시진핑 집권 연장 가능성에 관한 뉴욕타임즈 기사

[sunanugi]

한겨레시문에 시진핑 관련 기사가 떴다.

뉴욕타임즈 기사를 인용, 요약해서 보도한 것이다.

중국에 계신 분들을 위해서 귀챠니즘을 이기고 

한겨레신문의 기사와 뉴욕타임즈 원문 기사를 복사해 붙였다.  

(사진과 원문의 하이퍼링크는 링크가 깨어져 있을 수 있다.)

크게 봐서, 내용은 몇 달 전부터 보도되어 오던 것과 유사하다. 

지난 여름 베이다이허에서 무엇이 논의되고 결정되었는가는

외부 관측자로서는 도저히 알 수가 없다.

어쨌거나, 10월 하순(10월 24일부터 27일까지)의 18기 6중전회를 주목해야 한다.

http://www.hani.co.kr/arti/international/china/764256.html?_fr=mt2

시진핑, 집권 연장 꾀하나

등록 :2016-10-05 16:39 수정 :2016-10-05 16:59

“더 많은 경험…후계자 결정 않을 것”
<뉴욕 타임스> 중국공산당 내부 인용보도
이례적 권력집중에 관례 의식하지 않을 수도

지난달 29일 중국 베이징에서 개최된 '후진타오 문선' 보고회에서 시진핑 국가주석이 발언하고 있다. 베이징/신화 연합뉴스

내년 하반기 첫번째 5년 임기를 마치는 시진핑 중국 국가주석이 후계자 지명을 늦출 가능성이 있다고 <뉴욕 타임스>가 4일 보도했다.

중국공산당 내 고위층 및 그들의 가족과 가까운 4명의 내부 소식통은 시 주석이 후계자 지명을 연기할 가능성이 크다고 밝혔다고 이 신문은 전했다. 이들 가운데 한 명은 “민감한 문제”라면서 “시 주석은 자신이 선호하는 사람들이 더 많은 경험을 쌓고 더 많은 시험을 거칠 때까지 (후계자를) 결정하지 않을 것이라 생각한다”고 말했다.

중국공산당은 1990년대 이후 5년 임기의 총서기직을 두 차례 역임하는 것이 관례화됐으며, 두 번째 임기가 시작될 무렵엔 후계자가 확정됐다. 또 후계자는 현직 총서기의 선택이 아니라 당내 엘리트 그룹의 막후 논쟁과 합의에 따라 정해졌다. 앞서 장쩌민, 후진타오 전 주석은 직접 고르지 않은 후계자가 등극하는 운명을 받아들여야 했다. 2012년 총서기가 된 시 주석은 내년 하반기 19차 당대회 때 두 번째 임기를 시작하게 되므로, 이때까지 후계자가 지명돼야 하지만 이것이 불투명하다는 얘기다.

시 주석은 이전 두 지도자와는 달리 이례적일 만큼 권력을 집중시킨 상태에서 ‘반부패’를 기치로 걸고 권력을 휘둘러와 관례를 의식하지 않고 있을 가능성이 높다고 이 신문은 분석했다. 중국공산당 역사를 전공한 워런 쑨 오스트레일리아 모나슈대 연구원은 “집권 이후 독재적 정치를 펼쳐온 시 주석은 (후임 승계에 대한) 불문율에 의한 제약을 가장 느끼지 않을 것 같은 인물”이라고 말했다.

후계자 지명을 늦추는 것은 권력 구도를 둘러싼 당내 갈등을 장기화·격화할 수 있다. 시 주석이 세 번째 임기를 노릴 수 있다는 불확실성도 높아진다. 집단지도체제를 무력화할 수 있다는 우려 속에 당내 원로와 견제 세력은 시 주석에게 후계자 지명을 촉구할 가능성이 높다.

현재 승계 방식은 현대 중국의 오랜 권력투쟁 끝에 마오쩌둥 같은 ‘종신 독재’를 막고 예측가능성과 안정성을 확보하기 위해 고안된 것으로 평가된다. 시 주석이 여기에 손을 대 자신의 권위를 높인다 해도 결국엔 정교하게 맞춰진 균형에 불안정성을 초래할 수 있다고 이 신문은 지적했다.

<뉴욕 타임스>는 내년 당대회에서 정치국 상무위원회 구성을 눈여겨봐야 한다고 했다. 당대회를 앞두고 정치국 상무위원 7명 가운데 시 주석과 리커창 총리를 제외한 5명은 또다른 불문율인 이른바 ‘7상8하’(67살은 유임, 68살은 은퇴)에 따라 은퇴 대상이 된다. 그러나 일각에서는 시 주석이 자신과 가까운 왕치산 중앙기율검사위 서기를 유임시키고, 정치적 경쟁자로 간주되는 리 총리를 격하시킬 수 있다는 전망을 내놓고 있다.

베이징/김외현 특파원 oscar@hani.co.kr

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/05/world/asia/china-president-xi-jinping-successor.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FXi%20Jinping&_r=0

Xi Jinping May Delay Picking China’s Next Leader, Stoking Speculation

By CHRIS BUCKLEYOCT. 4, 2016

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President Xi Jinping of China during a ceremony observing Martyrs’ Day, a holiday that memorializes Chinese who died in battle against foreign powers, at Tiananmen Square in Beijing last week. Credit Mark Schiefelbein/Associated Press

BEIJING — The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, appears prepared to defy the Communist Party’s established script for transferring power and delay the designation of his successor until after a party congress next year, unsettling the party elite and stirring speculation that he wants to prolong his tenure.

The delay would buy Mr. Xi more time to promote and test favored candidates and prevent his influence from ebbing away to a leader-in-waiting, experts and political insiders said. But the price could be years of friction while a pack of aspiring cadres vie for the top job, as well as unnerving uncertainty over whether Mr. Xi wants to stay in power beyond the usual two terms as party leader.

Although Mr. Xi’s decision will not be known until late 2017, the suggestion that he intends to break with precedent and begin his second term without a probable successor is magnifying uncertainties about who will rise and who will fall in the expected shake-up, including questions about the fate of the premier, Li Keqiang.

“It’s a very delicate issue,” said a member of the party establishment who regularly speaks with senior officials. He spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the party’s ban on discussing sensitive internal decisions.

“I don’t think Xi wants to decide until the people he favors have more experience, more testing,” he said.

In interviews, three other party insiders close to senior officials and their families said Mr. Xi appeared likely to delay picking a successor.

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Mr. Xi, center, with Premier Li Keqiang, left, and the chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, Zhang Dejiang, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing last week. Some officials and analysts have said that Mr. Xi wants to shunt Mr. Li into a lesser job. Credit Andy Wong/Associated Press

The succession quandary is shaping up as a defining test of the power and ambition of Mr. Xi, already China’s most dominant leader in decades. When and how his heir is chosen, and who is picked, will offer a measure of how much further Mr. Xi can bend the party’s ideas of collective rule that evolved after the upheavals of Mao Zedong’s last years.

The system for succession, developed after a long period of political turmoil, was devised to help ensure a predictable, stable transition of power in the one-party state. Any effort by Mr. Xi to alter that compact might increase his considerable authority, but it could also inject instability into the delicately balanced system.

Making predictions about Chinese leadership handovers is always perilous. The discussions are secret. Key decisions often come together late in the deliberations. And the ascendancy of Mr. Xi, opaque even by the standards of party leaders, makes forecasts even harder.

“Xi Jinping has unleashed forces that open up a wide range of political futures, and each has its dangers,” David M. Lampton, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said by email. “The central policy reality is that the United States, and the next president, must be prepared to deal with a wider range of possibilities in China.”

The drama will probably begin in earnest this month, when the Central Committee, about 200 senior officials who sign off on major decisions, meets in Beijing. That meeting is likely to set in motion plans for the congress, which will meet in late 2017 to endorse a new top lineup.

While it is a given that the congress will back Mr. Xi for another five-year term as party leader, nearly everything else is up for grabs, giving Mr. Xi great sway to shape the new leadership.

Five of the seven members of the powerful Politburo Standing Committee must step down because of age, assuming the informal retirement age of 68 holds. That leaves only Mr. Xi, 63, and Mr. Li, 61, to return.

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Mr. Xi with Yu Zhengsheng, center, and Wang Qishan, members of the Politburo Standing Committee, marking the 67th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in Beijing last week. There are whispers that Mr. Xi wants to raise the retirement age for the Standing Committee so that Mr. Wang, an ally, can stay on. Credit Andy Wong/Associated Press

In the broader Politburo, the second tier of party authority, nearly half the 25 members are likely to retire.

Two terms as party leader has evolved as the standard since the 1990s, and an heir apparent is usually clear by the start of the second. The selection requires a consensus of the party elite, the product of behind-the-scenes wrangling. The previous two presidents had to accept successors who were not their picks.

But Mr. Xi’s blistering anticorruption campaign and amassing of power have shaken the idea that Chinese elite politics has settled into a stolid routine under collective control. If China’s party leaders function like a corporate board, Mr. Xi is akin to the celebrity chairman who may have the power to stare down opposition to his succession plan.

“Having played the strongman politics since coming to power, Xi would be the least likely person to feel constrained by these unspoken rules” of succession, said Warren Sun, a researcher on Chinese Communist Party history at Monash University in Australia.

Delaying the choice of a successor would allow time for Mr. Xi’s favorites to prove their ability and loyalty, experts said. The latter could allow Mr. Xi to continue to wield power behind the scenes after he retires.

But it could also create “severe friction” in the next five years, said Sebastian Heilmann, the president of the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin. “Not designating a successor could be seen as a trick by Xi to grab a third term,” he said.

The risk of elite infighting, as well as demands from other senior officials and retired leaders, could still force Mr. Xi to signal his successor next year, several experts said.

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Souvenirs featuring Mao Zedong and Mr. Xi in Beijing. Mr. Xi has become China’s most dominant leader in decades. Credit Thomas Peter/Reuters

“Even the amount of consolidation of power so far may have raised hackles,” said Susan Shirk, the chairwoman of the 21st Century China Program at the University of California, San Diego. “I don’t think Xi will want to further raise alarms about Putinesque intentions.”

If he is pressed to name someone, a younger Politburo member like Sun Zhengcai, the party secretary of Chongqing, could gain support.

The world may not know who has won and lost until Mr. Xi introduces his new team after the congress ends late next year.

But some officials and analysts are already saying that he wants to shunt Mr. Li, the premier, into a lesser job. There are whispers that Mr. Xi wants to raise the retirement age for the Standing Committee so that Wang Qishan, the powerful head of the party’s anticorruption agency, can stay on, possibly to replace Mr. Li.

Mr. Wang, a longtime friend of Mr. Xi’s, spent a career as an economic firefighter before taking his current job, in which he has helped Mr. Xi oust potential opponents.

Mr. Wang will be 69 by the time of the next congress, but changing the retirement age for political expediency is not unheard-of. It was 70 before Jiang Zemin lowered it so he could force out a political rival in 2002.

Predicting what happens depends on “whether or not you think the de facto rules and norms of elite succession will hold,” said Evan S. Medeiros, the former senior director for Asian affairs in the National Security Council under President Obama. “If not, predicting outcomes is a crapshoot.”

Mao and Deng Xiaoping chose favored successors only to dump them later, creating instability and bad blood in the party. On the other hand, Mr. Xi’s predecessor Hu Jintao spent a decade in preparation as heir apparent but still struggled as leader to run a team dominated by men installed by his predecessor, Mr. Jiang.

Mr. Xi and other Chinese leaders hold that it was the poor choice of Mikhail S. Gorbachev to lead the Soviet Union that precipitated its demise.

“Finally, all it took was one quiet word from Gorbachev to declare the dissolution of the Soviet Communist Party, and a great party was gone,” Mr. Xi said after he was appointed Chinese leader in 2012. “In the end nobody was a real man.”

The dilemma for Mr. Xi is that the politicians who will remain in the top echelons after next year’s retirements do not have long experience working with Mr. Xi or the right set of postings in provincial and central government, according to several experts and people who speak to senior officials. But the rising provincial leaders considered closest to him lack the experience to be taken seriously as the next national leader in waiting.

Perhaps the biggest subject of speculation is that Mr. Xi is bent on staying in power after his second term ends in 2022. The Constitution requires that he retire after two terms as president, but there is no limit on the more powerful job, general secretary of the party.

There is, however, an informal limit, which, like collective rule by the party elite, was instituted by Deng to prevent another dictator-for-life like Mao.

Even if he delays picking a successor, that does not mean he is determined to stay on as leader past 2022, when he will be 69, said Christopher K. Johnson, a senior China analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“The only thing he’s focused on right now is next fall,” Mr. Johnson said. “If he gets his way next fall, which I think would mean they don’t signal the successor, that doesn’t then mean he’s already decided to stay on forever.”

[메이데이]

방금 읽었어요. 중국 거주자를 생각해 주셔서 감사합니다. 18기 6중 전회를 주목하겠습니다.