대만 영공을 침범한 중국의 풍선들

[위종민]

지난 월요일부터 중국의 풍선 4개가 대만 영공을 표류중이라고 합니다. 

월요일 저녁 첫 풍선이 3만 피트 상공에서 영공에 진입했고 북동쪽 섬을 가로질러 자정 17분 전에 사라졌고, 화요일엔 3개가 대만 중앙을 가로질러갔는데 고도는 12,000~24,000피트였다고 합니다. 대만 공군의 패트리어트 포대와 F-16V가 배치된 주요 군사시설 인근을 표류했다고 하네요. 대만 국방부에선 12월에 발견된 풍선이 기상관측용 풍선인 가능성이 있다고 발표했다고 하지만 궤적을 추적중인 것으로 봐선 아직 정체가 불확실한 듯 합니다. 

https://news.usni.org/2024/01/03/four-chinese-balloons-violate-airspace-over-taiwan-says-defense-ministry

Four Chinese Balloons Violate Airspace Over Taiwan, Says Defense Ministry

AARON-MATTHEW LARIOSA

JANUARY 3, 2024 6:07 PM

Flight path of Chinese balloons that over flew Taiwan. MND Photo

A quartet of Chinese balloons with an unknown purpose have drifted into Taipei’s territorial airspace since Monday. The fights mark a significant escalation from Beijing only a week from Taiwan’s 2024 elections, according to one defense analyst.

While these balloons are not the first to enter Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), with one floating near Taiwan last month, they are the first to violate Taiwanese airspace over the self-governed island. The nature of these balloons is unclear, with Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense claiming that December’s balloon was probably meteorological.

However, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense’s PLA activities in the water and airspace, a report released that details Chinese military movements within the ADIZ. In Monday and Tuesday’s releases, the balloons heading, altitude and detection are included, indicating that the Taiwanese military may affiliate these balloons with the Chinese military

The first balloon to enter Taiwanese airspace on Monday evening, drifting in from the Taiwan Strait at an altitude of 30,000 feet. The balloon cut across the island on a northeastern heading. According to the Jan. 3 MND report, the balloon “disappeared” 17 minutes before midnight.

Of the four balloons to enter the ADIZ on Tuesday, three of them cut directly across the center of Taiwan. These balloons were at a substantially lower altitude than Monday’s, with the lowest cruising at 12,000 feet and the highest at 24,000 feet, according to the MND. Moreover, these balloons were drifting into Taiwan’s territorial airspace during the daytime.

Quick update to include altitudes! pic.twitter.com/EyOG80n6Sv

— Ben Lewis 🇺🇦 (@OfficialBen_L) January 3, 2024

The MND graphic also shows one of the balloons seemingly disappearing over central Taiwan, with its track abruptly ending. Of the three balloons that drifted over Taiwan yesterday, only one fully transited Taiwan’s ADIZ and territorial airspace.

While Chinese balloons have previously conducted surveillance activities, as seen in incidents last year over the United States, Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense claimed the balloon spotted in the ADIZ in December was likely for weather monitoring.

Chinese officials also have claimed the balloon shot down last summer off the coast of South Carolina – which had a surveillance package the size of a small bus – was a weather balloon as recently as last week.

In contrast to last month, the balloons this week have not only violated Taiwanese territorial airspace, but also have drifted almost directly over or near major Taiwanese military installations, such as Ching Chuan Kang and Chiayi Air Bases, which host the Republic of China Air Force’s Patriot missile batteries and new F-16V Vipers.

According to independent defense analyst Ben Lewis, these balloons muddle a redline previously set forth by Taipei on the entry of foreign aircraft. However, this may be due to the previous classification of these balloons.

“This represents a significant escalation in the PRC’s coercive actions against Taiwan. The MND’s stated policy is that any military aircraft entering Taiwan’s territorial airspace will be considered a “first strike.” When the balloons first began being included in their daily reports, the MND stated that they assessed the balloons to be meteorological, which explains why they were not shot down, but it is unclear if that assessment can be applied to every balloon tracked,” Lewis said.

Lewis added that the entry of the balloons into Taiwanese territorial airspace proper is the latest in China’s coercive activities, which come a few weeks before the self-governed island’s 2024 elections.

“With less than two weeks from Taiwan’s elections, this is an incredibly provocative move by Beijing. The use of these balloons to violate Taiwan’s territorial airspace, including at altitudes that could impact local civilian air travel, is both incredibly irresponsible and another way Beijing has blurred the lines between civilian and military activities.”

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[백선호]

12,000~24,000 피트면 그다지 높은 고도는 아니네요.

[위종민]

일반 항공기로 충분히 확인가능한 고도라 기상관측용 라디오존데일 가능성이 높아 보입니다.