Re: Re: 우크라이나에 서방전투기가 필요한 이유

[위종민]

https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/05/why-does-ukraine-want-western-jets.html

러시아의 지상배치 방공망 제압, 그리고 포격전으로 흐르는 전쟁 양상에서 포병의  부담과 탄약부족 완화를 위한 지상지원을 위해 서방제 전투기가 필요하다고 주장하네요. 

대신 조종사도 조종사지만 서방제 전투기의 정비인력을 양성하는 데엔 몇 년이 걸리고, 임시활주로에서 운영하기엔 적합하지 않은데 이런 전투기를 운용할 인프라도 모자란 데다가, 러시아가 인프라 확충을 방해할 위험이 크다고 합니다. 

2021년 우크라이나의 공군 예산이 11억 달러였는데 서방제 전투기는 무장 제외 가격만 대당 1억불에 운용비만 500만 달러라 우크라이나 군비에 큰 부담을 줄 수도 있습니다. 

Why Does Ukraine Want Western Jets?

COMMENTARY

(RealClearDefense)

Two U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft fly over Iraq and Syria, July 17, 2021 Photo by Senior Airman Taylor Crul/U.S. Air Force

by John Hoehn and William Courtney

May 3, 2023

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine has requested Western fighter jets. Why does it want them? Of what use could they be? And what are some of their limitations?

Military airplanes are like cars. Different airplanes are designed for different jobs. After all, you would not use a Honda Civic to race a Corvette. Some aircraft are designed to defend the skies. Others are designed to support troops on the ground. Still others are the SUVs of the fighter world, capable of performing many missions.

A March 2023 Congressional Research Service (PDF) report outlines capability gaps which Ukrainian combat air may need to overcome: air superiority; suppression of air defenses; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; and ground attack. Western fighters are designed to meet these gaps. They could fill in where Ukraine's frontline fleet of MiG-29 Fulcrums and Su-27 Flankers fall short. The USSR built them to dogfight with Western jets, but they are decades old, built when the Soviet Union still existed. Modern Russian fighters, such as the Su-35 and MiG-31, outclass Ukraine's aircraft.

Flying high, MiG-29s can detect, warn of, or destroy some airborne threats before ground-based radars see them. Airborne and ground-based defenses destroy a large majority of Russian cruise missiles and drones attacking fixed targets. These defenses also help deter Russian aircraft from flying over Ukrainian-controlled territory.

Ukraine may face shortages of ground-based air defenses and ammunition. MiG-29s help close an important gap.

Share on Twitter

MiG-29s help Ukraine defend cities. Russian cruise missiles and drones attack energy and other infrastructure and do considerable if sometimes temporary damage. But Ukraine may face shortages of ground-based air defenses and ammunition. MiG-29s help close an important gap.

Of what use could Western fighters be?

Russia has positioned advanced ground-based air defenses in parts of Ukraine it occupies. They increase risks to Ukrainian aircraft of flying over Russian-controlled territory. So, to support ground force operations Ukraine needs to suppress or destroy Russian air defenses.

Senior U.S. military officials say the current conflict is essentially an artillery duel. Both Russia and Ukraine may be running low on artillery ammunition—including shells for tubed artillery and rockets from the now-famous High Mobility Artillery Rocket System. Western fighters could target many Russian positions and help alleviate the ammunition shortage.

What are the limitations of Western fighters?

Ukraine would need well-trained people to fly and maintain Western jets. While some observers focus on pilots, training maintainers (PDF) to safely fix jets can take years. Shortages of experienced maintainers could be offset by Western contractor personnel, but this could be costly. It could also be risky; Russian precision-guided missiles or drones might target maintenance facilities.

Some Western fighters, such as widely available F-16s, do best on long, pristine runways. They could face difficulties on the rougher, former Soviet ones dispersed across Ukraine. As the Royal United Services Institute has noted, Ukraine lacks infrastructure to safely operate these types of jets.

To bring in Western aircraft, Ukraine might need to repave and potentially extend a number of runways, a process which Russia would likely detect. If only a few airfields were suitable and in known locations, focused Russian attacks could impede Ukrainian F-16s from flying.

To bring in Western aircraft, Ukraine might need to repave and potentially extend a number of runways, a process which Russia would likely detect.

Share on Twitter

Western fighters are also expensive to buy and maintain, and new ones could take years to manufacture. In 2021 Ukraine spent about $1.1 billion (PDF) on its air force. A Western jet could cost as much as $100 million to buy and at least another (PDF) $5 million per year to operate. And this does not include the cost of missile and bomb armaments. Based on past budgets, Ukraine might fall into a trap akin to Iraq's struggle to find funding.

For fighting this year, Ukraine may rely primarily on several dozen legacy MiG-29s and the transfer of some three dozen more from Poland and Slovakia. MiG-29s are armed with dated, former Soviet infrared- and radar-guided air-to-air missiles, although some of Ukraine's have been adapted to also carry modern U.S. anti-radiation missiles and precision-guided bombs.

In future years if the war continues, Western jets and armaments might prove pivotal. But Ukraine and Western nations will have to carefully weigh what they expect to gain from combat air options.

---

John Hoehn is an associate policy researcher at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation and former military analyst with the Congressional Research Service. William Courtney is an adjunct senior fellow at RAND and former U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan and Georgia.

This commentary originally appeared on RealClearDefense on May 3, 2023. Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional expertise and often on their peer-reviewed research and analysis.

• Share on Facebook
• Share on Twitter
• Share on LinkedIn

[Minowski(김유철)]

진지하게 전술전투기 지원은 전후에나 가능하겠죠. 본문에서 지적하듯 지금 상황에서는 소화시킬 수 없는 물건이겠고.... 정말로 고성능 전술전투기는 꼭 필요하지만, 너무 비싸고 다루기 힘들다는 것이 뼈져리게 느껴집니다.

[위종민]

파일럿과 정비를 포함한 유지보수역량을 가능한 한 자국화시켜야지 외주 믿고 있었다간 최악은 아프간, 아니면 대금 못 내서 비행정지된 남아공 그리펜 꼴이 나 버리니... 차라리 제로베이스면 모를까, 체계를 제대로 바꾼다는 게 쉽지 않은 일이네요.