(Dec 2, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

[kyonmanchung]

(Dec 2, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

안녕하세요? 어느새 12월이 되었습니다. 연말 마무리, 2019년 새해 준비 잘 하시기 바랍니다. (중국을 다녀오느라 지난 주 Weekly 게재 못하였습니다) 

1. US will hold off on raising China tariffs to 25% as Trump and Xi agree to a 90-day trade truce, CNBC

- G20 Summit에서 만난 Trump 대통령과 Xi 주석이 90일간 무역전쟁을 중지하기로 합의하였습니다.

이로써 미국이 내년초부터 $200bn중국 상품에 대한 관세율을 10% ->25%로 인상하기로 했던 것을 현 세율 10%로 유지하고, 그리고 Trump가 수차 경고해 왔던 $267bn 중국 상품에 대한 추가관세 조치는 일단 시행하지 않게 되었습니다.

양국은 중국의 대미 무역흑자를 줄이기 위해 미국산 농산물, 에너지, 산업재 등을 상당량(very substantial, amount) 수입하기로 하고, 향후 90일간 지적재산권, 농산물 문제 등을 협의하기로 약속..

<생각>.

Trump가 경고했던 $267bn 추가 관세 조치는 시행하기 어려울 것으로 생각해 왔는데, 일단 그렇게 되었군요. 최근 GM이 Trump의 격분에도 불구, 공장 2을 폐쇄하고 직원을 대량 해고하게 된 주 이유는 중국 매출 부진 때문인 듯. 사실 2009년 망해가던 GM, Ford 등이 회생하게 된 데는 중국 현지공장(4개?) 건설 -> 매출 급증 덕분이었죠. 기타 Apple 등 대부분 다국적기업들이 충국과 Supply-chain관계를 형성하고 있는데, 양국 분쟁으로 매출 줄고 수익성도 낮아짐. ->시장이 알고 반응(주가 하락 등).

무역전쟁에는 승자가 없다는 말대로 미국의 손해도 크죠(개인적으로 미국이 더 손해)

비교우위에 입각한 무역으로 세계경제가 성장 발전했으면 좋으련만, Trump 생각에는 미국과 중국의 현 관계가 무역만의 문제가 아닌 소위 Thucydides trap에 빠진 것으로 생각하고 있지 않은지?

2. Trump claims 'billions of dollars are pouring into the coffers of the USA' because of his tariffs, but that's just a drop in the bucket, CNBC

- Trump가 중국상품에 대한 관세인상 조치로 billions of dollars가 미국재정으로 쏟아져 들어온다고 주장. 그러나 미국 재정 보고서에 의하면 관세 수입은 전체 세입의 조족지혈(새발의 피)에 불과하군요.

지난 9월30일 끝난 2018 회계연도의 관세 수입은 $41bn로 전체 세입 $3.3tr의 0.2%에 해당하고, 전 회계연도 대비 $7bn 증가에 그침..

그런데 문제는 관세를 미국 수입상이 부담한다는 것(중국 수출상이 아님)이고, 수입상은 cost 상승 분을 제품가격에 반영하게 되어 결국은 미국 소비자가 관세를 부담하는 것임. 최근 한 조사결과에 따르면, Trump의 무역정책으로 인해 2019년 가구당 $2,400의 부담(임금 하락 + 물가 상승)이 발생한다고 하네요.

(Trump가 이걸 몰라서 하는 얘기는 아닐 테고, 미국 제조업체들이 미국산 원재료를 사용하라는 뜻이겠지만, 아무튼 대통령이 이런 식으로 말하는 건 좀).

3. Richard Branson says Virgin Galactic will take people to space before Christmas, CNN

- 영국 Virgin group의 Richard Branson 회장이 올 Xmas 이전에 ‘Virgin Galactic’사가 승객을 태우고 우주여행을 갈 것이라고 주장.

우주비행사에 의해 시험비행을 거친 뒤 승객을 태울 것이며, 자신이 그 첫 승객이 될 것이라고 하네요.

SpaceShipTwo(Galactic's rocket-powered plane)는 모선 비행기 아래에서 분리된 뒤

저궤도 우주로 향할 것이며, 이미 수차례 지상에서 시험비행에 성공했지만 여전히 위험. . 우주비행선은 이륙 8초만에 시속 2,300mile의 최고 속도에 달함

만약 Branson이 승객을 실은 우주비행을 성공하면, Jeff Bezos(Amazon CEO)의 Blue Origin 사와의 승객 우주비행 경쟁에서 승리하는 것이 되고, 나아가 Elon Musk(Tesla CEO)'s SpaceX보다도 유인 우주비행에서는 앞서는 결과가 됨.

<참고> SpaceX는 400km 상공에 있는 International Space Station에 수년째 물자를 공급하고, reusable Falcon9 rocket을 발사 - 재사용하고 있으며, 내년부터 ISS에 우주인들을 실어 나를 계획임. 따라서 Virgin Galactic의 100km 저궤도 우주비행과는 격이 좀 다르죠.  아무튼 천재기업인들간의 우주산업 경쟁이 치열. 한국은?

정견만 드림

1. US will hold off on raising China tariffs to 25% as Trump and Xi agree to a 90-day trade truce, CNBC

Kevin Breuninger | Javier E. David

2018.12.1. Published 2 Hours Ago Updated 1 Hour Ago

• Xi Jinping and Donald Trump discussed a range of issues — among them the trade dispute that has left over $200 billion worth of goods hanging in the balance.
• "President Trump has agreed that on January 1, 2019, he will leave the tariffs on $200 billion worth of product at the 10 percent rate, and not raise it to 25 percent at this time," the White House said.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump put their bilateral trade war on pause momentarily, striking an agreement to hold off on slapping additional tariffs on each other's goods after January 1, as talks continue between both countries.

In a White House readout of a dinner at the G-20 summit in Argentina, Xi and Trump discussed a range of nettlesome issues — among them the trade dispute that has left over $200 billion worth of goods hanging in the balance.

"President Trump has agreed that on January 1, 2019, he will leave the tariffs on $200 billion worth of product at the 10 percent rate, and not raise it to 25 percent at this time," the statement read. Over the next 90 days, American and Chinese officials will continue to negotiate lingering disagreements on technology transfer, intellectual property and agriculture.

"Both parties agree that they will endeavor to have this transaction completed within the next 90 days. If at the end of this period of time, the parties are unable to reach an agreement, the 10 percent tariffs will be raised to 25 percent," the statement added.

Meanwhile, "China will agree to purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial, and other product from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between our two countries. China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product from our farmers immediately," the White House said.

The Trump administration had threatened to more than double the tariffs it has already slapped on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, while Xi's government has put targeted tariffs on $110 billion in U.S. goods. The standoff has raised fears among investors and businesses that the global economy could be dragged down by the dispute between the world's two largest economies.

Trump, who made U.S. trade policy a central plank of his platform as a presidential candidate in 2016, wants to address specific gripes with China's trade practices, especially its alleged theft of U.S. intellectual property.

Trump touted the G-20 meeting thus far as a "great success" in a pair of tweets Saturday. But he postponed a press conference, which was scheduled to follow a summit meeting, until after the funeral of former President George H.W. Bush, who died at age 94 on Friday.

In a joint declaration, the group of nations said the current multilateral trading system is "falling short of its objectives and there is room for improvement," and supported reforms to the World Trade Organization.

1-2. G20: US and China agree to suspend new trade tariffs, BBC News

• 54 minutes ago, 2018 12 01

US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have agreed to halt new trade tariffs for 90 days to allow for talks, the US says.

The two men met in Buenos Aires after the G20 summit for their first talks since a trade war erupted this year.

China says they agreed not to impose any new trade tariffs after 1 January.

At the summit earlier on Saturday, the G20 leaders agreed a joint declaration that notes divisions over trade but does not criticise protectionism.

What was agreed?

Ahead of the G20, Mr Trump had told US media he expected to go ahead with plans to raise tariffs on $200bn (£157bn) of Chinese goods - first introduced in September - from 10% to 25%, starting in January.

The White House says this move is now suspended for 90 days but adds, "If at the end of this period of time, the parties are unable to reach an agreement, the 10 percent tariffs will be raised to 25 percent."

In return, the White House adds, China agreed to buy an unspecified but "very substantial" amount of agricultural, energy, industrial and other products.

Chinese state TV said earlier: "No additional tariffs will be imposed after January 1, and negotiations between the two sides will continue."

• US-China trade war in 300 words

Both sides have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars' worth of goods. The US has hit $250bn of Chinese goods with tariffs since July, and China has retaliated by imposing duties on $110bn of US products.

Mr Trump had also said that if talks in Argentina were unsuccessful, he would carry out a threat to hit the remaining $267bn of annual Chinese exports to the US with tariffs of 10-25%.

US-China trade divisions meant an Asian economic summit earlier this month was unable to agree a formal leaders' statement for the first time in its history.

What else happened in Buenos Aires?

French leader Emmanuel Macron told reporters that the World Trade Organization, the body that regulates trade disputes, needed to be modernised.

A senior US official told Reuters that it was the first time that the G20 had recognised that the WTO was "currently falling short of meeting its objectives" and needed reform.

• China v the US: Not just a trade war
• Erdogan demands Khashoggi extraditions

On Friday Mr Trump briefly met Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the G20, a Russian official told Reuters.

Earlier the US president said he had postponed a planned press conference "out of respect for the Bush family", following the death of former President George HW Bush, at the age of 94.

Earlier on in the summit, emerging economies denounced protectionism

2. Trump claims 'billions of dollars are pouring into the coffers of the USA' because of his tariffs, but that's just a drop in the bucket, CNBC

John W. Schoen

2018.11.30

• President Donald Trump Thursday tweeted that "billions of Dollars are pouring into the coffers of the U.S.A. because of the Tariffs being charged to China, and there is a long way to go."
• But the Trump administration's higher tariffs on Chinese imports are just a drop in the U.S. fiscal bucket, according to the latest financial statements from the Treasury.
• Tariffs collected in the latest fiscal year ended Sept. 30 rose by less than $7 billion from fiscal 2017, according to the Treasury. That is less than 0.2 percent of the $3.3 trillion the Treasury took in during the latest fiscal year.

President Donald Trump on Thursday celebrated his administration's tariffs on Chinese goods, claiming that they're bringing in "billions of dollars" for the U.S. However, according to Treasury Department data, the tariff revenue is just a drop in the fiscal bucket.

Trump tweeted: "Billions of Dollars are pouring into the coffers of the U.S.A. because of the Tariffs being charged to China, and there is a long way to go."

Yet tariffs collected in the latest fiscal year ended Sept. 30 rose by less than $7 billion from fiscal 2017, according to the Treasury. That amounts to less than 0.2 percent of the $3.3 trillion the Treasury took in during the latest fiscal year.

Trump departed midday for a summit of world leaders in Argentina, where he is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss a widening trade war between Washington and Beijing. Trump said Monday that he expected to move ahead with raising tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25 percent from the current 10 percent, and repeated his threat to slap tariffs on all remaining imports from China.

When Trump first sparked global trade tensions with major U.S. trading partners in July, U.S. businesses had hoped the disputes would be resolved quickly. But while the U.S., Canada and Mexico are set to sign an updated trade deal on Friday, negotiations with China have shown little progress.

As U.S. companies struggle to hold the line on prices while paying more for imported parts and supplies produced in China, Trump sought to highlight the benefits to American taxpayers from the increased tariffs collected by the Treasury. But companies are widely expected to pass along the cost of higher tariffs to American consumers. One recent study estimated the economic impact of Trump's trade policies, in lost wages and higher prices, at $2,400 per household in 2019.

The U.S. government closed the 2018 fiscal year $779 billion in the red, its highest deficit in six years, according to the latest Treasury Department financial statements.

The increased shortfall came as Republican tax cuts cut into revenues and expenses rose as higher interest rates raised the cost of carrying the growing national debt.

Trump and congressional Republicans have touted the tax cuts as a boost to growth and jobs. Independent tax analysts expect the deficit to surge as corporate and individual tax cuts kick in and government spending increases.

3. Richard Branson says Virgin Galactic will take people to space before Christmas, CNN

By Jackie Wattles, CNN Business

Updated 2133 GMT (0533 HKT) November 30, 2018

Miami (CNN Business) Richard Branson says Virgin Galactic is on the verge of a major achievement: It will send astronauts into space by Christmas.

The billionaire entrepreneur told CNN Business' Rachel Crane this week he is "pretty confident" his space tourism venture can achieve its milestone by the end of the year.

"We have a brilliant group of astronauts who literally believe 100% in the project, and give it their everything," he said.

The first few trips to space will be flown by test pilots without anyone else on board. Branson says he will be the first passenger. Eventually, paying tourists will also make the trip.

"I'm not allowed up until the [test pilots] have broken it in a few times, first," he said. "I would love to have gone on this very [first] flight, but [pilots] are incredibly brave people."

SpaceShipTwo, Galactic's rocket-powered plane, will fly into space after it detaches from beneath the wing of a mothership. It has been thoroughly tested on the ground and at lower altitudes, Branson said. But, the first few flights to space will be "the dangerous ones."

The pilots will fly the space plane at at 2,300 miles per hour, accelerating to top speed in about eight seconds, Branson said.

Earlier this year, the company resumed powered test flights of the rebuilt SpaceShipTwo, named VSS Unity. The latest test in July sent the craft to a peak altitude of 32.3 miles. The goal is to send VSS Unity more than 50 miles above Earth, high enough to earn passengers astronaut wings from the US government.

If Virgin Galactic reaches space before the year is done, it'll put Branson's venture ahead of its direct competitor, Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin. Founded in 2000, Blue Origin also plans to offer paying customers suborbital flights. Galactic could also beat Elon Musk's SpaceX — which has a booming business making unmanned trips to orbit and is gearing up to fly astronauts to the International Space Station next year.

"Safety's all that matters if you're putting people into space," he said. "So none of us will race to be the first."

But, he added, "Virgin Galactic will be the first."

"Elon's done extraordinary things. We hope to do extraordinary things. Jeff, I'm sure, will do extraordinary things," Branson said. "The demand for space travel, whether it's satellites, putting people into space, is enormous...So, exciting times ahead."

The design and flight control systems of SpaceShipTwo were overhauled following a 2014 test flight crash that killed a co-pilot.

Branson has said the accident made him question whether to continue pursuing his riskiest business venture. But the company said it received an outpouring of support, including from customers who had reserved $200,000 to $250,000 tickets to one day ride in SpaceShipTwo. Hundreds of people are still lined up for a shot.

The flight will offer tourists a few minutes of weightlessness and views of Earth's curved horizon.

It's not clear when Virgin Galactic will be fully operational.

Branson is known to set deadlines that aren't met. Virgin Galactic has been developing SpaceShipTwo since 2004, and Branson initially said commercial rides would begin in 2007. Eleven years later, the firm is still working on getting its 600 customers into space.

"Space is difficult. Rocket science is rocket science," Branson said. "I obviously would love to prove our critics wrong, and I'm reasonably confident that before Christmas, we will do so. I think once we're in space, we'll obviously need to do a number of other test flights before I go up, and then before we start putting the ... astronauts who signed up to go into space with us."

---------------------------------------------------

G-20 Talks Plod Ahead as Optimism Gives Way to Laundry-List Deal, Bloomberg

By Raymond Colitt, Josh Wingrove, Helene Fouquet, and Ilya Arkhipov

,‎2018‎년 ‎12월‎ ‎1‎일‎ ‎오전‎ ‎5‎:‎52

• Sherpas still laboring over communique for leaders to sign
• Testing points include wording over trade amid protectionism

At one point this week, several Group of 20 negotiators threw their hands in the air and started talking openly about having no communique to present to their leaders on Saturday to sign.

The frustration reflects the tensions around trade policy in an era of resurgent protectionism -- already underway before Donald Trump became U.S. president but hastened by his elevation -- and the pressure on negotiators after the failure at recent gatherings to get, or sustain, a final agreement. Right now that means the most likely outcome is a wishy-washy document produced after "sherpas" negotiate through Friday night.

For the past couple of days sherpas have been looking at either a watered down agreement or no communique at all, amid the realization this could be the first summit since the G-20 began a decade ago to end without a formal statement. But with leaders already in Argentina for their two-day gathering, the desire now is to push on towards something they can call a deal.

To get there, hot-button issues are likely to be mentioned only in very broad and general terms, according to at least four people with direct knowledge of the talks. Some of them said they were confident of getting a final communique, but would not detail any of its content.

The process of drafting a communique for the Argentina meeting has been "unprecedentedly long,” Russia’s sherpa Svetlana Lukash said. “We will continue to work tonight and it will be the fifth day of drafting. We are working very hard. It’s very complicated.” While key differences remain, "I think we still have a chance to agree on a final communique."

Expected to be off the list is any mention of the disquiet many leaders feel about the brutal killing of columnist and critic Jamal Khashoggi in October in the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul. Even a Canadian push for a line saying that members respect the freedom of the press is likely to be off-limits, presumably unpalatable to nations such as Turkey that have also been accused of abusing such freedoms.

Also unlikely to make it into the document is a unified statement of concern over renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine. That has been handled already by a separate statement issued Friday by foreign ministers from the smaller Group of Seven nations, which does not include Russia.

There is lingering disagreement over climate issues in the communique, one official said.

Sticking Point

But trade remains the biggest sticking point, with negotiators at odds over how to describe growing tensions in the world. China and the U.S., the countries spearheading a commercial standoff, at least agreed to reference the multilateral trade system, a small gesture by the U.S. in acknowledging global trade rules, according to one official. Even so, that is being seen by some European officials as a failure to defend the existing order.

Asked about the contents of a draft statement, a U.S. official familiar with the talks simply said progress was being made.

What they could agree on is something that is more tangible and measurable -- the pace of economic growth. While global expansion continues, the balance of risks has worsened since finance ministers last met in the Argentine capital in July. The document is likely to cite U.S. interest rate hikes, trade tensions and geopolitical risks as the main culprits.

"Nobody sees a crisis but the risks have become more apparent, the mood more somber," Brazil’s Finance Minister Eduardo Guardia said in an interview. "There’s risk ahead that needs to be taken seriously."

Smaller groups

Some of the discussions highlighted the cracks in the overall group. Earlier Friday the so-called BRICS nations -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- spoke out in favor of multilateral trade, while the G-7 issued its statement on Ukraine.

"Frankly, there are a lot of issues at play in the world where strong statements from the G-7 are important and valuable," Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s foreign minister and G-7 host, told reporters in Buenos Aires.

Eager to counter Trump on climate and migration issues, French President Emmanuel Macron is pushing for a common front with like-minded countries of "goodwill" to prevent a watering down of language on the Paris climate accord. One of those countries Macron seeks to enlist is Japan, an official said, which takes the mantle as G-20 host in 2019. Publicly at least, though, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has shown little desire to act in ways that might upset economic ties between the U.S. and Japan.

A second, consecutive late night of negotiations could still produce something on Saturday that wouldn’t look like failure. But as one delegate to Argentina this year put it, the document is increasingly looking like a laundry list, rather than a road map for global policies.

“In negotiating, the U.S. side always tenaciously put American interests first, but we believed that it was in our interest to find common ground in the end because the U.S. benefited from multilateral cooperation,” said Mark Sobel, a lead negotiator for the U.S. on G-20 summit communiques from 2008 to 2014.

“Should that not prove possible in Buenos Aires, as was the case in the G-7 and APEC this year, it would be another setback for the U.S.,” he added. “The Argentine hosts deserve better."

Trump signs trade deal with Mexico and Canada, BBC News,

12.1, 2018

US President Donald Trump and leaders from Canada and Mexico have signed the successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta).

The revised deal has been renamed as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA.

Renegotiating Nafta was a key pledge of Mr Trump's 2016 White House campaign. The US President claimed the update "changes the trade landscape forever".

USMCA will govern more than $1tn worth of trade between the countries.

Shortly after the signing, Mr Trump tweeted: "The terrible NAFTA will soon be gone. The USMCA will be fantastic for all!"

The deal comes after more than a year of negotiations between the countries, with agreement on new car and dairy industry regulations proving particularly challenging.

Throughout the start of his presidency, President Trump had repeatedly threatened to withdraw the US from Nafta, unless he could secure a better deal.

However, after a deal was agreed in principle on 30 September, Mexican President Pena Nieto hailed it as a "win-win-win."

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was less enthusiastic about the new regional trade pact on Friday, but said the USMCA would resolve the threat of "serious economic uncertainty" that "would have gotten more damaging".

AdChoices

ADVERTISEMENT

In May this year, President Trump slapped increased tariffs on Canadian and Mexican steel and aluminium coming into the US.

Mr Trudeau told Trump at the signing that the two leaders should work together to reduce those tariffs.

Politicians from each country will still need to ratify the USMCA before it can take effect.

The head of the World Trade Organization, Roberto Azevedo, has said the post-war multilateral trading system is facing its worst crisis.

He sounded the alarm in a BBC interview, where he did not name names, but it's pretty clear that President Trump's combative approach to trade policy is at the centre of his concerns.

The signing of the deal to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement - even though it still needs to be ratified by all three countries legislators - does perhaps tick off one item on the list that Mr Azevedo is worrying about.

But there are plenty more. The big one must be the continuing tensions between the US and China. The two countries have already imposed new tariffs on one another's goods and the US plans to raise them further in the New Year.

Perhaps President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will defuse the situation when they meet at the G20 summit this weekend. But expectations are not very high.

While most analysts expect the deal to win easy approval in Canada and Mexico, it has received a lukewarm response in the US.

Democrats say the new pact does not do enough to protect the environment or dissuade companies from locating jobs in lower-cost Mexico.

Meanwhile, many business groups and some free-trade Republicans still want to see the White House lift the steel and aluminium tariffs.

Despite the criticism, Mr Trump said he expected Congress to ultimately back the deal.

What are some key provisions?

• The deal requires 75% of auto content to be made in North America to qualify for tariff-free treatment. Roughly 40-45% of the content must be made by workers making at least $16 an hour.
• Canada agreed to lift some rules that hindered US exports of dairy products.
• There are new sections governing digital trade, including a ban on rules that would require firms to store data in specific countries.
• Pharmaceutical companies won longer patent protections for certain kinds of medicines.
• The three countries committed to review the deal every six years, deciding whether to extend its 16-year duration.

[모러바(volt)]

감사합니다.거시경제를 편안하게 읽을수 있어 좋습니다.