(Dec 16, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

[kyonmanchung]

(Dec 16, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

안녕하세요?

 Economist들의 내년도 세계경제 전망이 더욱더 부정적인 방향으로 흘러 가는 주요인은 무역전쟁 악화와 이로 인한 불확실성의 확대임. 이런 가운데 지난 주말 중국이 미흡하나마 무역전쟁 완화를 위한 약간의 제스처를 보였습니다. Global economy를 위해 reciprocal trade policy가 소생하기를 기원합니다.   

1. China Seeks to Defuse Trade War With Reversals on Cars, Corn

- Trump대통령과 Xi주석간의 무역전쟁 90일간 휴전 합의 이래, 처음으로 중국이 대미 무역전쟁 완화 제스처를 보였습니다.

중국 재무장관은 지난 금요일, 내년 1월1일부터 미국산 자동차에 대한 25% 보복관세를 부과 않기로 하는 한편, 미국 산 옥수수를 최소 3백만 tons수입 재개하겠다고 발표..

미국 백악관도 같은 날, 중국산 수입품 $200bn에 대한 추가 관세를 당초 1월1일부터 부과하려던 것을3월2일부터 부과하는 것으로 공식 연기.

중국의 미산 자동차에 대한 관세 인하(40% ->15%) 조치는 지난 6개월간 중국내 자동차 판매가 감소하는 등 올 연간 자동차판매가 28년만에 첫 감소할 예상에서 나온 것이라 주목. 수입 미국산 차 중에는 BMW등 독일계 차가 미국계 차보다 훨씬 많군요.

아울러 최근 미국산 대두 수입(소량)을 재개하기 시작한 중국(7월부터 브라질 등에서 수입)은 내년 1월부터 옥수수 수입도 재개하게 되는데, 25% 보복관세를 어떻게 처리할 지가 관심.

한편, 중국은 다음주중 2019년 경제 정책 방향을 가늠할 수 있는 ‘중앙경제공작회의’가 열릴 예정(통상 3일간)인데, 무역 전쟁과 경제성장 둔화에 대응하는 경제정책에 focus가 맞춰 질 것으로 보임.

<생각>

중국은 2018년중 조세 인하, 지준율 인하(4번) 등의 경기부양책 실시 -> 내년, 경기부양책 더 강화할 것으로 예상합니다.

우리 경제에서 차지하는 중국 비중이 매우 큰 만큼 중국의 경제정책 방향을 예의 주시하고 잘 대응해야 하겠죠. GDP 6.5%이상 성장 정책 기대.

2. Boeing delivers first 737 from new Chinese factory, CNN Business

- 지난 토요일 미국 Boeing사의 중국 현지공장(Zhoushan, 미국 이외 최초)에서 조립 생산된 737여객기가 ‘Air China”항공사로 첫 출하되었습니다.

Boeing사는 world's largest aviation market.으로 급부상하는 중국시장을 겨냥, 중국 Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC)사와 합작법인을 설립(당시 유럽의 Air Bus사와 치열한 경쟁) -> 2015년부터 공장 착공 ->이번에 첫 출하한 것.

중국의 항공여객 시장은 예상보다 훨씬 빠른 2022년이면 미국을 제치고 세계 최대가 될 전망. 보잉사 추정에 따르면 중국은 향후 20년간 7,680대의 새 항공기($1.2tr 상당)가 필요하게 되며, 여기에 $1.5tr 상업 서비스가 발생할 거라고 하는군요.

<생각>

미국 Boeing사는 대규모 중국시장 접근 및 생산 운송비 측면에서 중국 현지공장이 절실. Trump가 미국 회사들의 해외공장 이전에 대하여 혹평(미국 일자리 감소와 기술이전)하지만, 보잉 입장에서는 거대 중국시장을 향한 유럽 Air Bus와의 치열한 경쟁 상황에서 불가피한 선택. 종국에는 항공기술 이전이라는 측면도 있지만, going concern입장에서는 당장 시장확보라는 현실이 더 중요.

Trump가 이런 global market 현실과 제조업 supply-chain에 관한 이해를 늘려서 국제비교우위에 근거한 reciprocal trade policy를 폈으면 함

(부동산, casino사업만 해서 그런지?)  

3. Riots, Brexit and Budgets: Europe's got a lot to deal with right now, CNBC

- 요즘 Europe이 정치 경제 사회적으로 온통 난리 법석입니다.

영국은 Brexit(EU탈퇴) 추진 방향을 잃고, France는 노란 조끼 반정부 폭동으로 5주째 시달리며, Italy는 EU와의 예산 문제로 티격 태격이고, 이런 상황에서 ECB(European Central Bank)는 오래 시행해 온 QE(돈 풀기)를 중단하였습니다.

•  Brexit chaos

- U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May는 Brexit Deal 승인에 필요한 의회 표결(화요일)을 갑자기 취소(Northern Ireland 문제 등으로 여당 내에서도 다수 반대 예상) ->1월21일 이전에 표결 -> Brexit deadline(3월29일)까지 모든 절차 종결해야 함 (전 수상은 국민투표 다시 해야 한다고)

• Riots in France

- 5주전 파리에서 유류세 인상 반대 protest로 시작 -> 점차 대도시 확산 -> 반 Macron 시위, 시민 저항 riot화

 - 지난 주말 Macron대통령, ‘감세 및 최저임금 인상’하겠다 발표(Reform후퇴) ->

   문제는 예산 10bn Euro 추가 소요 -> 2019년 재정적자/GDP 비율 3%초과 

     -> EU rule 위반 ->여타 EU국에 악영향

•  Italy's ugly budget

     -  - Italy 연정은 당초 재정적자 목표 비율 2.4%에서 2.04%로 인하하겠다고 EU에 수중 제의 -> 문제는 연정이 국민에게 공약한 연금과 기초 소득의 어느 부문에서 감축할 지 결정

         (만약 France도 재정적자 3% rule 위배한다면 Italy 항의 예상)

• European Central Bank wraps up QE

- 지난 화요일 ECB는 sovereign debt crisis에 대응하여 시행해 온 매월 30bn Euro 규모의 ‘Bond-buying program’(현재까지 2.6tr euro 매입)을 이달 말 중지한다고 발표. 단 만기가 도래하는 분은 재투자함.

- 문제는 유럽이 정치경제적으로 취약한 시점(Brexit, 프랑스, 이태리, Merkel 입지 약화 등)에 QE중단이 발표된 것

정견만 드림

1. China Seeks to Defuse Trade War With Reversals on Cars, Corn,

Bloomberg News

‎2018‎년 ‎12월‎ ‎14‎일‎ ‎오후‎ ‎7‎:‎06 Updated on ‎2018‎년 ‎12월‎ ‎15‎일‎ ‎오후‎ ‎1‎:‎58

• Tariff imposed on U.S. imports removed for three months
• Additional 25% duty imposed on U.S. vehicles to be suspended

China took more steps to defuse trade tensions with the U.S., confirm‎ing it will remove the retaliatory duty on automobiles imported from America and preparing to restart purchases of American corn.

The 25 percent tariff imposed on vehicles as a tit-for-tat measure will be scrapped starting Jan. 1, the finance ministry said Friday. China also may buy at least 3 million metric tons of American corn, said people familiar with the discussions, who asked not to be named as the information is confidential.

The moves come two weeks after President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to a truce in the trade war at their meeting in Argentina. Trump claimed he won a concession during talks with Xi and said China, the world’s biggest automobile market, would reduce and remove tariffs, a claim that Beijing didn’t immediately confirm‎.

The White House also officially delayed a rise in tariffs on $200 billion of products that had been due on Jan. 1. The increase will now take effect on March 2, according to a U.S. Trade Representative statement on Friday.

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Despite the latest concessions, there remains doubt in Washington and Beijing over whether China is willing to water down its plans to match and exceed U.S. industrial strength, which are one of the root causes of the current fight.

China’s top leaders are expected to meet next week to decide economic policies for 2019. Their focus will be on how they propose to sustain stable growth when faced with both uncertainty from the trade war and from the slowing domestic economy.

The temporary tax reduction for U.S. car imports comes as China heads for its very first annual vehicle sales decline in 28 years amid the trade war and an economic slowdown that’s undermining consumption momentum.

Car sales in China have fallen for six straight months after decades of almost uninterrupted growth. While there were other factors, the tit-for-tat jabs between the world’s biggest economies have played a role. The move by China would reduce tariffs on cars made in the U.S. to 15 percent from the current 40 percent, in line with what other countries pay.

Corn Imports

The corn imports are likely to start as early as January, following a revival of American soybean purchases, the people said. The government is also considering various options for how to handle the 25 percent retaliatory tariffs on American corn that China adopted in July, the people said.

China’s decision on vehicles may provide a respite for American carmakers such as Tesla Inc.Daimler AG

BMW said on Saturday that it’s cutting recommended retail prices of its U.S.-made vehicles in China to reflect the tariff reduction.

BMW and Daimler have been hardest hit by the additional levies, shipping large numbers of sport utility vehicles from plants in the U.S. to China. Six of the top ten vehicles exported from the U.S. to the world’s biggest car market are from the two German brands, according to forecaster LMC Automotive.

For BMW, the punitive levies caused a hit of 300 million euros ($339 million) to its bottom line during the second half of the year. The trade tensions were a key factor in both carmakers cutting profit forecasts for the year.

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Longer term, China has a lot to gain from free trade in autos as manufacturers such as Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. and Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. look to move overseas. The U.S. currently charges a 27.5 percent tax on imported cars from China after adding a 25 percent additional tariff during the trade row.

2. Boeing delivers first 737 from new Chinese factory, CNN Business

By Jackie Wattles, CNN Business

Updated 2125 GMT (0525 HKT) December 15, 2018

New York (CNN) Boeing on Saturday delivered its first 737 airliner from its new factory in China -- a debut that comes amid a 90-day truce in the US-China trade war.

The 100-acre completion site in in Zhoushan, where workers install interiors to 737s built in Seattle for sale in the Chinese market, is part of the US aerospace company's plan to strengthen ties to what will soon be the world's largest aviation market.

The Chinese plant is the first of its kind for Boeing (BA) outside the United States. It is operated as a joint venture between the company and China's Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC).

The first 737 to roll out of the plant was delivered to Chinese carrier Air China on Saturday.

"This is a significant milestone of Boeing's efforts to deepen its footprint in China, as well as to support the growth of China's airline industry, opening an era of the collaboration," Zhao Yuerang, president of COMAC, said in a statement.

Read More

Critics of Boeing's new facility say it moves work done by US-based workers abroad and gives China valuable insight into jetliner production.

Expanding its presence in China is key for Boeing to stay competitive with European arch-rival Airbus.

China is on track to surpass the United States as the world's largest air travel market by 2022, sooner than expected, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Boeing estimates China will need 7,680 new planes worth $1.2 trillion over the next 20 years, plus $1.5 trillion in commercial services to support the new fleets.

But Boeing, the United States' single largest exporter, found itself on the front lines of a trade war this year as President Donald Trump directed his administration to slap billions of dollars worth of tariffs on Chinese goods to punish the country for what Trump called unfair trade practices.

China responded in kind, and the tit-for-tat escalated for months. Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to a temporary truce earlier this month as officials work to negotiate a broad deal.

"Am I nervous about the situation? Yeah, of course. It's a challenging environment," John Bruns, president of Boeing China, told reporters on Saturday, according to Reuters.

Trump has also slammed US companies for building factories abroad.

Last year, Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg pitched the Chinese completion site, which has been in the works since 2015, as a boon for US manufacturing.

"We're able to add volume and increase sales in China, because as we increase sales to China we increase building airplanes here in the U.S., and that's U.S. manufacturing jobs," he said.

3. Riots, Brexit and Budgets: Europe's got a lot to deal with right now, CNBC

Holly Ellyatt | @HollyEllyatt

2018.12.14 Published 16 Hours Ago

• Brexit chaos
• Riots in France
• Italy's budget
• The European Central Bank wraps up QE
• ... Just some of the things going on in Europe at the moment.

Another day, another political and economic drama in Europe, it would seem.

If the protracted and often tortuous Brexit isn't enough for the continent to deal with, there's riots and civil unrest in France and budget-busting spending plans for Brussels to sort out with Italy. CNBC has a rundown of the flashpoints that have been hitting Europe this week.

Brexit

No mention of the U.K., or European Union, seems possible these days without mentioning the dreaded B-word. And never more so than this week as Brexit, and Britain's political landscape took another unexpected turn.

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May cancelled a key parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal she struck with the EU that was due for Tuesday. That set in motion a wild (as wild as Westminster can get) chain of events culminating in May surviving a vote of confidence called by a significant number of members of parliament (MPs) within her own Conservative Party.

She survived the vote but Brexit is still as unpredictable as ever. May has to convince many within her party, and the opposition, to back her controversial Brexit deal and a parliamentary vote has to be held before January 21 2019. Brandon Lewis, the Conservative Party chairman, told to CNBC on Thursday that this would not be a difficult task for the prime minister.

"Nobody has ever said that this isn't going to be difficult. The reality is that this is a very difficult and complicated issue," he said.

She has asked Europe to make amendments to the deal, most notably to the future status of Northern Ireland, but Europe has so far (publicly at least) refused to budge. All this as the departure date fast approaches on March 29 2019.

Gina Miller, co-founder of SCM Direct and a key instigator of a parliamentary vote, told CNBC Thursday that nothing had really changed since the confidence vote.

"There's a sense of paralysis that we saw before … We are now up against a deadline and the clock is ticking ever louder, the factions want very different things and the compromise is not there," she told CNBC's Willem Marx.

Macron U-turn

Hopping across the channel from the U.K., France has witnessed some dramatic scenes itself in recent weeks with anti-government protests turning to widespread civil disobedience and riots, violence and destruction in Paris and other French cities.

After another weekend of protests and damage in Paris last weekend, President Emmanuel Macron (a focus of anger for the yellow-vested protesters) announced tax cuts and a hike in the minimum wage.

While that may be great for working people in France, the measures are expected to cost around 10 billion euros and are going to bust France's budget in 2019, pushing it over a budget deficit limit of 3 percent set by the European Commission.

Signaling that the EU could be lenient with France (unlike Italy) the EU's Economics Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said Thursday that "European rules don't forbid a one-off and limited overshooting of the 3 percent deficit threshold," Reuters reported.

Economists said France's actions could limit opportunities for further European integration, however.

Julien Manceaux, senior economist at ING, said in a note Wednesday that "as long as President Macron has not shown that France can be reformed, the rest of Europe, especially in the north, will not be ready to support risk sharing or tax transfers among euro zone members," he said in a note.

Italy budget

If the European Commission is about to give France some leeway over its budget you can bet that Italy's coalition government is going to make a lot of noise about it.

This especially after the Commission started a disciplinary procedure against Italy after it said its 2019 spending plans (that include pension reforms and a basic income for the poor) would create a budget deficit higher than initially promised (but still within EU limits).

There are signs of compromise, however, and Italy offered to lower its deficit target to 2.04 percent on Thursday, down from a previous target of 2.4 percent in a bid to avoid a fine from the Commission but has not given details on how it will achieve this.

Jacob Kirkegaard, senior research fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics said "the devil would be in the detail" when it comes to Italy promising to amend its spending plans.

"The key issue is what are they going to cut? … Certainly, the Commission will look very closely at these issues before they agree, or not, to a compromise with Rome," he told CNBC's Capital Connection Thursday.

The ECB

Italy's offer to reduce its deficit target come as the European Central Bank announced an end to its 2.6 trillion euro ($2.9 trillion) bond-buying program on Thursday, a program that helped the euro zone exit its sovereign debt crisis.

The winding up of the central bank's quantitative easing (QE) program, although the bank said it will continue to reinvest cash from maturing bonds for an extended period of time, however, is a historic moment for the euro zone but it comes at a time of political and economic fragility in the euro zone with all the upheavals we're seeing in some of Europe's biggest economies – the U.K., France and Italy (not to mention a weakened Angela Merkel in Germany).

Speaking to CNBC from outside the ECB's headquarters in Frankfurt, Salman Ahmed, chief investment strategist at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, said that "even though the sun is shining on the ECB building, there are some clouds on the euro zone economy," he told CNBC's Annette Weisbach. "It's important that Mr. Draghi acknowledges that … the growth outlook is not looking that great," he said.

ECB ends €2.5tn Eurozone QE stimulus programme, BBC News

• 13 December 2018

The European Central Bank has confirmed it is ending its huge net asset purchase programme to stimulate the eurozone economy this month.

The ECB has stopped its bond-buying scheme, worth €30bn a month, despite a recent slowdown in the bloc's recovery.

The move, first announced in June, is a big step towards unwinding the policies brought in to stabilise the eurozone in the wake of the financial crisis.

The ECB said it was keeping its main interest rate on hold at zero per cent.

It has so far pumped more than two trillion euros into the bloc's economy, while maintaining ultra-low interest rates.

The bank argues this has countered deflation and staved off a deeper economic crisis, but it has long signalled it would gradually wind the programme down.

The ECB began its asset purchase programme in 2015, years after the UK and US took similar action to shore up their economies.

Analysis

Dharshini David, economics correspondent

It's official: the ECB has confirmed it will cease its crisis bail-out programme, quantitative easing. It was last of the major central banks to embark on the scheme of pumping funds into the economy via bonds in 2009.

Since then it has injected more than €2tn, intended to be used by financial institutions to boost credit, and so demand across the economy.

Before the financial crisis, QE had been largely untried. Its potential impact was unknown - and is still unclear. In the UK, the Bank of England estimates that funds played a very significant role in boosting activity.

However, there is evidence that a large part of the funds were concentrated in the assets held by the wealthiest - from property to shares - boosting their value.

QE was a controversial project, not least with European politicians. And it is for political, rather than economic, reasons that it's been ceased: growth across the eurozone is lukewarm.

The ECB isn't removing its support altogether; it will reinvest existing QE money once bonds mature.

But economists question if the ECB may soon have to take further action to stimulate growth and, with interest rates at rock bottom, what shape that will take.

[도드람]

언제나 좋은 소식이 오려나 ???미얀마도 안 좋고 한국도 안좋고

[모러바(volt)]

미,중이어 유럽까지.나라빗만 늘어나는 우리나라가 걱정입니다.