Why rate cuts are to come later this year 금리인하는 왜 올해 늦게 시행하는가

[김우정]

메리츠증권의 선임 이코노미스트인 스티븐리는 미 연준의 금리인하시기를 7월로 예상합니다.
저물가가 지속되는 디스인플레이션속에서도 임금상승율 등 서비스요금의 안정이 필요합니다.
우리나라의 경우도 올해 2/4분기까지는 인플레이션이 2.5%를 상회할것으로 금리인하시기를 7월로 예상합니다.
그의 전망이 맞을지 흥미롭습니다.
 
Why rate cuts are to come later this year
금리인하는 왜 올해 늦게 시행하는가
 
By Stephen Lee 스티븐 리
The writer is the chief economist at Meritz Securities in Seoul.
저자는 서울에 있는 메리츠증권 선임 이코노미스트이다.
Posted : 2024-02-25 09:31 Updated : 2024-02-25 17:10
Korea Times

US Fed most likely to cut policy rate by July
미 연준은 7월에 정책금리를 인하할 가능성이 가장 높다

A greater confidence in a disinflationary trend, specifically driven by services, is necessary for the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin its rate cut cycle. It is anticipated that both the Fed and the Bank of Korea (BOK) will likely commence rate cuts in July.
미 연준이 금리 인하 사이클을 시작하려면 서비스를 중심으로 한 인플레 추세에 대한 신뢰가 더욱 높아져야 한다. 연준과 한국은행 모두 7월부터 금리 인하에 나설 것으로 예상된다.

Stephen Lee, chief economist of Meritz Securities / Courtesy of Meritz Securities 스티븐 리 메리츠종금증권 수석이코노미스트 / 메리츠증권 제공

In October of last year, the 10-year Treasury yield in the U.S. experienced a significant surge, reaching as high as 5 percent. This surge was attributed to uncertainties surrounding monetary policy and apprehensions regarding increased treasury issuances aimed at funding the government deficit. The Fed left its policy rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50 percent in September, but penciled in another rate hike in its dot-plots to address the upside risk of inflation. The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced that it would issue as much as $1.1 trillion in bonds in the third quarter last year, which was a historical high among third-quarter issuances.
작년 10월, 미국의 10년 만기 국채 수익률은 5%에 달하는 큰 폭의 급등을 경험했다. 이러한 급등은 통화 정책을 둘러싼 불확실성과 정부 적자 재원 마련을 위한 국채 발행 증가에 대한 우려 때문이었다. 연준은 9월에 정책 금리를 5.25-5.50%로 동결했지만, 인플레이션의 상승 위험을 해결하기 위해 점도표에서 또 다른 금리인상을 단행했다. 미 재무부는 작년 3분기에 1조 1천억 달러에 달하는 채권을 발행할 것이라고 발표했는데, 이는 3분기 발행 중 역사적으로 높은 수치였다.

Roller-coaster ride of U.S. long-term yields
미국 장기 수익률의 급등락

Those uncertainties and concerns have eased swiftly as both the Fed and the Treasury Department changed their stances. In the following Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in November, Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented that the validity of September rate forecasts decreased.
그런 불확실성과 우려는 연준과 재무부가 모두 입장을 바꾸면서 빠르게 누그러졌다. 이어진 11월 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 회의에서 제롬 파월 연준 의장은 9월 금리 전망치의 유효성이 떨어졌다고 평가했다.

In December, the committee turned even more dovish. Dot-plots for an appropriate policy path indicated that the rate hike cycle finally came to an end, and the chair said that rate cut discussions had begun. The Treasury Department came up with a much smaller issuance plan for the fourth quarter of 2023 ($776 billion) and first quarter of 2024 ($760 billion).
12월 들어 위원회는 한층 더 비둘기파적인 태도로 돌아섰다. 적절한 정책 경로에 대한 점도표는 금리 인상 사이클이 마침내 끝났음을 나타내며 위원장은 금리 인하 논의가 시작되었다고 말했다. 재무부는 2023년 4분기(7,760억 달러)와 2024년 1분기(7,600억 달러)에 대해 훨씬 더 작은 규모의 발행 계획을 내놓았다.

As those forces prompting a surge in yields reversed, market yields experienced a significant and dramatic decline. The 10-year U.S. treasury yield fell below 4 percent by the end of 2023, pricing in a rate cut as early as March 2024. Now, such expectations have once again reversed to some degree.
수익률 급등을 촉발한 요인들이 역전되면서 시장 수익률은 상당하고 극적인 하락을 경험했다. 이르면 2024년 3월 금리 인하를 단행하면서 미국 10년물 국채 수익률은 2023년 말까지 4% 아래로 떨어졌다. 이제 그러한 기대는 다시 어느 정도 역전됐다.

Federal Reserve opts to cut later than sooner
연방준비제도이사회는 조만간 금리인하

Despite such a roller-coaster ride in yields and Fed policy expectations during recent months, our brokerage, since last October, has been maintaining a view that the Fed is most likely to cut its policy rate by July this year.
최근 몇 달간 수익률이 급등하고 연준의 정책 기대감이 높아졌음에도 불구하고 지난 10월부터 우리 증권사는 연준이 올해 7월까지 정책금리를 인하할 가능성이 가장 높다는 견해를 유지하고 있다.

We do agree that there has been a lot of progress in terms of disinflation. The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation rate stood at 2.9 percent as of December last year, after peaking out at 5.5 percent in September 2022. Core consumer price index (CPI) growth is below 4 percent in January, and excluding shelter from the core, the number stands at a mere 2.2 percent, very close to the Fed’s inflation target.
우리는 소독 측면에서 많은 진전이 있었다는 것에 동의한다. 근원 개인소비지출(PCE) 물가상승률은 2022년 9월 5.5%로 정점을 찍은 후 작년 12월 현재 2.9%를 기록하고 있다. 1월 근원 소비자물가지수(CPI) 상승률은 4%를 밑돌고 있고, 근원 소비자물가지수(CPI) 상승률을 제외하면 불과 2.2%로 연준의 인플레이션 목표치에 매우 근접한 수준이다.
That said, whether such a trend can be sustainable raises some questions. Currently, disinflation in the U.S. is driven mainly by goods and partly by housing. Global supply chain pressures have eased significantly over the past quarters, as well as observed rent price growth already subsiding. The latter will affect relevant components in CPI and PCE price growth to slow ahead.
그럼에도 불구하고 그러한 추세가 지속 가능할 수 있는지에 대해서는 몇 가지 의문을 제기한다. 현재 미국의 디스인플레이션은 주로 상품에 의해, 그리고 부분적으로는 주택에 의해 주도되고 있다. 지난 분기 동안 글로벌 공급망 압력이 상당히 완화되었을 뿐만 아니라, 임대료 상승률이 이미 가라앉고 있음을 관찰할 수 있다. 후자는 CPI와 PCE 가격 상승률의 관련 부분에 영향을 미쳐 둔화될 것이다.

To make this disinflation more sustainable, non-housing services inflation should slow further and play a key role in sustaining the trend. Unlike other components, inflation for non-housing services is affected by wage growth. This is because most of the services that we consume are labor-intensive. Food services and private care services can be good examples. This means that higher labor cost burdens can easily translate into rising service fees, as service providers will be trying to pass on the cost burdens to consumers.
이러한 디스인플레이션을 보다 지속가능하게 만들기 위해서는 비주택서비스 인플레이션이 더욱 둔화되어야 하며, 추세를 유지하는 데 핵심적인 역할을 해야 한다. 다른 구성요소들과 달리 비주택서비스 인플레이션은 임금 상승에 영향을 받는다. 우리가 소비하는 대부분의 서비스가 노동집약적이기 때문이다. 음식서비스와 민간돌봄서비스가 좋은 예가 될 수 있다. 이는 서비스 공급자들이 비용부담을 소비자에게 전가하려고 할 것이기 때문에 인건비 부담이 높아지면 쉽게 서비스 요금 상승으로 전환될 수 있음을 의미한다.

Wage growth is still elevated in the U.S. Average hourly earnings have risen 4.5 percent over the year until January, and Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker — an index based on a panel survey — stood at 5 percent. We can compare this with 3.4 percent — a sum of inflation target (2 percent) and annual average productivity growth from 2000-2019 (1.4 percent).
미국의 임금 상승률은 여전히 높은 편이다. 1월까지 시간당 평균 소득은 1년 동안 4.5% 상승했고, 패널 조사에 기초한 지표인 애틀랜타 연준의 임금 상승률 추적기(Wage Growth Tracker)는 5%를 기록했다. 우리는 이를 인플레이션 목표치(2%)와 2000-2019년 연평균 생산성 증가율(1.4%)을 합한 3.4%와 비교할 수 있다.

We would have to see both indicators trend down further, but it seems unlikely in the coming months. This is because two different forces are currently affecting wage growth. The quits rate — portion of people voluntarily quitting their jobs among the total employment number — has fallen to 2.2 percent in December 2023 from an April 2022 peak of 3 percent, indicating that wage rise opportunities are shrinking for job switchers. Such a move is positive for lower inflation ahead.
우리는 두 지표 모두 더 하락하는 것을 봐야겠지만, 앞으로 몇 달 동안 그럴 것 같지는 않다. 왜냐하면, 현재 임금 상승에 영향을 미치는 두 가지 다른 요인이 작용하고 있기 때문이다. 전체 취업자 수 중 자발적으로 직장을 그만두는 사람들의 비율인 퇴사율은 2022년 4월 최고치인 3%에서 2023년 12월 2.2%로 떨어졌으며, 이는 이직자들에게 임금상승 기회가 줄어들고 있음을 보여준다. 이러한 움직임은 앞으로 있을 인플레이션 하락에 긍정적이다.

But on the other hand, those running individual businesses have plans to increase employee wages in the coming months. This provides an upside for wage growth particularly for job stayers. Overall, total wage growth is unlikely to slow in the near term.
그러나 다른 한편으로 개인 사업체를 운영하는 사람들은 수개월 내에 종업원 임금을 인상할 계획을 가지고 있다. 이것은 특히 직장을 유지하는 사람들에게 임금 상승의 이점을 제공한다. 전반적으로, 총 임금상승은 가까운 미래에 둔화될 것 같지 않다.

Furthermore, within the non-housing services, components known as “sticky inflation” are rising again. Auto repair and insurance fees are rising by more than 1 percent per month in recent months. Medical insurance and hospital fees are rising as well. The former is due to more car accidents, automation of vehicles and longer ownership of vehicles. The latter is due to an increased usage of medical services by older people. Such inflation seems to be somewhat structural and unlikely to be controlled by higher rates. If all of these components are combined, it accounts for 6 percent of the total CPI basket.
게다가, 비주택 서비스 내에서, "끈적거리는 인플레이션"이라고 알려진 요소들이 다시 상승하고 있다. 자동차 수리비와 보험료가 최근 몇 달 동안 매달 1% 이상씩 오르고 있다. 의료 보험료와 병원비도 오르고 있다. 전자는 더 많은 자동차 사고, 차량의 자동화, 그리고 차량 소유의 장기화 때문이다. 후자는 노인들의 의료 서비스 이용 증가 때문이다. 그러한 인플레이션은 다소 구조적이고 더 높은 요금에 의해 통제될 것 같지 않다. 이 모든 요소들을 합하면, 그것은 전체 CPI 바스켓의 6%를 차지한다.

Just like the Fed mentioned in its January 2024 FOMC meeting, we would need a greater confidence of disinflation becoming a trend, and this time driven from the service sector. Service-driven disinflation would have to push core PCE growth at least below 2.5 percent in order for the Fed to initiate its rate cut cycle. We expect this to take place as early as mid-second quarter of this year, and with the Fed backward looking, actual rate cut action is to take place in July.
연준이 2024년 1월 FOMC 회의에서 언급한 것처럼, 우리는 디스인플레이션이 대세가 되고, 이번에는 서비스 부문에서 추동될 수 있다는 더 큰 자신감이 필요할 것이다. 연준이 금리 인하 사이클을 시작하려면, 서비스 중심의 디스인플레이션이 핵심 PCE 성장률을 최소한 2.5% 아래로 밀어내야 할 것이다. 우리는 이르면 올해 2분기 중반에 이런 일이 발생할 것으로 예상하고, 연준이 뒤를 돌아보면, 실제 금리 인하 조치는 7월에 이루어질 것이다.

Case for the BOK
한국은행의 경우

The BOK is also likely to initiate its rate cut cycle in July. Korea is also witnessing wide-ranging disinflation, as most of the factors that created inflation reverse their course. That said, both headline and core inflation are to stay above 2.5 percent until the second quarter of this year, leading to a somewhat cautious stance for the nation’s central bank. In the second half, we would see inflation numbers sustainably coming in below 2.5 percent.
한국은행도 7월에 금리인하 사이클을 시작할 것 같다. 한국도 광범위한 인플레 현상을 겪고 있는데 인플레를 만든 요인들이 대부분 방향을 바꾸면서 인플레를 만들고 있다. 그건 그렇고 인플레와 근원 인플레 모두 금년 2/4분기까지 2.5%를 상회할 것이기 때문에 한국 중앙은행으로서는 다소 조심스러운 입장이다. 하반기에도 인플레는 지속적으로 2.5%를 하회할 것이다.

In addition, the central bank will confront increasing needs to address growth for domestic demand, as construction investment continues to provide a downside for the nation’s economy. External monetary policy conditions — i.e. the Fed’s cut — will also provide maneuvers for the BOK.
게다가 중앙은행은 건설투자가 계속해서 우리 경제에 하강을 제공하고 있기 때문에 내수를 위한 성장을 해결해야 할 필요성이 점점 더 커질 것에 직면할 것이다. 외부 통화정책 여건 즉 미연준의 인하도 한은에 기동력을 제공할 것이다.

#Ratecuts금리인하 #Disinflationarytrend디스인플레이션추세 #Treasuryyield국채수익률 #Federal Reserve연방준비제도이사회 #Policyrate정책금리 #Wagegrowth임금상승률 #Coreinflation핵심인플레이션 #Servicesector서비스부문 #Centralbank 중앙은행 #Constructioninvestment건설투자