Dwindling forex reserves raises concerns 외환보유액 감소로 우려증가

[김우정]

우리나라의 9월 외환보유고는 전월보다 418억달러 감소한 4,141억 달러 입니다.
세계8위에서 9위로 한 단계 하락한 규모입니다.
홍콩, 싱가포르, 스위스 등은 GDP의 100%를 넘는 외환보유액을 확보하고 있습니다.
GDP의 70%를 보유하고있는 우리나라는 외환보유고와 환율을 면밀히 모니터해야 겠습니다.
 
Dwindling forex reserves raises concerns amid prospect of prolonged high US interest rate
미국의 높은 금리가 장기화될 것이라는 전망 속에 외환보유액이 감소하면서 우려증가

By Lee Yeon-woo 이연우 기자
Posted : 2023-10-06 16:27 Updated : 2023-10-06 17:38
Korea Times

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 Korea's foreign exchange reserves have dropped for the second consecutive month, as a consequence of the unstable won-dollar exchange rate because of the increased probability of prolonged high-interest-rate policies by the U.S.
한국의 외환보유액이 미국의 장기 고금리 정책이 지속될 가능성으로 원/달러 환율 불안으로 두 달 연속 감소했다. 


Following the government's efforts to defend the depreciating Korean won, the country has slipped to ninth in the global ranking of foreign exchange reserves.
원화가치 하락을 막기 위한 정부의 노력 끝에 한국은 외환보유액 국제순위에서 9위로 떨어졌다.

According to data from the Bank of Korea (BOK), Friday, Korea's foreign exchange reserves stood at $414.12 billion as of September, a decrease of $4.18 billion from the previous year. This marks the lowest level since last October when the strong dollar pushed the won-dollar exchange rate into the 1,400 won range.
한국은행 자료에 따르면 9월 기준 국내 외환보유액은 4,141억2천만 달러로 전년대비 418억 달러 감소했다. 이는 지난해 10월 이후로 미 달러가 강세를 보이며 원/달러 환율이 1,400원대로 상승한 이후 가장 낮은 수준이다.

A sharp depreciation of the Korean won prompted foreign exchange authorities to draw from reserves to stabilize the currency. The U.S. dollar index, which gauges the value of the dollar against six major currencies, surged 3 percent month-on-month, reaching 106.23. Accordingly, the won-dollar exchange rate jumped to 1,349.3 won in September from 1,323.4 won in August.
원화의 급격한 가치 하락으로 외환 당국은 통화를 안정시키기 위해 보유액을 사용했다. 미 달 지수는 6대 주요 통화에 대한 달러 가치를 측정하며 전월 대비 3% 상승하여 106.23에 도달했다. 이에 따라 9월 원/달러 환율은 8월의 1,323.4원에서 1,349.3원으로 상승했다. 
"The decrease stems from multiple factors, including a drop in the U.S. dollar-equivalent value of other foreign currency assets, and efforts to counteract fluctuations in the foreign exchange market," an official from the BOK explained.
"감소원인은 다른 외국 통화 자산의 미 달러 환산 가치 하락과 외환시장 변동을 막기 위한 노력 등 다양한 요인에서 나온 것"이라고 한국은행 관계자가 설명했다.

Despite occasional fluctuations, the volume of foreign exchange reserves in Korea has been trending downwards. In September 2022, the reserves even fell at the steepest rate since the global financial crisis in 2008, dropping by $21.8 billion month-on-month.
가끔의 변동이 있음에도 불구하고 한국의 외환보유액은 줄어들고 있는 추세다. 2022년 9월에는 전년 대비 218억 달러 감소해 글로벌 금융 위기 이후 최대 폭으로 떨어졌다.
 
The BOK dispelled worries last year, by noting that "the current reserves ($414 billion) are approximately double that of 2008," when the foreign exchange experienced the most substantial decline.
한은은 "현재 외환보유액(4140억 달러)은 2008년(외환최대감소)의 약 2배이다"라고 지난해 설명해 우려했던 부분을 해명했다.

However, experts are concerned about the downward trend, especially given the current heightened external volatility, which stems from a continual U.S. monetary tightening.
그러나 전문가들은 특히 지속적인 미국 통화긴축에서 오는 현재 높은 외부 변동성에 대해 하락추세를 우려하고 있다. 

"If the global shortage of dollars intensifies, the exchange rate of the Korean won will inevitably climb even higher. It is projected that the rate might hit the 1,400 won range by the end of this year," said Kim Dae-jong, a business professor at Sejong University, adding that Korea should also be prepared for the upcoming volatility.
"만일 달러의 국제적인 부족이 더욱 심화된다면, 대한민국 원화 환율은 불가피하게 더 높아질 것이다. 이에따라 올해 말까지 환율이 1,400원대에 달할 것으로 예상된다" 라고 김대종 세종대학교 경영학과 교수는 말했으며, 대한민국은 이러한 불확실성에 대비해야 한다고 덧붙였다.

"Countries like Hong Kong, Singapore, and Switzerland fortify themselves against potential crises by amassing foreign reserves exceeding 100 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP). Taiwan, whose economy is structurally similar to Korea's, maintains stability in foreign exchange by holding reserve equivalent to 70 percent of its GDP," Kim added.
"홍콩, 싱가포르, 스위스 등의 국가들은 국내 총생산(GDP)의 100%를 넘는 외환보유액을 확보함으로써 잠재적 위기에 대비하고 있다. 대한민국 경제와 구조가 유사한 대만은 GDP의 70%에 해당하는 외환보유액을 확보해 환율 안정을 유지하고 있다"고 김교수는 덧붙였다.

Sung Tae-yoon, an economics professor at Yonsei University, emphasized the challenges in determining the adequate amount of foreign exchange reserves for a country.
성태윤 연세대학교 경제학과 교수는 각 나라에 적절한 외환보유액의 양을 결정하는 것이 어려운 과제라고 강조했다. 

"Even if a nation amasses foreign exchange reserves beyond the recommended level set by the IMF, it doesn't guarantee stability. If both domestic and foreign conditions deteriorate, it indicates that those reserves might still be insufficient to stabilize the foreign exchange market," Sung stated, underscoring the need for vigilance in monitoring both the foreign exchange market and reserve fluctuations.
"국제통화기금(IMF)이 권고한 수준 이상으로 외환보유액을 축적해도 안정성이 보장되는 것은 아니다. 국내/외부 상황이 모두 악화된다면 그 외환보유액이 여전히 환율을 안정시키기에 충분하지 않을 수 있다" 며 외환시장과 보유액 변동 모두를 지속적으로 모니터링할 필요성을 강조했다.

In the wake of this decline, Korea's foreign exchange reserves have dropped to ninth place globally, with Hong Kong moving up to eighth. Despite a reduction of $44.2 billion, China retained its leading position with reserves of $3.16 trillion. Meanwhile, both Japan and Switzerland saw decreases in their reserves, amounting to $1.25 trillion and $860 billion, respectively.
이 하락을 계기로 대한민국의 외환보유액은 국제적으로 9위로 밀려났으며, 홍콩이 8위로 올라갔다. 중국은 3.16조 달러로 최상위 자리를 유지하며 442억 달러의 감소에도 불구하고 여전히 선두를 유지했다. 한편 일본과 스위스는 각각 1.25조 달러와 8600억 달러로 감소를 보였다.

#Dwindling감소하는 #Forexreserves외환보유액 #Prospect전망 #Prolonged장기화된 #HighUSinterestrate미국의높은금리 #Unstablewon-dollarexchangerate #불안정한원/달러환율 #DepreciatingKoreanwon가치가하락하는대한민국원화 #Globalrankingofforeignexchangereserves #외환보유액국제순위 #Dollar-equivalentvalue미달러환산가치 #Externalvolatility외부 변동성