(Oct 14, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

[kyonmanchung]

(Oct 14, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

안녕하세요? 안녕하세요? 안녕하세요? How are you doing these days?

I need your response ASAP! 묵묵부답보다 가끔 의견교환 바랍니다.

1. IMF Cuts Forecast for Global Growth as Trade War Takes Its Toll, Bloomberg

- IMF가 지난주 새 경제전망(World Economic Outlook, WEO)을 내놓았는데, 지난 4월 전망 때보다 전반적으로 하향조정(2016년 7월이래 처음)하였습니다.

하향조정 주 요인은 세계무역 분쟁과 신흥국 시장의 긴장 확산.

세계경제 전체로는 올해 3.7% -내년 3.7%-내후년 3.7%로 전망하였는데, 4월 전망과 대비하면 올해는 같지만, 내년과 내후년은 각각 0.2%p 하향 조정한 것.

주요 국가별, 연도별 경제성장율 전망치를 보면(각각 올해- 내년- 내후년, %),

O South Korea 3.1 - 2.8 - 2.6

O United States 2.2 - 2.9 - 2.5

O Euro Area 2.4 - 2.0 - 1.9

O China 6.9 – 6.6 – 6.2

O Germany 2.5 - 1.9 - 1.9

O France 2.3 - 1.6 - 1.6

O Italy 1.5 - 1.2 - 1.0

O Spain 3.0 - 2.7 - 2.2

O Japan 1.7 - 1.1 - 0.9

O United Kingdom 1.7 - 1.4 - 1.5

O Brazil 1.0 - 1.4 - 2.4

O Mexico 2.0 - 2.2 - 2.5

그런데 만약 미-중간 무역전쟁이 더욱 확산(미국이 Trump말대로 $267bn 중국 수입품에 대해 관세 부과하고 중국이 이에 보복조치) 된다면, 세계경제는 2020년에 무려 0.8%p나 위축될 것으로 IMF가 전망하네요. 즉 분쟁이 길어지면 보다 빠르게 성장이 위축된다는 것.   

2. Italy Is the Creeping Concern for Finance Chiefs in Bali, Bloomberg

- 지난 월(10/8)부터 오늘(10/14)까지 Indonesia Bali에서 개최되고 있는 IMF/IBRD 연차총회(재무장관, 중앙은행총재 참석)에서 ‘Trade war between US and China’, “Rising interest rates’, 그리고 ‘Slowing global growth’ 등이 논의 되었지만, 실제로 가장 많이 거론된 사안은 비록 Agenda에는 없었지만, ‘Italy관련사항(재정)이었다고 하는군요.  

EU zone내 3위의 Italy경제(특히 재정)가 어려운 것은 이미 알려진 사실입니다만, 이번 총회에서 새롭게 부각된 이유는 현 ‘populist government’가 입안한 Rule-busting 예산안 때문.

현재 Italy의 GDP대비 정부부채 비율은 132%로 유럽에서 Greece다음으로 높은 수준. 따라서 의당 긴축예산을 편성해야 함에도 연정 상태인 현 정부가 국민의 지지를 의식, 재정지출 확대 예산안을 편성했다는 것. ,     

 지난 주말 재무부가 경영난에 빠진 국적항공사 ‘Alitalia’의 주식 취득 계획, 정부채권 매입에 대한 지원 등의 소문이 나돌아 이태리 국채가격 급락하는 둥 시장 불안.

지난 주 나온 IMF’s WEO에 따르면 Italian Economy는 올해 1.5% -내년 1.2%- 내후년 1.0% 성장할 것으로 예상. 아아, Roma 제국의 영광은 어디에!

<생각>

-인기 정치인에 의한 Populism이 국민경제를 망가뜨리는 현상이 세계적으로 확산되고 있음. 당장은 좋지만 나와 후손들의 미래에 빚을 떠넘기는 결과 초래하죠.

- 이번 연차총회에 참석한 김동연 기재부장관아 IMF르가르드총재와 ·WB김용총재에게 “北개방·개발에 적극적 역할해 달라” 요청하면서, 두 국제기구에 기금 출연을 약정함 IMF와는 기술협력기금을 연장해 한국이 IMF 회원국 기술지원 사업을 위해 2022년까지 5년간 2000만 달러를 기금에 추가 납입하기로 하였고, IBRD와는 2019~2022년까지 총 1억4000만 달러를 출연하기로 약정. 명목상 개도국 개발사업을 지원한다지만 남북경협 추진 비용의 일부라고 생각하니 사뭇 화가 남(그리고 교황은 공짜로 모셔 오나).

- 한편 지진과 쓰나미로 2천명이 넘은 사망자가 발생해 지금도 구호가 진행 증인 Indonesia에서 IMF/WB 총회를 강행할 수 밖에 없었는가 하는 생각도 들고요

 -> 요즘 내가 이상해 진 건지 세상이 이상해 진 건지? 앵이!

3. Cryptocurrencies suffer $18 billion drop in value over three days

- 지난주 중후반3일간 암호화폐 시가총액이 $18bn 감소하였군요. Bitcoin은 금요일 일부 회복하여 주간 5% 정도 내렸지만 다른 암호화폐 가격은 대부분 10%이상 하락.

하락 주요인은 Cryptocurrency거래소인 Bitfinex가 모든 예치금에 대해 지급정지를 하겠다고 밝혔기 때문(이유는 불명).

금요일 현재 모든 암호화폐의 시가총액은 $201bn로 지난 1월 시가총액 $820bn에 비해 크게 내렸음

<생각>

제가 작년 중반부터 암호화폐에 대한 부정적 의견을 수시 개진해 오면서, 특히 투자를 만류하였음. 이유는 신뢰성 있는 발권기관이 발행한 화폐가 아니고, 다양하게 분기가 되는 점, 가치척도로서의 기능이 미흡한 점, Block-chain기술로 보완했다지만 늘 hacking소지가 있다는 점 등등 기본적으로 화폐로서의 강제 통용력이 제약되어 지급결제수단으로 부적합하다는 판단에 근거합니다. ㅎㅎ

정견만 드림

PS: Weekly Topics 수신이 부담스러운 분들은 필히 회신 주세요.

1. IMF Cuts Forecast for Global Growth as Trade War Takes Its Toll, Bloomberg

By Andrew Mayeda

‎2018‎년 ‎10월‎ ‎9‎일‎ ‎오전‎ ‎10‎: ‎00

• Fund downgrades world outlook for first time since July 2016
• Turbulence in emerging markets another major factor, IMF says

The International Monetary Fund said the world economy is plateauing as the lender cut its growth forecast for the first time in more than two years, blaming escalating trade tensions and stresses in emerging markets.

On the eve of its annual meetings in Bali, Indonesia, the fund on Tuesday projected a global expansion of 3.7 percent this year and next, down from the 3.9 percent projected three months ago. It was the first downgrade since July 2016.

While the global economy is still on track to match last year’s pace, which was the strongest since 2011, the new outlook suggests fatigue is setting in and the overall performance masked mounting weakness in emerging markets from Brazil to Turkey.

The fund left its 2018 U.S. forecast unchanged but cut its expectation for next year, citing the impact of the trade conflict.

“The outlook is one of less balanced and more tentative expansion than we hoped for last April,” IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld said in the report.

Risks to the global outlook have risen in the last three months and tilt to the downside, the IMF said. Threats include a further inflaming of the trade war between the U.S and countries including China, and a sharper-than-expected rise in interest rates, which would accelerate capital flight from emerging markets.

Slipping a Little

The IMF cut its 2018 GDP forecast for the world, euro area and emerging markets

Source: International Monetary Fund's October World Economic Outlook

The warning comes as finance ministers and central bankers from the IMF’s 189 member nations prepare to meet this week in Bali, Indonesia for the annual meetings of the fund and its sister institution, the World Bank. The Trump administration’s trade dispute with China is expected to be front and center, as are the consequences of the Federal Reserve and other major central banks tightening monetary conditions after a decade of easy money.

If the trade war continues, it could take a significant bite out of global growth, according to the fund. It estimates global output could fall by more than 0.8 percent in 2020 and remain 0.4 percent below its trend line over the long term, in a scenario where Trump follows through on all his threats, including global duties on cars. Output could fall by more than 1.6 percent in China and over 0.9 percent in the U.S. next year, according to the IMF’s models.

The IMF’s cut to its outlook was broad-based. The fund downgraded its forecast for U.S. growth next year to 2.5 percent, down 0.2 percentage point from July, after factoring in the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and retaliatory duties by other nations. It left its U.S. growth projection for this year at 2.9 percent.

President Donald Trump has slapped tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods this year, and Beijing has retaliated with levies $110 billion of American products. The IMF projections don’t take into account Trump’s threat to expand the tariffs to effectively all of the more than $500 billion in goods the U.S. bought from China last year.

China Downgrade

The IMF also cut its outlook for China as a result of the tariffs, shaving its projection for growth next year to 6.2 percent, down 0.2 point from three months ago.

The euro area will expand 2 percent this year, down 0.2 point from July, as a result of weaker than expected growth in the first half of the year.

The fund upgraded its forecast for Japan slightly to 1.1 percent growth this year, up 0.1 point from July.

Several emerging markets had their forecasts cut, including Argentina, Brazil, Iran and Turkey, reflecting factors including tighter credit.

The IMF said it expects inflation to accelerate around the world this year, due largely to increasing commodity prices. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as energy, will vary from country to country, it said.

In the U.S., the core personal consumption expenditure index, the Fed’s preferred measure for inflation, will rise to 2.1 percent in 2018 and 2.3 percent next year, as the government’s fiscal stimulus pushes growth above potential, the IMF said.

Productivity Challenge

Over the longer term, the IMF sees aging populations and sluggish productivity growth as a major challenge to advanced economies. Global growth will slow to 3.6 percent by 2022-2023, as growth in rich nations falls back to potential, it said.

Most of the “meager gains” from growth have gone to the well off, fueling support for protectionism and anti-establishment leaders, said Obstfeld. “Policymakers must take a long-term perspective to address this malaise. Inclusive fiscal policies, educational

investments, and ensuring access to adequate health care can reduce inequality and are key priorities,” he said.

2. Italy Is the Creeping Concern for Finance Chiefs in Bali, Bloomberg

By Alessandro Speciale and Birgit Jennen

‎2018‎년 ‎10월‎ ‎13‎일‎ ‎오후‎ ‎4‎:‎58

• Clarity sought on euro nation on sidelines of IMF meetings
• ECB President Mario Draghi urges everyone to ‘calm down’

As if trade wars, rising interest rates and slowing global growth weren’t enough, the world’s finance chiefs are zeroing in on another source of concern: Italy.

The populist government’s rule-busting budget plans and accusatory rhetoric against its European partners have repeatedly cropped up among ministers and central bankers at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Bali. Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria, at his IMF debut, had his work cut out trying to reassure colleagues that his country is committed to the euro and will put debt on a downward path.

The heightened attention on the euro zone’s third-biggest economy is a sign that, almost 10 years after the start of the region’s sovereign debt crisis, the bloc remains fragile in the eyes of investors and observers. The fact that Italy is in crisis just as the European Central Bank considers slowly withdrawing stimulus is compounding that risk

“The very first thing is to calm down with the tone,” ECB President Mario Draghi told reporters on Saturday in Indonesia. “I’m confident that the authorities -- and by the way, all parties, not only Italy -- all parties will in the end find a compromise solution and agreement.”

Puzzled Requests

Italy’s plight isn’t on the official meeting agenda and hasn’t been discussed at Group of 20 and Group of Seven sessions. Yet on the sidelines, it has been one of the most-discussed issues, according to participants who asked not to be named because discussions aren’t public. Most conversations involved puzzled requests for clarity on the government’s plans and on whether it will wage an all-out confrontation with the European Union.

The confusion is justified. The two coalition partners -- the anti-immigration League and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement -- have defied investors and international institutions as they vie for voters’ attention by hinting at radical measures.

Read more: Italy’s Fiscal Fight: The Long and Winding Road to Budget Day

On Friday, Tria -- an economy professor with no previous political experience -- had to rebut rumors that the Italian treasury would take a stake in beleaguered national carrier Alitalia and support Italians who buy the country’s debt. Amid the noise, the spread between Italian and German bond yields rose this week to the highest level in five years.

Debt Ratio

“People read very carefully what is decided on the budget and what happens in the real economy,” Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco said late on Friday.

While the details of Italy’s byzantine politics may escape the world’s economic and financial elite in Bali, one fact is widely understood: government debt is equivalent to 132 percent of economic output. The only euro-area nation with a higher burden is Greece, which almost slid out of the currency union amid a financial meltdown in 2015.

Should borrowing costs rise further, the sustainability of that debt could be in doubt. That would cripple Italian banks, the biggest holders of the bonds, and bring about a new crisis for the euro.

For now, European partners see the debt as sustainable, at least in the medium term, according to three people familiar with the issue.

“We should not over rush into panicky conclusions,” Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot said Thursday in an interview. “The rhetoric is definitely worrying, but I think as central bankers we should always look at the facts” and “the fundamentals in Italy are not all that bad.”

The European budget review process is due to start on Monday, and EU Commissioner for Economics Affairs Pierre Moscovici, who has sparred with Italian government leaders in recent days, and Tria have both made conciliatory noises. Still, IMF delegates from around the world -- and particularly Italy’s neighbors -- are keeping a watchful eye.

“There are two big topics which cause concern,” Swiss Finance Minister Ueli Maurer said in an interview. “One is trade restrictions between China and U.S. and how these can be eliminated. The second issue is related to the high levels of debt in developing countries like Argentina -- or a country like Italy.”

3. Cryptocurrencies suffer $18 billion drop in value over three days, CNBC

Kate Rooney | @Kr00ney

Oct 13, 2018. Published 10 Hours Ago Updated 8 Hours Ago

• The entire market capitalization for cryptocurrencies fell by $18 billion over the course of three days, according to CoinMarketCap.com.
• Bitcoin ended the week down 5 percent but other top cryptocurrencies XRP and ether were down 12 percent and 18 percent, respectively.
• The sell-off began after reports that cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex was going to suspend all deposits from fiat currencies, according to Brian Kelly, founder and CEO of BKCM.

This was a tough week for cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin finally began to stabilize Friday, but not before the total cryptocurrency market lost $18 billion of its already waning value in the course of a few days.

The world's largest and most widely owned digital asset began its slide Wednesday evening and fell below $6,200 for the first time in a month, according to data from CoinDesk. Bitcoin was mostly stable in the $6,200 range as of Friday afternoon but had kicked this week off well above $6,500, ending the week about 5 percent lower.

Other cryptocurrencies, known as "alt coins," fared much worse. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has dropped 12 percent in a week while the third largest XRP is down 18 percent in seven days. Bitcoin Cash is down 14 percent, while EOS has fallen 10 percent, according to CoinMarketCap.com.

The total market capitalization for cryptocurrencies was $201 billion on Friday, down from $219 billion on Tuesday. The market has struggled to recover to anywhere near crypto's $820 billion peak in January.

Bitcoin's one-week performance 

Prices from October 5 through October 12, 2018

The sell-off began after rumors that cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex was going to suspend all deposits from fiat currencies, according to Brian Kelly, founder and CEO of BKCM.

close dialog

"That spooked investors a little bit — it was a main cause of the downdraft but we're seeing prices mostly back to normal," Kelly said. The exchange posted a response to the reports and reassured investors that "Bitfinex is not insolvent, and a constant stream of Medium articles claiming otherwise is not going to change this."

Kelly highlighted also positive regulatory news out of Asia that may have aided bitcoin's recovery. Financial regulators in South Korea will reportedly announce an official stance on initial coin offerings in November. Regulators in Singapore meanwhile will help existing cryptocurrency firms set up local bank accounts, according to a report from Bloomberg.

Stock market correlation

Those who have billed bitcoin as a store of value, or "digital gold," may have been especially disappointed by its performance this week. As bitcoin tumbled, the U.S. stock market also dropped as much as 1,300 points in two days, its biggest sell-off since February.

Joe DiPasquale, CEO of cryptocurrency fund of hedge funds BitBull Capital, said the uncertainty around stocks bled into cryptocurrency markets.

"When we saw equity markets crumble, there was some fear in the cryptocurrency market as well," he said. "I think there was an initial jolt due to larger market activity and the sell off."

Bitcoin has been hovering between $6,000 and $8,000 since the beginning of summer. DiPasquale said more positive crypto-related news, like an investment from Yale's endowment, or an ETF winning approval could be the bump cryptocurrencies need need to break out of that range.

The U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Community Affairs held a hearing on regulation this week, and multiple senators brought up concerns about the possibility for nefarious use cases like money laundering. But the most vocal crypto skeptic was economist Nouriel Roubini, who is nicknamed "Dr. Doom" for predicting the 2008 financial crisis.

Roubini called cryptocurrencies the "mother of all scams," and called its 50 percent losses this year "crypto-apocalypse." The total market capitalization for cryptocurrencies is down by more than 60 percent, according to data from CoinMarketCap.com.

Peter Van Valkenburgh, director of research at Washington-based lobbying group Coin Center, took a starkly different stance. While he acknowledged that it's not widely accepted as a payment method, Van Valkenburgh said that aspects of it are still promising.

Virgin Hyperloop tickets will cost 'no more than a high-speed trainline,' Richard Branson says, CNBC

Ryan Browne | @Ryan_Browne_

Published 5:04 AM ET Tue, 9 Oct 2018 Updated 1:44 AM ET Wed, 10 Oct 2018

• Virgin Hyperloop One is "very close" to deploying the technology in India, Richard Branson told CNBC.
• Branson said the price of a ticket will cost "no more than a high-speed trainline ticket."
• Work on Branson's hyperloop in India will start next year, the Virgin founder said.

Billionaire Virgin founder Richard Branson said Tuesday that tickets for his hyperloop transport system will cost no more than that of a high-speed rail fare.

 

Virgin Hyperloop One, which Branson has been chairman of since December last year, is "very close" to deploying the technology in India and is in talks with Dubai and Saudi Arabia about rolling out the technology in the Middle East as well, Branson told CNBC at the annual Barclays Asia Forum in Singapore.

Hyperloops are transportation systems that propel pods through low-pressure tubes, aimed at avoiding air resistance and traveling at ultra-fast speeds. The idea is considered to be the brainchild of visionary tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, who drew up plans for the technology back in 2013.

Speaking about the price of Hyperloop One fares, Branson said: "It will be no more than a high-speed trainline ticket, and potentially we'll be able to bring the price down further than that."

Branson said work will begin on Hyperloop One's first flagship hyperloop system next year, and will cut travel times from five hours to "just over half an hour."

I mean the Indian government have given the go-ahead for Mumbai to Pune," Branson said. "It's the road in India, takes five hours to drive down it, it's a nightmare, lots of accidents."

"They've said we can build a hyperloop right along the side of the road and cut the journey time down to just over half an hour. That will start to be built next year and it will be the first sort of flagship Virgin hyperloop that will be built anywhere in the world."

Branson said he expected demand for the technology to be "gigantic" once that first project comes to fruition.

"So Dubai, we're talking to them about connecting the new airport to the old airport," he said. "In Saudi Arabia, we're in discussions about a hyperloop going through the desert. It's a business I think which has got a fantastic future."

In Dubai, Virgin Hyperloop One has partnered with port operator DP World to launch the technology. It also teamed up with Saudi Arabia earlier this year to bring the hyperloop to the Arab kingdom.

Branson's Virgin is not alone in the field, and counts Musk's SpaceX, Hyperloop Transportation Technologies and Canadian firm TransPod as competitors.

[모러바(volt)]

감사합니다.오늘도 지식을 쌓고 갑니다.