캐나다, 빙해작전용 재래식 잠수함 12척 조달계획 발표

[위종민]

캐나다가 재래식잠수함 12척 조달 계획을 발표했습니다. 이번 투자로 2029년~2030년까지 국방비를 GDP 대비 1.76%로 끌어올릴 수 있다고 하네요. 

현재 캐나다 해군은 2000년부터 운용을 시작한 중고 업홀더급(빅토리아급) 잠수함 4척을 보유중이며, 상시 가동률은 일반적으로 4척 중 1척이라고 합니다. 빌 블레어 국방부장관은 재래식잠수함 도입을 시사했지만 쥐스탱 트뤼도 총리는 핵추진 잠수함 도입 가능성을 부인하지 않았네요. 

RFI는 가을에 발행될 예정이며, 현재까지 이 계획에는 한화오션, 나반티아, 사브, 티센크룹 등의 회사들이 관심을 표명하고 있습니다. 

https://news.usni.org/2024/07/16/canada-announces-plan-to-buy-12-under-ice-submarines

Canada Announces Plan to Buy 12 Under Ice Submarines

JOETEY ATTARIWALA

JULY 16, 2024 3:21 PM - UPDATED: JULY 17, 2024 10:31 PM

Royal Canadian Navy submarine HMCS Victoria (SSK-876) arrives at Naval Base Kitsap-Bangor, Wash., for a port call and routine maintenance in 2011. US Navy Photo

With the high-profile backdrop of the NATO summit in Washington, D.C., Canada announced it will acquire 12 conventionally-powered submarines for the Royal Canadian Navy. 

The announcement does not come as a surprise, as the government formally established the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project office in 2022 with the remit to investigate options for a follow-on submarine capability to replace the existing Victoria-class diesel-electric submarines, of which Canada operates four.

These boats are former Upholder-class submarines of the U.K. Royal Navy. Canada purchased them in 1998, with the first arriving in 2000. The Victoria-class boats have experienced significant support and sustainability issues since their induction into service with the RCN and these problems have severely limited the fleet’s operational availability. Of the four boats, only one is typically available at a high readiness rate. Nonetheless, Canada has invested hundreds of millions of dollars to keep its submarine capability alive, thus enabling the service to maintain a cadre of submariners.

Canada’s future submarine capability was a highlight of the recent Defence Policy Update titled “Our North, Strong and Free,” which the Canadian government released in April. The policy focuses primarily on the North and Arctic regions of Canada.

“Rising and disruptive powers like China and Russia mean NATO’s northern and western flank is the Canadian Arctic… The Northwest Passage could become the most efficient shipping route between Europe and Asia by 2050,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said of the continental defense in his remarks at the time.

Canada outlined a number of initiatives, including investing in North American Aerospace Defense Command modernization, buying airborne early warning & control aircraft and exploring options for new submarines.

While Canada is not part of the AUKUS security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, it is an observer in one of the working groups in AUKUS pillar two, which covers the technology sharing portion of the agreement

The DPU announcement provided mixed messaging on submarines as Trudeau, when asked about the benefit of nuclear-powered submarines for capability underneath the ice, said: “That is certainly what we will be looking at, as to what type of submarines are most appropriate for Canada’s responsibility in protecting the longest coastline in the world, and certainly the longest Arctic coastline in the world.”

The statement contradicted what Bill Blair, the Minister of National Defence, said during the same press event, when he said the government is exploring options to “renew and expand our submarines with a new conventional fleet which will be capable of operating under the ice.”

“The investments, which will be in Budget 2024, will bring our defense spending to 1.76 percent of GDP by 2029/30,” Blair said during the DPU announcement.

Although the DPU initiatives outline a path for a significant boost in Canada’s defense spending, the country still falls short of its NATO commitment to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense. The perceived lack of imperative to meet this target was front and center during last week’s NATO summit in D.C. By the end of the summit, Trudeau announced that Canada expects to spend 2 percent of its GDP on defense by 2032, but did not provide details on the path to achieve that goal.

The CPSP will contribute to that goal as it seeks to acquire a larger, modernized submarine fleet to enable the RCN to covertly detect and deter maritime threats, control maritime approaches, project power and striking capability further from Canada’s shores and project a persistent deterrent on all three coasts. Key submarine capability requirements will be stealth, lethality, persistence and Arctic deployability, which means the submarines must have extended range and endurance.

The government will post a formal request for information in the fall to gain more information on the procurement, construction, delivery and operational capabilities of potential bidders that can build submarines for Canada. This RFI will also seek to gain information to enable the establishment of a submarine sustainment capability in Canada. The CPSP will fall outside of Canada’s existing National Shipbuilding Strategy and the government has not released any figures on cost or timeline.

Submarine manufacturers that have publicly expressed interest in CPSP include Hanwha Ocean, Navantia, Saab and ThyssenKrupp Marine.

[백선호]

12척이면 꽤 많네요.

[위종민]

이제 건조 시작해 15척 건조하는 구축함도 2050년대에야 건조가 완료된다는데 2029년~2030년에야 건조 시작할 이 잠수함도 비슷한 시기까지 만들어야 할라나요. ( https://cafe.daum.net/NTDS/51Tv/1305 )

애초 12척 건조가 차질없이 예정대로 진행되기나 할 지 모르겠습니다 ㅎㅎㅎ

[강준구]

기사 내용처럼 AUKUS 멤버는 아니지만, 옵저버이니 호주와 같은 선택을 하게 되지 않을까 싶기도 합니다.
무장 및 센서를 보면, 안창호함이 그닥 매력적으로 보이지 않는 것 같습니다. 캐나다가 다른 나라에 탄도미사일을 쏠 것도 아니구요.

[위종민]

탄도미사일 대신 토마호크 쏠 수 있는 VLS로 바꾼 녀석을 개발해서 제안해야 할 것 같습니다. 일단 연료전지가 됐건 일본식의 풀 리튬이온 배터리가 됐건 재래식 잠수함으로 빙해, 빙하작전 능력을 갖추려면 장시간 활동능력은 필수일 것 같고요.

[강준구]

사실 대지상 타격능력 보다는 대수상함 전투 능력이 더 중요할 수 있다고도 보이는데요.
빅토리아 클래스가 MK.48 어뢰를 썼으니, 미국제 무장 통합은 필수적으로 보입니다.

[위종민]

제일 중요한 건 정치경제적 영향력일 텐데, 재래식 잠수함 안 만드는 미국-영국이 사업에 낄 일은 없으니 그나마 다행이네요.

캐나다에 잠수함을 건조할 조선소가 있나 모르겠네요. 대부분의 일감을 캐나다 조선소에 주거나 해야 할 텐데. 다른 나라들 대비 한국이 얼마나 캐나다에 퍼줄 수 있는지가 당락을 좌우하겠지요. ㅎㅎ

[ssn688]

(어차피 인력도 모자랄 텐데)척수 줄이고, 통상동력함보다 약간 많은 정도의 쉬프랑급 원잠을 들이는 게 더 나아보입니다만... (게다가 캐나다는 원전 운용국 -_-)

[위종민]

쉬프랑급 운용인력이 60명이라고 하니 업홀더급 4척을 쉬프랑급으로 1:1, 혹은 6척 정도 도입하는 게 최선일 것 같긴 한데 이건 미국이 싫어할 지도요 ㅋㅋㅋ