BOK likely to keep rate unchanged to avoid 'last mile' risk 한은, 금리 동결가능성 높음

[김우정]

한국은행은 2월22일에 열릴예정인 금융통화위원회에서 금리를 동결할 것으로 보입니다.
섣부른 금융완화가 인플레이션을 자극할 수 있는 이른바 '라스트 마일' 리스크를 염두에 둔것입니다.  
1973년 미국, 1974년 프랑스, 1973년 그리스와 같이 성급한 금융완화로 인한 실패를 하지않기 위함입니다.
이창용 한은총재는 금통위가 금리인하를 고려하기위해서 최소한 6개월이 필요하다고 말했습니다.
 
BOK likely to keep rate unchanged to avoid 'last mile' risk
한은은 '마지막' 위험을 피하기 위해 금리를 동결할 가능성이 높음

By Lee Kyung-min 이경민 기자
Posted : 2024-02-01 16:53 Updated : 2024-02-01 22:48
Korea Times

Central bank prioritizes taming inflation
중앙은행은 인플레이션 완화가 우선

The Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to keep the base interest rate unchanged this month, mindful of the so-called “last mile” risk, whereby premature monetary easing could disrupt the stable progression toward price stabilization, market watchers said, Thursday.
한국은행이 이번 달 기준금리를 동결할 것으로 예상되는 것은 섣부른 금융완화가 물가안정을 위한 안정적인 진행을 방해할 수 있는 이른바 '라스트 마일' 리스크를 염두에 둔 것이라고 시장 관측통들이 목요일 밝혔다.

This view is gaining ground as U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday (local time) ruled out a rate cut in March, citing the need for “greater confidence” in inflation moderating to 2 percent. The Fed, however, has put an end to the monetary tightening cycle, as indicated by the removal of “additional policy firming” mentions from the Fed minutes. It left the federal funds rates unchanged at between 5.25 and 5.5 percent.
제롬 파월 미국 연준 의장이 13일(현지 시간) 물가상승률을 2%대로 낮추는 데 '더 큰 신뢰'가 필요하다는 이유로 3월 금리 인하를 배제하면서 이런 전망이 힘을 얻고 있다. 하지만 연준은 연준의사록에서 언급한 '추가정책 확정'을 삭제한 것에서 보듯 통화긴축 사이클에 종지부를 찍었다. 이에 따라 연방기금 금리는 5.25~5.5%로 변동이 없었다.

Similarly, indications of hasty easing from the central bank could jeopardize months of efforts toward stabilizing inflation. This is a much-dreaded yet highly probable scenario, as evidenced by cases of the U.S. in 1973, France in 1974, Greece in 1973 and Denmark in 1973, the BOK said. The countries failed to stabilize inflation during the final stage of the rate cycle due to premature monetary easing driven by base effects. 
마찬가지로 중앙은행의 성급한 완화 조짐은 수개월간 물가 안정을 위한 노력을 위태롭게 할 수 있다. 1973년 미국, 1974년 프랑스, 1973년 그리스, 1973년 덴마크의 사례에서 보듯이 이는 널리 읽혔지만 가능성이 높은 시나리오이다. 이들 국가는 금리 주기의 마지막 단계에서 기저효과에 의한 섣부른 금융완화로 인플레를 안정시키는데 실패했다.

Experts say Korea will not be able to cut rates before the U.S., due to heightened risks of foreign capital outflow, extremely sensitive to a record-wide interest rate gap between the two countries. Korea's key interest rate is 3.5 percent.
전문가들은 한국이 미국보다 먼저 금리를 내리기는 어려울 것이라고 하는데, 이는 외국인 자본유출 위험이 높아지기 때문이며, 이는 사상 최대의 금리 차이에 극도로 민감하기 때문이다. 한국의 기준 금리는 3.5%이다.

“Korea will stand pat this month,” Hyundai Research Institute senior researcher Ju Won said. The earliest rate cut will come in the latter half of this year, when weakening private consumption will weigh heavily on inflation, Ju said. Only then will the central bank seek adjustments in policy to respond, the researcher added.
주원 현대경제연구소 선임연구원은 "한국은 이번 달에 견디어 낼 것"이라고 말했다. 가장 빠른 금리인하는 민간소비 약화가 인플레이션에 큰 부담이 될 올 하반기에 있을 것이라고 주 연구원은 말했다. 그래야 중앙은행이 대응하기 위한 정책 조정을 모색할 것이라고 연구원은 덧붙였다.

“The Fed is not likely to cut rates before May at the earliest. By then, the local consumption will have dampened enough to prime the central bank’s policy easing,” he said. 
그는 "연준이 빠르면 5월 이전에 금리를 인하하지 않을 것 같다. 그때쯤이면 국내소비는 중앙은행의 정책 완화를 자극할 만큼 위축될 것,"이라고 말했다.

Similarly, Kim Wan-joong, chief economist at Hana Institute of Finance, said the Korean economy will slow down, bogged down by lingering concerns of project financing and a consequent slump in construction investments and a real estate market slowdown. 
마찬가지로 하나금융연구소의 김완중 수석 이코노미스트는 한국경제가 프로젝트 파이낸싱과 그에 따른 건설 투자의 침체 그리고 부동산 시장의 침체로 인해 수렁에 빠져들 것이라고 말했다.

“The central bank can consider providing liquidity to the market to reinvigorate the property sectors, a measure that can also bolster consumption. The timeline of a rate cut will be determined by the extent of the risk exposure to the builders and by extension the economy.” 
"중앙은행은 부동산산업을 활성화하기 위해 시장에 유동성을 공급하는 것을 고려할 수 있다. 금리인하 시기는 건설업체의 리스크 노출 정도와 경기 확장 정도에 따라 결정될 것이다."

In a forum hosted by a business lobby, Thursday, BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong cited the need for a tightening stance for a sufficiently long time to bring inflation down. On Jan. 11, he indicated that the central bank would maintain the restrictive monetary policy, adding at least six months would be needed before the bank’s monetary policy board can consider a rate cut. The comments sought to temper market expectations of swift rate cuts of up to 75 basis points this year.
목요일 기업 로비 주최로 열린 포럼에서 이창용 한국은행총재는 인플레이션을 낮추기 위해 충분히 오랜 기간 동안 긴축정책의 필요성을 언급했다. 1월 11일 그는 중앙은행이 제한적인 통화정책을 유지할 것이며, 금융통화위원회가 금리인하를 고려하기까지는 적어도 6개월이 필요할 것이라고 덧붙였다. 이 발언은 올해 최대 75 베이시스 포인트의 신속한 금리인하에 대한 시장의 기대를 누그러뜨리기 위한 것이었다.

However, Korea is preparing for an easing cycle, as inferred from the central bank’s Jan. 11 monetary meeting minutes where the mention of an “additional need for tightening” was removed. 
그러나, 한국은 "추가적인 긴축 필요성"이라는 언급이 제거된 1월 11일 중앙은행의 회의록에서 유추할 수 있듯이, 완화 주기를 준비하고 있다.

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok said early Thursday that uncertainties remain high over the timing and scope of rate cuts in major economies.
최상목 부총리 겸 기획재정부 장관은 목요일 새벽 주요국의 금리인하 시기와 범위에 대한 불확실성이 여전히 높다고 말했다.

“The expectations of an early monetary easing around the globe have been scaled back,” he said during a meeting of financial authorities. “The government will strengthen monitoring of volatility in the financial market.”
그는 금융당국 회의에서 "전 세계적으로 조기 금융완화에 대한 기대가 축소됐다,"며 "정부는 금융시장의 변동성에 대한 모니터링을 강화할 것"이라고 말했다.

The benchmark KOSPI ended at 2,542.46, up 45.37 points, or 1.82 percent from the previous session.
코스피지수는 전장보다 45.37포인트(1.82%) 오른 2,542.46으로 장을 마쳤다.

The won-dollar rate closed at 1,331.8 won per dollar, down 2.8 won from the previous session.
원-달러 환율은 전장보다 2.8원 내린 달러당 1,331.8원에 거래를 마쳤다.

#Baseinterestrate기준금리 #Lastmilerisk라스트마일리스크 #Inflation인플레이션#Monetaryeasing통화완화 #FederalReserve(Fed)미국연방준비제도 #Ratecut금리인하#Foreigncapitaloutflow외국자본유출 #Interestrategap금리차이 #Projectfinancing프로젝트파이낸싱 #Tighteningstance긴축정책