮은 것임(여전히 강한 성장이지만 steam 빠지는 모습)

8월의 상품수지 적자는 $75.8bn(7월 적자 $72bn)로 수출이 1.6% 감소(특히 food, feeds and beverages 등 추가 관세부과 대상 품목의 선적이 9.5%나 감소)한 것이 주요인. 7-8월 순수출 적자 폭의 확대는 GDP growth rate를 2.1%p 감소 시키는 효과. ( Y=C+I+G+X-M ㅎㅎ).

한편 기업 설비투자도 still strong하지만 Core nondefense, ex-aircraft capital goods shipment는 0.1% 증가에 그칠 것으로 추정. 재고투자는 수입품 재고 증가로 인해 급증.

<생각>

미국경제는 여전히 많이 풀린 통화(demand pull)와 Trumponomics(감세+인프라 투자+ +재정지출+규제완화)의 긍정적 효과에 힘입어 내년 초반까지는 고성장을 지속하겠지만, 차츰 무역분쟁과 Trumponomics의 역작용으로 인해 점차 하강 국면 진입할 것으로 생각(생각보다 빠를 수도 있을 것임)

2. China's overseas investment drops in 2017 for the first time on record,

CNBC News, Sep 28, 2018

- 작년 중국의 해외투자가 2002년이래 처음으로 감소하였습니다.

요인은 미국정부의 중국기업에 대한 미국 자산 취득 제동, 그리고 중국 정부의 자본유출 억제임.

작년 중국의 해외직접투자(outward direct investment) 규모는 $158.29bn로 전년 대비 19.3% 감소. 해외직접투자 통계를 내기 시작한 2002년 이래 최초로 감소세 전환

작년 중국의 대미 직접투자는 $6.43bn로 전년 대비 62.1% 감소. 반면 중국의 대 유럽 직접투자는 기록적인 $18.46bn로 전년대비 72.7% 증가.

3. Elon Musk agrees to pay $20 million and quit as Tesla chairman in deal with SEC, CNNMoney

- Elon Musk가 SEC(Securities and Exchange Commission)의 제소와 관련, 2천만불의 벌금 지급과 Tesla Inc. 회장직을 포기하기로 합의하였습니다.

SEC 제소 사건의 발단은 지난 8월 7일 Musk가 Tweet에 Tesla Inc.를 주당 $420에 사들여 사기업화(go Private)하겠으며 이를 위한 자금이 마련되었다고 말함 -> 주가 급등 -> SEC는 9월초 Musk가 구체적 계획과 자금도 없이 투자자를 기망했다면서 사기죄로 법원에 제소 ->  Tesla Inc. 주가 급락 ->Musk는 항변하다가 지난 토요일 SEC와 합의.  

한편 Tesla Inc.도 Musk회장을 잘못 감독한 이유로 2천만불 벌금에 처함. 벌금 합계 4천만불은 피해 투자자들에게 법원의 절차를 거쳐 지급될 거라고 하는군요.

Musk는 45일내 회장직을 그만 두어야하고 3년내 재 취임할 수 없지만, CEO직은 계속 유지할 수 있게 되었으며, 회사는 2명의 이사를 추가 선임해야 함

<생각>

Elon Musk의 솔직함 그리고 평소 직설적인 표현 때문에 발생한 해프닝인 듯. 그가 주가조작을 위해 사기 쳤다고는 생각하지 않음. 다만 그의 tweet으로 인해 손해 봤다는 저질 투자자를 등에 업은 SEC에게 항복한 것으로 보임.

SpaceX, Tesla, Solarcity, Hyperloop, AI 사업 등 쉴 틈 없는 그에게 질질 끄는 송사 보다는 협상으로 조기 종결하는 것이 마음 편한 듯.

천재 기업가 Musk가 우리에게 어떤 미래를 선사할 지 기대해 봅니다(말조심은 하고),

정견만 드림

1. Tariff wars taking some of the steam out of still strong US economic growth, CNBC

Patti Domm

Published 2:29 PM ET Thu, 27 Sept 2018 Updated 7 Hours Ago

• The tariff wars are already showing up in the U.S. economy, in increased U.S. export activity in May and June, and lower exports in August.
• Economists trimmed third quarter GDP growth forecasts, based on slower exports and weaker business investment in August.
• Economists now see third quarter GDP growth of 3.2 percent, according to CNBC/Moody's Analytics Rapid Update, down from 4.2 percent in the second quarter.

The tariff wars are showing up in a wider U.S. trade deficit, and have taken some of the steam out of third quarter growth that remains formidable.

This week, economists trimmed third quarter growth forecasts, after reports of a wider than expected trade deficit and weaker equipment investment. The average third quarter forecast in CNBC/Moody's Analytics Rapid Update survey of economists fell by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2 percent.

Trade data and durable goods reports were released Thursday morning, as was the final reading on second quarter GDP, which grew by 4.2 percent.

"We saw an acceleration of activity in the second quarter. Exports surged in Q2, and now they've fallen off the table in Q3," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont.

Stanley said it appears the export data was impacted by activity around the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods and the anticipated retaliation of tariffs on U.S. exports to China. He cut his forecast for third quarter to 2.8 percent from 3 percent.

With the world's two largest economies opening a new front in their multibillion dollar bilateral trade dispute, the risk has risen sharply that the U.S. will eventually slap tariffs on all imports from China, Goldman Sachs said in a recent note. That growing possibility has concerned a number of economy watchers.

Economists at J.P. Morgan recently cut their third quarter forecast from 3.5 percent to growth of 3 percent. They said the biggest contribution to their forecast reduction was a widening of the trade deficit in goods to a near record $75.8 billion in August, from July's $72 billion. They expect net exports will subtract about 2.1 percentage points from GDP growth in the quarter.

The 1.6 percent decline in exports was due in large part to a 9.5 percent drop in shipments of food, feeds and beverages. While there are not yet specifics, economists expect that could reflect a reduction in soybean exports to China.

"The widening in the August trade deficit reflected both a 1.5% decline in exports and 0.7 percent increase in imports. Both of these may have been impacted by the ongoing trade conflict. Soybean exports were reported to be front-loaded ahead of Chinese tariffs earlier in the year and now agricultural exports have been coming off hard the last two months, dragging down overall exports," the JP Morgan economists wrote.

"Meanwhile import growth has been picking up lately, which could reflect efforts by importers to get goods in the country before higher US tariffs kick in. The possible stockpiling of imported goods ahead of the tariffs may also be a factor explaining the robust $65 billion estimated annual pace of real inventory accumulation in this quarter," they wrote.

The J. P. Morgan economists said that is also why inventories grew more at wholesalers and at retailers than at domestic factories, which saw a 0.4 percent decline. "Pull-forward of imports into warehouses may persist for the duration of the year, as importers may surmise that the trade conflict with China won't be resolved in time to head off the scheduled bump-up in tariffs at year-end," they wrote.

Stanley said so far, he doesn't see any evidence that the impact from tariffs will be sustained in the trade flows. He also expects growth to remain strong at about 3 percent for this year.

"Consumer and business inestment areas are still quite storng. It's just these inventory and trade swings that have pushed the headline number a bit, but that's not indicative of the underlying health of the economy," Stanley said. "It could be somewhat disruptive but the underlying economy has a tremendous amount of strength."

The part of durable goods that most reflects business investment did weaken in August. Core nondefense, ex-aircraft capital goods shipment growth was just 0.1 percent last month, and the closely watched core orders fell by 0.5 percent.

"Real business spending on capital equipment—estimated using core capital goods shipments—appears to be increasing at about a 3.0 percent pace this quarter, the slowest growth since late 2016," JP Morgan economists wrote.

"On the plus side—at least for Q3 GDP—inventory growth now appears to be adding even more to current-quarter growth, about offsetting the trade drag."

2. China's overseas investment drops in 2017 for the first time on record,

CNBC News, Sep 28, 2018

Evelyn Cheng

• The drop came as leaders of the world's two largest economies increased scrutiny on cross-border deals, following a surge of Chinese investments in the U.S.
• Beijing would like to stem capital flight, while the Trump administration is citing national security reasons for slowing or preventing Chinese acquisitions of U.S. companies.

The Waldorf Astoria on October 6, 2014 in New York City. Anbang Insurance Group bought the Waldorf from Hilton Hotel group for $1.95 billion in 2014.

China's annual foreign direct investment outflows declined in 2017 for the first time on record, according to a government report released Friday.

The drop came as leaders of the world's two largest economies increased scrutiny on cross-border deals, following a surge of Chinese investments in the U.S. — which included the high-profile purchase of New York's landmark Waldorf Astoria hotel by Chinese insurer Anbang in 2015.

Beijing would like to stem capital flight, while the Trump administration is citing national security reasons for slowing or preventing Chinese acquisitions of U.S. companies.

Last year, China's annual outward direct investment dropped 19.3 percent to $158.29 billion, from $196.15 billion in 2016, according to government statistics. That marked the first decline recorded in data going back to 2002, according to the report from China's Ministry of Commerce, National Bureau of Statistics and State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

Figures from 2002 to 2005 include only non-financial outward foreign direct investment, while numbers from 2006 onward include all industries.

Chinese investments in the U.S. was $6.43 billion in 2017 — down 62.1 percent from a year ago, the report showed.

In contrast, flows to Europe rose to a record $18.46 billion in 2017, or 72.7 percent higher than a year ago, the report said.

3. Elon Musk agrees to pay $20 million and quit as Tesla chairman in deal with SEC, CNNMoney, by Jackie Wattles

September 29, 2018: 7:27 PM ET

Elon Musk agreed Saturday to step down as chairman of Tesla and pay a $20 million fine in a deal to settle charges brought this week by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Under the settlement, which requires court approval, Musk will be allowed to stay as CEO but must leave his role as chairman of the board within 45 days. He cannot seek reelection for three years, according to court filings.

He accepted the deal with the SEC "without admitting or denying the allegations of the complaint," according to a court document.

Separately, Tesla agreed Saturday to pay $20 million to settle claims it failed to adequately police Musk's tweet.

"The $40 million in penalties will be distributed to harmed investors under a court-approved process," the SEC said in a press release.

The company also agreed to appoint two new independent directors to its board and establish a board committee to oversee Musk's communications.

Tesla declined to comment. A spokesperson confirmed Musk will be permitted to remain a member of the board.

The announcement from the SEC comes two days after the agency filed a lawsuit against Musk, claiming he misled investors. The suit centers on tweets Musk sent on August 7 in which he said he had secured funding to take Tesla private at $420 a share, causing the company's stock to soar. He had not secured the funding, the SEC said.

The lawsuit sought to ban Musk from serving as an officer or director of any publicly traded company.

Musk called the SEC's suit "unjustified."

"I have always taken action in the best interests of truth, transparency and investors," he said. "Integrity is the most important value in my life and the facts will show I never compromised this in any way."

CNBC, citing unnamed sources, reported that the agency filed the suit on Thursday after Musk refused an earlier settlement offer. Under that deal, Musk would have had to pay a "nominal fine" and leave his role as chairman for two years. He chose not to accept the terms because "because he felt that by settling he would not be truthful to himself," according to the outlet.

A representative for Musk did not immediately reply to CNN's request for comment Saturday.

Jay Dubow, a partner at Pepper Hamilton and a veteran of the SEC's enforcement division, said it was "unusual" that the SEC agreed to let Musk stay on as chief executive but exit the chairman role.

It is surprising considering "the conduct at issue, if [the SEC] really thought it was egregious," Dubow said. "The CEO is certainly more involved than the chairman in day-to-day operations."

He suggested the SEC may have determined that removing Musk as CEO would cause more harm to Tesla's share price, and thus harm investors.

Barclays analyst Brian Johnson estimated in a recent note that Tesla's stock has a $130 "Musk premium," which could disappear if he leaves.

Still unclear is whether or not the Department of Justice will file criminal charges against Musk.

Tesla confirmed earlier this month that the DOJ was investigating whether Musk's comments about taking his company private constituted criminal activity.

Dubow, the former SEC official, said he suspects nothing will come of it.

"My guess is that it's still possible the DOJ will pursue something, but...it's more likely than not that the DOJ chooses not to pursue this," he said.

The settlement has likely assuaged the SEC, mitigating the DOJ's incentive to act.

Elon Musk ‘rolling the dice’ and buying time by turning down SEC settlement

By Claudia Assis

Published: Sept 28, 2018 4:52 p.m. ET

Reports say that Musk scuttled settlement at the last minute before lawsuit was filed

A long, drawn-out fight between Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk and U.S. securities regulators may turn out to be the best thing for the car maker, despite the fallout from a securities-fraud lawsuit dragging on the stock Friday.

A day after the Securities and Exchange Commission filed a lawsuit against Musk, experts agreed Friday that the regulators’ action had been surprisingly swift and tough. This was no slap on the wrist: Musk will have to bear some responsibility, although few believe the case could mushroom into a criminal complaint.

Tesla TSLA, -13.90%  shares fell 13.9% to end at $264.77 on Friday, their largest single-day percentage loss in nearly five years and the lowest prices since Sept. 7. The stock was the worst performer on the Nasdaq and was off more than 30% from a $385 record close in September 2017.

The Securities and Exchange Commission suit, filed Thursday, seeks to bar Musk from serving as a director and officer of a publicly traded company. It accuses him of misleading investors and committing securities fraud when he tweeted on Aug. 7 that he had “funding secured” to take Tesla private at $420 a share, and doubled down on the claim on subsequent exchanges.

Musk reportedly walked out of settlement talks at the last minute before the charges were levied. Settlement terms, according to various media reports, included requiring Musk to pay a fine and be barred from leadership roles in public companies for two years. The suit could, of course, settle at any time; barring that, it would take at least a couple of years to wind its way in the court system.

Seeking to ban Musk from his key roles — he is Tesla’s chairman as well — was an “aggressive opening” for the regulators, Columbia University law professor Joshua Mitts said.

“I’m proud of the SEC,” as the lawsuit showed it was not afraid to take on a popular business leader, he said. For a criminal case to arise, however, “this would have to feel like Bernie Madoff,” a clear case of defrauding investors, while there’s room to argue it could have been a mistake on Musk’s part, Mitts said.

Opinion: If Tesla had a real board, it would remove Elon Musk as CEO

Marcel Kahan, a law professor at New York University, also believed a criminal case against Musk would be unlikely, as there is no evidence Musk enriched himself or directly defrauded people. The SEC complaint, on the other hand, seems to be on solid footing.

In rejecting a settlement, “Musk is basically saying ‘make my day, I don’t believe you,’ ” Kahan said. The purported settlement, moreover, would have taken Musk out of Tesla at a critical juncture for the company; choosing to fight it buys the company and Musk time to somewhat plan ahead, he said.

Tesla’s promises for the second half of the year include becoming profitable and able to produce 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3 sedans in the third quarter.

The SEC indeed appears to have a strong case against Musk, said Andrew Vollmer, a law professor at the University of Virginia. Musk might be able to argue that he in good faith thought he had funding secured to take Tesla private, but the SEC allegations indicate it wouldn’t be a strong response against the claims, he said.

Vollmer, who served as SEC deputy general counsel, said he was surprised and concerned about the severity of the sanctions the SEC seeks. Going after a director-and-officer bar seems “disproportionately harsh” for the episode involving the tweets about going private, even though that was serious, he said.

Such bans are not meant to punish, but to protect the future of a company and its shareholders, and in the case of Tesla it would deprive shareholders of an important leadership, Vollmer said.

See also: Why legal experts say the SEC has a strong case against Musk

For Santa Clara University law professor Steve Diamond, choosing to fight the suit and eschewing a settlement was like “rolling the dice with your life.”

What’s more, the SEC complaint, as detailed as it was, could lay out a basis for a criminal complaint by the Justice Department, he said. Martha Stewart did less to harm her company’s investors, and she got banned from the company she founded and jail time, he said.

Musk for weeks, if not months, had railed against Tesla short sellers, Diamond said.

The shares rallied 11% on Aug. 7, triggering massive short squeezes for those who bet against Tesla. They are off 15% this year, which contrasts with advances of 9% and 7% for the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.00%  and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. DJIA, +0.07%  

“I question if it’s going to be a going concern if (Musk) is no longer the CEO,” said Scott Kollman, a lecturer in finance and economics at San Diego State University.

Opinion: The SEC may be doing Tesla a favor with its lawsuit

Musk, Tesla’s largest shareholder, would still yield power at the company, but if he is to be removed completely there’s doubt whether it could survive, he said.

“The company doesn’t have the financial stability and balance sheet to last without him,” Kollman said.

Not being cash-flow positive, Tesla “doesn’t have any money to live from,” and would have much more trouble raising more capital without Musk at the helm, he said.

“The whole company relies on him,” and even short sellers, at the end of the day, bet against Elon Musk more than they bet against Tesla, Kollman said.

[도드람]

잘 보고 있습니다 이곳 미얀마도 환율은 뛰고 경기는 엉망 이라고 이야기들 합니다
더욱 답답한 것은 앞으로 어떻게 하겠다는 것이 없어 더 걱정입니다

[모러바(volt)]

오늘도 배우면서 잘읽고 갑니다.테슬라의 머스크는 거의 단골로 몇주 나오네요.머스크를 보면서 운전대를 잡는사람이 면허증을 딴다는 성인들의 말이 생각 납니다.