변화한 안보환경에 따라 바뀌는 러시아 해군의 조선 프로그램

[위종민]

현재 러시아 해군의 조선 프로그램은 2014년에 수립됐는데 8년 사이 각종 제재 및 나토의 확장, 서방과의 관계 악화, 우-러 전쟁 등 변화된 안보환경으로 러시아 해군의 조선 프로그램이 변경될 수 있다고 합니다. 

우선 각종 제재 및 대서방 관계 악화로 디젤엔진 등의 장비 공급이 어려워져 수입대체 필요성이 늘어났다고 합니다. 

또 우-러 전쟁에서 흑해함대 소속 잠수함이 순항미사일을 발사하는 데 가장 효과적인 것으로 드러났다고 합니다. 흑해에서 활동중인 잠수함들을 나토가 모두 추적하는 게 불가능해 미사일이 물 밖으로 나오고 나서야 잠수함을 탐지할 수 있으며, 수상함은 정찰기와 위성에 쉽게 추적되고 넵튠이나 하푼, 브림스톤같은 대함미사일에 취약해 잠수함이 적 해안표적을 정찰 및 감시할 필요가 있다고 하네요. 

또한 핀란드-스웨덴의 나토 가입으로 발틱해에서 나토가 상당한 숫적 우위를 누리게 돼 발틱 함대에도 신형 잠수함을 갖출 필요가 생겼습니다. 이 기사에선 킬로급 개량형 Pr. 636.6보다는 Pr. 677 라다급 잠수함을 더 생산해야 한다고 제안하네요. 라다급이 훨씬 조용하고, 소나도 훨씬 정교하며 소형이라 발틱해에서 작전하는 데 더 적합하다고. 

돌고 돌아 잠수함에 다시 의존하는 게 1960년대 초반 구소련 해군 같습니다.. 

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/08/russian-shipbuilding-program-to-be-modified-under-new-naval-doctrine/

Russian shipbuilding program to be modified under new naval doctrine - Naval News

Naval News Staff

8-9 minutes

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TASS News Agency

New Russian shipbuilding program

The current edition of the Russian shipbuilding program was approved in the spring of 2014, the military expert recalled. According to him, over the past eight years, there have been dramatic changes in the world: a sharp cooling in the relations between Russia and the West, a big number of sanctions imposed on Russia, NATO’s further expansion, the establishment of the AUKUS bloc in Southeast Asia, and, finally, the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine in February this year. The Russian shipbuilding program is classified, therefore, as Vladimir Karnozov writes in the Independent Military Review, it is possible to talk only about general modifications the program will be subject to.

As Karnozov says, the first visible consequence of the cooling in the relations between Russia and the West for the Navy was the refusal of European companies to supply diesel engines and shipborne equipment under previously concluded contracts.

Vladimir Karnozov, Russian military expert

Black Sea Fleet’s most effective element

Severodvinsk project 885 Yasen-class submarine launching a Kalibr cruise missile

“Import substitution is not the only reason for adjusting the long-term plans of the domestic shipbuilding industry,” Karnozov writes. He says with reference to the foreign press that in the special military operation, the Black Sea Fleet’s submarine forces are the most effective element of the Russian Navy, being involved in launching Kalibr cruise missiles against military facilities of the Ukrainian army.

Vladimir Karnozov, Russian military expert

“Surface ships are increasingly turning into targets for a high-tech enemy,” since their movements can be easily tracked by reconnaissance aircraft and satellites of NATO countries, Karnozov writes. Ships are highly vulnerable to weapons in service with the Ukrainian Armed Forces, such as the Neptune, Harpoon and Brimstone antiship missiles. The expert suggests using the high stealth capabilities of submarines for reconnaissance and monitoring of enemy coastal targets at a short distance from the coast.

New subs for Baltic Fleet

Russia’s 2nd Lada-class submarine ‘Kronstadt’ during sea trials (Admiralty Wharves Shipyard picture.)

As Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the Navy Day parade in St. Petersburg, Russia’s national interests, both economic and strategic ones, extend to the Arctic, the Black Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea, as well as the Baltic and Kuril Straits. According to the president, the security of these water areas will be ensured by the Navy.

Vladimir Karnozov, Russian military expert

At the same time, the future entry of Sweden and Finland to NATO has already prompted some Western politicians to say that the Baltic Sea will be turned into a NATO lake.

“Taking into account the significant numerical superiority of the NATO naval forces, it seems most logical to equip the Baltic Fleet with advanced missile-carrying submarines,” Karnozov says.

According to the expert, work is currently in progress to select submarines to arm the fleet. A proposal has been made to continue the construction of Project 636.6 submarines by ordering another its series from the Admiralty Wharves Shipyard. “However, these submarines have obvious shortcomings,” Karnozov notes. In his opinion, they are associated with the obsolescence of the basic project 877 developed back in the 1970s.

“Numerous upgrades introduced to the improved project 636 are unable to bring it to the technological level of the latest foreign submarines in terms of automation and noise level,” the military expert believes. He suggests ceasing the production of Project 636.3 submarines in favor of fourth-generation Project 677 Lada-class subs.

“With the same weapon suite (18 missiles and torpedoes), the Lada-class sub is much quieter, and its Lira sonar system is much more sophisticated than the obsolete Rubicon,” Karnozov writes. The submarine’s low noise level and new sonar system allow the crew to operate covertly in areas of deployment of enemy antisubmarine warfare ships and aircraft. The Lada-class sub is more compact and therefore better suited for operations in the Baltic Sea with its shallow waters and high traffic,” the expert says.

Development of Russia’s submarine fleet

Russian Project 955A Borei-A SSBN Knyaz Vladimir (Prince Vladimir) Sevmash shipyard picture.

The military expert says that Russia has “appropriate design and production capacities” to build an efficient submarine fleet. “The flagship of Russian shipbuilding industry, the Sevmash Shipyard in Severodvinsk, is working at full capacity,” he points out.

Russia continues to replace Soviet-made Project 877 diesel-electric submarines with more modern ones, namely the Project 636.3 and Project 677 submarines. Submarines of these projects are being built by the St. Petersburg-based Admiralty Wharves Shipyard. It was reported in June that the shipyard would hand over the Project 677 Lada-class submarines B-586 Kronstadt and B-587 Velikiye Luki this year. There are also plans to deliver the Project 636.3 submarine B-588 Ufa to the Navy.

Project 677 and Project 636.3 submarines

The Project 677 Lada-class diesel-electric submarine is a derivative of the Soviet-made Project 877 Paltus-class sub. The project was developed by the Rubin Central Design Bureau for Marine Engineering in the 1990s. Submarines of the type are designed to destroy enemy surface ships and vessels, conduct patrolling and reconnaissance, guard sea lanes, as well as lay minefields. Compared to its predecessors, the Lada-class sub features a low noise level, a high degree of automation, a surface displacement reduced by almost 1.3 times, and an increased underwater speed.

The Project 636.3 submarine is designed to replace Paltus-class subs. The upgraded Project 636.3 submarine was developed by the Rubin Design Bureau too. Submarines of this series are designed to destroy surface ships and vessels, enemy submarines, conduct patrolling and reconnaissance, and protect sea lanes in the close sea zone. The Project 636.3 submarine is a carrier of Kalibr-PL cruise missiles.

During the counterterrorism operation in Syria, on December 8, 2015, the Project 636.3 submarine B-237 Rostov-on-Don launched Kalibr missiles at terrorist targets in the Syrian province of Raqqa. In 2017, similar attacks against terrorists in Syria were delivered by the Project 636.3 subs Krasnodar and Veliky Novgorod. These missile launches were the first strikes against a real enemy in the history of the Russian submarine fleet.

[사처포(곽명기)]

'돌고 돌아...'
그렇다면 우리 209 수출길도 열릴 수...(튀어랏 ~ ~)

[위종민]

인도네시아에도 제안이 들어갔고, 호주에도 오퍼를 한 모양이던데 수출길이 좀 열렸으면 좋겠습니다 ㅎㅎ

[백선호]

이 잠수함들이 미사일 다 쏘고 나면 어딘가에 가서 재장전을 해야만 할 것인데, 우크라이나군의 역량이 그곳을 노릴 능력은 아직 안되는 모양입니다.

[위종민]

크림 반도의 공군기지를 탄도탄이나 로켓탄으로 두들긴 것 같던데, 오데사에서 세바스토폴은 310km, 헤르손은 250km네요. ATACMS 지원해주면 세바스토폴은 타격범위 안에 들어오긴 하네요.