BOK rate cut elusive amid high oil prices, plunging won 고유가,원화약세속 기준금리인하불투명

[김우정]

이창용 한은 총재의 기자회견에서 기준금리 인하가 불투명한 것으로 말했습니다.

글로벌 원자재 특히 원유가격급등, 원화급락, 인플레이션 지속 등이 주요원인 입니다.

특히 유가의급등이 원화의 가치하락과 연관 되어 가장 큰 관심사 입니다.

유가가 배럴당 100달러 이상이 되면 원화환율이 1,400원을 넘고 기준금리인하는 더욱 지연될 것으로보입니다.

BOK rate cut elusive amid high oil prices, plunging won
고유가와 원화약세속에 한은의 기준금리 인하 불투명

By Lee Kyung-min 이경민 기자
Posted : 2024-04-23 16:25 Updated : 2024-04-23 17:31
Korea Times

Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong speaks during a presser at the bank headquarters in Seoul, April 12. Yonhap 이창용 한국은행 총재가 4월 12일 서울 본부에서 기자회견을 하고 있다. 연합

The prospect of a key rate cut by the Bank of Korea (BOK) is dimming, clouded by global commodity prices volatility, plunging Korean currency and slowing disinflation, market watchers said Tuesday.
한국은행의 기준금리 인하 전망이 글로벌 원자재 가격 변동성과 원화 급락, 인플레이션 둔화 등으로 흐려지고 있다고 시장 전문가들이 화요일 밝혔다.

Anchoring the pessimism are elevated oil prices amid fears of wider war in the Middle East and consequent spike in import prices and shipping costs.
비관론의 닻을 올린 것은 중동에서의 전쟁확대와 그에 따른 수입가격과 운송비의 급등에 대한 우려 속에 높아진 유가이다.

Equally concerning is the accelerated depreciation of the Korean won. It sank to the 1,400-won range against the greenback last week, buffeted by the strong dollar amid global risk-off sentiment fanned by the recently escalated hostilities between Israel and Iran.
마찬가지로 걱정되는 것이 원화의 절하 가속화이다. 최근 이스라엘과 이란 간의 적대감으로 부채질된 세계적 위험 회피 심리 속에 달러 강세에 힘입어 지난 주 달러 대비 1,400원 대까지 떨어졌다.

Experts say the extended oil price uncertainty will dent the country's current account surplus with the cost advantages of local exports significantly undermined.
전문가들은 유가 불확실성이 확대되면서 국내 수출의 원가 우위가 크게 훼손되면서 우리나라의 경상수지 흑자가 줄어들 것이라고 말한다.

The much-dreaded-yet-highly-probable scenario will fortify overall upward price trajectories, shaving off the country's GDP. This is a recipe for a perfect storm for the country's monetary authorities, forming grounds for delaying easing.
많이 공포스럽지만 아직 가능성이 높은 이 시나리오는 전반적인 가격 상승 궤도를 강화시켜 국내총생산(GDP)을 밀어낼 것이다. 이것은 통화당국에 완벽한 폭풍이 몰아칠 수 있는 방법이며, 완화를 지연시킬 수 있는 근거를 마련해 준다.

The central bank said in February that Korea is likely to see headline inflation edge down to 2.6 percent with $52 billion in the current account surplus this year, as premised on the global oil price staying at $82 per barrel level.
한은은 지난 2월 세계 유가가 배럴당 82달러 수준에 머물고 있다는 전제하에 올해 520억 달러의 경상수지 흑자로 헤드라인 인플레가 2.6%로 줄어들 가능성이 높다고 밝혔다.

BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong said during this month's policy meeting that a rate cut in the latter half will come under consideration, provided that the inflation in the July to December period averages 2.3 percent per month.
이창용 한은총재는 이번 달 정책회의에서 7월부터 12월까지의 물가상승률이 월평균 2.3%인 경우 하반기 금리인하가 검토될 것이라고 말했다.

However, new developments have taken shape since.
그러나 그 이후로 새로운 발전이 구체화되었다.

Korea's headline inflation came to 3.1 percent both in February and March, reversing months of below-3 percent stable movements. The April figures are expected to climb significantly.
한국의 헤드라인 인플레이션은 2월과 3월 모두 3.1%로 수개월간 -3% 미만의 안정적인 움직임을 되돌렸다. 4월 수치는 크게 상승할 것으로 예상된다.

Global oil prices surpassed $90, rattled by reports of Israel's retaliation against Iran on Friday (local time). The prices increased over 10 percent this year, including about a 3 percent jump last week.
금요일(현지 시간) 이스라엘의 대이란 보복 조치가 전해지면서 국제유가가 90달러를 돌파했다. 지난주 3%가량 오른 것을 비롯해 올해 들어 10% 넘게 오른 것이다.

The trajectory of Korean currency against the U.S. dollar is a factor behind rate cuts, according to Rhee, but the bigger question is about oil prices.
이 총재에 따르면 미국 달러화에 대한 한국통화의 궤도는 금리인하의 한 요인이지만 더 큰 문제는 유가에 관한 것이다.

"Whether the price would remain below $90 or climb further is of more concern," he said during a meeting with reporters in Washington on Thursday (local time).
그는 목요일(현지시간) 워싱턴에서 기자들과 만난 자리에서 "가격이 90달러 이하를 유지할지, 아니면 더 오를지가 더 관심사,"라고 말했다.

Analysts say BOK's timeline of rate cut will be pushed back at least about a couple of months, as indicated by Rhee's reserved stance calling for more confidence about disinflation.
애널리스트들은 한은의 금리인하 일정이 최소한 한 두 달 정도 뒤로 밀릴 것이라고 말하고 있는데 이는 디스인플레이션에 대한 자신감을 높여야 한다는 이 총재의 유보적인 입장에서 알 수 있다.

"The market has long expected the rate cut to come in July, but recent developments signal that the easing would come in around August," Meritz Securities researcher Yoon Yeo-sam said.
윤여삼 메리츠종금증권 연구원은 "시장에서는 오랫동안 금리 인하가 7월에 올 것으로 예상했지만 최근 상황은 8월쯤 완화가 들어올 것이라는 신호,"라고 말했다.

Hi Investment & Securities researcher Park Sang-hyun echoed this view, saying, "The Korean currency will crash to 1,400 won against the U.S. dollar if the oil price exceeds $100."
박상현 하이투자증권 연구원은 "유가가 100달러를 넘어서면 미국 달러화에 대한 원화 환율이 1400원대까지 추락할 것"이라고 전망했다.

"This is a major current account balance negative for Korea's central bank."
"이는 한국 중앙은행에 부정적인 주요 경상수지입니다."

#Ratecut금리인하 #Oilprices유가 #Koreancurrency원화 #Inflation인플레이션 #Globalcommodityprices세계원자재가격 #Disinflation디스인플레이션 #Currentaccountsurplus경상수지흑자 #GDP국내총생산 #Monetaryauthorities통화당국 #Exchangerate환율