Korea still uncertain about 1.4% growth target 한국, 1.4% 성장 목표 불확실

[김우정]

우리나라 GDP는 1,2분기에 이어 3분기에도 0.6% 성장했습니다.
애널리스트들은 경제적 위험증가로 수출과 민간지출이라는 성장동력이 떨어질 것을 우려합니다.
한은과 기재부는 1.4%의 연간 성장목표를 강력하게 지지하고 있습니다.
한국은행은 4분기에 0.7% 이상 성장해야 목표를 달성할 것으로 전망합니다.
 
Korea still uncertain about 1.4% growth target despite Q3 GDP increase
한국, 3분기 GDP 증가에도 불구하고 여전히 1.4% 성장 목표 불확실

By Yi Whan-woo 이환우 기자
Posted : 2023-10-26 16:45 Updated : 2023-10-26 17:34
Korea Times

Bank of Korea (BOK) officials announce preliminary data of Korea's economic growth for the third quarter at the bank's headquarters in downtown Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap 한국은행 관계자들이 목요일 서울 시내에 있는 본점에서 3분기 경제성장률 잠정치를 발표하고 있다. 연합

 Korea’s economy grew 0.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, expanding for the third quarter in a row, according to Bank of Korea (BOK) preliminary data released on Thursday.
한국은행이 목요일 발표한 잠정자료에 따르면, 3/4분기 한국경제는 전년 동기 대비 0.6% 성장하여 3/4분기 연속 성장세를 기록했다.

But whether growth can reach the annual target of 1.4 percent remains uncertain, according to analysts, as heightening economic risks could disrupt the pace of recovery in the twin engines of growth ― exports and private spending.
그러나 분석가들에 따르면 경제적 위험의 증가가 수출과 민간 지출이라는 두 가지 성장 동력의 회복 속도를 방해할 수 있기 때문에 성장이 연간 목표치인 1.4%에 도달할 수 있을지는 불확실하다고 한다.

The 1.4 percent growth target is backed by both the BOK and the Ministry of Economy and Finance.
1.4% 성장 목표는 한국은행과 기획재정부에 의해 뒷받침되고 있습니다.

“The course of recovery is still distant from the economic rebound as underlined by the government in the second half of the year,” Park Sang-hyun and Ryu Jin-lee, both economists at Hi Investment & Securities, said in a report they co-authored.
박상현, 류진리 하이투자증권 이코노미스트는 "하반기 정부가 강조한 경기 반등과는 아직 회복 방향이 멀었다"고 공동 집필한 보고서에서 밝혔다.

“We have to say reaching the annual growth will thus be tricky.”
"우리는 따라서 연간 성장에 도달하는 것이 어려울 것이라고 말해야 만한다."

The economists noted that exports expanded 3.5 percent year-on-year after declining 0.9 percent three months earlier, while private consumption grew 0.3 percent year-on-year after contracting 0.1 percent in the previous quarter.
이코노미스트 들은 수출이 3개월 전 0.9% 감소한 후 전년동기 대비 3.5% 증가한 반면 민간 소비는 전 분기에 0.1% 감소한 후 전년동기 대비 0.3% 증가했다고 지적했다.

Correspondingly, gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.6 percent following another 0.6 percent gain in the April-June period and a 0.3 percent gain in the January-March period.
이에 따라 국내총생산(GDP)은 4~6월 0.6%, 1~3월 0.3% 증가에 이어 0.6% 증가했다.

Under the circumstances, the Hi Investment & Securities economists said the breakout of the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 13 could add to volatility in global oil prices and negatively affect manufacturing costs.
이런 상황에서 하이투자증권 이코노미스트들은 10월 13일 이스라엘과 하마스의 전쟁 발발이 세계 유가의 변동성을 가중시키고 제조원가에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 말했다.
 

Image Caption

A hike in production costs could weaken export competitiveness and private spending.
생산비 상승은 수출 경쟁력과 민간 지출을 약화시킬 수 있다.

In an apparent reflection of the unfavorable business environment, domestic companies’ business sentiment index (BSI) weakened to 69 for November, down from 73 the previous month, in a BOK survey released on Thursday.
한국은행이 목요일 발표한 11월 기업경기실사지수(BSI) 조사에서 국내 기업들의 기업경기실사지수(BSI)가 69로 전월의 73에서 하락한 것으로 나타났다.

The index measures corporate prospects for business conditions for the coming month. A reading below 100 means pessimists outnumber optimists.
이 지수는 다음 달 기업들의 업황 전망을 측정한 것으로, 100 미만이면 비관론자가 낙관론자보다 많다는 것을 의미한다.
 
Lee Sang-ho, head of the economic policy team at the Korea Economic Research Institute (KERI), assessed that geopolitical risks in the Middle East are increasingly prompting investors’ preference for safe-haven assets and further weakening the value of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar.
이상호 한국경제연구원 경제정책팀장은 중동의 지정학적 리스크가 투자자들의 안전자산 선호를 더욱 부추기고 있고, 미 달러화 대비 원화 가치가 더욱 약세를 보이고 있다고 평가했다.

“In return, the pace of decline in monthly exports can widen again in the fourth quarter,” Lee said.
"그 대가로, 월별 수출 감소 속도는 4분기에 다시 더 커질 수 있습니다"라고 이 팀장은 말했다.

He was referring to the outbound shipments that fell for the 12th consecutive month in September but logged the smallest year-on-year decline at 4.4 percent so far for this year.
그는 9월에 12개월 연속 감소했지만 올해 들어 지금까지 4.4%로 전년 대비 가장 적은 감소율을 기록한 것을 언급한 것이다.

In relation to the won-dollar exchange rate, the KERI economist said the U.S. Federal Reserve, although it has paused rate hikes twice since June, is still open to another hike if U.S. consumer price inflation does not come under control.
원-달러 환율과 관련해 KERI 이코노미스트는 미국 연방준비제도이사회가 지난 6월 이후 두 차례 금리 인상을 중단했지만 미국의 소비자물가 인플레이션이 통제되지 않는다면 여전히 또 다른 인상을 받을 가능성이 있다고 말했다.

Regarding private spending, Lee said the resurgent growth of Korea’s consumer prices and costly borrowing rates could weigh on consumer sentiment.
개인지출과 관련하여, 이씨는 한국의 소비자 물가와 비싼 차입이자율의 재등장이 소비심리에 부담이 될 수 있다고 말했다.

Consumer price inflation rose 3.4 percent in August and then 3.7 percent in September, after softening to a 25-month low of 2.3 percent in July.
소비자물가 상승률은 7월에 2.3%로 25개월만에 최저치를 기록한 이후 8월에 3.4% 상승했고 9월에는 3.7% 상승했다.

The benchmark interest rate stands at 3.5 percent following an unprecedented seven consecutive rate hikes through January this year.
기준금리는 올해 1월까지 전례 없는 7차례 연속 금리 인상에 이어 3.5%를 기록하고 있다.

Meanwhile, the BOK maintained the view that the economy may grow in line with its own growth estimate for the year if GDP growth hits 0.7 percent for the final three months of the year.
한편 한국은행은 국내총생산(GDP) 성장률이 올해 마지막 3개월간 0.7%를 기록할 경우 올해 자체 성장률 추정치에 따라 경제가 성장할 수 있다는 견해를 유지했다.

Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho voiced a similar view. “The 2023 GDP is growing under the trajectory for the 1.4 percent growth target," he said, "although there are uncertainties involving the Israel-Hamas war, among others.”
추경호 기재부 장관도 비슷한 견해를 밝혔다. "2023년 GDP는 1.4% 성장 목표의 궤도 아래에서 성장하고 있다." 그는 "이스라엘과 하마스의 전쟁과 관련된 불확실성이 있지만" 이라고 말했다

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