Bank of Korea lowers 2024 growth outlook to 2.1 %한은, 2024년 성장 2.1%로 하향전망

[김우정]

한국은행이 예상대로 기준금리를 7번째 연속으로 동결했습니다.
올해 성장전망 1.4%는 유지했고 내년 GDP성장율은 2.2%에서 2.1%로 하향전망했습니다.
제한적인 통화정책 기조가 장기화되고 소비회복 둔화가 더 가중되기 때문이라고 설명했습니다.
미국연준의 기준금리인상싸이클이 끝날 조짐이 보이면서 한은의 기준금리인하에 대한 기대도 해봅니다.
 
Bank of Korea lowers 2024 growth outlook to 2.1 percent
한은, 2024년 성장 2.1%로 하향전망

By Lee Kyung-min 이경민 기자
Posted : 2023-11-30 16:38 Updated : 2023-11-30 16:42
Korea Times

Key rate left unchanged at 3.5%
기준금리 3.5% 유지

Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Rhee Chang-yong speaks during a press briefing at the central bank in Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap 이창용 한국은행 총재가 목요일 서울 중앙은행에서 언론 브리핑을 하면서 말하고 있다. 연합

 The Bank of Korea (BOK) lowered its 2024 economic growth outlook for Korea to 2.1 percent, Thursday, down from a forecast of 2.2 percent made in August, citing weakening consumption and restrictive monetary policies at home and abroad. This year’s growth projection of 1.4 percent was left unrevised.
한국은행은 목요일 소비약화와 국내외 제한적인 통화정책을 이유로 한국의 2024년 경제 성장 전망을 8월에 세운 2.2%보다 낮은 2.1%로 낮췄다. 올해 성장 전망인 1.4%는 수정하지 않았다.

The forecast came hours after the Monetary Policy Board of the central bank left the key rate unchanged at 3.5 percent. It was the seventh consecutive rate freeze after the BOK held the rate steady in February, April, May, July, August and October.
이 전망은 한은 금융통화위원회가 기준금리를 3.5%로 동결한 지 몇 시간 만에 나온 것이다. 이적은 한은이 2월, 4월, 5월, 7월, 8월, 10월에 금리를 유지한 이후 7번째 연속 금리동결이다.

BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong said the board’s unanimous decision was warranted by high uncertainties in household debt growth and external market conditions, coupled with higher-than-expected inflation continuing to slow down.
이창용 한국은행 총재는 예상보다 높은 물가상승률과 함께 가계부채 증가와 대외시장 상황의 불확실성이 높아 금통위의 만장일치 결정이 타당하다고 말했다.

“The currently available information suggests that both concerns about a further tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks have been alleviated,” he said during a press briefing.
그는 언론 브리핑에서 "현재 이용 가능한 정보는 미국 연준의 추가긴축에 대한 우려와 지정학적 리스크가 모두 완화되었음을 시사한다"고 말했다.

Global economic growth is projected to continue slowing, he added, driven by prolonged restrictive monetary policy stances in major countries. Inflation in major countries continues to slow down, but is still high, while core inflation is declining at a slow pace. Government bond yields in major countries have fallen significantly and the U.S. dollar has weakened considerably.
주요국의 제한적인 통화정책 기조가 장기화되면서 세계경제 성장세가 둔화세를 지속할 것으로 전망된다고 그는 덧붙였다. 주요국의 물가 상승률은 지속적으로 둔화되고 있지만 여전히 높은 수준인 반면 근원인플레이션은 더딘 속도로 하락하고 있다. 주요국의 국채수익률은 크게 하락했고 미 달러화는 상당히 약세를 보였다.

“We view that global economic growth and global financial markets are likely to be affected by international oil prices and the global inflation slowdown. We also have to consider the monetary policies of major countries and their effects as well as developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict.”
"우리는 세계경제 성장과 세계 금융시장이 국제유가와 인플레이션 둔화의 영향을 받을 가능성이 높다고 보고 있다. 우리는 또한 주요국의 통화 정책과 그 영향, 그리고 이스라엘-하마스 분쟁의 전개도 고려해야 한다."

Korea is expected to display improved economic growth next year, led by an ongoing recovery in exports, according to the governor.
이총재에 따르면, 한국은 내년에도 지속적인 수출 회복에 힘입어 경제 성장이 개선될 것으로 예상된다.

“This year’s GDP growth is projected to be consistent with the August forecast of 1.4 percent,” the governor said. “The figure for next year will pick up to 2.1 percent, slightly lower than the August forecast of 2.2 percent, due mostly to prolonged restrictive monetary policy stances from within the country and abroad, compounded further by a slowdown in the recovery of consumption.”
"올해 국내총생산(GDP) 성장률은 8월 전망치인 1.4%와 일치할 것으로 예상된다,"라고 총재는 말했다. "내년 수치는 8월 전망치인 2.2%보다 약간 낮은 2.1%까지 성장할 전망인데, 이는 대부분 국내외의 제한적인 통화정책 기조가 장기화되고 소비회복 둔화가 더 가중되었기 때문이다."

The revised down figure came on the heels of Statistics Korea’s October industrial production data released earlier in the day. The data showed production, consumption and investment declined 1.6 percent, 0.8 percent and 3.3 percent from a month earlier, respectively.
이 같은 하향 조정된 수치는 이날 오전 발표된 통계청의 10월 산업생산 자료에 따른 것이다. 이 자료는 생산, 소비, 투자가 한 달 전보다 각각 1.6%, 0.8%, 3.3% 감소한 것으로 나타났다.

The total industrial production index, excluding seasonally adjusted agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors, fell 1.6 percent from the month prior, which was the sharpest decline since April 2020 when it dropped 1.8 percent.
계절 조정 농림어업 부문을 제외한 총산업생산지수는 전월보다 1.6% 감소해 2020년 4월 1.8% 감소한 이후 가장 큰 폭으로 감소했다.

The governor said inflation this year will stand at 3.6 percent, and gradually moderate to below 3 percent from 2024 and onward. The projected figure is 2.6 percent for 2024 and 2.1 percent for 2025.
이총재는 올해 물가상승률이 3.6%에 머물고 2024년부터 3% 미만으로 점차 완만해질 것이라고 말했다. 예상치는 2024년 2.6%, 2025년 2.1%이다.

“Inflation is projected to maintain its underlying slowing trend due to a weakening of demand-side pressures and declines in global oil and agricultural product prices,” he said.
그는 "인플레이션은 수요측 압력약화와 글로벌 석유 및 농산물 가격 하락으로 인해 근본적인 둔화추세를 유지할 것으로 예상된다."라고 말했다.
 
LG Economic Research Institute research fellow Cho Young-moo said consumption and investment will continue to be sluggish since a recovery in semiconductor manufacturing is not clear.
조영무 LG경제연구원 연구위원은 반도체 제조업의 회복세가 뚜렷하지 않아 소비와 투자부진이 이어질 것이라고 말했다.

“High prices of goods and services and high interest rates will continue, because central bank policies tend to have a gradual market impact with a time lag of a couple of months,” he said. “The central bank will find it hard to raise the key rate due to unstable economic conditions and money market trends.”
그는 "중앙은행 정책이 두세 달 시차를 두고 점진적인 시장 영향을 미치는 경향이 있기 때문에 상품과 서비스의 높은 가격과 높은 금리는 지속될 것"이라며 "중앙은행은 불안정한 경제상황과 자금시장 동향 등으로 기준금리 인상이 어려울 것"이라고 말했다.
 
Also factored in were heightened expectations of an end to policy rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), and moderating volatility in global oil prices under the context of stabilizing geopolitical risks worldwide, according to Lee In-ho, the former chairman of the Korea Economic Association.
이인호 전 한국경제학회 회장에 따르면 미국 연준의 정책금리 인상종료에 대한 기대감이 높아지고 전 세계 지정학적 리스크가 안정되는 가운데 글로벌 유가의 변동성이 완화된 것도 요인으로 작용했다고 한다.
 
“The Fed is showing signs of ending a cycle of years of rate hikes, buoyed by favorable U.S. price indicators. Stable international oil prices are easing pressure on the central bank to resort to a key rate hike to manage inflation.”
"연준이 양호한 미국 물가 지표에 힘입어 수년간 이어진 금리 인상 사이클을 끝낼 조짐을 보이고 있다. 국제유가가 안정되면서 인플레이션 관리를 위해 중앙은행이 기준금리 인상에 의존해야 한다는 압력이 완화되고 있다."

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