Middle East risks increase uncertainties on Korean economy 중동 리스크 고조

[김우정]

어제 새벽 이란이 이스라엘을 공습했습니다.

윤대통령은 긴급회의를 소집하고 대책을 논의했습니다.

양국의 교전이 시작되면 인플레이션, 금리, 유가에 나쁜 영향을 미칩니다.

이스라엘이 대응공격을 하고 중동전으로 확전돼지 않기를 바랍니다.

Heightened Middle East risks increase uncertainties on Korean economy
중동 리스크 고조로 한국 경제 불확실성 확대

By Lee Yeon-woo 이연우 기자
Posted : 2024-04-14 16:16 Updated : 2024-04-14 16:19
Korea Times

President Yoon Suk Yeol, third from left, speaks during an emergency meeting at the presidential office in Seoul, Sunday, where key government officials assessed the situation and deliberated on strategies in response to Iran's airstrike on Israeli territory. Courtesy of the presidential office 윤석열 대통령(왼쪽에서 세번째)이 일요일 서울 종로구 세종로 청와대에서 긴급회의를 열고 이란의 이스라엘 영토 공습에 따른 정부 주요 관계자들의 상황 평가와 대응 전략을 논의했다. 청와대 제공

President Yoon Suk Yeol convenes emergency meeting, vows to strengthen market monitoring
윤석열 대통령 긴급회의 소집, 시장감시 강화 약속

Objects are seen in the sky over Amman after Iran launched drones towards Israel, in Jordan, Sunday (local time), in this screenshot obtained from social media. Reuters-Yonhap 일요일(현지 시간) 이란이 요르단에서 이스라엘을 향해 무인기를 발사한 뒤 암만 상공에 떠 있는 모습이 소셜미디어를 통해 공개됐다. 로이터-연합

In response to growing global economic uncertainty prompted by Iran's airstrike on Israeli territory, the government plans to intensify its monitoring of financial markets, pledging a swift response if needed.
정부는 이란의 이스라엘 영토 공습으로 글로벌 경제 불확실성이 커지는 상황에 대응해 필요할 경우 신속한 대응을 약속하면서 금융시장에 대한 모니터링을 강화할 방침이다.

On Sunday, President Yoon Suk Yeol convened a meeting with key officials from the government, including Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok and Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, to assess the situation and deliberate on strategies in response to Iran's airstrike.
윤석열 대통령은 이날 최상목 재무장관, 조태열 외교부 장관 등 정부 주요 관계자들과 회의를 열고 이란 공습 상황을 점검하고 대응 전략을 논의했다.

"Please intensively operate a government-wide system to analyze and manage international oil prices, energy supply and supply chains," Yoon said. "Thoroughly assess the forecasts and risks to our economy and security, and develop tailored contingency plans to ensure we can respond swiftly and effectively to any unfolding situation."
윤 대통령은 "국제유가와 에너지 공급망을 분석하고 관리하는 범정부적인 시스템을 집중적으로 가동해 달라,"고 말했다.  "우리경제와 안보에 미치는 예측과 위험을 철저히 평가하고, 전개되는 상황에 신속하고 효과적으로 대응할 수 있도록 맞춤형 비상계획을 수립하라."

The government plans to enhance market monitoring while also ensuring reviews of the impacts on the real economy. The finance ministry will also undergo a comprehensive review of its contingency plan for a swift and effective response as needed.
정부는 시장 모니터링을 강화하는 동시에 실물경제에 미치는 영향에 대한 검토도 확실하게 할 계획이다. 재정부는 또 필요에 따라 신속하고 효과적인 대응을 위해 비상계획을 종합적으로 검토하기로 했다.

"In cases where external shocks lead to excessive volatility in the financial and foreign exchange markets, deviating from our economic fundamentals, the government will play its necessary role," Choi said during a separate meeting held within the ministry on the same day.
최 부총리는 이날 지경부 내에서 열린 별도 간담회에서 "외부충격이 금융, 외환시장의 과도한 변동성으로 이어져 우리 경제 펀더멘털에서 벗어나는 경우에는 정부가 필요한 역할을 할 것,"이라고 말했다.

The global economy could face a severe blow, according to experts, if Israel responds with stronger retaliation against Iran, and if Iran counters with another attack.
전문가들은 이스라엘이 이란에 대해 더 강력한 보복으로 대응하고, 이란이 또 다른 공격으로 맞대응할 경우 세계 경제가 심각한 타격을 입을 수 있다고 지적했다.

The disputes in the Middle East could place a significant burden on the Korean economy in particular, as they can stir up the already-high inflation by pushing up international oil prices. Such disputes also can delay central banks' reductions in policy rates, hindering economic recovery.
중동에서의 분쟁은 특히 국제 유가를 상승시킴으로써 이미 높은 인플레이션을 부추길 수 있기 때문에 한국 경제에 상당한 부담을 줄 수 있다. 이러한 분쟁은 또한 중앙은행의 정책 금리 인하를 지연시켜 경제 회복을 방해할 수 있다.

Domestic sectors including refining, shipping and construction are cautiously monitoring for any potential escalations.
정유, 해운, 건설 등 국내부문은 혹시 모를 사태가 벌어질지 조심스럽게 주시하고 있다.

Major domestic shipping firms, such as HMM, have been already rerouting their ships thousands of kilometers off their usual courses since last December following the Red Sea Crisis.
HMM 등 국내 주요 선사들은 이미 홍해 사태 이후인 지난해 12월부터 평소 운항하던 선박의 항로를 수천㎞ 변경하고 있다.

In the refining sector, while there may be short-term benefits from rising oil prices such as inventory gains, prolonged geopolitical risks could lead to an economic downturn and reduced demand.
정제부문의 경우 재고증가 등 유가 상승에 따른 단기적 이익이 있을 수 있지만 지정학적 리스크가 장기화되면 경기침체와 수요감소로 이어질 수 있다.

The construction industry, which has recently won several large-scale contracts in the Middle East, also faces uncertainties. Although the volume of projects directly undertaken in Israel or Iran is minimal, the potential for escalation could cause delays in projects in neighboring countries and increased construction costs due to rising prices of raw materials.
최근 중동 지역에서 여러 건의 대형 계약을 따낸 건설업계도 불확실성에 직면해 있다. 이스라엘이나 이란에서 직접 진행하는 프로젝트의 규모는 미미하지만, 확대 가능성은 주변국 프로젝트 지연과 원자재 가격 상승에 따른 공사비 증가를 야기할 수 있다.

Volatility in the domestic stock market is expected to rise as well. As global risk aversion increases, exacerbating the strong dollar phenomenon, this could significantly impact foreign capital flows into the domestic stock market.
국내 주식시장의 변동성도 함께 상승할 것으로 예상된다. 글로벌 리스크 회피도가 증가하면서 달러 강세 현상이 악화됨에 따라 이는 국내 주식시장으로 유입되는 외국인 자본에 상당한 영향을 미칠 수 있다.

"Uncertainties related to inflation, interest rates and oil prices have increased in the short term," said Kim Young-hwan, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities. "There's a likelihood that investment will focus on areas that are perceived as the most stable and clearest in the market."
김영환 NH투자증권 애널리스트는 "단기적으로 인플레이션, 금리, 유가 관련 불확실성이 커졌다"며 "시장에서 가장 안정적이고 명료하다고 인식되는 부분에 투자가 집중될 가능성이 있다"고 말했다.

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