BOK likely to freeze key rate this month 한국은행, 이번 달 기준금리 동결할 듯

[김우정]

한국은행이 11월30일에 열릴 금통위에서 기준금리를 동경할 것으로 보입니다.
가장 큰 이유는 미국연준이 지난 FOMC에서 현재 금리를 유지했기때문입니다.
한은의 중요관심사는 중동사태에 따른 유가의 움직임입니다.
일부 애널리스트들은 미국의 긴축사이클이 내년 상반기에 끝나면 기준금리하락을 예상합니다.
 
BOK likely to freeze key rate this month
한국은행, 이번 달 기준금리 동결할 듯

By Lee Kyung-min 이경민 기자
Posted : 2023-11-02 16:49 Updated : 2023-11-02 17:39
Korea Times

Korea and U.S. key interest rates

Stock market closes higher on eased rate hike concerns
금리인상우려완화로 주식시장 상승마감

The Bank of Korea (BOK) is likely to freeze its policy rate this month, as aided by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s less hawkish-than-expected stance overnight and subsequent reduced risk of a further rate gap between the two countries, Thursday.
한국은행(BOK)은 미국 연준이 예상보다 덜 공격적인 입장을 취하고 이에 따라 두 나라 간의 금리 격차가 더 이상 확대되지 않을 것으로 예상되어, 이번 달에 정책금리를 동결할 것으로 보인다.


The U.S. central bank’s rate-setting members held the key federal funds rate steady in a target range between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent, Nov.1 (local time), about 2 percentage points higher than Korea’s 3.5 percent.
미국 중앙은행은 11월 1일 현지 시간에 중요한 연방기금 금리를 5.25%에서 5.5% 사이의 목표 범위로 유지했으며, 이는 한국의 3.5%보다 약 2% 높은 것이다.

Any further widening in the already-significant gap will trigger sharp depreciation of Korea’s currency against the dollar and a capital outflow, a combination of dreaded development for the country bogged down by a rapid build-up of household debts and sustained high inflation over the past few months.
이미 상당한 격차가 더 확대된다면 한국통화의 달러에 대한 급격한 약세와 자본 유출이 발생할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 지난 몇 달간 가계부채가 급증하고 지속적으로 높은 인플레이션에 시달리는 나라에게 두려운 전개가 복합적으로 다가오는 것이다.

Experts say Korea will be able to shift to eased monetary steps in the latter half of next year, provided that the U.S. central bank puts a stop to the current contraction cycle, as indicated by long bond yield rises straining financial conditions.
전문가들은 현재의 수축주기를 중단시키기 위해 미국 중앙은행이 현재의 금리 압박을 늦추는 방식으로 내년 하반기에 한국이 완화된 통화정책으로 전환할 수 있을 것으로 예상하고 있다. 이를 위해서는 장기채권금리 상승에 의한 금융여건의 압박을 늦추기 위한 조치가 필요하다.

Korea’s central bank will hold a rate-setting meeting, Nov. 30, to determine whether the sixth consecutive rate freeze last month will be extended.
한국의 중앙은행은 11월 30일에 금융통화위원회를 개최하여 지난 달에 이어 여섯 번째로 이어질지를 결정할 예정이다.

Chief among the factors are looming fears of an economic recession, exacerbated by heightened project financing risks involving heavy borrowings by real estate developers. Also at play are continued rises both in household debt and prices of goods and services. Soaring global oil prices due to the war between Israel and Hamas will weigh on the resource-scarce country feeling an extended pinch from years of rising energy prices.
주요 요인 중 하나는 부동산개발회사들의 대량차입을 포함한 과도한 프로젝트 자금조달 위험의 고조된 우려이다. 가계부채와 상품 및 서비스 가격의 지속적인 상승도 영향을 미친다. 이스라엘과 하마스 간의 전쟁으로 글로벌 유가가 치솟아, 에너지가격 상승이 지속된 에너지가격상승으로부터 오랫동안 고통받는 자원부족 국가에 무거운 압력을 가할 것이다.

The BOK said in an Oct. 30 report that the pace of inflation inching down will be slower than expected due to the Middle East crisis.
한국은행은 10월 30일 보고서에서 중동위기로 인한 인플레이션 속도가 예상보다 더 느리게 진행될 것으로 예상된다고 밝혔다.

“The timing of inflation moderating from the current pace will be delayed, due mostly to sustained elevated prices of oil and agricultural products,” it said.
"현재 속도에서의 인플레이션이 둔화되기 시작하는 시기는 대부분 유지된 높은 유가와 농산물가격 때문에 늦어질 것이다." 라고 밝혔다.

BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong said Wednesday that consumer price forecasts will have to undergo major revisions, depending on oil prices.
이창용 한국은행 총재는 수요일 소비자 물가 전망은 유가에 따라 크게 수정되어야 할 것이라고 말했다.

“We have anticipated that oil prices would hover around $84 (112,854 won) next year, but the figure exceeding $90 will prompt us to change a lot in our projection,” he said in a seminar co-hosted by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Seoul.
그는 서울 대한상공회의소 공동주최로 열린 세미나에서 "내년 유가가 84달러(11만2,854원)를 맴돌 것으로 예상해왔지만 90달러를 넘어서는 수치는 우리의 전망에 많은 변화를 가져올 것"이라고 말했다.

His comments on price volatility of goods will add to the central bank’s judgment on whether the current neutral rate which the bank’s rate-setting committee considers restrictive should be tightened further to curb household debt.
상품의 가격 변동성에 대한 그의 언급은 은행의 금융통화위원회가 제한적으로 간주하고 있는 현재의 중립금리를 가계부채를 억제하기위해 더 강화해야 하는지에 대한 중앙은행의 판단을 더 가중시킬 것이다.

Local analysts say the central bank will be able to begin easing the rate cycle in the latter half, but the U.S. Fed must make the first move.
국내 애널리스트들은 한은이 하반기부터 금리 사이클 완화에 들어갈 수 있겠지만 미연준이 먼저 나서야 한다고 말하고 있다.

“Inflation will dip to the central bank’s target range of 2 percent led by weakening consumer demand overall in the third quarter of next year,” Shinhan Securities analyst Ahn Jae-kyun said. “The central bank will then be able to lower policy rates twice in the remainder of the year.”
안재균 신한증권 애널리스트는 "내년 3분기에는 전반적인 소비자 수요 위축으로 물가상승률이 중앙은행의 목표치인 2%대로 떨어질 것"이라며 "남은 기간 두차례 정책금리를 내릴 수 있을 것"이라고 전망했다.

Hi Investment & Securities researcher Park Sang-hyun said U.S. market watchers largely agree that the Fed’s tightening cycle will end sometime in the first half, as inferred by comments on long bonds-oriented tighter financial conditions.
박상현 하이투자증권 연구원은 미국시장 전문가들은 장기채권 위주의 긴축 금융 상황에 대한 언급에서 유추되듯이 연준의 긴축사이클이 상반기 중에 끝날 것이라는 데 대체로 동의한다고 말했다.
 
“Long-term bond yields stabilizing, driven by U.S. Treasury resolving supply-demand mismatch in the market, will help the Fed with shifting its longstanding hawkish stance with ease certain to unburden the BOK from closing the policy rate gap,” Park said.
박 연구원은 "미 재무부가 시장의 수급 불일치를 해소함으로써 장기채권 수익률이 안정되면 연준이 정책금리 격차를 줄이는 데 부담을 덜면서 오랜 매파적 입장을 전환하는 데 도움이 될 것"이라고 말했다.

Korea’s stock market ended higher, mostly on a recovery in investor sentiment. The main bourse KOSPI ended at 2,343.12, up 41.56 points or 1.81 percent from the previous session. The tech-heavy Kosdaq closed at 772.84, up 33.61 points or 4.55 percent from a day earlier.
한국 주식시장은 투자심리 회복에 힘입어 상승 마감했다. 코스피는 전장보다 41.56포인트(1.81%) 오른 2,343.12로 장을 마쳤다. 코스닥은 전날보다 33.61포인트(4.55%) 오른 772.84로 장을 마쳤다.

Korean currency closed at 1,342.9 won against U.S. dollar, gaining 14.4 won from the previous day.  
달러화에 대한 원화 환율은 전날보다 14.4원 오른 1,342.9원에 거래를 마쳤다.

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