러시아가 아우디우카에서 처음으로 국지적 항공우세를 확보

[위종민]

아우디우카가 함락되기 며칠 전부터 러시아가 아우디우카 근방의 공역에서 제한적이고 국지적인 항공우세를 확보했다고 합니다.

2월 17일엔 러시아가 60발의 KAB 활공폭탄을 발사했고, 최근 며칠 동안 투발된 활공폭탄의 양이 500발에 달한다고 하네요. 활공폭탄을 효과적으로 사용한 것이 우크라이나 방어선을 돌파한 주된 요인이라고 합니다. 

또한 2월 14일 아우디우카에서 서부 자포리자주까지 73회 공습을 가해 전례없는 수준의 공습을 기록했다고 합니다. 

효과적인 방공 시스템이 모자라고 미사일도 고갈돼 가며 후방에 지속적으로 미사일 및 드론 공습을 가함에 따라 우크라이나가 방공우산을 씌워 줄 최전선 지역을 결정해야 하는 상황에 처했다고 평가하네요. 

https://www.airforce-technology.com/news/isw-russia-show-signs-of-localised-air-superiority-in-ukraine-for-first-time/?cf-view

ISW: Russia show signs of localised air superiority in Ukraine for first time 

The ISW reports that on 17 February 2024, Russian forces launched 60 KAB glide bombs at Ukrainain positions in Avdiivka in one day.

Andrew Salerno-Garthwaite February 19, 2024

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Russian Sukhoi Su-30SM aircraft in flight. Credit: Alex Beltyukov/commons.wikimedia.org.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said that Russia has “temporarily established limited and localised air superiority” during the final days of its activity in Avdiivka before the Ukrainian withdrawal.

This would likely be the first time this has happened in the war in Ukraine, a conflict marked by Mutual Air Denial, where nether side’s air forces have been able to operate outside of territory supported by ground troops.

The success of relatively inexpensive and abundant Ukrainian surface-to-air Stinger missiles and other ground air-defences has up to this date been credited with preventing Russia from fully utilising its air assets for conducting long-distance strikes. So far, they have been confined to operating in a close air support role, remaining within territory where Russia ground forces can interdict potential threats to the high cost aerial assets. 

The ISW reports that on 17 February 2024, Russian forces launched 60 KAB glide bombs at Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka in one day, citing a spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operation near the location, and added that a Ukrainian soldier in the area stated Russian forces had launched up to 500 glide bombs in recent days. 

The effective deployment of glide bombs by Russia is broadly acknowledged by Russian sources as a key factor in breaching Ukrainian defences in Avdiivka. Furthermore, some Russian military bloggers have claimed that Russia has achieved air superiority in the region.

See Also:

• Environmental damage rampant across Ukraine and Gaza – CEOBS 
  

Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces, reported that on February 14, Russian military carried out 73 airstrikes along the Tavriisk front, from Avdiivka to western Zaporizhia Oblast, marking an unprecedented level of aerial attacks. This surge in activity is part of an intensified tactical manoeuvre in Avdiivka by Russian forces. 

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The ISW added that the scarcity of effective air defence systems, depleting stocks of air defence missiles, and ongoing Russian missile and drone attacks on civilian areas in the rear are likely to be compelling Ukraine to decide which frontline areas to protect with air defence. 

The US research centre, well-regraded for its ongoing daily account of the Ukrainian war through openly sourced information, went on to say that periodic instances of temporary, localised, and limited air superiority by Russia could enable aggressive Russian progress along the frontline, and that a more widespread and sustained air superiority would enable them to carry out regular, large-scale aerial operations and heavily bomb Ukrainian cities behind the frontline, causing severe destruction.

[Minowski(김유철)]

방공자산도 지금 크림반도와 수도일대에 집중되어 있는 것 같고 결국 F16+암람 조합이 의미있는 수량이 확보되지 않으면 동부전선에서의 공역접근거부는 당분간 힘들겠지요. 나발리의 죽음으로 블루팀이 다시 단결한다고해도 SAM이 어디서 갑자기 튀어나오는 것도 아닐거고.......

[위종민]

아우디우카 상실이 대규모 전선붕괴로 이어지지는 않는 것 같긴 한데 현 전선 기반으로 휴전하기엔 전선 모양이 영 마땅치가 않네요. 그렇다고 춘계공세를 펼치기엔 탄약이 모자라고. 여러모로 지난 여름 대비 상황이 많이 안 좋네요

[백선호]

끽해야 50 kg의 152/155 mm 포탄으로 두들기는 것보다 500~1,000 kg의 폭탄으로 때리는 것이 역시 방어선 뚫는데 더 효과적인 듯 하네요.

[위종민]

방어라면 몰라도 돌파구를 열려면 역시 공습을 해야... ㅎㅎ