Fed says more 'confidence' needed on inflation 금리인하전 인플레이션에 대한 신뢰필요

[김우정]

미국 연준이 예상대로 기준금리를 동결했습니다.
인플레이션이 완화되고있지만 지속적인 안정에 대한 신뢰가 없는 것 같습니다.
파월의장은 두고봐야하지만 3월회의때 금리인하가능성은 없다고 말했습니다.
올해에 75bp 인하에는 변함이 없지만 시기는 유동적입니다.
 
Fed says more 'confidence' needed on inflation front before rate cuts can start
연준, 금리 인하가 시작전에 인플레이션에 대한 더 많은 '신뢰'가 필요

(Reuters) 로이터
Posted : 2024-02-01 07:01 Updated : 2024-02-01 07:18
Korea Times

 

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the Federal Reserve, Jan. 31, in Washington. AP-Yonhap 제롬 파월 연준 의장이 1월 31일 워싱턴 연방준비제도이사회에서 연방준비제도의 통화정책에 대한 기자회견에서 연설하고 있다. AP-연합

 The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but took a major step towards lowering them in coming months in a policy statement that tempered inflation concerns with other risks to the economy and dropped a longstanding reference to possible further hikes in borrowing costs.
연방준비제도이사회는 수요일에 금리를 동결했지만 경제에 대한 다른 위험과 함께 인플레이션 우려를 완화하고 차입 비용의 추가인상 가능성에 대한 오랜 언급을 철회하는 정책 성명을 통해 향후 몇 달 동안 금리를 낮추기 위한 중대한 조치를 취했다.
 
The U.S. central bank's latest policy statement gave no hint that a rate cut was imminent, and indeed said the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee "does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent," the Fed's inflation target.
미 중앙은행의 최근 정책 성명은 금리인하가 임박했다는 암시를 주지 않았으며, 실제로 정책 결정 기관인 연방공개시장위원회가 "인플레이션이 2%를 향해 지속 가능하게 움직이고 있다는 더 큰 확신을 얻을 때까지 목표범위를 줄이는 것이 적절하지 않을 것으로 예상한다,"고 말했다.

"Inflation has eased over the past year, but remains elevated," the Fed said in the statement after a two-day meeting, restating that officials "remain highly attentive to inflation risks."
연준은 이틀간의 회의를 마친 뒤 성명에서 "인플레이션은 지난 1년간 완화됐지만 여전히 상승했다,"며 관리들이 "인플레이션 위험에 높은 주의를 유지하고 있다."고 밝혔다.

Speaking after the FOMC meeting in a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that the Fed's struggle to lower inflation is not over, noting "we are not declaring victory, we think we still have a way to go."
제롬 파월 연준 의장은 이날 FOMC 회의 후 기자회견에서 인플레이션을 낮추기 위한 연준의 투쟁이 끝나지 않았다고 경고하면서 "우리는 승리를 선언하는 것이 아니라 우리가 아직 가야 할 길이 있다고 생각한다."고 언급했다.

Powell later said he did not think officials would have that confidence in time to lower rates at the Fed's next meeting in March.
파월 의장은 이후 3월 연준의 다음 회의에서 당국자들이 금리를 내릴 때 그 신뢰를 가질 것으로 생각하지 않는다고 말했다.

"I don’t think it’s likely the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting” to lower rates, “but that’s to be seen," Powell said, adding that a March cut is not the base case for policymakers.
파월 의장은 "위원회가 금리를 낮추기 위해 3월 회의 때까지 신뢰 수준에 도달할 가능성은 없다고 생각한다,"며 "그러나 그것은 두고 봐야 한다,"고 말했다.

The Fed's interest rate target is "likely at its peak for this tightening cycle" and the Fed will likely cut rates “at some point this year," Powell said, while adding it will still take time to see if the data supports an easing in monetary policy.
파월 의장은 연준의 금리 목표가 "이번 긴축주기의 정점에 도달할 가능성이 높다,"며 연준이 "올해 어느 시점에" 금리를 인하할 가능성이 있다고 말했고, 이 자료가 통화정책 완화를 뒷받침하는지는 여전히 시간이 걸릴 것이라고 덧붙였다.

The FOMC statement language and Powell's comments were a blow to investors who have been expecting rate cuts to start as early as March. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate has been in the 5.25 percent-5.50 percent range since last July.
FOMC 성명서 언어와 파월 의장의 발언은 빠르면 3월부터 금리 인하가 시작될 것으로 기대해온 투자자들에게 타격이 됐다. 연준의 하룻밤 기준금리는 지난 7월 이후 5.25%에서 5.50%를 유지하고 있다.

U.S. stocks fell while the dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields also dropped.
달러가 통화 바스켓 대비 상승한 가운데 미국 증시는 하락했다. 미국 재무부 수익률도 하락했다.

"It is clear that the Fed are in no hurry to ease as rapidly as the market prices, with further promising inflation data still required in order to unlock the first rate reduction," said Michael Brown, a market analyst at Pepperstone.
페퍼스톤의 시장 분석가 마이클 브라운은 "연준이 첫 번째 금리 인하를 풀기 위해 추가적인 유망한 인플레이션 데이터가 여전히 필요한 상황에서 시장 가격만큼 빠르게 완화하기 위해 서두르지 않는 것은 분명하다,"라고 말했다.

But the Fed also nodded to concerns about the employment side of its mission, and opened the door to lowering the policy rate if inflation, as expected, continues drifting lower in coming months.
그러나 연준은 또한 임무의 고용 측면에 대한 우려에 고개를 끄덕였고, 예상대로 인플레이션이 앞으로 몇 달 동안 계속 더 낮게 표류할 경우 정책 금리를 낮출 수 있는 문을 열었다.

The risks to meeting both the employment and inflation goals "are moving into better balance," the central bank said, ending roughly two years in which its bias has been to moving rates higher and the risks seen as tilted towards those posed by escalating prices.
중앙은행은 고용과 인플레이션 목표를 모두 달성하기 위한 위험이 "더 나은 균형으로 이동하고 있다"고 말했으며, 약 2년 동안의 편향은 금리 인상과 물가 상승으로 인해 발생하는 위험으로 기울어진 것으로 간주되었다.

"In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," the FOMC said, referring to the central bank's policy rate.
FOMC는 중앙은행의 정책금리를 언급하며 "연방기금금리 목표 범위에 대한 조정을 고려할 때 위원회는 들어오는 데이터, 진화하는 전망, 위험 균형 등을 신중하게 평가할 것,"이라고 말했다.

The Fed's prior statement, issued on Dec. 13, had laid out the conditions under which it would consider "any additional policy firming," language that excluded any consideration of rate cuts.
12월 13일에 발표된 연준의 이전 성명은 금리 인하에 대한 어떠한 고려도 배제한 언어인 "모든 추가정책 확정"을 고려할 조건을 제시했다.

screens on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange show the news conference of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Jan. 31. AP-Yonhap 1월 31일 뉴욕 증권거래소의 스크린들은 제롬 파월 연준의장의 기자회견을 보여준다. AP-연합

The Fed's statement made no reference to the health of the banking system for the first time since it was forced to shore it up last year after a string of regional bank failures. It also removed a reference to tighter financial and credit conditions as likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.
미 연준의 성명은, 작년에 일련의 지방은행들의 파산으로 인해 은행시스템의 건전성을 떠받들 수 밖에 없었던 이후 처음으로, 은행시스템의 건전성에 대해 언급하지는 않았다. 게다가 연준은, 경제활동과 고용, 그리고 인플레이션에 부담을 줄 가능성이 있는, 보다 엄격한 금융 및 신용상태에 대한 언급도 제거했다.

While the statement stopped short of steering investors and the public towards the timing and pace of coming rate cuts, it did mark the current policy rate as the peak of an aggressive monetary tightening cycle that began in March of 2022 when price pressures were ramping up. Inflation peaked at a 40-year high several months later.
성명서는 투자자와 대중을 다가오는 금리 인하 시기와 속도로 유도하는 데는 실패했지만, 현재 정책 금리는 물가 압력이 증가하던 2022년 3월에 시작된 공격적인 통화 긴축 사이클의 정점으로 기록되었다. 인플레이션은 몇 달 후 40년 만에 최고치를 기록했다.

Inflation has now been running below the Fed's target on a seven-month basis while U.S. economic growth and the job market have remained largely intact.
미국의 경제성장률과 고용시장은 대체로 온전한 반면 인플레이션은 7개월 만에 연준의 목표치를 밑돌고 있다.

Economic activity "has been expanding at a solid pace," the Fed said on Wednesday. Job gains "remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low."
미 연준은 수요일 경제활동이 "견조한 속도로 확대되고 있다,"고 발표했다. 일자리 증가는 "강세를 유지하고 있고, 실업률은 낮은 상태를 유지하고 있다."고 말했다.

Fed officials did not issue new economic projections at their meeting this week. As of the Dec. 12-13 meeting, policymakers envisioned cutting the policy rate by 75 basis points over the course of this year, but they have been reluctant to commit to a start date until there is more data showing inflation has continued its downward trajectory. (Reuters)
연준 관리들은 이번 주 회의에서 새로운 경제 전망치를 발표하지 않았다. 12월 12일부터 13일까지 회의에서 정책 입안자들은 올해 정책 금리를 75bp 인하할 것을 구상했지만, 인플레이션이 하향 궤도를 이어갔다는 데이터가 더 나올 때까지 시작 날짜를 약속하는 것을 꺼렸다. (로이터)

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