e정보기술 "why tech will bloom again" [허접요약...] ^^*

[강재원[old01]]

에고.. 혼자 속으로 이해하는거는 쉬운데 실제로 번역하는게 이렇게 힘들다니...
어떻게 한번 해보긴 했는데 좀 허접하다.. (따라서 쓸데없는 테클은 사절)
그리고 별로 중요하지 않은거는 중간에 귀찮아서 넘어간것도 조금 있는구...
뒷부분은 쉬운문장이라서 그냥 의미와 핵심만 간단히 요약했고, ("뭐, 그것만 알아도 이해는 될것이야~"라고 생각하는디... ㅡㅡ;)

암튼, 이미 다 한 사람들도 있겠지만, 뭐 서로 이해수준을 맞춰보는것도 도움이 되니까~

Why Tech Will Bloom Again


Sure, parts of the industry have withered. But that's the way tech works, and new fruit is on the way
물론, 몇몇의 산업부분들이 쇠퇴해가고 있다. 그러나 이런것들이 바로 기술이 발전하는 과정이다. 그리고 새로운 열매(IT업계의 새로운 바람을 말함)가 떠오르고 있다.

To hear some folks tell it, the information-technology revolution is kaput. The industry that has driven the economy and captured our imaginations for years has peaked for good, insists a chorus of skeptics. It's true that after four decades of 10% annual growth, more than twice the growth rate of the gross domestic product, tech spending has dropped for two straight years. And corporate IT chiefs say they won't increase spending more than 3% this year. Even some of tech's titans are starting to join the dirge. "This is the new baseline," declares Oracle (ORCL ) Corp. Chief Executive Lawrence J. Ellison. "The industry in total will actually shrink." The doubts go even deeper than whether the industry will grow again.
사람들의 말을 들어보면 IT혁명이 이제 쇠퇴기에 접어들었다고 한다. 몇 년동안 경제를 이끌고 우리의 상상력을 사로잡았던 IT산업은 이제 회의적이다. 전체국산품 성장비율의 두배보다 더많은 이후40년동안의 년10%성장률을보인 IT투자는 2년연속 떨어졌다. 그리고 IT계의 수뇌들은 올해 지출을 3%이상 증가시키지 않을것이라고 말한다.심지어 몇몇의 IT계의 실력자들은 퇴출되기 시작했다. “이것은 새로운 기준선입니다”,“실제적으로 전체산업이 침체될겁니다”라고 오라클의 수뇌가 말했다. 그생각은 산업이 다시 성장할것인가하는 것보다 더 깊어져갔다.

Burned by broken promises and bewildered by a dizzying array of hardware and software that's still underused, corporate buyers are more skeptical than ever. And now, some experts say that IT can no longer provide corporations any more competitive advantage -- or growth -- than such old-standby technologies as electricity. "A lot of the core things that businesses do have already been automated," says Nicholas G. Carr, who ignited a firestorm with an article in the May Harvard Business Review entitled "IT Doesn't Matter."
좌절된 기대감과 하드웨어와 소프트웨어의 어지러운 나열에의해 당황하게된 기업인수자들은 전에없이 더욱 회의적이다. 그리고 지금 몇몇의 전문가들은 IT는 더 이상 기업에 기존의 전자기술시장보다 어떤 경쟁적 이점이나 성장도 가져다 줄 수 없다고 말한다. “비즈니스하의 대부분의 핵심요소들은 이미 자동화되었다”라고 “IT는 더 이상 중요하지않다”라는 논문을 발표한 Nicholas G. Carr가 말했다.

Does all this mean that, from here on out, tech will be -- gulp -- boring? Slow-moving? Inconsequential? It's true that some parts of info tech have probably seen their best days. Personal computers are so pervasive that they may not top 4% sales growth in coming years. Ditto servers, and mainstream corporate software may never reach double-digit growth again. Yet we've seen this movie before. The same thing happened to mainframe computers in the 1970s, as buyers flocked to new, cheaper minicomputers from Data General Corp. and Digital Equipment (DEC ) Corp. In the 1980s, minis declined as buyers poured many more billions of dollars into cheaper, more flexible PCs and servers.
이런 모든 사실들을 감안하고, IT가 침체될것인가? 몇몇의 IT부분들이 아마도 전성기를 누렸던 것은 사실이다. 개인용 컴퓨터들은 너무 만연해서 다음해에는 최대4%이상의 판매성장을 보이지는 않을지도 모른다. Ditto servers, and mainstream corporate software는 결코 두자리수의 성장률을 다시 보일 수 없을지도 모른다. 그러나 우리는 이러한 극적인 장면들을 이전에 보았었다. 같은 일들이 1970년도에 mainframe computer산업에서 구매자들이 싸고 새로운 Data General Corp.의 minicomputer에 모인것과 80년도에 구매자들이 엄청난돈을 싸고 좀더 유연한 PCs 와 servers로 돌아서서 minicomputer가 쇠퇴한일이 일어났다.

Fact is, tech has always has worked this way. Like Italian mansions built with marble from the Roman Forum, new markets emerge on the foundation of maturing technologies. Lower prices make mass markets out of niche products. And mass markets inevitably mutate and evolve into something unforeseeable. Only by the mid-1990s, when tens of millions of people had PCs, did it make sense to connect them, giving rise to what became the World Wide Web. Today, millions of people have laptops and handheld computers -- thus spurring rapid development of wireless networks. And more than 20 million U.S. homes have broadband connections. As fast Net access takes off, it will spark altogether new ways of using the Internet that we're just beginning to imagine today.
그러나 중요한것은, 기술은 항상 이런식으로 연명해간다는 점이다. 고대 로마포럼으로부터 지어진 대리석으로 만든 이탈리아인들의 mansion들처럼(아마도 속담비슷한 말일듯...) 새로운 시장은 성숙한 기술의 기반위에서 나타난다. 낮은 가격은 소규모생산품들로부터 거대한 시장을 만든다. 그리고 거대한 시장은 필수불가결하게 변형하고 예측할 수 없는 무언가로 진화한다. 천만명의 사람들이 pc를 소유했던 1990년대 중반에만 오직 그것들(위에 설명한것들)을 연결할 수 있는 의미가 있었다. 오늘날, 수백만명의 사람들이 laptop과handheld computer를 가지고 있다. 그러한이유로 무선네트워크의 급속한 발전이 촉진되고 있는것이다. 그리고 2천만명이상의 미국인들이 무선 광네트워크를 구축하고 있다.

Simply put, tech hasn't settled down yet. Its days of maturity may be decades away. The IT revolution may share many parallels with previous transformative technologies such as railroads and electricity, but it differs in one key way: The underlying technologies not only aren't slowing down, they're accelerating. Computer-chip performance keeps doubling every 18 months, and disk-drive capacity and Internet-connection speeds are improving even faster. That's spurring new products, from MP3 and DVD players to Web services for corporations, that are disrupting industries from entertainment to health care. Says Intel Corp. Chairman Andrew S. Grove, who has worked in tech for more than 40 years: "The rate of change in technology is as much today as any time in my experience."
IT는 아직은 완전히 정착하지 않았다. 그것의 성숙기는 10년후일지도 모른다. IT혁명은 이전의 철도와 전기같은 기술과 많은 유사점을 공유할지도 모른다. 그러나 그것은 하나의 중요한방법에서 다르다.: (IT의)그근간이 되는 기술이 침체기가 아닐뿐만 아니라 오히려 촉진되고 있다는 점이다. 컴퓨터칩의 기능은 18개월마다 두배가 되고있으며 드라이브용량과 인터넷연결속도는 더빠르게 개선되고있다. 그것은 기업들을위해 MP3로부터 DVD플레이어까지 새로운 상품들을 촉진하고있고, 그것들은 연예산업에서 헬스케어까지 붕괴시키고있다(아마도 음악파일등의 무단복제등으로인한 피해사례등을 간략히 말한것일것.)고 IT산업계에서 40년간 일해온 Intel Corp. Chairman Andrew S. Grove가 말했다.: “기술에있어서 변화비율은 지금까지 내경험에서 현재가 가장크다”

This rapid change also means that the savviest users of technology still have ample means to carve out an edge over laggards. Indeed, the titans of business today, from Dell to Wal-Mart Stores, as well as upstarts such as Amazon.com (AMZN ) and JetBlue Airways (JBLU ), owe much of their leadership to using info tech in special ways. Each employs some of the same technologies, whether that's Linux software or servers based on Intel chips. But it's their expertise in deploying and customizing those technologies year after year that gives them a continued competitive advantage. "Everybody has always had access to the same technology. There's nothing new there," says Microsoft Corp. Chairman William H. Gates III. "The fact is that some companies have taken technology and used it more effectively than others. And the ones that don't use technologies effectively fall behind."
또한, 이러한 급속한 변화는 기술에있어서 능숙한 사용자들이 그렇지못한 사람들에게 일침을 가할 수 있다는 의미를 가진다.(내나름대로 의역한것임) 실제로, 델에서부터 아마존이나 젯블루같이 벼락부자가된 오늘날의 경영자는 특별한 방법하에 그들의 리더쉽을 IT계에 사용할 의무가지워진다. 그들각각은 리눅스든 인텔이든지간에 비슷한 몇몇기술을 채택한다. 그러나 그들에게 계속된 경쟁적이점을 가져다주는 그런기술들을 매년마다 배치하고 알맞게 사용하는 것은 그들스스로의 능력이다. 빌게이츠역시 “새로운 것은 없다(기업경영시 기술사용에 있어서)”고 말했다. “중요한점은 몇몇의 회사들은 기술을 채택하고 그것을 남들보다 좀더 효과적으로 사용하며 그렇지 못한 이들은 뒤쳐진다”

The debate over tech's value has exploded just as the industry is finally on the rebound. From steadying orders and better-than-expected profits to the rise of promising technologies such as the wireless Internet, Linux software, and digital entertainment, tech's long winter is thawing. For the first half of the year, corporate tech spending rose 4%, according to preliminary economic data.
기술의 가치에대한 논쟁이 산업이 마침내 회복될거라는 논쟁만큼 만연하고있다. 계속된 오더 그리고 좀더 향상된 기대가치에서부터 무선인터넷이나 리눅스 그리고 디지털연예산업같은 유망한 기술의 두각으로 기술산업의 기나긴 겨울은 끝나고 있다. 임시 경제정보자료에 의하면 올해 상반기에 기업의 IT투자가 4%가 늘어났다.

But let's be clear: There will be no return to the frothy foolishness of the boom. With the weak economy, global unrest, and lingering skepticism by buyers, tech spending will probably recover to a modest 6% or so next year, and just shy of its 10% historical average in 2005. The biggest problem: Many IT buyers refuse to purchase anything that won't guarantee a return in six months. "There's a big backlash against technology and a lot of skepticism about what it can do," says technology consultant and author John Hagel III.
그러나 좀더 명확하게 해보자: 이젠 더 이상 바보같은 거품붐으로 되돌아가진 않을것이다. 악화된경제난, 국제적불안, 그리고 구매자들에의한 회의적인 주춤거림으로 IT산업에대한 투자는 아마도 약6%나 2005년내에 평균10%정도로 회복될 것이다. 가장큰문제는 많은 IT구매자들이 6개월내에 (이익을)보장되지 않는다면 어떤것도 구매를 거부한다는 것에 있다. “기술이 무엇을 할수 있는것인지 대해 많은 회의론자들의 반발이 있다:라고 technology consultant and author John Hagel III가 말했다.

In stark contrast to the boom, nowadays the customer is in the driver's seat, and tech companies must come to grips with this reality. This suggests a bracing shift in industry economics and company behavior. Partly, it's that lower prices will give customers more of tech's benefits -- and profits. To accommodate these value-conscious customers, producers must focus even more narrowly on what they do best and outsource the rest to lower-cost providers. Companies increasingly rely on contract manufacturers such as Flextronics International (FLEX ) Ltd. and Solectron (SLR ) Corp. to do the heavy lifting. And the process is picking up speed as companies start to farm out basic design and programming tasks as well to lower-paid workers in India and elsewhere.
단순한 붐의 시대와는 뚜렷한 대조로, 오늘날에는 소비자가 결정권을 쥐고있다.그리고 IT회사들은 이러한 현실을 지각해야만한다. 이것은 산업경제와 회사방침에 긴장감있는 변화를 요구한다. 낮은가격은 소비자들에게 다소 기술의 혜택-과 이익-을 맛보게한다. 이러한 가치중심적 소비자들을 수용하기 위해서 생산자들은 반드시 최선을 다하고 낮은가격 제공자들에게 이익을 분배해야만한다.(??) 회사들은 점차적으로 Flextronics International (FLEX ) Ltd 나 Solectron (SLR ) Corp.에 의존하게되고, 그과정은 낮은임금을받는 인도등에 계획된업무와 기본틀을 하청함으로써 속도에 박차를 가하고있다.

Just as important in this new post-frenzy period, tech suppliers no longer can act like door-to-door salesmen, making quick deals and skipping town. Instead, they need to be craftspeople, plumbers, teachers, and insurers, too -- slowing down, fixing software bugs and hardware glitches before shipping products out the door, and guaranteeing that their products play well with others. Says W. Brian Arthur, an economist at the think tank Santa Fe Institute: "The main beneficiaries will be the Wal-Marts and the General Foods -- the overall economy."
여기서부턴 요약 - (월마트나 제너럴푸드등을 모범으로 이제는 IT업계가 진보된 마케팅을 갖춰서 경영을 해야 한다는 뜻)

A raft of new technologies hints at the promise. As everything from the transistor radio to the PC to the cell phone has shown, technologies that attract entirely new waves of customers are the key to tech's renewal. And they do it by making tech not just cheaper but also much easier to use. Wireless networks, for instance, are extending the Web to the wide world by cutting our electronic leashes. Networks of tiny sensors give us a digital view into the physical world, allowing inventory to be tracked precisely and ultimately producing digital products that are much smarter, such as home-security systems that recognize family and friends. And corporate IT wizards are hard at work trying to make software available as Web services. The hope, ultimately, is that they can offer computing like a utility, as easy to tap as power from a socket.
(무선인터넷등을 예로 IT산업에대한 서광을 보여주고 이제는 예전처럼 싼것만 추구하는 것이 아니라 사용상의 편리함까지 추가되어야 한다고 함.그리고 홈시큐러티시스템등을 예로 IT기술의 진보를 말하고 다시한번 사용의 간편함을 강조)

Getting there will be a wrenching process for everyone involved. Success and even survival in this new era will require big shifts in strategy by startups and giants alike. The largest and strongest may survive dwindling margins and slower sales by building huge economies of scale: Think Hewlett-Packard (HPQ ) purchase of Compaq, Oracle's hostile pursuit of PeopleSoft (PSFT ), and Dell's solitary romp through the computer industry. At the same time, many tech companies will have to adopt brand-new business models. Software makers, for instance, will have to switch from shipping shrink-wrapped boxes to providing services over the Net.
(이러한 변화에 따라서 전략상의 큰변화 예시.휴렛패커드나 델등을 예로 변화된 전략의 장점설명. 소프트웨어 발명가들의 변화설명)

The economy depends on the tech industry getting this right and recharging its growth. Up to 10% of the gross domestic product comes from tech, which accounts for nearly 50% of all capital spending. Many economists believe IT's productivity benefits fueled much of the prosperity of the 1990s, so it's crucial that advances keep coming for our standard of living to improve.
(전체경제에서 IT산업의 비중을 설명(전체 국산품의 약10%, 이것은 모든자본투자의 약50%정도라고 함). 이러한 IT산업이 생활의 질향상을 가져다 줄것이라고 함)

Trouble is, obstacles abound. Tech's finance infrastructure remains a mess, with venture capitalists awash in money but timid about investing it in new ideas. Just 15% of venture capital has gone to early-stage companies this year, compared with 35% in 1995. Maybe you can't blame them: Corporate customers are wary of buying technology from startups that may not survive. Legal and regulatory issues dog such potential growth markets as digital entertainment. Record companies and movie studios claim they lose up to $5.6 billion from illegal file-sharing and digital copying. And heightened fears about security and privacy could easily put the brakes on adoption of new digital technologies. According to the FBI, reports of Net fraud tripled last year, to 48,000 cases. In short, it's a mine field.
(좋은점만 있는 것이 아니라 단점도 지적. 1.투자자들의 검증되지않은 IT회사에대한 투자의 회피. 2.(소리바다와 같은)파일공유등에 따른 음반회사들의 피해. 이런 security와 privacy에대한 불안감이 새로운 디지털기술의 채택을 가로막는다. 또 FBI보고서에 따르면 IT기술 사기행위가 작년보다 세배가 늘어났다고 함)

As disruptive as these transitions are, they're nothing new for tech. From the steam engine to the automobile, every technological revolution has suffered such cyclical downturns. Yet according to Carlota Perez, author of Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages, they don't mark the end of a revolution. Invariably, they set the stage for the longest periods of growth -- the true economic golden ages lasting roughly two more decades beyond the crash.
(이러한것들이 IT의 발전을 저해하지만, 그래도 발전가능성 및 기간이 굉장할 것이라고 함)

The last tech age, the mass manufacturing revolution led by the auto, offers close parallels to info tech today. As the price of cars plummeted early last century, sales rocketed. The number of cars sold tripled between 1919 to 1929. But financial speculation following autos' "installation period" got out of hand during the Roaring Twenties, leading to what Perez calls the "turning-point recession": the Great Depression. Today, that turning point is the recession, albeit less severe, sparked by the telecom and dot-com meltdowns.
(지난 기술혁명시기에는 대량생산 혁명이 자동화에 의해 이끌어졌고 오늘날의 IT와 매우 유사하다고함. 결과적으로 TELECOM과 DOT-COM에 의해 IT계의 발전을 말함.)

This is where the comparisons become most striking. Continuing low prices driven by manufacturing efficiencies, plus plenty of cheap oil, pushed car sales up well before the Depression was over. Sales rose more steeply after World War II and through the 1960s -- the golden age of the automobile. Today, tech still has its equivalent of cheap oil: the relentless march of greater chip density at lower costs, plus even faster jumps in storage capacity and the accelerating spread of fast Net access. "Steam engines and electricity went through one big wave of improvement -- and not even one as big as the one for IT," says economist Eric Brynjolfsson of Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "IT keeps improving, year over year, exponentially."
(IT의 발전가능성이 어느 무엇보다 크고 매년 지속적으로 발전할거라고 함)

Those improvements are starting to bring tech buyers out of hiding. JetBlue Airways Corp. has invested in a new technology called "voice over IP," which lets corporate data networks handle phone traffic using Internet protocols. That allows its reservation operators to take customer calls from home -- and not just to save on office costs. "They're a happier, more motivated, more loyal workforce," says CEO David G. Neeleman. As a result, he says, JetBlue's call-center attrition rate is just 5%, vs. 30% industrywide. That's helping JetBlue earn industry-leading profit margins of 19%.
(이러한 발전 가능성으로 인한 구매자들이 능동적이 됨. VOICE OVER IP와 JETBLUE'S CALL-CENTER의 예로 각기업들의 새로운 기술에대한 투자를 설명. 이런 투자로 젯블루의 콜센터는 쇠락의 비율이 전체산업의 30%에 대비해 겨우 5%라고 함. 이것이 바로 젯블루가 이익을 얻게 해준다고 함))

Buyers also are getting excited about newly emerging technologies that promise to make their operations more efficient. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is making a big investment in radio-frequency identification (RFID) chips, which will allow it and its suppliers to track goods all the way from the factory to the checkout counter. Such tracking is expected to reduce theft and other losses, cut the number of people in warehouses and stores who must track goods, and boost sales by making sure no item is out of stock. Sanford C. Bernstein (AC ) & Co. estimates that by 2007, Wal-Mart alone could boost earnings 38% by using RFID widely. "It's a great example of where a pretty proven technology has a potential to have a huge impact," says Wal-Mart Chief Information Officer Linda Dillman.
(계속적으로 성장하는 IT회사들소개. RFID-화물의 안전을 보장하고 정확한 위치를 추적하는 프로그램- 그로인한 비용절감효과설명)

Most promising are new technologies that appeal to the digital unwashed, potentially tech's greatest opportunity in the years to come. Less than 12% of the world's population has a PC, and, even with Net-connected cell phones and Internet cafés, just 13% are on the Web. One example of the new products: smart phones that are in every way computers, with Web connections and cameras. Gartner Dataquest (IT ) expects revenues from such products to jump 140% this year, to $4.9 billion. Indeed, consumers can't seem to get enough technology. Some of the fastest-growing new markets are consumer products, from DVD players to MP3 players. Says Roger B. McNamee, veteran tech investor with Silver Lake Partners: "The consumer has gone from being a marginal opportunity to being a huge opportunity [for tech]."
(계속되는 IT발전가능성의 이유설명. 컴퓨터나 셀폰등은 아직도 전체인구에비해 소유자가 많지 않은이유로 판매가능성이 높다. 그리고 같은 맥락으로 엠피3나 디비디시장소개. )

To take advantage of these new opportunities, however, tech companies must reinvent themselves -- fast. Instead of applying the advances of silicon, storage, and network economics to hiking performance on existing products for the same old customers, they must turn those forces to making products, existing and new, that are cheaper. That's a tough transition.
(이러한 새로운 기회들을 만족하기 위해 IT회사들이 자신을 재조명하고 발전시켜야한다고 주장)

Intel, for instance, is struggling to reconcile the billions of dollars it spends each year on chip factories with the fact that many customers don't need PCs with the latest chip. So it's aiming at entirely new markets, such as cell phones, handheld computers, and networking gear, whose much larger volume could make up for their lower profitability. Those three markets alone are a potential $45 billion opportunity, reckons market watcher Precursor Group Advisors LLC, compared with $25 billion for PC and server chips. It also has vowed to give each chip wireless capabilities, hoping to ride that wave.
(인텔의 예. 인텔은 최신버젼의 칩을 생산하는것의 성장가능성을 예견하여 투자. )

All the way up tech's value chain, it's the same story. As its PC-software business slows, Microsoft is moving beyond its mainstay corporate market into new fields such as video-game players. That's increasingly forcing it to become a different company, selling not just bits on disks but machines and multimedia programming.
(마이크로 소프트사는 피씨소프트웨어사업의 정체를 예견하고, 그들의 주무대를 비디오게임산업으로 옮기기로 결정함.)

The pain of existing tech suppliers, however, is the gain of startups. Newcomers with solid technology, from Salesforce.com Inc. and its software-as-online-service to Google Inc. and its ace search engine, are still getting venture money and even eyeing IPOs. There are also huge opportunities in new IT services, suggests Intel's Grove. Just as Ross Perot created a multibillion dollar services business in Electronic Data Systems (EDS ) Corp., Grove thinks startups could emerge to run legitimate file-sharing operations for entertainment companies or medical databases. Particularly promising is that startups are getting funding for risky new technologies such as nanotechnology and biomechanical livers.
(EDS를 예로 새로운 IT서비스의 무한한 발전가능성을 말함. 소리바다와같은 파일공유에대한 IT산업 그리고 나노테크등에대한 발전 가능성 설명.)

This constant renewal is the essence of tech. It was in the last big tech downturn, in 1985-86, that some of today's titans got rolling -- Dell, for one. Today, Dell dominates PCs, with sales having risen 14% last year, to $35.4 billion. Founder Michael S. Dell's view today? "There's no shortage of new ideas and new technology coming. The evolution of technology is showing no signs of maturing whatsoever." The industry may well require more steady leadership in the difficult years to come. But for tech to remain a vital part of the economy, its leaders must make sure they don't slow down as they grow up.
(이러한 끈임없는 부활이 IT의 근간이다. 1985-86동안 델같은 큰회사도 위험했던 큰침체의 위험에 있었지만 오늘날 델은 피씨산업을 지배하고 있다. 새로운 아이디어와 기술은 매우 풍부하다. 기술의 진화는 무엇이든간에 끝이 보이지 않는다. IT산업계는 다가올 힘든날을 대비하여 끊임없는 리더쉽이 요구된다. IT가 경제에서 중요한 부분을 담당하는 것을 유지하기 위해서는 IT계의 리더들이 반드시 자기성장을 늦추어서는 안된다. )

By Robert D. Hof
Contributing: Wendy Zellner and Andrew Park in Dallas, Jay Greene in Seattle, and Jim Kerstetter in San Mateo, Calif.