BOK likely to freeze key rate again amid colliding risks 한국은행, 기준금리 동결할 듯

[김우정]

한은은 다음주 목요일 금통위에서 기준금리를 동결할 것으로 예상됩니다.
수출회복지연, 주택담보대츨급증과 민간소비악화 등을 고려한 결정입니다. 
거시적으로 국내외 경제리스크의 불확실성에 대비하기위한 것입니다.
그러나, 한은의 이자율 인상사이클이 끝나지 않았음을 강조할 것으로 보입니다.
 
 
BOK likely to freeze key rate again amid colliding risks
한국은행, 리스크가 겹치는 가운데 기준금리 동결할 듯

By Yi Whan-woo 이환우 기자
Posted : 2023-10-13 16:08 Updated : 2023-10-13 17:10
Korea Times

Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Rhee Chang-yong, right, speaks during a meeting with the Korean press, Thursday (local time), in Morocco, where he is attending the 2023 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund. Yonhap 이창용 한국은행 총재(오른쪽)가 목요일(현지 시간) 세계은행 2023 연차총회 참석차 모로코에서 열린 한국 언론과의 간담회에서 발언하고 있다. 연합

Concerns grow over capital outflow as interest rate gaps widen
이자율 격차 확대로 자본 유출 우려 증가

The Bank of Korea (BOK) is anticipated to leave the policy rate unchanged again in its upcoming rate-setting meeting scheduled for next Thursday, to counter colliding financial risks increasingly complicating the country’s path to economic recovery.
한국은행(BOK)은 다가오는 목요일 예정된 금융통화위원회의에서 정책금리를 다시 변화시키지 않을 것으로 예상되며, 국내 경제회복의 길을 더욱 복잡하게 만드는 충돌하는 금융 리스크에 맞서기 위함이다.

However, it is highly probable that the central bank will send a hawkish signal that the rate hike cycle has not come to an end, in order to dismiss concerns over a further capital outflow caused by the widening interest rate gap between Korea and the U.S.
그러나 한국과 미국 사이의 이자율 격차가 확대되어 더 큰 자본유출 우려를 불러일으킬 것을 우려하여 중앙은행이 이자율 인상 사이클이 끝나지 않았다는 강경한 신호를 보낼 가능성이 높다.

A possible rate pause at 3.5 percent will occur for the sixth time in a row since January, which may consolidate market belief that the BOK’s rate hike cycle is over, even if it keeps the door open for additional hikes.
1월 이후 6번째로 3.5%의 이자율 유지가 예상되며, 이는 한은의 이자율 인상사이클이 끝났다는 시장의 믿음을 굳건하게 할 수 있지만 추가적인 인상 가능성은 여전히 열려 있다.

However, such a pause should not be taken for granted, according to analysts, Friday.
그러나 애널리스트들에 따르면 이에 대한 일시적 중단은 당연하게 받아들여서는 안 된다.

“The multiple, chronic risks from here and abroad are becoming trickier to keep under control at the same time,” said Lee Sang-ho, head of the economic policy team at the Korea Economic Research Institute (KERI).
이상호 한국경제연구원(KERI) 경제정책팀장은 “국내외에서의 다양한 만성적인 리스크들이 동시에 통제하기 어려워지고 있다”며 이렇게 경고했다.

Under the circumstances, Lee warned that “striking a balance in tackling the risks of conflict is especially crucial as failing to do so will have unwanted side effects anyway.”
이 상황에서 이는 “추돌하는 리스크를 균형 있게 다루는 것이 중요한데, 그렇게 하지 않으면 원치 않는 부작용이 발생할 것”이라고 경고했다.

Among the risks Lee addressed were surging home loans and weakened private spending.
이는 주택담보대출이 급증하고 민간 소비가 약화된 부분 중 하나였다.

The outstanding balance of bank loans taken out by prospective homeowners increased by 5.7 trillion won ($4.2 billion) in September, although the current 3.5 percent benchmark borrowing rate is at a 14-year high.
희망 주택구매자들이 은행 대출 잔액은 9월에 5.7조원(42억 달러) 증가했으며, 현재 3.5%의 기준금리는 14년 만에 최고 수준이다.

Resuming a rate hike to curb the loan increase, however, can sacrifice weakened private spending ― one of the twin engines of the Korean economy along with exports.
그러나 대출 증가를 억제하기 위한 이자율 인상재개는 수출과 더불어 한국경제의 쌍둥이엔진 중 하나인 민간소비를 희생시킬 수 있다.

Private consumption slid by 0.1 percent in the second quarter, failing to sustain growth after a 0.5 percent increase in the previous quarter.
2분기 민간소비는 0.1% 감소하며 이전 분기의 0.5% 증가를 이어가지 못했다.

Image Caption

“You can see how, if realized, a rate pause will be determined in demanding circumstances,” Lee said.
“실현된다면, 이자율 일시중단이 어려운 상황에서 결정될 것”이라고 이팀장은 말했다.

Another colliding factor addressed against weakened private spending was volatility in energy and commodity prices worldwide.
약화된 민간소비에 대한 또 다른 부정적인 요소로 이 팀장은 전 세계적인 에너지와 상품 가격의 변동성을 지적했다.

Such volatility puts upward inflationary pressure on consumer prices. After coming down to a 25-month low of 2.3 percent in July, consumer inflation grew for the second month in a row, hitting 3.4 percent in August and 3.7 percent in September.
이러한 변동성은 소비자물가에 상승적 인플레이션 압력을 가하며, 7월에 2.3%로 25개월 만에 최저 수준으로 내려갔다가 8월과 9월에 연속 두 달간 상승하여 각각 3.4%와 3.7%에 이르렀다.

“But even so, ending the rate pause to tackle inflation will not necessarily help revitalize spending as many households will need to make more repayments instead,” said Jung Yoo-tag, a research fellow at Hana Institute of Finance.
"하지만 그럼에도 불구하고, 인플레이션을 억제하기 위해 이자율 일시 중단을 끝내더라도 많은 가구들이 상환을 더 많이 해야 한다는 점에서 소비활성화에 도움이 될 것이라고 할 수 없을 것이다," 한나금융연구소의 정유태 연구원은 말했다.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, an LG Economic Research economist also sided with a possible skip of rate hikes, under the condition that “such a decision will be coordinated more carefully than ever.”
익명으로 언급한 LG경제연구원 또한 "이러한 결정이 이전보다 더 신중하게 조율될 것"이라는 조건 하에 이자율 인상을 건너뛰는 가능성을 지지했다.

He said if Korea keeps the rate steady, it will continue to run the risk of a record interest rate gap with the U.S. after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate pause in September.
한국이 이자율을 유지한다면, 9월 미국 연준의 강경한 이자율 일시중단 이후 미국과의 역대 최대의 이자율 격차 리스크를 지속할 수 있다고 말했다.

The U.S. rate is in the range of 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. It marks a 22-year high, persistently raising concerns over the massive outflow of foreign capital from Korea in search of safer haven assets.
미국의 이자율은 5.25%에서 5.5%의 범위 내에 있다. 이는 22년 만에 최고 수준으로, 더 안전한 자산을 찾아 한국으로의 외국 자본 대규모 유출에 대한 우려를 계속 불러일으키고있다.

It could be increased further in the U.S central bank’s two remaining rate-setting meetings this year ― scheduled for late October and December ― considering the Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank still has “a long way to go” in bringing down inflation to its target of 2 percent.
이는 10월 말과 12월에 열리는 미국 중앙은행의 두 번째 이자율 결정 회의에서 더 높아질 수 있다는 점을 고려할 때 더욱 증가될 수 있다. 이는 제롬 파월 연준의장이 미국 중앙은행이 인플레이션을 목표치인 2%로 낮추기 위해 아직 "먼 길을 가야 한다"고 말한 것을 감안한 것이다.

Meanwhile, the experts assessed the resurgence in consumer inflation in August and September as “under the BOK’s anticipated trajectory” and said it will not influence the rate decision.
한편 전문가들은 8월과 9월의 소비자 물가 증가를 "한국은행의 예상된 경로 아래에 있다"고 평가하며 이것이 이자율 결정에 영향을 미치지 않을 것이라고 말했다.

#BankofKorea(BOK)한국은행 #Policyrate정책금리 #terestrategap이자율격차 #Caitaloutflow자본유출 #Economicrecovery경제회복 Rate-settingmeeting금융통화위원회의 #Ratehikecycle이자율인상사이클 #Privatespending민간소비 #Consumerinflation소비자물가상승 #Inflationarypressure인플레이션압력