Election outcome to reshape Korean politics 선거결과, 한국정치 재편

[김우정]

저는 아침 6시에 아내와 함께 투표를 하고왔습니다.

이번 22대 국회의원선거의 관전포인트는

 1. 여권과 야권중 어느쪽이 과반을 차지할 것인가?

 2. 범야권이 과반을 넘으면 180석이 넘을것인가 아니면 200석이 넘을 것인가?

등 입니다. 내일 아침이면 어김없이 결과가 나오겠죠.

Election outcome to reshape Korean politics
선거결과, 한국정치 재편

By Nam Hyun-woo 남현우 기자
Posted : 2024-04-09 16:47 Updated : 2024-04-09 17:10
Korea Times

An official at the National Election Commission holds a voting stamp at a polling station in Yeongdeungpo District, Seoul, Tuesday, a day before the country casts ballots to elect lawmakers of the 22nd National Assembly. Yonhap 제22대 국회의원 선거를 하루 앞둔 화요일 서울 영등포구 한 투표소에서 중앙선거관리위원회 관계자가 투표용지를 들고 있다. 연합

Nation to go to polls Wednesday to elect 300 lawmakers
수요일, 국회의원 300명 선출을 위해 온 나라가 투표

Voters will cast ballots to elect 300 lawmakers Wednesday, to determine the fate of Korea's politics for the next four years, by either giving the ruling bloc a much-needed boost for its pledges and goals or sending a resounding message of disapproval regarding its performance and policies.
유권자들은 수요일, 300명의 국회의원을 선출하기 위해 투표를 할 것이며 이는 여당의 공약과 목표에 대해 절실히 필요로 하는 지지를 보내거나 그 성과와 정책에 대해 커다란 불만의 메시지를 보내는 것 중 하나이다.

The main political theme of the general elections is whether the public will harshly judge the main parties here. The main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) is calling on the nation to “hand down judgment on the Yoon Suk Yeol administration,” while the ruling People Power Party (PPP) is urging voters to “punish DPK Chairman Lee Jae-myung and his party, which has been controlling the National Assembly” with its majority status over the past four years.
총선의 주요 정치적 주제는 국민들이 이곳에서 주요 정당들을 혹독하게 심판할 것인가 하는 것이다. 제1야당인 더불어 민주당은 "윤석열 정권에 대한 심판을 내려달라,"고 요구하고 있고, 여당인 국민의 힘은 유권자들에게 "지난 4년간 다수당의 지위를 가지고 국회를 장악해온 민주당 이재명 대표와 그의 당을 처단하라"고 촉구하고 있다.

Analysts and politicians are saying whatever the outcome may be, an upheaval will be unavoidable in the country’s political landscape, affecting Yoon’s grip on state affairs and the subsequent power struggles within both the DPK and the PPP.
분석가들과 정치인들은 결과가 어떻게 되든 간에 우리나라 정치지형에 격변이 불가피할 것이며 이는 윤 대통령의 국정장악과 이에 따른 민주당과 국민의 힘 내의 권력투쟁에 영향을 미칠 것이라고 말하고 있다.

From 6 a.m. to 6 p.m., voters will be able to cast their ballots at 14,259 polling stations across the country to elect 254 constituency and 46 proportional representation lawmakers who will form the 22nd National Assembly for the next four years. Of the 44.28 million eligible voters, 13.85 million, or 31.28 percent, already cast their ballots during early voting — from Friday to Saturday.
유권자들은 이날 오전 6시부터 오후 6시까지 전국 1만4,259개 투표소에서 투표를 통해 254개 지역구와 향후 4년간 22대 국회를 구성할 46명의 비례대표 의원을 선출할 수 있게 된다. 유권자 4,428만 명 중 31.28%인 1,385만 명이 이미 사전투표를 통해 투표를 마쳤다.

Main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) Chairman Lee Jae-myung, center, reads a statement during his appearance at the Seoul Central District Court in Seocho District, Seoul, to attend a hearing on his corruption allegations. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul 더불어민주당 이재명 대표(가운데)가 서울 서초구 서울중앙지방법원에 출석해 부패혐의 관련 청문회에 출석해 모두발언을 하고 있다. 코리아 타임즈 사진 심현철 기자

The key point of Wednesday’s elections will be which side will secure more than half of the 300 seats.
26일 선거의 관건은 전체 300석 가운데 절반 이상을 어느 쪽이 확보하느냐가 될 것으로 보인다.

Since the elections are widely viewed as a midterm eval‎uation of Yoon, who started his five-year term in May 2022, a DPK majority result would be interpreted as the public demonstrating its frustration toward the administration, resulting in Yoon losing a grip on state affairs with more than half of his term left.
이번 선거는 2022년 5월 5년 임기를 시작한 윤 대통령에 대한 중간평가라는 시각이 지배적이기 때문에 민주당 다수당의 결과는 임기의 절반 이상을 남겨둔 상황에서 국정 장악력을 상실한 국민의 불만이 표출된 것으로 해석된다.

For the past two years, Yoon has faced stumbling blocks in exercising his political power, as the DPK, which has held more than 150 Assembly seats, has been opposing many of the president’s policies and Cabinet appointments.
지난 2년간 윤 대통령은 150석 이상의 의석을 가진 민주당이 대통령의 정책과 내각 임명에 반대해왔기 때문에 정치력을 행사하는 데 장애물에 직면했다.

This tendency will be even more pronounced if the DPK maintains its majority. And it will likely make the PPP pay less attention to Yoon and instead, strive to reform the party, while facing serious internal power struggles over who will be its next presidential candidate.
이러한 경향은 만일 민주당이 다수당을 유지한다면 더욱 두드러질 것이다. 그리고 이는 국민의 힘이 윤 대통령에게 관심을 덜 기울이게 하고 대신 당의 개혁에 힘쓰도록 만들 것이며 누가 차기 대선 후보가 될 것인가를 놓고 심각한 내부 권력 투쟁에 직면하게 할 것이다.

“In case the DPK holds the majority, Yoon will likely face limits in most of his political capabilities, thereby falling into a lame duck status,” said Cho Jin-man, a politics professor at Duksung Women’s University.
조진만 덕성여대 정치학과 교수는 "민주당이 다수를 차지할 경우 윤 대통령의 정치적 역량이 한계에 부딪혀 레임덕에 빠질 것,"이라고 말했다.

“Turmoil in the PPP will be inevitable. It will have to reassess its relations with the Yoon administration and put emphasis on future power.”
"국민의 힘의 혼란은 불가피할 것이다. 윤 정부와의 관계를 재평가하고 미래 권력에 역점을 둬야 할 것이다.”

During his speech on Tuesday, DPK Chairman Lee Jae-myung urged voters to cast their ballots “to prevent the political forces that betrayed the public from holding a majority in the Assembly.”
민주당 이재명 대표는 어제 연설에서 "국민을 배신한 정치세력이 국회에서 다수당을 차지하지 못하도록 유권자들에게 투표를 해달라."고 촉구했다.

“The Yoon administration downgraded every aspect of the country’s economy, public livelihood, diplomacy, security and democracy,” Lee said. “Please prove that no administration can exist by defying the public, and no power can defeat the people.”
이대표는 "윤 정부는 경제, 민생, 외교, 안보, 민주주의의 모든 측면을 격하시켰다."며 "어떤 정부도 국민을 거스르는 것으로는 존재할 수 없고, 어떤 권력도 국민을 이길 수 없다는 것을 증명해 달라."고 말했다.

People Power Party interim leader Han Dong-hoon speaks while canvassing in Seongdong District, Seoul, Tuesday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk 한동훈 국민의힘 비상대책위원장이 20일 서울 성동구 유세장에서 발언하고 있다. 코리아타임스 사진 최원석 기자

If the ruling party clinches the majority, the situation will be the opposite.
여당이 다수당을 차지하면 상황은 정반대가 될 것이다.

Yoon will be able to gain momentum in pursuing his policies, such as his three major reform proposals: labor, pension and education, which have been on hold due to the DPK’s opposition.
윤 대통령은 민주당의 반대로 보류된 노동, 연금, 교육 등 3대 개혁안과 같은 자신의 정책 추진에 탄력을 받을 수 있을 것이다.

Also, he will not need to rely on his veto power to resist bills unilaterally, which were often pushed by the main opposition, having done so nine times so far. The DPK’s threat to launch a special counsel probe on Yoon’s wife, Kim Keon Hee, over stock price manipulation allegations, could also lose strength.
또 야당이 9차례나 밀어붙인 법안에 대해 거부권을 행사해 일방적으로 저항할 필요도 없을 것이다. 민주당이 주가조작 의혹과 관련해 윤 대통령의 부인 김건희 씨에 대한 특별검사에 착수하겠다고 위협한 것도 힘을 잃을 수 있다.

The ongoing standoff between the government and doctors over the government’s push to expand the admissions quota of medical schools will likely go in Yoon's favor, as the election results can then be seen as a public mandate for the president to persue his aims moving forward.
정부의 의대 입학 정원 확대 추진을 둘러싼 정부와 의사들의 현재 대립은 윤 대통령에게 유리할 것으로 보이는데 선거 결과는 대통령이 자신의 목표를 계속 추구하도록 국민에게 위임한 것으로 볼 수 있기 때문이다.

If the vote is in the PPP's favor, the DPK will face the impact of defeat.
국민의 힘이 이기면 민주당은 패배의 충격에 직면하게 된다.

During the candidate nomination process earlier this year, the DPK suffered serious factional infighting over what critics referred to as its chairman’s “excessive control” over the party. Lee’s leadership will likely be challenged by non-mainstream factions, resulting in chaos over finding who was responsible for the defeat and who should be the next leader.
민주당은 올해 초 공천 과정에서 당 대표의 지나친 장악력을 놓고 심각한 계파 갈등을 겪었다. 비주류 진영이 이 대표의 리더십에 도전하면서 패배의 책임과 책임 소재를 찾는 데 혼란이 빚어질 것으로 보인다.

“If the ruling party wins, the DPK will face criticism for losing the election despite the administration’s poor performance,” Cho said. “In doing so, various factions, which have already experienced infighting recently, will clamor for power … Overall, whoever loses the election will face an upheaval in their political landscape.”
"만약 여당이 이긴다면, 민주당은 정부의 저조한 실적에도 불구하고 선거에서 패배한 것에 대한 비판에 직면할 것이다,"라고 조 교수는 말했다. "그렇게 함으로써, 이미 최근에 내분을 경험한 다양한 파벌들은 권력을 요구할 것입니다 … 전체적으로, 선거에서 지는 사람은 그들의 정치지형에 격변을 맞이할 것이다."

PPP interim leader Han Dong-hoon told voters that casting their ballots for the ruling party is like saving the country from collapse.
한동훈 국민의 힘 비상대책위원장은 유권자들에게 여당에 투표하는 것은 나라를 붕괴로부터 구하는 것과 같다고 말했다.

“Will you let people like the DPK chairman amend the Constitution and exonerate himself from allegations he faces?” he said. “If we lose this opportunity, the only thing we can do is to hit the streets to protest.”
그는 "민주당 대표같은 사람들이 헌법을 개정하고 자신이 직면한 혐의에 대해 무죄를 선고하도록 할 것인가?"라며 "이 기회를 잃는다면 우리가 할 수 있는 일은 거리를 쳐서 항의하는 것뿐."이라고 말했다.

#Electionoutcome선거결과 #Koreanpolitics한국정치 #Lawmakers국회의원 #DemocraticPartyofKorea(DPK)더불어민주당 #PeoplePowerParty(PPP)국민의힘 #Publicdissatisfaction불만 #Politicallandscape정치지형 #Majorityresult다수결 #Presidentialcandidate대선후보 #Factionalinfighting계파갈등