Weak yen dims Korea's economic prospects 엔화약세, 한국경제전망 악화

[김우정]

엔화약세가 지속되어 우리경제에 나쁜 영향을 미치고 있습니다.
우선 일본제품에 대한 가격경쟁력 약화로 수출위 위축되고 있습니다.
엔화에 투자한 개인들은 외환손실을 보고 있습니다.
연구에 의하면 엔이 달러에 대해 1% 절하되면 한국의 수출액은 0.61% 감소합니다.
 
Weak yen dims Korea's economic prospects
엔화약세, 한국경제전망 악화

By Lee Yeon-woo 이연우 기자
Posted : 2023-10-29 15:53 Updated : 2023-10-29 15:58
Korea times

Pedestrians watch a display showing the foreign exchange rate between the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar, in Tokyo, Japan, Thursday. EPA-Yonhap 목요일 일본 도쿄에서 행인들이 일본 엔화 대 미국 달러화의 환율을 보여주는 디스플레이를 보고 있다. EPA-연합

Individual investors betting on yen's recovery face losses
엔화회복에 베팅한 개인투자자들 손실직면 

Concerns are mounting over the potential negative impact of prolonged weakening of the Japanese yen on Korean exports which were expected to bolster the Korean economy in the second half of this year.
올 하반기에 한국경제를 뒷받침할 것으로 기대된 한국의 수출이 위축될 가능성에 대한 우려가 높아지고 있다.

The yen-dollar rate closed at 150.39 yen on Thursday (local time) in the foreign exchange market. This marks the yen's lowest level since its depreciation began last October. Since the end of January, the yen-to-dollar exchange rate has risen by over 13 percent. This increase is noteworthy, particularly when compared to the 8.8 percent growth in the won-to-dollar rate over the same period.
일본 엔-달러 환율은 현지시간으로 목요일에 150.39 엔으로 마감되었다. 이는 작년 10월 약세가 시작된 이후로 엔의 최저 수준이다. 1월말 이후로는 엔-달러 환율이 13% 이상 상승했다. 이 기간 동안 원-달러 환율은 8.8% 상승했음에 비해 주목할 만한 상승이다.

The yen's decline can be attributed to Japanese assets flowing into the U.S. in search of higher returns. This comes as Japan pursues monetary easing to combat stagnant growth, while the U.S. takes a more hawkish stance on policy rates.
엔의 하락은 미국에서 더 높은 수익을 찾기 위해 일본 자산이 유입되는 것으로 해석될 수 있다. 이는 일본이 침체된 성장을 극복하기 위해 통화 완화를 추진하는 동안 미국이 정책금리에 대해 더 강경한 입장을 취하는 것과 관련이 있다.

However, the depreciation of the yen poses a challenge to Korean industries like automobiles and steel, which face strong export competition with Japan. When both nations offer similar products on the global market, a weaker yen can give Japanese products a pricing edge. According to the Korea Economic Research Institute, a 1 percent depreciation of the yen against the dollar results in a 0.2 percent drop in Korea's export volume and a 0.61 percent decline in its export value.
그러나 엔의 절하는 일본과 경쟁하는 자동차 및 철강 등 한국 산업에 도전을 제기하고 있다. 두 나라가 국제 시장에서 유사한 제품을 제공할 때, 약한 엔은 일본 제품에 가격 경쟁력을 부여할 수 있다. 한국경제연구원에 따르면, 엔이 달러에 대해 1% 절하하면 한국의 수출량이 0.2% 감소하고 수출가치는 0.61% 감소한다.

This casts a shadow over the Korean government's hopes for an economic rebound in the latter half of this year.
이는 한국정부가 올 하반기 경제 회복을 기대하는 데 그림자를 드리우고 있다.

"The fourth quarter of 2023 could serve as an inflection point in the long-term," the Korea International Trade Association noted in its analysis on Thursday, emphasizing that the potential for a substantial upswing in export growth is still uncertain.
"2023년 제4분기는 장기적으로 기획의 전환점이 될 수 있다,"라고 한국무역협회는 목요일 분석에서 강조했으며, 수출증가의 큰 변곡점이 될 가능성은 여전히 불확실하다고 강조했다.

Conversely, the Japanese economy is benefitting from the yen's depreciation, capitalizing on rising exports and tourism.
한편, 엔의 절하는 일본 경제에 도움을 주고 수출과 관광을 촉진하고 있다.

On Oct. 10, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected Japan's economic growth at 2 percent for this year, marking a 0.6 percent increase from its July forecast. It, however, maintained Korea's growth prediction at 1.4 percent for the second consecutive time. Should this trend persist, Korea's economic growth rate would lag behind that of Japan's for the first time in 25 years, since the Asian financial crisis.
10월 10일 국제통화기금(IMF)은 올해 일본의 경제 성장률을 2%로 예상하며 7월 예측보다 0.6% 증가했다. 그러나 IMF는 한국의 성장률 예측을 1.4%로 두 번째 연속으로 유지했다. 이러한 추세가 지속된다면 한국의 경제성장률이 아시아 금융위기 이후 25년 만에 일본을 추월하지 못할 것이다.

Individual investors, who had anticipated a strengthening yen within this year, are becoming apprehensive due to the potential for financial damage.
금융피해 가능성으로 예상했던 개인투자자들은 염려를 가지고 있다.

Data from the Korea Exchange reveals that individual investors acquired 13.7 billion won ($10.08 million) worth of Mirae Asset Tiger JPY KRW Futures ETF ― a sole ETF in Korea that bets on the yen's recovery ― from July 31 to Sunday. However, the ETF recorded a 0.23 percent decline since August and saw a 5.91 percent drop this year.
한국거래소의 데이터에 따르면, 개인 투자자들은 7월 31일부터 일요일까지 미래에셋 타이거 JPY KRW 선물 ETF 약 137억원(1천80만 달러) 상당을 매입했다. 그러나 해당 ETF는 8월 이후 0.23% 하락하며 올해에는 5.91% 하락했다.

Nevertheless, market watchers expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to reverse course by the end of this year.
그럼에도 불구하고 시장 전문가들은 일본은 올해 말까지 정책을 뒤집을 것으로 예상하고 있다.

"The rising U.S. Treasury yields, leading to a greater divergence between U.S. and Japanese interest rates, amplify pressures on yen depreciation, potentially resulting in increased import prices. As such, sustaining the easing policies for a prolonged duration becomes challenging," said Shin Earl, an analyst at Sangsangin Investment & Securities.
"미국 국채수익률의 상승은 미국과 일본의 이자율 차이를 더 커지게 하여 엔 절하압력을 증폭시키며 수입물가 상승을 야기할 수 있다. 이로써 장기간의 완화정책 유지가 어려워진다," 신얼 상상인투자증권 애널리스트는 말했다.

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