Generative AI will go mainstream in 2024

[곽영어]

Data-savvy firms will benefit first

데이터에 능숙한 기업이 먼저 혜택을 받을 것입니다

image: mariano pascual

By Guy Scriven

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When new technologies emerge they benefit different groups at different times. Generative artificial intelligence (ai) first helped software developers, who could use GitHub Copilot, a code-writing ai assistant, from 2021. The next year came other tools, such as Chatgpt and dall-e 2, which let all manner of consumers instantly produce words and pictures.

새로운 기술이 등장하면 다양한 그룹이 서로 다른 시기에 혜택을 받습니다. 생성형 인공지능(AI)은 2021년부터 코드 작성 AI 어시스턴트인 GitHub Copilot을 사용할 수 있는 소프트웨어 개발자에게 가장 먼저 도움이 되었습니다. 다음 해에는 모든 종류의 소비자가 즉시 단어와 그림을 생성할 수 있는 Chatgpt와 dall-e 2와 같은 다른 도구가 등장했습니다.

In 2023 tech giants gained, as investors grew more excited about the prospects of generative ai. An equally weighted share-price index of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia grew by nearly 80% (see chart). Tech firms benefited because they supply either the ai models themselves, or the infrastructure that powers and delivers them.

2023년, 투자자들이 제너레이티브 AI의 가능성에 대한 기대감이 커지면서 기술 대기업들의 주가가 상승했습니다. 알파벳, 아마존, 애플, 메타, 마이크로소프트, 엔비디아의 동일 가중치 주가 지수는 80% 가까이 상승했습니다(차트 참조). 기술 기업들은 AI 모델 자체 또는 이를 구동하고 제공하는 인프라를 공급하기 때문에 이득을 얻었습니다.

image: the economist

In 2024 the big beneficiaries will be companies outside the technology sector, as they adopt ai in earnest with the aim of cutting costs and boosting productivity. There are three reasons to expect enterprise adoption to take off.

2024년에 가장 큰 수혜자는 비용 절감과 생산성 향상을 목표로 AI를 본격적으로 도입하는 기술 분야 외의 기업들이 될 것입니다. 기업에서 AI를 도입할 것으로 예상되는 세 가지 이유가 있습니다.

First, large companies spent much of 2023 experimenting with generative ai. Plenty of firms are using it to write the first drafts of documents, from legal contracts to marketing material. JPMorgan Chase, a bank, used the technology to analyse Federal Reserve meetings to try to glean insights for its trading desk.

첫째, 대기업들은 2023년 대부분을 제너레이티브 AI를 실험하는 데 보냈습니다. 많은 기업이 법률 계약서부터 마케팅 자료까지 문서의 초안을 작성하는 데 이 기술을 사용하고 있습니다. 은행인 JP모건 체이스는 이 기술을 사용하여 연방준비제도이사회 회의를 분석하여 트레이딩 데스크에 필요한 인사이트를 얻으려고 했습니다.

As the experimental phase winds down, firms are planning to deploy generative ai on a larger scale. That could mean using it to summarise recordings of meetings or supercharging research and development. A survey by kpmg, an audit firm, found that four-fifths of firms said they planned to increase their investment in it by over 50% by the middle of 2024.

실험 단계가 마무리됨에 따라 기업들은 제너레이티브 AI를 더 큰 규모로 배포할 계획을 세우고 있습니다. 즉, 회의 녹취록을 요약하거나 연구 개발을 강화하는 데 사용할 수 있습니다. 감사 회사인 KPMG의 설문 조사에 따르면, 기업의 5분의 4가 2024년 중반까지 제너레이티브 AI에 대한 투자를 50% 이상 늘릴 계획이라고 답했습니다.

Second, more ai products will hit the market. In late 2023 Microsoft rolled out an ai chatbot to assist users of its productivity software, such as Word and Excel. It launched the same thing for its Windows operating system. Google will follow suit, injecting ai into Google Docs and Sheets. Startups will pile in, too. In 2023 venture-capital investors poured over $36bn into generative ai, more than twice as much as in 2022.

둘째, 더 많은 AI 제품이 시장에 출시될 것입니다. 2023년 말, Microsoft는 Word와 Excel과 같은 생산성 소프트웨어 사용자를 지원하기 위해 AI 챗봇을 출시했습니다. Windows 운영 체제에도 동일한 기능을 출시했습니다. 구글도 그 뒤를 이어 구글 문서와 스프레드시트에 인공지능을 도입할 것입니다. 스타트업도 속속 등장할 것입니다. 2023년 벤처캐피털 투자자들은 제너레이티브 AI에 360억 달러 이상을 투자했는데, 이는 2022년보다 두 배 이상 증가한 금액입니다.

The third reason is talent. ai gurus are still in high demand. PredictLeads, a research firm, says about two-thirds of s&p 500 firms have posted job adverts mentioning ai. For those companies, 5% of adverts now mention the technology, up from an average of 2.5% over the past three years. But the market is easing. A survey by McKinsey, a consultancy, found that in 2023 firms said it was getting easier to hire for ai-related roles.

세 번째 이유는 인재입니다. AI 전문가에 대한 수요는 여전히 높습니다. 리서치 회사인 PredictLeads에 따르면 S&P 500대 기업 중 약 3분의 2가 AI를 언급하는 구인 광고를 게재했다고 합니다. 이러한 기업의 경우, 지난 3년간 평균 2.5%에서 현재 5%의 광고에서 AI 기술을 언급하고 있습니다. 하지만 시장은 완화되고 있습니다. 컨설팅 회사인 맥킨지의 설문조사에 따르면 2023년 기업들은 인공지능 관련 직무를 채용하는 것이 점점 더 쉬워지고 있다고 답했습니다.

Which firms will be the early adopters? Smaller ones will probably take the lead. That is what happened in previous waves of technology such as smartphones and the cloud. Tiddlers are usually more nimble and see technology as a way to gain an edge over bigger fish.

어떤 기업이 얼리 어답터가 될까요? 아마도 소규모 기업이 선두를 차지할 것입니다. 이는 스마트폰이나 클라우드와 같은 이전 기술의 물결에서 일어난 일입니다. 티들러는 일반적으로 더 민첩하고 기술을 더 큰 물고기보다 우위를 점할 수 있는 수단으로 여깁니다.

Among larger companies, data-centric firms, like those in health care and financial services, will be able to move fastest. That is because poor data management is a big risk for deploying ai. Managers worry about valuable data leaking out through ai tools. Firms without solid data management may have to reorganise their systems before it is feasible to deploy generative ai. Using the technology can feel like science fiction, but getting it to work safely is a much more humdrum affair. ■

대기업 중에서도 의료 및 금융 서비스 분야와 같은 데이터 중심 기업이 가장 빠르게 움직일 수 있습니다. 부실한 데이터 관리는 AI를 도입하는 데 있어 큰 위험 요소이기 때문입니다. 관리자는 귀중한 데이터가 AI 도구를 통해 유출되는 것을 걱정합니다. 데이터 관리가 탄탄하지 않은 기업은 제너레이티브 AI를 배포하기 전에 시스템을 재정비해야 할 수도 있습니다. 인공지능 기술을 사용하는 것은 공상과학 소설처럼 느껴질 수 있지만, 안전하게 작동하도록 하는 것은 훨씬 더 어려운 일입니다. ■

guy scriven, us technology editor, The Economist

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This article appeared in the Business section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2024 under the headline “AI goes to work”

https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/generative-ai-will-go-mainstream-in-2024