Korea to join world's top 7 economies by 2040 한국, 2040년 세계 7대 경제대국 전망

[김우정]

세계적인 커설팅기업 맥켄지는 2040년에 한국이 세계7대 경제대국이 될 것으로 전망합니다.

반도체, 바이오, 인공지능(AI)과 같은 첨단산업을 중심으로 새로운 경제성장의 시기에 접어들것입니다.
인국고령화와 저출산의 도전을 극복하고 기술제조허브에서 기술창조국이 될것입니다.
1인당 GDP는 7만달러를 넘는 2040년을 기대해 봅니다.

 
Korea projected to join world's top 7 economies by 2040: McKinsey
맥킨지: 한국, 2040년 세계 7대 경제대국 전망

By Anna J. Park 박안나 기자
Posted : 2023-10-19 16:53 Updated : 2023-10-19 16:58
Korea Times

From left, Lareina Yee and Vinayak HV, senior partners at McKinsey & Company, talk with Clay Chandler, executive editor for Asia at Fortune, during a session of the McKinsey Asia Media Day at The Shilla Seoul hotel, Thursday. Courtesy of McKinsey & Company 목요일, 신라호텔에서 열린 맥킨지 아시아 미디어 데이 세션 중 왼쪽부터 McKinsey & Company의 선임 파트너인 Lareina Yee와 Vinayak HV가 Fortune의 아시아 담당 편집장인 Clay Chandler와 이야기를 나누고 있다. 매킨지 앤드 컴퍼니 제공

 McKinsey Asia Media Day in Seoul delves into challenges facing Asia
서울에서 열리는 맥킨지 아시아 미디어 데이에 아시아가 직면하고 있는 도전에 대해 탐구
 
Korea is forecast to grow into the world's seventh-largest economy by 2040, with per capita gross domestic product (GDP) expected to surpass $70,000, according to the head of McKinsey & Company in Korea on Thursday.
한국의 맥킨지앤컴퍼니 대표는 2040년까지 한국이 세계 7위의 경제대국으로 성장할 것이며, 1인당 국내총생산(GDP)은 7만 달러를 넘어설 것으로 예상된다고 목요일에 발표했다.

During the Asia Media Day hosted by McKinsey & Company, a full-day program packed with a total of seven sessions at The Shilla Seoul, Song Seung-heon, managing partner at McKinsey Korea, highlighted key takeaways from the firm's latest report on Korea's next economic growth model.
맥킨지코리아의 송승헌 매니징 파트너는 신라 서울에서 총 7개 세션으로 구성된 종일 프로그램인 아시아 미디어 데이에서 한국의 다음 경제성장 모델에 대한 회사의 최신보고서에서 얻을 수 있는 주요 이점을 강조했다.

Under the presentation title of "Korea's Next S-curve," Song emphasized that Korea has now entered a new period of economic growth in which Korea needs to focus on high-tech industries, such as semiconductors, bio and artificial intelligence (AI), to implement a necessary transition to a value-added economy.
"한국의 다음 S-Curve"라는 발표 제목 아래, 송대표는 한국이 이제 부가가치경제로의 필요한 전환을 실행하기 위해 반도체, 바이오, 인공지능(AI)과 같은 첨단 산업에 집중할 필요가 있는 새로운 경제성장의 시기에 접어들었다고 강조했다.
 
McKinsey suggested that Korea implement eight major tasks, including industrial structure reform, business model reform, conversion to new businesses centered on original technology and AI, among others, under the three axes of reorganization, transformation and construction.
매킨지는 한국이 산업구조 개혁, 비즈니스 모델 개혁, 원천기술과 AI 중심의 신사업 전환 등 8대 과제를 재편, 변혁, 건설의 3대 축으로 추진할 것을 제안했다.

“If Korea boldly implements the key tasks with a growth mindset, it will be possible for Korea to become the world’s seventh-largest economy by 2040 with achieving a per capita GDP of $70,000,” Song said during the session.
"한국이 성장마인드로 핵심과제들을 과감하게 실행한다면, 한국은 2040년까지 1인당 GDP 7만 달러를 달성하며 세계 7위의 경제대국이 되는 것이 가능할 것이다,"라고 송 대표는 세션에서 말했다.

Song Seung-heon, managing partner of Korea at McKinsey & Company, speaks during his presentation at a session of the McKinsey Asia Media Day held at The Shilla Seoul hotel, Thursday. Korea Times photo by Anna J. Park 맥킨지앤드컴퍼니의 한국 파트너 송승헌 대표가 3일 서울 신라호텔에서 열린 맥킨지 아시아 미디어 데이 세션에서 발표를 하고 있다. 코리아 타임즈 박안나 촬영

Besides Song's presentation, six other sessions were held during the Asia Media Day event in Seoul, with dozens of consultants from Shanghai, Singapore, London, Sydney and more joining the program to share the global management strategy firm’s insights into the outlook for Asia in the coming future.
송대표의 발표 외에도, 서울에서 열린 아시아 미디어 데이 행사 동안, 상하이, 싱가포르, 런던, 시드니 등에서 온 수십 명의 컨설턴트들이 참가하여, 향후 아시아의 전망에 대한 글로벌 경영전략을 회사의 통찰력으로 공유했다.

The sessions covered various topics, ranging from generative AI, energy and green technology to inclusive prosperity, yet the common denominator of the sessions was the new challenges facing Asian countries.
세션은 발전형 AI, 에너지, 녹색 기술에서 포괄적 번영에 이르기까지 다양한 주제를 다루었지만, 세션의 공통분모는 아시아 국가들이 직면한 새로운 도전이었다.

Despite Asia's successes in leading the global economic growth over the past decades, serving successfully the role as the nexus of the world with its ample population and technological innovations, the region now faces a challenging period ahead, requiring a new set of strategies for businesses.
아시아는 지난 수십년간 세계경제성장을 이끌며 성공적으로 세계경제를 이끌었고, 풍부한 인구와 기술혁신으로 세계의 넥서스 역할을 해왔음에도 불구하고, 이 지역은 이제 기업들에게 새로운 전략을 요구하는 어려운 시기를 맞고 있다.
 
“In the past era, Asia, including South Korea, benefited more than any other region from the major trends of globalization and digitization. And it starts a new era in a strong position. Looked at collectively, the diverse and dynamic countries of Asia are now such a large part of the global economy, they can shape a new era,” Seong Jeong-min, a partner at McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), said during the session titled “Asia on the cusp of a new era” at the event.
매킨지글로벌인스티튜트(MGI)의 성정민 파트너는 이날 행사에서 "새로운 시대의 정점에 선 아시아"라는 제목의 세션에서 "과거에는 한국을 포함한 아시아가 세계화와 디지털화라는 주요 트렌드의 혜택을 어느 지역보다 많이 받았다"며 "이제 아시아의 다양하고 역동적인 국가들이 세계경제의 큰 부분을 차지하고 있어 새로운 시대를 형성할 수 있다"고 말했다.

Seong Jeong-min, a partner at McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), speaks during his presentation at a session of the McKinsey Asia Media Day held at The Shilla Seoul hotel, Thursday. Courtesy of McKinsey & Company 맥킨지글로벌연구소(MGI)의 성정민 파트너가 17일 신라호텔에서 열린 맥킨지 아시아 미디어데이 세션에서 발표하고 있다. 맥킨지앤드컴퍼니 제공

“A new era is going to have very different underlying forces than in the past, and Asia will be at the center of these forces,” Chris Bradley, a McKinsey senior partner and MGI director, said during the session as well. “Asia will be the furnace in which a new era is forged, and it may be that Asia experiences a more concentrated, heightened version of global challenges.”
"새로운 시대는 과거와는 매우 다른 근본적인 힘을 가지게 될 것이고, 아시아는 이러한 힘의 중심에 있게 될 것이다,"라고 McKinsey의 수석 파트너이자 MGI 이사인 Chris Bradley도 또한 그 세션에서 말했다. "아시아는 새로운 시대가 형성되는 용광로가 될 것이고, 그것은 아마도 아시아가 더 집중되고 고조된 세계적인 도전들을 경험하는 것일 것이다."

The two speakers delved into how to navigate the challenging period facing Asian countries in five key domains ― world order, technology platforms, demographic forces, resource and energy systems and capitalization. Many thought-provoking questions were raised, including whether Asia could reinvent itself as a technology creator from the current global hub for tech-manufacturing. Demographic challenges of aging population and low fertility rate are another major headwind facing Asian economies.
두 연사는 아시아 국가들이 직면한 도전의 시기를 세계질서, 기술 플랫폼, 인구구조, 자원 및 에너지시스템, 자본 등 5대 핵심 분야에서 어떻게 헤쳐 나갈 것인지에 대해 심도 있게 논의했다. 아시아가 현재 세계적인 기술 제조허브에서 기술 창조국으로 거듭날 수 있을지를 비롯하여 많은 생각을 자극하는 질문들이 제기되었다. 인구고령화와 저출산이라는 인구구조적 도전은 아시아 경제가 직면한 또 다른 주요 역풍이다.

Participants listen to a presentation during the McKinsey Asia Media Day held at The Shilla Seoul hotel, Thursday. Courtesy of McKinsey & Company 목요일 서울 중구 장충동 신라호텔에서 열린 맥킨지 아시아 미디어데이에서 참석자들이 프레젠테이션을 듣고 있다. 맥킨지앤드컴퍼니 제공

“While the pace of aging is very fast in the region, Korea shows the highest number in the old age dependency ratio. In addition, Korea’s fertility rate dropped to 0.78 in 2022, the lowest figure among OECD countries. Shanghai’s urban fertility rate also stood at only 0.7, even lower than that of Korea,” Seong pointed out during the session, adding that the demographic challenge brings in difficult policy options like cross-border migration or relocation of workforces to address labor mismatches.
"그 지역에서 고령화 속도가 매우 빠른 반면, 한국은 노령 부양 비율에서 가장 높은 수치를 보여줍니다. 게다가, 한국의 출산율은 2022년에 OECD 국가들 중 가장 낮은 수치인 0.78로 떨어졌습니다. 상하이의 도시 출산율도 한국의 그것보다 심지어 더 낮은 0.7에 불과했습니다"라고 성씨가 세션에서 지적했고, 노동 불일치를 해결하기 위해 국경을 초월한 이주 또는 노동력의 재배치와 같은 어려운 정책 선택권을 가져온다고 덧붙였다.
 
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