Ruling party holds slim lead over main opposition 여당, 제1야당에 근소한 우위

[김우정]

4월10일 국회의원선거에 대한 여론조사에서 여당이 33%, 야당30%로 조사되었습니다.
3%는 오차범위내에 있고 결정을 하지 못한 부동층이 25%나 되어 아직은 불투명합니다.
눈에 띠는 것은 비례대표 선호정당으로 조국 전장관이 대표인 조국신당이 15%의 지지를 받은 것입니다.
출산과 승진, 선거결과는 결과를 확인하기전에는 모른다는 말이 있습니다.
 
Ruling party holds slim lead over main opposition ahead of April 10 elections
여당, 4월 10일 선거 앞두고 제1야당에 근소한 우위

By Nam Hyun-woo 남현우 기자
Posted : 2024-03-06 17:00 Updated : 2024-03-06 18:47
Korea Times

Korea Times public opinion poll 코리아 타임즈 여론조사

Ex-minister's new party undermines support for DPK
전 장관 신당, 민주당 지지 훼손

The ruling People Power Party (PPP) held a slight lead over the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) in the race for the April 10 general elections, falling within the margin of error, according to a poll by The Korea Times, Wednesday, even though a substantial number of voters remained undecided.
코리아 타임즈의 수요일 여론조사에 따르면, 4.10 총선을 앞두고 유권자들의 상당수가 부동층임에도 불구하고 여당인 국민의힘이 제1야당인 민주당을 근소한 차이로 앞서고 있다.
 
In addition, the poll revealed that a newly established party, led by former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, is causing a stir in the political landscape, as it was observed to be trailing behind the DPK for proportional representation, eroding the main opposition's support base.
또 조국 전 법무부 장관이 이끄는 신생 정당이 비례대표에서 민주당에 밀리는 것으로 관측돼 제1야당의 지지기반을 잠식하는 등 정치지형에 파란을 일으키고 있는 것으로 여론조사에서 드러났다.

People Power Party interim leader Han Dong-hoon holds a baby during a town hall meeting with working mothers in Cheongju, North Chungcheong Province, Tuesday. Joint Press Corps 한동훈 국민의힘 비상대책위원장이 20일 충북 청주시에서 워킹맘들과 타운홀 미팅을 하고 있는 가운데 아기를 안고 있다. 합동기자단

According to the poll conducted by Hankook Research upon the request of the newspaper from Monday to Tuesday, 33 percent of 1,002 respondents said they would vote for candidates from the PPP in their respective electoral districts during the upcoming elections, while 30 percent expressed their preference for candidates from the DPK.
한국리서치가 본지의 의뢰를 받아 월요일, 화요일 실시한 여론조사에 따르면 응답자 1002명 중 33%가 이번 선거 때 각 선거구에서 국민의 힘후보를 찍겠다고 답했고 30%는 민주당 후보를 선호한다고 답했다.

The 3-percentage-point gap is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, showing that the rival parties are still staging a neck-and-neck race. However, the ruling conservative party is widening the gap amid critical infighting within the liberal main opposition party over candidate selection, as the poll also showed that 56 percent disapproved of the DPK's nomination process.
3% 차이는 오차범위인 플러스 또는 마이너스 3.1% 안에 있어 여전히 박빙의 승부를 펼치고 있음을 보여준다. 그러나 진보성향의 제1야당이 후보자 선정을 놓고 내홍을 벌이는 와중에 여당인 보수정당이 격차를 더 벌리고 있는 것은 민주당 공천에 대해서도 56%가 찬성하지 않는 것으로 조사됐기 때문이다.

However, another 25 percent said they have yet to decide which party's candidates to support in the constituency voting. With 92 percent of all respondents expressing their intention to participate in the general elections, the significant presence of swing voters suggests that their choices could potentially alter the election outcomes.
그러나, 다른 25%는 지역구 투표에서 어느 당의 후보를 지지할지 아직 결정하지 못했다고 말했다. 전체 응답자의 92%가 총선에 참여할 의사를 표명한 가운데, 부동층의 상당한 존재는 그들의 선택이 선거 결과를 잠재적으로 바꿀 수 있음을 시사한다.

Democratic Party of Korea Chairman Lee Jae-myung holds a board criticizing the Yoon Suk Yeol administration during the party's Supreme Council meeting at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, Wednesday. Yonhap 더불어민주당 이재명 대표가 19일 서울 여의도 국회에서 열린 당 최고위원회의에서 윤석열 행정을 비판하는 게시판을 들고 있다. 연합

In Seoul, the DPK led with 34 percent, while the PPP followed with 32 percent. Similarly, in Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, the DPK held a lead with 35 percent, while the PPP trailed behind with 29 percent.
서울에서는 민주당이 34%이고 국민의 힘이 32%인 그 뒤를 이었다. 마찬가지로, 인천과 경기도에서는 민주당이 35%이고 국민의 힘이 29%로 뒤를 쫓고 있다.

Instead, the PPP held a lead in the central regions of Daejeon and Chungcheong provinces, which have long served as barometers in Korea's major elections, with 35 percent. The DPK trailed behind with 30 percent.
대신 주요 선거에서 오랫동안 바로미터 역할을 해온 대전과 충청권에서 국민의 힘이 35%로 선두를 달렸다. 민주당은 30%로 뒤를 이었다.

Both parties were firmly in control of their respective strongholds. The PPP secured 52 percent support in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, as well as 45 percent in Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang Province. Meanwhile, the DPK was prevailing in Gwangju and Jeolla provinces with 48 percent support.
양당은 각자의 텃밭을 굳건히 장악하고 있었다. 국민의힘은 대구와 경북에서 52%, 부산, 울산, 경남에서 45%의 지지를 얻었다. 한편, 민주당은 광주와 호남에서 48%의 지지를 얻어 우세했다.

Other than the rival parties, what was notable was the performance of former minister Cho's party, named the National Innovation Party, which secured a 3 percent support in constituency voting. This was followed by the Reform Party led by former PPP Chairman Lee Jun-seok, with 1 percent, and the Saemirae Party led by former DPK Chairman Lee Nak-yon, also with 1 percent.
여야 외에 주목할 만한 것은 지역구 투표에서 3%의 지지를 확보한 국민혁신당이라는 조 전 장관 당의 성과였다. 이어 이준석 전 국민의힘 대표가 이끄는 개혁신당이 1%, 이낙연 전 민주당 대표가 이끄는 새로운미래당도 1%로 뒤를 이었다.

The National Innovation Party head Cho Kuk, center, poses with newcomers of the party during an welcome event in Dongjak District, Seoul, Wednesday. Courtesy of the National Innovation Party 조국 국민혁신당 대표(가운데)가 19일 서울 동작구에서 열린 환영행사에서 신당 창당 인사들과 포즈를 취하고 있다. 국민혁신당 제공

The ascent of Cho's party was particularly conspicuous in the question regarding preferred parties for proportional representation.
특히 비례대표 선호 정당에 대한 질문에서 조 후보 측의 부상이 두드러졌다.

While 29 percent said they will vote for the PPP and its so-called "satellite party" being created for proportional representation and 21 percent for the DPK and its satellite party, another 15 percent, marking the third largest share, expressed support for the National Innovation Party.
국민의 힘과 위성정당이 비례대표를 위해 창당하는 이른바 '위성정당'에 투표하겠다는 응답이 29%, 민주당과 위성정당에 투표하겠다는 응답이 21%로 3위를 차지한 가운데 또 다른 15%는 국가혁신당에 대한 지지를 표명했다.

This marks one of the highest rates that the National Innovation Party has achieved in polls concerning proportional representation. Considering that the party was officially established earlier this month, its rapid surge is expected to have a significant impact on the entire electoral landscape.
이는 국가혁신당이 그동안 비례대표 관련 여론조사에서 달성한 가장 높은 비율 중 하나다. 이달 초 공식 창당된 점을 고려하면 급격한 급상승은 전체 선거 지형에도 적지 않은 영향을 미칠 것으로 보인다.
 
Among 341 respondents who said they support the DPK, 28 percent picked Cho’s party for proportional representation, and not the DPK’s satellite party, which means the National Innovation Party is effectively eroding the main opposition party’s support base.
민주당을 지지한다는 응답자 341명 중 28%가 민주당 위성정당이 아닌 조 후보 당을 비례대표로 꼽아 국가혁신당이 사실상 제1야당의 지지기반을 잠식하고 있다는 의미다.

However, a notable 26 percent of voters remain undecided regarding which party they will support for proportional representation.
그러나 유권자의 26%는 비례대표를 지지할 정당을 결정하지 못하고 있다.

Cho, who has been embroiled in a lengthy trial over allegations of fabricating academic documents to secure his daughter's medical school admission, is widely seen as an antagonist of then-Prosecutor General Yoon Suk Yeol. Yoon had investigated the allegations against Cho, resisting then-President Moon Jae-in's push to hold off on the probe. While Cho has been crying foul over the investigations, their battle propelled Yoon to political prominence among the conservatives and eventually made him the president.
딸의 의대 입학을 확보하기 위해 학사 서류를 조작한 혐의로 장기간의 재판에 휘말린 조씨는 당시 윤석열 검찰총장의 적대자로 널리 알려져 있다. 윤씨는 당시 문재인 대통령의 수사 보류 추진에 저항하며 조씨에 대한 혐의를 조사했었다. 조씨가 수사에 대해 반칙을 운운하는 동안, 그들의 싸움은 윤씨를 보수주의자들 사이에서 정치적으로 중요하게 만들었고 결국 그를 대통령으로 만들었다.

“The National Innovation Party’s rise is attributable to voters critical of the Yoon administration but disappointed by the DPK,” said Shin Yul, a professor of political science at Myongji University.
신율 명지대 정치외교학과 교수는 "국민혁신당의 부상은 윤 정권에 비판적이지만 민주당에 실망한 유권자들 때문"이라고 분석했다.

“While the DPK is failing to concentrate on its campaigns against the ruling bloc due to internal division, Cho’s party has emerged as an alternative by targeting the prosecution’s growing influence within the Yoon administration.”
“민주당이 내부분열로 범여권 선거운동에 집중하지 못하고 있는 가운데 조 후보 측은 윤정부 내에서 점점 커지는 검찰 영향력을 겨냥해 대안으로 떠올랐다.”

Shin’s comments are in line with the poll results.
신교수의 발언은 여론조사 결과와 맥을 같이 한다.

Fifty-two percent of all respondents said they believe voters should support the opposition bloc to keep the Yoon administration in check, while 38 percent said the opposite. This suggests that many voters perceive the Yoon administration as failing to steer the country in the right direction, yet they are not throwing their support behind the DPK.
전체 응답자의 52%가 윤 정권을 견제하기 위해 유권자들이 야당을 지지해야 한다고 생각한다고 답한 반면 38%는 반대로 답했다. 이는 많은 유권자들이 윤 정권이 나라를 올바른 방향으로 이끄는 데 실패했다고 인식하면서도 민주당에 지지를 던지지 않고 있음을 시사한다.

President Yoon Suk Yeol listens to a participant's remarks during a town hall meeting on youth policy in Gwangmyeong, Gyeonggi Province, Tuesday. Courtesy of presidential office 윤석열 대통령이 22일 경기 광명시 청년정책 타운홀 미팅에서 참석자의 발언을 듣고 있다. 대통령실 제공

Similar results were observed in questions about the respective election slogans of the rival parties.
여야 각각의 선거 구호에 대한 질문에서도 유사한 결과가 관찰되었다.

When asked about opinions on the DPK’s slogan, “making a judgment against the prosecution’s dominance in the Yoon administration,” 57 percent expressed agreement, while 37 percent said they disagreed.
'윤정부에서 검찰의 독주에 반하는 판단을 한다,'는 민주당의 슬로건에 대한 의견을 묻는 질문에는 57%가 찬성을, 37%는 반대를 나타냈다.

On the other hand, 48 percent of the respondents said they agree with the PPP’s slogan, “rooting out politics controlled by former liberal activists,” while 44 percent said they disagreed.
반면 국민의힘의 슬로건인 '전 진보 운동가들이 장악한 정치를 뿌리 뽑는다,'에 대해서는 48%가 동의한다고 답했고, 44%는 동의하지 않는다고 답했다.

The Korea Times commissioned the survey to gauge public sentiment. Hankook Research surveyed 1,002 adults in phone interviews on Monday and Tuesday.
코리아타임스가 여론조사를 의뢰한 결과다. 한국리서치는 월요일과 화요일 성인 1,002명을 대상으로 전화 인터뷰를 했다.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, with a credibility rate of 95 percent. Further details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.
이번 조사는 오차범위가 플러스 또는 마이너스 3.1%포인트로 95%의 신뢰도를 보이고 있다. 자세한 내용은 중앙선거조사심의위원회 홈페이지에서 확인할 수 있다.

#rulingparty여당 #mainopposition제1야당 #publicopinionpoll여론조사 #proportionalrepresentation비례대표 #swingvoters부동층 #satelliteparty위성정당 #electorallandscape선거지형 #credibilityrate신뢰도 #phoneinterviews전화인터뷰