우크라이나의 쿠르스크 공세의 목표; 러시아의 영토에 완충지대를 만드는 것

[위종민]

크라이나가 쿠르스크 공세를 시작한 지 2주만에 볼로디미르 젤렌스키 우크라이나 대통령이 공세의 전략적 목적을 공개했네요. 

8월 18일 대국민 정기 방송에서 "러시아의 전쟁 잠재력을 최대한 파괴하고, 최대한의 반격 행동을 취하는 것이 방어작전 전반에서 우리의 주요 임무"이며 "여기에는 침략자의 영토에 완충지대를 만드는 것, 즉 쿠르스크에서의 작전이 포함된다."고 밝혔다고 합니다. 

러시아가 도네츠크 지역에서 공세를 취하는 등, 3,000km 길이의 전선 중 970km에서 격렬한 전투가 벌어지고 있는데 이에 대해 우크라이나군은 2023년의 공세와는 달리 공세의도를 성공적으로 숨긴 채 쿠르스크에 대한 기습침공으로 대응했습니다. 

저는 우크라이나가 대규모 점령지를 획득해 유지할 능력이 없을 거라고 생각해 일주일 정도 치고 들어갔다가 철수하지 않을까 했는데 장기 점령전을 의도했나봅니다. 쿠르스크 지역에 군사행정사무소를 설치했다고 하네요. 쿠르스크 지역에 적절한 군사경계선을 삼을 자연장애물이 있나 모르겠네요. 전쟁잠재력 파괴를 노리는 것에는 심리적인 요소도 포함될 텐데, 이번 공세가 러시아 군인이나 국민의 사기에 얼마나 큰 영향을 줄 수 있을지도 지켜봐야겠습니다. 

Zelenskyy divulges intention behind Kursk incursion - Army Technology (army-technology.com)

Zelenskyy divulges intention behind Kursk incursion - Army Technology

Zelenskyy divulges intention behind Kursk incursion

Ukraine’s counter-offensive operation has secured a “buffer zone” inside Russia, as the armed forces deprive the Russians their ability to wage war.

John HillAugust 19, 2024

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A Ukrainian soldiers in a trench holding a rifle in Donetsk, 14 February 2024. Now, Ukraine’s forces are conducting a counter-offensive inside Russia. Credit: Shutterstock/Drop of Light.

After two weeks of speculation, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, disclosed the strategic purpose of the armed forces’ surprising incursion into Russia’s Kursk region for the first time.

In one of his regular broadcasts to the nation, on the evening of 18 August 2024, he stated:

“It is now our primary task in defensive operations overall to destroy as much Russian war potential as possible and conduct maximum counter-offensive actions.”

He added: “This includes creating a buffer zone on the aggressor’s territory – our operation in the Kursk region.”

The situation so far

Until now, Ukraine has operated defensively after Russian forces broke an enduring deadlock through sheer mass of troops in the East Ukrainian theatre.

Russia has made some marginal advances at several points, particularly in Donetsk. Intense fighting persists along more than 970km of the 3,000km frontline.

In response, Ukraine’s forces organised a surprise incursion into Kursk Oblast, a decision met with derision and praise in equal measure as Ukrainian high command did well to keep their intentions hidden, in contrast to its 2023 counter-offensive.

President Zelenskyy addressing the nation, revealing limited details of the rationale behind the Russian incursion, 18 August 2024. Credit: Office of the President of Ukraine.

Recently, Ukrainian military officials have claimed control of up to 1,000km of Russian territory, and this is anticipated to increase further, after the Washington Post suggested the incursion will advance into neighbouring Belgorod Oblast.

Nonetheless, one leading academic, Phillips O’Brien, a Professor in Strategic Studies, University of St Andrews, noted that “the Ukrainian offensive in Russia has taken approximately as much territory in 11 days than the Russians have taken in Ukraine in 2024 – and if things continue it will take more.”

Two parts to Ukraine’s strategy

For good or for ill, Ukraine’s plans are coming into fruition. There are two moving parts to the new military strategy when dissecting the limited information that Zelenskyy made in his address: securing the ‘buffer zone’ in Russia and the elimination of ‘Russian war potential’.

The security of the buffer is signalled by the minimal response Russia has mustered to respond to the loss of territory. Also, Ukraine has set up military administration offices in the Kursk region, adding to the sense of consolidation by establishing a fixed point from where it may direct its forces deeper inside Russia.

Meanwhile, the call to destroy ‘Russian war potential’ is already underway. Ukrainian Air Force Commander, Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, confirmed the service conducted an airstrike against a bridge across the Seim River in Zvannoye, creating a large hole along the roadway. There are also widespread reports of two other Russian bridges being destroyed.

Moreover, GlobalData Defence Analyst Fox Walker suggests that there may be more depth to depriving Russian resources:

“Two meanings come to mind when thinking about the importance of destroying Russian war potential. The first meaning is physical while the second is more psychological. A major goal of Ukraine’s offensive targeting in Russian territory thus far has been the destruction of Russian supply lines. Zelenskyy hopes to weaken Russia’s capacity to wage war by attacking the factories and infrastructure that produce and transport weapons, vehicles, and personnel.

“The second and more psychological tactic is to disorganise and disorient Russian strategists. The Kursk operation requires Russian war leaders to devote time and resources to combatting Ukraine’s incursion. Russian leadership is scrambling to come up with tactics, operations, and strategies to prevent Ukraine from making further progress in the region.

“The Kursk incursion has already displaced about 200,000 Russians, so senior officials must work urgently to keep that number from growing, lest they sow further chaos and anger in Russia,” Walker added.

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사실 러시아쪽 사기보다는 자국민들 사기 진작을 노렸을지도?

[위종민]

이 것도 공세의 주요 동기 중 하나였을 것 같습니다. 쿠르스크 주 피난민들이 러시아 타 지역으로 유입되면서 전쟁반대 여론이 생기고 있다고 하던데 실제적인 효과가 발휘되고 있는지는 지켜봐야 될 것 같아요.