Rising won-dollar exchange rate threatens corporate earnings 환율상승, 기업실적위협

[김우정]

우려대로 어제 원-달러 환율이 장중에 1,400원을 넘어 섰습니다.

원-달러 환율이 오르면(원화가치가 하락하면) 원유로 대표되는 수입물가가 오릅니다.

특히 외화부채가 많은 대한항공, 아시아나 항공등의 환차손이 커집니다.

기재부와 한은은 구두개입을 간화했지만 당분간 원화약세는 지속될 것으로 보입니다.

As feared, the won-dollar exchange rate exceeded 1,400 won during the day yesterday.

If the won-dollar exchange rate rises (if the won's value falls), import prices represented by the won will rise.

In particular, forex losses of Korean Air and Asiana Airlines, which have a lot of forex debt, will increase.

The Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Bank of Korea have simplified oral intervention, but the won is expected to continue to weaken for the time being.

Rising won-dollar exchange rate threatens corporate earnings
원-달러 환율상승, 기업실적 위협

By Anna J. Park 박안나 기자
Posted : 2024-04-16 16:44 Updated : 2024-04-16 21:27
Korea Times

Office buildings in Seoul / gettyimagesbank 서울의 오피스 빌딩 / 게티이미지 뱅크

Dollar value surpasses 1,400 won during Tuesday's trade
달러환율, 화요일 장중 1,400원대 돌파

The won-dollar exchange rate briefly surpassed the 1,400 won mark at one point during trade on Tuesday due to escalating global uncertainties, putting Korean businesses on high alert over potential refinancing risks and the threat of mounting foreign debt eroding future earnings.
화요일 거래 중에는 글로벌 불확실성이 고조되면서 원-달러 환율이 잠시 1,400원을 넘어섰다. 이에 따라 한국 기업들은 재금융 위험과 증가하는 외채로 인한 미래 수익의 침해에 대한 우려가 높아졌다.

This marks the highest level of the won-dollar exchange rate since November 2022. The exchange rate, based on closing prices, has only surpassed the 1,400 won mark on three occasions in history: during the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the global financial crisis in 2008, and the global interest rate hike shock in 2022. The sharp increase in the exchange rate raises significant concerns for Korean companies, particularly those whose foreign debts have been steadily mounting.
이는 2022년 11월 이후로 원-달러 환율이 가장 높은 수준을 기록한 것이다. 종가 기준으로 환율은 역사상 세 차례에 걸쳐 1,400원을 넘어섰는데, 이는 1997년 아시아 금융위기, 2008년 세계 금융위기, 그리고 2022년 세계적인 이자율인상 충격 때였다. 환율의 급격한 상승은 특히 최근 중동의 지정학적 불안이 심화되면서 더 큰 압력이 가해졌다.

The upward trajectory of the exchange rate can be attributed to favorable economic conditions in the U.S. However, in recent days, this trend has intensified as geopolitical instability in the Middle East has escalated, adding further pressure on the exchange rate.
환율의 상승 궤적은 미국의 양호한 경제 여건에 기인한다고 볼 수 있다. 그러나, 최근에는 중동지역의 지정학적 불안이 고조되면서 이러한 흐름이 더욱 심화되어 환율에 대한 압박이 가중되고 있다.

What is worrisome is the increase in external debt among Korean businesses over the past couple of years. External debt pertains to companies' financial obligations in foreign currencies, encompassing various forms of borrowings, liabilities, or bonds, typically requiring repayment predominantly in dollars or euros.
우려되는 것은 지난 2년간 우리나라 기업들의 대외채무 증가이다. 대외채무란 기업이 외화로 부담하는 금융채무를 말하며, 다양한 형태의 차입금, 부채 또는 채권 등이 포함되며, 일반적으로 달러나 유로로 상환해야 한다.

According to the latest data from the Bank of Korea (BOK), Korea's non-bank companies had a combined external debt of approximately $162.6 billion as of the end of last year. This marked a 5.6 percent increase compared to 2022. Corporate external debt has been rising steadily each year, reaching $142.96 billion at the end of 2021 and $154.28 billion at the end of 2022.
한국은행의 최근 자료에 따르면, 한국의 비은행 기업들은 작년 말 기준으로 총 대외채무가 약 1,626억 달러에 달한다. 이는 2022년 대비 5.6% 증가한 수치이다. 기업의 대외채무는 2021년 말 1,429억 6,000만 달러, 2022년 말 1,542억 8,000만 달러를 기록하는 등 매년 꾸준히 증가하고 있다.

Short-term foreign currency debt with a maturity of one year or less totaled $16.5 billion, accounting for approximately 10 percent of corporate foreign borrowings. The remaining 90 percent of the debt is categorized as longer-term obligations, with maturities extending beyond one year.
만기가 1년 이하인 단기외화부채는 총 165억 달러로 기업 외채의 약 10%를 차지한다. 나머지 90%의 부채는 만기가 1년 이상인 장기채무로 분류된다.

Given that corporate external debt with longer-term maturities has been increasing annually, coupled with soaring exchange rates, the rising foreign currency debt is forecast to have a negative impact on earnings.
최근 환율 급등과 맞물려 만기가 더 긴 기업 대외채무가 매년 증가하고 있다는 점을 감안하면 외화채무 증가는 실적에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 전망된다.

A public monitor at a money exchange in Seoul shows the won-dollar rate temporarily surpassing the 1,400 mark on Tuesday. Yonhap 서울의 한 환전소에 설치된 공개 모니터에 의하면 원-달러 환율이 일시적으로 1,400선을 돌파했다. 연합

By company, foreign currency debt held by major players, such as SK hynix, LG Energy Solution, Asiana Airlines, and POSCO Future M amounted to 29.73 trillion won, 8.69 trillion won, 5.29 trillion won, and 928 billion won, respectively, as of the end of last year. SK hynix's net profit could plummet by approximately 332.1 billion won if the won-dollar exchange rate was to rise by 10 percent.
기업별로는 SK하이닉스, LG에너지솔루션, 아시아나항공, 포스코퓨처M 등 주요 기업이 보유한 외화부채가 지난해 말 기준 각각 29조7300억원, 8조6900억원, 5조2900억원, 9280억원에 달한다. 원-달러 환율이 10% 상승할 경우 SK하이닉스의 순이익은 약 3,321억원 급감할 수 있다.

Companies that rely heavily on raw material imports, such as battery manufacturers, or those with significant foreign borrowing, are expected to face the direct impact of interest rate pressure stemming from the soaring exchange rate.
배터리 제조업체 등 원자재 수입 의존도가 높은 기업이나 외국인 차입 규모가 큰 기업은 환율 급등에 따른 금리 압박의 직접적인 영향을 받을 것으로 보인다.

Against this backdrop, the finance ministry and the central bank stepped up their verbal interventions, Tuesday, saying they are "closely monitoring the movements of the exchange rate and the supply of foreign currency with heightened caution."
이런 상황에서 기획재정부와 한은은 화요일 "환율과 외화 공급의 움직임을 주의 깊게 관찰하고 있다."며 구두개입을 강화했다.

Market experts anticipate that the volatility of the won-dollar exchange rate will escalate in the near future, prompting companies to devise plans to mitigate the shock.
시장전문가들은 조만간 원-달러 환율의 변동성이 확대될 것으로 보고 기업들이 충격완화 방안을 강구하고 있다.

"As long as the factors stimulating a strong dollar persist, global exchange rate volatility is expected to continue," Kim Ho-jung, an analyst at Yuanta Securities, pointed out, adding that a significant decline in the won-dollar exchange rate in the short term seems highly unlikely.
김호정 유안타증권 애널리스트는 "달러 강세를 자극하는 요인이 지속되는 한 글로벌 환율 변동성은 지속될 것으로 보인다,"며 단기적으로 원-달러 환율의 큰 폭 하락 가능성은 높아 보인다고 지적했다.

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