4주차｜기술·ICT·정보보안·AI_이민규

[이민규]

October 15, 2025

Innovation at the Speed of AI

Governor Christopher J. Waller

At DC Fintech Week, Arlington, Virginia

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20251015a.htm

1. economists and technologists: 경제학자, 기술자(기술 전문가)

2. doomers: (맥락상) 비관론자

3. techno-optimists: 기술 낙관론자

4. Auto registrations: 자동차 등록 수

5. Gutenberg: 구텐베르크 (활판 인쇄기를 발명)

6. the Catholic Church's power over the written word: 문헌/책/기록정보에 대한 가톨릭교회의 힘

7. mainframes: 메인프레임

Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today about artificial intelligence (AI). AI is a powerful and rapidly advancing technology that has captured everyone's attention. If you've watched enough sci-fi, you know that major technological change is usually either dystopian or utopian—the robots either take over the world or improve it. These polarized views are also common among economists and technologists. On one side, there are the doomers—those convinced that new technologies will destroy jobs, widen inequality, and concentrate power. On the other, there are the techno-optimists—those convinced we're on the brink of an unprecedented leap in productivity, growth, and creativity if we let the technology proliferate. As usual, the truth about AI is probably somewhere in between. The job of an economic policymaker is to separate hype and hyperbole from hard data and sound analysis and understand what AI really means for growth, productivity, and the broader economy.

I will focus on three aspects of major technological change that "repeat" through history. First, technological change is a constant in our lives, and it is almost always disruptive. It upends the way we work and socialize. Second, it alters existing power relationships in unsettling ways. Finally, technological change reliably raises productivity and our standard of living while improving the quality of our lives. My intent is to describe how AI is likely to affect our lives along these lines and how it differs from past technological changes.

We have always had technological changes that dramatically transform the economy and our daily lives. In the 1880s, electricity was a curiosity reserved for a few wealthy urban people and some limited industrial uses. By 1920, half of homes had electricity, by 1940 nearly half had a refrigerator, and by 1945, 85 percent of homes were electrified. Automobile use also rose swiftly. Auto registrations rose from 140,000 in 1906 to 23 million in 1929, at a time when the total number of households was fewer than 30 million. These advances changed daily life in profound ways. Another aspect of technological change is the speed at which new technologies are being adopted. In the last 50 years, we've experienced adoption of new technologies twice as fast: Personal computers were widespread within 20 years—the internet in 12 years—and it only took 6 years for smartphones to be universal. And now AI is moving even more rapidly. I tend to believe that the transition for workers affected by AI will be accelerated also, but no one really knows. Such predictions are certainly beyond my powers as an economic policymaker, so I will limit myself to the here and now. The point of this discussion is that technological change is a constant in our lives—it is always happening and will continue to happen—and AI seems to be following the pattern of ever-faster adoption and change.

Although it is a constant in our lives, technology also disrupts our lives every time a new innovation appears. The way that we work and produce changes. Jobs disappear, and new ones appear. Our social lives are disrupted as well, often in good ways—but sometimes not so good. We used to write letters and mail them to communicate with loved ones. This took time and was expensive. Now we text or use FaceTime or Zoom to communicate with friends and family members anytime. This makes it easier to maintain relationships across geography and time. But it can also undermine those social connections. When I walk into a party and see half of the people there staring at their screens, I can see that technology can lead to less social interaction, not more. Technological disruption, like anything else, has benefits and costs. But, as I will argue later, I believe that we need to let this disruption occur to recognize the benefits alongside the costs, to enable us to lead better lives.

My second point was that technological innovation can alter power relationships in profound ways. When Gutenberg invented the printing press, he took away the Catholic Church's power over the written word and democratized it. When personal computers appeared, power shifted from those who managed mainframes to individual users. When the internet arrived, the control of news, information, and opinion pieces shifted from major news outlets to anyone with a webpage. AI will do the same.

[박재민]

빨간색 글로서리 아이템이랑 노란색 글로서리 아이템의 차이는 뭔지 여쭈어봐도 괜찮을까요?

[이민규]

노란색: 워드에서 노란색으로 칠하고 복사한 것 빨간색?: 다음 사이트에서 직접 색깔표시한 것입니다! :)