Reform, foreign talent crucial to Korean economy 개혁, 외국인 인재 한국경제 활성화에 중요

[김우정]

 
맥킨지는 한국이 2040년 프랑스와 아탈리아를 제치고 세계7위 경제국이 될 것으로 전망합니다.
이 글로벌 컨설팅 기업은 1인당 GDP 7만달러가 되기위해 몇가지 제안을 하고 있습니다.
기존의 반도체, 자동차, 전자제품 에서 양자컴퓨팅, 바이오, 녹색기술, 소형원자료시장을 추천합니다.
인구감소해결책으로 해외고급인력수용의 중요성도 강조합니다.
마지막으로, 이스라엘과 함께 세계 Top 2 연구개발투자국으로서 지속적인 R&D투자로 인한 혁신을 강조합니다.
 
Reform, foreign talent crucial to revitalizing Korean economy: McKinsey
맥킨지: 개혁, 외국인 인재 한국 경제 활성화에 중요 

By Anna J. Park 박안나 기자
Posted : 2023-12-11 08:18 Updated : 2023-12-11 08:18
Korea Times

McKinsey & Company senior partner Richard Lee speaks during a recent interview with The Korea Times at the firm's office in Seoul. Courtesy of McKinsey Korea 맥킨지 앤 컴퍼니의 수석 파트너인 리차드 리가 최근 서울사무소에서 코리아 타임즈와의 인터뷰에서 말하고 있다. 맥켄지 코리아 제공

Global consulting firm forecasts Korea to join world's top 7 economies by 2040
글로벌 컨설팅 기업, 2040년까지 세계 7위권 경제권 진입 전망

Korea will overtake France and Italy and ascend to the world’s top seven economies by 2040 with its per capita GDP exceeding $70,000 if the Asian country succeeds in overhauling its industrial structure and embraces more foreign talent, according to McKinsey & Company.
맥킨지앤컴퍼니에 따르면, 산업 구조를 바꾸는 데 성공하고 더 많은 외국 인재들을 받아들인다면, 한국은 2040년까지 1인당 GDP가 7만 달러를 넘어 프랑스와 이탈리아를 제치고 세계 7위의 경제 대국으로 올라설 것이라고 한다.

In a recent interview with The Korea Times at its Seoul office, McKinsey senior partner Richard Lee said that although Korea has been mired in a low growth trap of around 2 percent a year on average, it has tremendous potential to rekindle the dynamics of expansion through structural reforms.
최근 서울 사무실에서 가진 코리아 타임즈와의 인터뷰에서, 맥킨지의 수석 파트너인 리차드 리는 한국이 연 평균 2% 정도의 저성장 함정에 빠져 있지만, 구조 개혁을 통해 성장의 역동성을 다시 일으킬 수 있는 엄청난 잠재력을 가지고 있다고 말했다.

“Korea still can capture new growth momentum in burgeoning business sectors like artificial intelligence, bio, non-memory chips and climate technology, where the country can be highly relevant,” he said.
그는 "한국은 여전히 인공지능, 바이오, 비메모리 칩, 기후 기술과 같은 급성장하는 사업 분야에서 새로운 성장 모멘텀을 포착할 수 있으며, 이 분야에서 한국은 관련성이 높을 수 있다,"고 말했다.

“Venturing into these ‘higher value-added industries’ is what Korea should take on at this juncture to step up into the world's top seven economies in the future,” he added.
"이러한 '고부가가치 산업'에 대한 모험은 미래에 세계 7대 경제권으로 도약하기 위해 한국이 이 시기에 해야 할 일이다."라고 그는 덧붙였다.

Lee’s rosy outlook is based on the latest strategic report titled “Korea’s Next S-Curve" by the world’s leading consulting firm.
이 파트너의 장밋빛 전망은 세계 최고의 컨설팅 회사가 최근 발표한 "한국의 다음 S-Curve"라는 제목의 전략 보고서에 근거하고 있다.

Lee, who co-authored the report, said it underscores the imperative for Korea's industrial landscape to undergo a transformation, coupled with improvements in capital market regulations and frameworks to achieve the optimistic forecast.
이 보고서를 공동 집필한 이 파트너는 낙관적인 전망을 달성하기 위해 자본시장의 규제와 틀의 개선과 함께 한국의 산업환경이 전환되어야 할 필요성을 강조한다고 말했다.

The Seoul-based senior partner elaborated that the first S-curve — cumulative growth of the Korean economy shown progressively over time — was until the 1980s, primarily driven by heavy industries like steel, shipbuilding and petrochemicals.
서울에 본사를 둔 이 수석 파트너는 한국경제의 점진적인 누적성장이 1980년대까지 주로 철강, 조선 및 석유 화학과 같은 중공업에 의해 주도되었다고 설명했다.

The second S-curve during the 1990s to the early 2000s was around advanced manufacturing, such as semiconductors, automobiles and electronic materials. The third S-curve, which is what Korea needs to attain further growth, can be achieved based on the higher value-added sectors.
1990년대부터 2000년대 초반까지 두번째 S곡선은 반도체, 자동차, 전자재료 등 선진 제조업 중심이었다. 세번째 S곡선은 한국이 더 높은 부가가치를 바탕으로 이루어질 수 있는 성장이다.

But for now, the country's economy, in terms of key export items and main industrial structures, is still stuck in the second phase of the S-curve.
그러나 현재로서는 주요 수출 품목과 주요 산업구조 측면에서 우리나라 경제는 여전히 S 곡선의 2단계에 머물러 있다.

"Unfortunately, we don't see a big change in the shift of the Korean economy in terms of what's driving the export growth," Lee said during the interview. "If you look at the top 10 export items of Korea, it hasn't changed very much since 2005. While the order of the top 10 might have changed, there's only one new item that has joined the list. The country needs to go through a pretty significant, radical change in the way it thinks about growth," Lee stressed.
"불행하게도, 우리는 수출 증가를 이끄는 것이 무엇인지에 관해 한국 경제의 변화에 큰 변화가 없다고 본다."라고 이 파트너는 인터뷰에서 말했다. "한국의 10대 수출 품목을 보면, 2005년 이후 크게 변하지 않았다. 10대 수출 품목의 순서가 바뀌었을 수도 있지만, 그 목록에 새로 들어간 품목은 단 한 가지이다. 한국은 성장에 대한 생각에 있어서 꽤 중대하고 급진적인 변화를 겪을 필요가 있다."라고 이 파트너는 강조했다.

Restructuring ensures 3rd S-curve
구조조정으로 3차 S곡선 보장

Lee, who leads high-tech, media and private equity practices in Seoul, said Korea needs to grab new growth opportunities the world is offering by undertaking the major restructuring of some of the industries that once helped the country achieve high growth in the past, but not anymore.
서울의 하이테크, 미디어, 사모펀드 업무를 이끌고 있는 이씨는 한국이 과거에 고도성장을 이루는데 도움을 주었지만 이제는 그렇지 않은 일부 산업의 대대적인 구조조정을 실시함으로써 세계가 제공하고 있는 새로운 성장 기회를 잡아야 한다고 말했다.

"The most representative one is the petrochemical industry. The petrochemical industry has always been the source of the top two or top three export items for Korea. Korea imports crude oil and sells petrochemicals, and a lot of the petrochemicals are sold to China. But China is becoming increasingly self-sufficient in the area," the senior partner said. "China is already expected to have more than 10 or 20 percent overcapacity for its chemicals in the next 10 years. So this industry is facing a major oversupply in Korea," he warned.
"가장 대표적인 것은 석유 화학 산업이다. 석유화학산업은 항상 한국의 2대 혹은 3대 수출 품목의 원천이었다. 한국은 원유를 수입하여 석유 화학제품을 판매하고, 많은 석유화학제품들이 중국에 판매되고 있다. 하지만 중국은 그 지역에서 점점 더 자급자족하고 있다," 라고 그 수석 파트너가 말했다. "중국은 이미 향후 10년 안에 10 퍼센트 또는 20 퍼센트 이상의 화학제품을 과잉생산을 할 것으로 예상되고 있다. 그래서 이 산업은 한국에서 심각한 공급과잉에 직면하고 있다," 라고 그가 경고했다.


While undergoing such necessary restructuring in some of the industries, Korea also needs to take proactive measures to shift towards the higher value-added industries as mentioned.
일부 산업에서 필요한 구조조정이 진행되고 있는 가운데, 한국도 앞서 언급한 바와 같이 고부가가치 산업으로 전환할 수 있도록 적극적인 조치가 필요하다.

"For example, one area we're particularly excited about is quantum computing. We think quantum computing in the next 10 to 20 years can be a $1.4 trillion industry globally, and we think Korea can play a major role. Quantum computing fundamentally changes how you do very high-intensity computing," Lee said.
"예를 들어, 우리가 특히 기대하는 분야는 양자 컴퓨팅이다. 우리는 향후 10년에서 20년 사이에 양자 컴퓨팅이 전 세계적으로 1조 4천억 달러 규모의 산업이 될 수 있다고 생각하며, 우리는 한국이 주요한 역할을 할 수 있다고 생각한다. 양자 컴퓨팅은 근본적으로 여러분이 매우 높은 강도의 컴퓨팅을 하는 방법을 바꾼다,"라고 이 파트너는 말했다.

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Other sectors include the bio industry's ever-rowing markets for contract development and manufacturing organizations (CDMOs) as well as cell and gene therapy (CGT). Highly innovative green technologies also offer ample new growth opportunities, as seen in cases of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) and wind power, which are each expected to grow into a $100 billion market. The small modular reactor (SMR) market is also projected to reach $480 billion in the future.
다른 분야로는 세포 및 유전자 치료제 뿐만 아니라 바이오 산업의 지속적으로 성장하는 계약개발 및 제조조직(CDMO) 시장이 있다. 각각 1,000억 달러 규모의 시장으로 성장할 것으로 예상되는 탄소포집 및 이용 및 저장(CCUS)과 풍력의 사례에서 볼 수 있듯이 고도로 혁신적인 녹색 기술 또한 새로운 성장 기회를 제공합니다. 소형 모듈식 원자로(SMR) 시장도 미래에 4,800억 달러에 이를 것으로 예상된다.

"So these are all markets where Korean companies can play a big role. We expect Korean companies that achieve innovation in these fields to be able to post annual earnings of $10 billion to $100 billion," Lee said.
"그래서 이 시장들은 모두 한국 기업들이 큰 역할을 할 수 있는 시장들입니다. 우리는 이 분야 들에서 혁신을 이루는 한국 기업들이 연간 100억 달러에서 1,000억 달러의 수익을 올릴 수 있을 것으로 기대한다,"라고 이씨는 말했다.

To achieve the recommended national growth strategies, Lee stresses the importance of actively accepting foreign workers, especially highly-skilled ones, to address the country's declining population and to bring back vitality.
권장되는 국가 성장전략을 달성하기 위해, 이 파트너는 인구 감소를 해결하고 활력을 되찾기 위해 외국인 노동자, 특히 고숙련 노동자를 적극적으로 수용하는 것이 중요하다고 강조했다.

"Now's the time to inject a sense of urgency in the way we think about foreign talent," Lee said, explaining that Korea's issuance quota of professional visas per year has been flat over the past 10 years at around 50,000.
이씨는 "지금은 외국인재에 대한 우리의 사고방식에 대한 절박함을 주입해야 할 때"라며 한국의 연간 전문비자 발급 쿼터가 지난 10년간 5만명 안팎으로 제자리걸음을 했다고 설명했다.

While Korea has stayed stagnant in that area, Lee said Japan has increased the number by more than four times — from some 120,000 to 480,000 — during the same period.
한국은 이 부문에서 정체상태에 있는 반면, 이 대통령은 일본은 같은 기간 약 12만 명에서 48만 명으로 4배 이상 증가했다고 말했다.

"Japan is already moving towards the direction where they're realizing that the natural birth rate is not going to cover the talent needed for industry," he said.
"일본은 이미 자연 출산율이 산업에 필요한 인재를 충당하지 못할 것이라는 것을 깨닫고 있는 방향으로 나아가고 있다,"라고 그는 말했다.

Besides taking in more overseas talents, Lee, who holds a Harvard MBA degree, also pointed to the need to attract more capital freely flowing into the Korean market.
하버드 경영학석사 학위를 가진 이 파트너는 더 많은 해외인재를 영입하는 것 외에도 한국 시장에 자유롭게 유입되는 더 많은 자본을 유치해야 할 필요성을 지적했다.

"One of the big challenges is to make sure our capital markets are fully reflective of the underlying economy of the country; Korea's price-to-book ratio is one of the lowest in the world," he said.
"큰 과제 중 하나는 우리 자본시장이 한국의 경제를 완전히 반영하도록 하는 것이다. 한국의 장부대비 가격 비율은 세계에서 가장 낮은 수준이다,"라고 그는 말했다.

"One of the things that we find very surprising is many large Korean conglomerates don't necessarily want their stock price to go up, which is very unusual. But that is because of the very large inheritance tax in Korea. So I think fixing both the labor and the capital markets to encourage more investments and more sort of healthy capital in the country are two of the things that we need," he said, adding that some capital market regulations that tend to discourage active venture investments by conglomerates should also be amended.
"우리가 발견한 매우 놀라운 것들 중 하나는 많은 한국의 대기업들이 반드시 그들의 주가가 올라가는 것을 원하지 않는다는 것인데, 이것은 매우 이례적이다. 그러나 그것은 한국의 매우 큰 상속세 때문이다. 그래서 나는 한국에 더 많은 투자와 더 많은 종류의 건강한 자본을 장려하기 위해 노동시장과 자본시장을 모두 고치는 것이 우리에게 필요한 것들 중 두 가지라고 생각한다,"라고 그는 대기업의 적극적인 벤처투자를 억제하는 경향이 있는 일부 자본시장 규제 또한 개정되어야 한다고 덧붙였다.

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Innovation as Korea's top strength
한국의 최고 강점으로서의 혁신

Lastly, the McKinsey senior partner highlighted that Korea's unique strength lies in its constant drive for innovation and relatively larger investments in research and development (R&D). As a percentage of spending of the national economy, Korea ranks among the top two globally, right after Israel, with around 4.95 percent of GDP injected into the R&D sector, Lee said.
마지막으로, 맥킨지 수석 파트너는 한국의 독특한 강점은 끊임없는 혁신 추진력과 상대적으로 더 많은 연구개발 투자에 있다고 강조했다. 국가 경제의 지출 비율로, 한국은 이스라엘 바로 다음으로 세계에서 최상위 2 나라 중 하나이며, GDP의 약 4.95%가 연구개발 부문에 투자되었다고 이씨는 말했다.

"We think that's a real plus for Korea. Korea has always been a good testbed market for many items, and we think this is a great place where Korea can actually be a center of innovation and development," he said, adding that he hopes Korea captures the unprecedented level of wealth creation that's happening currently.
"우리는 그것이 한국에 정말 좋은 이점이라고 생각한다. 한국은 항상 많은 품목의 좋은 테스트베드 시장이었고, 우리는 이곳이 한국이 실제로 혁신과 개발의 중심이 될 수 있는 훌륭한 장소라고 생각한다,"라고 그는 한국이 현재 일어나고 있는 전례 없는 수준의 부의 창출을 포착하기를 바란다고 덧붙였다.

After studying economics and engineering at MIT, Lee spent the last 26 years at McKinsey, mainly focusing on tech, media, and telecom from an industry perspective, as well as mergers and acquisitions from a functional perspective. He is also actively working with private equity and venture capital funds.
MIT에서 경제학과 공학을 공부한 후, 이 파트너는 맥킨지에서 지난 26년을 보냈고, 주로 산업적 관점에서 기술, 미디어, 통신에 초점을 맞췄고, 기능적 관점에서 인수합병에 초점을 맞췄다. 그는 또한 사모펀드와 벤처캐피탈 펀드분야에서 활발하게 일하고 있다.

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