Will Korea avoid hard landing in housing market? 한국의 주택시장은 경착륙을 피할까?

[김우정]

분석가들은 내년에 집값이 하향안정될 것으로 예상합니다.
저의 의견은 조금 다릅니다.
집값에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 것은 이자율, 금융정책, 물량수급입니다.
내년 하반기부터 기준금리가 인하되고 부동산대출이 완화되면 완만한 상승이 예상됩니다.
 
Will Korea avoid hard landing in housing market?
한국의 주택시장은 경착륙을 피할까?

By Yi Whan-woo 이환우 기자
Posted : 2023-12-08 17:06 Updated : 2023-12-09 09:55
Korea Times

Apartment buildings are visible from Mount Nam in Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap 목요일, 남산에서 아파트 건물이 보인다. 연합

Experts expect house prices to see gradual decline in 2024
전문가들 2024년 집값이 점진적으로 하락할 것으로 예상

Korea's housing bubble is anticipated to ease gradually in 2024 after years of surging house prices, according to analysts, Friday.
금요일 분석가들에 따르면 한국의 주택거품은 수년간의 집값 급등 후 2024년에 점차 완화될 것으로 예상된다.
 
Speculation was backed by house price-linked stats, a diminished wealth gap between the rich and the poor, a downturn in Seoul's house prices for the first time in six months and high interest rates.
투기는 집값 관련 통계, 빈부격차 감소, 6개월만의 서울 집값 하락, 그리고 높은 금리에 의해 뒷받침되었다.

“I would not say house prices will plummet, but one thing I can say for sure is that the housing bubble will shrink by a significant level by the beginning of the second half in 2024,” said Kwon Dae-jung, a real estate professor at Sogang University.
권대중 서강대 부동산학과 교수는 "집값이 폭락한다고 말하지는 않겠지만, 한 가지 확실하게 말할 수 있는 것은 2024년 하반기 초까지 주택 거품이 상당 수준 줄어들 것이라는 점,"이라고 말했다.

He noted the diminished wealth gap, as jointly addressed by Statistics Korea, the Bank of Korea (BOK) and the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) in their data, Thursday, indicates that house prices have potentially peaked.
그는 통계청과 한국은행, 금융감독원이 목요일 공동으로 발표한 자료에 따르면 주택 가격이 최고점을 찍을 가능성이 있다고 지적했습니다.

The data showed the average value of assets of the bottom 20 percent of earners in the income bracket increased 12.7 percent year-on-year in 2023, while that of the top 20 percent decreased 4.2 percent over the same period.
자료에 따르면 소득 하위 20% 소득자의 자산 가치는 2023년 전년 대비 12.7% 증가한 반면, 상위 20% 소득자의 자산 가치는 같은 기간 4.2% 감소했다.

The drop in wealth of the rich, according to Kwon, comes as the prices of expensive homes have been falling.
권교수에 따르면 부자들의 재산 감소는 고가의 주택 가격이 하락하고 있기 때문에 발생한 것이라고 한다.

“The value of a home takes up a great portion of individual wealth in Korea, and in that regard, the rich-poor wealth gap is a clue to forecast the 2024 housing market,” Kwon said.
권 교수는 "주택의 가치는 우리나라 개인의 재산에서 큰 비중을 차지하는데 그런 점에서 빈부격차는 2024년 주택시장을 전망할 수 있는 단서,"라고 말했다.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a private wealth manager of a commercial bank said the sign of a shrinking housing bubble is visible in the latest apartment price trend in Seoul.
익명을 요구한 한 시중은행의 사모펀드 매니저는 최근 서울 아파트 가격 동향에서 주택 거품이 줄어들고 있다는 징후가 포착됐다고 말했다.

In a data released Thursday, the Real Estate Board said prices of apartments, the most popular form of housing in the country, inched down 0.01 percent from the previous week in the first week of December.
부동산원은 목요일 발표한 자료에서 12월 첫째 주에 우리나라에서 가장 인기있는 주택 형태인 아파트 가격이 전주보다 0.01% 하락했다고 밝혔다.

It marked the first fall since the third week of May.
5월 셋째 주 이후 처음으로 하락했다.

“The housing market is on track to normalization after devastating housing policy failure under the previous government that resulted in skyrocketing house prices,” the manager said.
"집값 폭등을 초래한 지난 정부의 주택정책 실패를 초토화한 후 주택 시장이 정상화 궤도에 올랐다." 라고 관리자는 말했다.

Lee Sang-ho, head of the economic policy team at the Korea Economic Research Institute (KERI), said high interest rates will also cause the housing bubble to shrink in 2024.
이상호 한국경제연구원 경제정책팀장은 2024년에도 높은 금리가 주택 거품을 위축시킬 것이라고 말했다.

“The high key interest rate is likely to remain unchanged in the first six months of 2024, as the drastic rate cut, compared to a drastic rate hike, can have a more negative effect on people’s livelihoods and the economy,” Lee said.
이 팀장은 "급격한 금리인상에 비해 급격한 금리인하가 민생과 경제에 더 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있기 때문에 2024년 첫 6개월 동안 기준금리는 변동이 없을 가능성이 높다,"고 말했다.

He was referring to the Bank of Korea (BOK) keeping the policy rate steady at 3.5 percent since January. The rate stands at a more than 14-year high after the BOK carried out aggressive monetary tightening in August 2021 to bring back the rate to the pre-pandemic level.
그는 한국은행이 지난 1월부터 정책금리를 3.5%로 안정적으로 유지하고 있다고 언급했다. 이 금리는 한국은행이 2021년 8월 팬데믹 이전 수준으로 되돌리기 위해 공격적인 통화긴축을 단행한 이후 14년 만에 최고치를 기록하고 있다.

“Would-be homeowners are likely to wait and see for the rate to fall, and such an approach will contribute to the gradual easing of the housing bubble,” Lee said.
이 팀장은 "주택구매 대기자들은 금리가 떨어질 때까지 관망할 가능성이 높고, 이 같은 접근법은 주택 거품의 점진적 완화에 기여할 것"이라고 말했다.

#housingmarket주택시장 #hardlanding경착륙 #analysts분석가들 #wealthgap빈부격차 #housingbubble주택거품 #realestateprofessor부동산학과교수 #incomebracket소득계층 #apartmentprices아파트가격 #interestrates금리  #monetarytightening통화긴축