유도탄 AGM-183 ARRW의 단가는 발상 1,500만~1,800만 달러로 추정

[위종민]

미의회 예산국의 추정에 따르면 AGM-183 ARRW는 300기 양산 시 발당 1,490만 달러 (20년 간 프로그램 코스트는 53억 달러), 100기 양산시는 발당 1,800만 달러, 프로그램 코스트는 22억 달러로 추정된다고 합ㄴ니다. 성능은 사정거리 1,000km, 평균속도 마하 7로 추정합니다. 

육군의 LRHW는 300발 양산시 발당 4,100만 달러, 30년간 프로그램 코스트는 179억 달러로 추정하고 있습니다. 사정거리 3,000km, 속도는 마하 10이라고 하고요. 

스크램제트 추진식인 HACM의 비용은 아직 비용계산이 가능할 정도로 성숙되지 않아 추정하지 않았습니다. 

반면 사거리 1,000km인 JASSM-ER은 발당 140만 달러입니다. 

공개정보로만 추정한 데이터라 실제와는 많은 차이가 있을 수도 있겠습니다. 

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/cbo-estimates-15-18-million-cost-per-arrw-hypersonic-missile 

A B-52H Stratofortress assigned to the 419th Flight Test Squadron takes off from Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., Aug. 8, 2020. The aircraft successfully released an AGM-183A Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon, or ARRW, off the Southern California coast, May 14, 2022. U.S. Air Force photo by Matt Williams

CBO Estimates $15-18 Million Cost Per ARRW Hypersonic Missile

Feb. 1, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

5-7 minutes

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The unit cost of a missile “similar to” the Air Force’s AGM-183 Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) hypersonic missile would be about $15 million a copy over a large production run, but a comparable Army ground-launched system would cost almost three times more, according to a new report from the Congressional Budget Office.

In “U.S. Hypersonic Weapons and Alternatives,” the CBO said that a program “similar to” ARRW—which has now reached the phase of testing an all-up operational round—would cost $14.9 million each over a run of 300 missiles. Adding in platform integration and 20 years of sustainment, CBO estimates a program cost of $5.3 billion, not including development. The CBO used “similar to” because actual performance and costs are classified.

To reach its estimates, the CBO said it used the Army ATACMS missile, comparable to the ARRW in size and complexity, as a basis. It said it relied on “publicly available data” and no classified information in developing its estimates.   

If only 100 ARRW-like missiles are bought, the unit cost would be $18 million a copy, and with sustainment and integration, the program cost would be $2.2 billion.

The CBO estimates the ARRW, which it describes as a “medium range” hypersonic missile, would have a reach of 1,000 kilometers, or about 620 miles, and travel at an average speed of Mach 7. The ARRW is a product of Lockheed Martin’s Missiles and Fire Control unit, with heavy input from the Skunk Works advanced development products division.  

However, an Army system “similar” to its Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon—like ARRW, a boost-glide hypersonic missile, but with longer range—would cost $41 million per round across a production run of 300 missiles, and with platform integration and 20 years of sustainment, would cost $17.9 billion for the program.

The LRHW, built by Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, would have a range of about 3,000 kilometers, or 1,860 miles, and travel at a speed of about Mach 10, the CBO said.

The CBO did not estimate comparable unit costs for the Air Force’s Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile, which will be an air-breathing, scramjet-powered air-launched missile. The HACM contract was awarded to Raytheon and Northrop last September, and the CBO said the program is not yet mature enough to make meaningful cost estimates.

Source: CBO

While the ARRW is intended to be carried by the B-52 and possibly the B-1 bombers, the HACM is meant to be carried by fighter-sized aircraft.

An inventory of 300 ARRWs, “would allow for more than 65 B-52 missions with four missiles each,” the CBO noted.

The comparison between the Air Force and Army programs is relevant because Army leaders have in recent years said the service is ready to share in—if not take over—the deep-strike mission using hypersonic weapons. Deep strike has traditionally—under the Key West agreements dividing roles and missions of the services—been an Air Force responsibility with long-range bombers.

The CBO report contrasted the fact that Army hypersonic missiles need a safe ground launch site, while Air Force bombers can launch from an unpredictable position, although the Air Force would have to launch the ARRW closer to the intended target.  

The CBO listed the costs and capabilities for various combinations of hypersonic weapons in order to provide Congress with context for making choices about which weapons to fund in coming budget deliberations.

In comparison to hypersonic weapons, the cost of the AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile—Extended Range (JASSM-ER)—a stealthy missile with a range of 1,000 km that travels at a far slower speed, is about $1.4 million per round.

Despite the high cost per shot of hypersonic missiles, the CBO said there may be military value in being able to strike extremely high-value targets from thousands of miles away with a flight time of only 15-30 minutes. Such strikes could also be useful in the early stages of a conflict.  

Compared to ballistic missiles with maneuvering warheads, hypersonic weapons would also enjoy somewhat better survivability, because ballistic missiles have a more predictable trajectory while hypersonic missiles can maneuver throughout their flight through the atmosphere.

However, there are substantial technological challenges still to overcome before hypersonic missiles are deployable, the CBO noted. The “fundamental” remaining challenge is “managing the extreme heat that hypersonic missiles are exposed to by traveling at high speeds through the atmosphere.” Surface temperatures of 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit requires “shielding hypersonic missiles’ sensitive electronics, understanding how various metals perform, and predicting aerodynamics” at such high temperatures.

Since 2019, the Pentagon has spent more than $8 billion on hypersonic missiles, the CBO said, and the Defense Department plans to spend another $13 billion on the technology across the fiscal 2023-2027 future years defense plan, with yet another $2 billion earmarked for production of Army and Air Force weapons, as “the Navy has not yet requested procurement funding for the hypersonic missile it is developing.”

[백선호]

1800만 달러보다는 비싼 표적에 쏴야 남는 장사겠네요.

[위종민]

타격수단도 하이로우믹스화돼 가네요. 싸구려 폭탄에서 활공탄까지..

[ssn688]

비슷한 탄도탄 기반에서도 활강탄이 MaRV보다도 많이 비싸네요;;;

[위종민]

개발비의 차이일까요? 저 정도면 활강탄 300발 대신 IRBM 450발 양산하는 게 더 나을 지도..

[엽군]

HGV는 엔진 달려있으니까 많이 더 비싸겠죠. -_-;

[위종민]

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/03/air-force-to-ditch-troubled-arrw-hypersonic-missile/

3월 실험 실패로 공군이 ARRW 계획을 폐기하길 원한다는데 실제로 계획이 엎어질 지..