Korean economy to start shrinking by 2050 2050년까지 저출산 문제가 해결되지 않으면 한국경제 위축

[김우정]

2050년까지 저출산문제가 해결되지않으면 우리경제의 위축이 시작된다는 한은 보고서입니다.
2025년 65세이상인구가 20%를 돌파하고 2045년에는 OECD 회원국중 노인비율이 최고가 됩니다. 
노동시장대책, 집값안정, 가계부채안정, 수두권 집중완화 등이 구조적 대책으로 제시되었습니다.
도시인구집중도가 OECD평균이 되면 출산율이 0.4명, 15세~39세 고용율이 OECD평균이되면 0.1명 증가합니다.
그 어느 해법도 쉬워보이지 않습니다.
 
Korean economy to start shrinking by 2050 if low birthrate unaddressed: BOK report
한은보고서: 2050년까지 저출산 문제가 해결되지 않으면 한국경제 위축시작
 
By Anna J. Park 박안나 기자
Posted : 2023-12-03 16:36 Updated : 2023-12-03 17:49
Korea Times

Newborn babies are seen in cribs at a postpartum care center in Anyang, Gyeonggi Province, July 27. Newsis 7월27일 경기 안양시의 한 산후조리원에서 갓 태어난 아기들이 아기침대에서 보인다. 뉴시스

  
If Korea fails to raise the current birthrate — the lowest in the world — with appropriate policy measures, the country's growth rate may fall below zero percent by 2050 with its population dropping below 40 million by 2070, the central bank warned in a report.
한국이 적절한 정책적 조치로 세계에서 가장 낮은 현재의 출산율을 높이는데 실패한다면, 한국의 성장률은 2050년까지 0% 이하로 떨어질 수 있고, 인구는 2070년까지 4천만 명 이하로 떨어질 수도 있다고 중앙은행은 보고서에서 경고했다.

According to the report released by the Economic Research Institute of the Bank of Korea (BOK) on Sunday, the young generation's growing uncertainties over employment, housing and childcare are analyzed to be the primary causes of the country's severe low birth rate.
한국은행 경제연구원이 일요일 발표한 보고서에 따르면, 청년세대의 취업, 주거, 육아에 대한 불확실성이 커지고 있는 것이 심각한 저출산의 주요 원인으로 분석되고 있다.

Korea's total fertility rate — the average number of expected births per woman aged 15 to 49 — is 0.81, as of the first quarter of this year, which is the lowest figure among OECD member countries. The rate of decline is also the fastest out of 217 countries and regions around the world.
15세에서 49세 사이의 여성 1인당 평균 예상 출생아 수인 한국의 합계출산율은 올해 1분기 현재 0.81명으로 OECD 회원국 중 가장 낮은 수치이다. 감소속도도 전 세계 217개 국가 및 지역 중 가장 빠르다.

If the current trend continues, Korea is expected to become a super-aged society with the proportion of people aged 65 and older reaching 20.3 percent of the population by 2025. By 2046, it is projected to become the country with the highest proportion of the elderly among OECD member countries.
현재의 추세가 계속된다면, 한국은 2025년까지 65세 이상 인구의 비율이 인구의 20.3%에 이를 정도로 초고령 사회가 될 것으로 예상된다. 2046년에는 OECD 회원국 중 노인 비율이 가장 높은 국가가 될 것으로 예상된다.

The report's analysis of the fertility rate trend without factoring in any policy interventions shows that there is a 90 percent chance that the total population could fall below 40 million by 2070. Additionally, the same analysis model warns that there is a 68 percent probability that Korea's growth rate falls below zero percent by 2050.
정책적 개입을 고려하지 않고 출산율 추세를 분석한 그 보고서는 2070년까지 총 인구가 4천만 명 아래로 떨어질 가능성이 90%라는 것을 보여준다. 게다가, 같은 분석모델은 2050년까지 한국의 성장률이 0% 아래로 떨어질 확률이 68%라고 경고하고 있다.

Structural policies required to address low birthrate
저출산 대책으로 구조적 정책 필요

The paper identified structural policies as the most crucial measures to address the low birthrate of the country. Such structural policies include measures on the labor market, stabilizing housing prices, household debt and easing concentration in the metropolitan area, as well as alleviating competition in the education system.
이 보고서는 한국의 저출산 문제를 해결하기 위한 가장 중요한 대책으로 구조적 정책을 꼽았다. 이러한 구조적 정책에는 교육제도의 경쟁완화 뿐만 아니라 노동시장 대책, 집값안정, 가계부채안정, 수도권집중 완화 등이 포함된다.

As of 2022, the employment rate for people aged 15 to 29 in Korea stands at 46.6 percent, which is significantly lower than the OECD average of 54.6 percent. When compared with the employment rate for individuals aged 25 to 39, Korea's figure — 75.3 percent — is much lower than the OECD average of 87.4 percent.
2022년 현재, 한국의 15세에서 29세의 고용률은 46.6%인데, 이것은 OECD 평균인 54.6%보다 현저히 낮다. 25세에서 39세의 개인의 고용률과 비교했을 때, 한국의 수치인 75.3%는 OECD 평균인 87.4%보다 훨씬 낮다.

The quality of youth employment is also worsening with an increasing preval‎ence of non-regular jobs. The proportion of non-regular workers among wage earners aged 15 to 29 has increased from 31.8 percent in 2003 to 41.4 percent in 2022.
청년 고용의 질 또한 비정규직이 증가하면서 악화되고 있다. 15세에서 29세 사이의 임금 근로자 중 비정규직 비율은 2003년 31.8%에서 2022년 41.4%로 증가했다.

The percentage of employed people intending to get married (49.4%) exceeded that of the non-employed (38.4%). However, for non-regular workers, their intention to marry (36.6%) was even lower than that of non-employed individuals.
취업자의 결혼 의향 비율(49.4%)은 비취업자(38.4%)를 상회했다. 다만 비정규직의 경우 결혼 의향(36.6%)이 비취업자보다 더욱 낮았다.

Based on data of 35 OECD countries from 2000 to 2021, the report highlighted that Korea's birthrate can improve considerably if the country's various economic and social factors were to improve to the average level of OECD countries.
보고서는 2000년부터 2021년까지 OECD 35개국의 데이터를 기반으로 한국의 다양한 경제 및 사회적 요인이 OECD 국가의 평균 수준으로 향상된다면 한국의 출산율이 상당히 향상될 수 있다고 강조했다.

For instance, if Korea's urban population concentration (431.9%) drops to the OECD average (95.3%), the total fertility rate would increase by 0.414 births from the current level. Likewise, if Korea's employment rate for those aged 15 to 39 increases to the OECD average, it is anticipated that the birthrate can further increase by 0.119 births.
예를 들어 우리나라의 도시인구 집중도(431.9%)가 OECD 평균(95.3%)으로 낮아지면 합계출산율은 현재보다 0.414명 증가할 것이다. 마찬가지로 우리나라의 15~39세 고용률이 OECD 평균으로 높아지면 출산율은 0.119명 증가할 것으로 예상된다.

Furthermore, the total fertility rate could be raised by a maximum of 0.845 births, when the country's key indicators, including the rate of the actual utilization of parent leaves, government expenditure on family support, and the real housing price index, are to be improved to the average levels of OECD countries.
또한 부모휴가 실제 이용률, 가족 부양에 대한 정부지출, 실질 주택가격 지수 등 국가의 주요 지표를 OECD 국가 평균 수준으로 개선할 경우 합계출산율을 최대 0.845명까지 높일 수 있다.

#FertilityRate출산율 #LowBirthrate저출산 #PopulationDecline인구감소 #Labor Market노동시장 #StabilizingHousingPrices주택가격안정 #CompetitionAlleviation 경쟁완화 #StructuralPolicies구조적정책 #EmploymentRate고용률 #Non-Regular Workers비정규직 #ParentalLeave부모휴가