바그너 그룹이 말리에서 대규모 손실을 입음

[위종민]

프리고진의 쿠데타 이후 바그너 그룹은 우러전쟁 전선에서 밀려나 아프리카에서 주로 활동하고 있는데, 말리에서 말리군과 함께 활동하던 바그너그룹이 7월 말 투아레그족 분리주의 반군과의 전투 과정에서 후퇴 중 알 카에다 연계조직인 JNIM ( Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin)의 기습으로 바그너 그룹의 전투원 80명, 말리군인 40명이 전사했다고 하네요. 프랑스가 십년 넘게 말리에 주둔하면서 손실한 인명이 59명이었다고 합니다. 

러시아는 국방부 예하에 아프리카 군단을 창설해 민간회사인 바그너 그룹을 통제하려고 하지만 여의치가 않다고 합니다. 

Wagner rout in Mali puts Russia on an African backfoot - Asia Times

Wagner rout in Mali puts Russia on an African backfoot - Asia Times

Wagner rout in Mali puts Russia on an African backfoot

Humiliating defeat to Mali rebels challenges African faith in Russian mercenaries as protectors and allies

by Christopher Michael FaulknerAugust 13, 2024

Wagner Group mercenaries are losing credibility in Africa after recent rout in Mali. Image: Twitter / Salika

While Russia’s army is bogged down in Ukraine, its mercenaries are faring no better in Africa.

In late July 2024, mercenaries from the Wagner Group, a Moscow-aligned private military company, accompanied the Malian army in what the Malian regime called a “stabilization operation” in the West African country’s northeastern town of Tinzaouaten, near the Algerian border.

That mission quickly went sideways when fighting broke out between that coalition and rebels from the Permanent Strategic Framework, an ethnically Tuareg separatist group. In retreat, Wagner and Malian forces were ambushed by militants from the al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM.

Upward of 80 Wagner personnel and over 40 Malian soldiers were reportedly killed in the fighting. Among the casualties was Nikita Fedyanin, who ran Wagner’s popular Telegram channel The Grey Zone.

While Tuareg rebels and JNIM were quick to celebrate their success, Mali and Wagner sought to downplay their losses.

And understandably so. The defeat in Tinzaouaten puts both the Wagner Group and Russia in a bind. It signals to African leaders the limits of having Moscow-backed mercenaries as a counterterrorism partner and regime protector, especially in a complex security environment such as Mali’s. But it also challenges Moscow’s strategy on the continent.

Since the death of Wagner’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in August 2023, Moscow has tried to take over the group’s operations by establishing the Africa Corps, a Ministry of Defense-controlled project designed to resemble Wagner. That project aims to bring Wagner fighters directly under the command and control of the Russian state.

But this has proven more challenging than Moscow anticipated and has complicated Russia’s plans to expand its partnerships across Africa via the offer of support from private military companies.

Wagner’s questionable reliability

Map showing location of Mali: Premium Times Nigeria

The Tinzaouaten incident was a major blow to Wagner, representing its largest known loss of life in Africa.

For context, over France’s nearly decade-long counterterrorism mission based in Mali, the French lost 59 soldiers. France’s approach to counterterrorism in Mali helped sow the seeds of military discontent that led to multiple coups between 2020 and 2021.

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It also laid the groundwork for Mali’s coup leaders to turn to Wagner rather than Paris for its security needs.

Since entering Mali in December 2021 – and especially after the death of Prigozhin – Wagner forces have been able to claim some successes. In November, Russian mercenaries helped the Malian army retake the city of Kidal, a separatist stronghold.

That success may have led to overconfidence: As the Tinzaouaten incident shows, there are very real security challenges across Mali. Wagner’s tactics, including indiscriminate violence and targeting civilians, are far from the most effective tools for addressing Mali’s security crises.

Though the Tinzaouten incident was Wagner’s largest known loss in Africa, it is not its first. Back in 2019, Wagner forces infamously overpromised and underdelivered in a short-lived counterterrorism campaign in Mozambique.

In that case, Wagner lasted just a few months before withdrawing after it became apparent it was ill-equipped, underprepared and too dismissive of local Mozambican military partners.

Although the recent events in Mali are not analogous to that, Wagner’s abandonment of Mozambique may weigh on the minds of Mali’s junta leaders following the group’s latest setback.

Questions abound about whether Wagner or its successor, the Africa Corps, will remain invested in Malian security.

There is also the potential for increasing tension between the Malian army and its Russian partners over the security mission and who is calling the shots. In addition to testing that relationship now, it could also lead to friction and other problems down the road.

Moscow’s maneuvering

Russia has tried to assuage concerns in the aftermath of the Tinzaouaten attack. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov contacted his Malian counterpart to reaffirm Russia’s commitment to the country.

Russia’s engagement in Mali is far from altruistic. Mali is Africa’s fourth-largest producer of gold. Like Wagner, Moscow wants a piece of that market. In November 2023, Russia signed an agreement with Mali to construct the country’s largest gold refinery.

On the surface, it looks like this could be an economic boost for Mali, but the project’s timeline is unclear. The effort also has neocolonialist undertones, despite Russia’s rhetoric to the contrary.

There is, however, a scenario in which Wagner benefits from the latest setback. As several security experts of Africa’s Sahel region have noted, the losses may actually help bolster Wagner’s reputation with Mali’s military chiefs and the Malian population in general. A willingness to fight and die alongside partners is a strong signal.

For states like Mali that have long been wary of foreign intervention, Wagner’s willingness to get in the fight and take on missions that the French and Western security partners were unwilling to execute has resonated with parts of the population.

The setback for Wagner in Mali may benefit Moscow in another unexpected way. Days after the incident, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence insinuated that Ukraine may have played a role in providing intelligence to Tuareg groups.

That messaging – whether posturing or true – led Mali to cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine. Neighboring Niger quickly followed suit. Ukraine has since vehemently denied involvement.

Regardless, this dynamic illustrates the spillover in competition between Moscow and Kiev. Ukraine stands to benefit from Wagner’s failures in Africa, forcing Wagner clients to consider the value of their partnerships with Moscow. But as Mali’s reaction suggests, such efforts can clearly backfire.

Russia’s implausible deniability

Even so, for Russia, Wagner’s losses create more challenges than opportunities. Moscow may be on the hook for Wagner’s failures in Africa, especially as it seeks to supplant Wagner with the Africa Corps.

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Events like those that unfolded in late July can no longer be easily explained away by the Kremlin. As John Lechner, an expert on Wagner and Russian security, noted, Moscow has allowed the Wagner brand to live on in Mali, in part to give Russia cover for these types of security failures.

How long Moscow can continue that pageantry – denying that Wagner’s failures are Russia’s failures too, particularly with Mali’s government – is up for debate.

Despite the clear value that Mali’s junta saw in a contracting with Wagner, at some point the mission will need to scale up or events like those in Tinzaouaten could become more common. This is especially likely if the Malian army seeks to continue to expand the counterinsurgency mission.

Moscow surely doesn’t want to jeopardize its relationship with Mali’s coup leaders in the capital, Bamako. But it is also walking a delicate balance, wary of empowering the remnants of Wagner in any meaningful way that might lead the group to act out against Moscow’s interests in Africa and elsewhere.

Moreover, grand ambitions to recruit tens of thousands of Africa Corps personnel have reportedly fallen woefully short, limiting Moscow’s options.

So while the Tinzaouaten incident offers a glimpse into Mali’s very challenging security environment, it also highlights the limits of hitching your wagon to Russian mercenaries – be they under the banner of Wagner or reformed under Russia’s Africa Corps.

Christopher Michael Faulkner is an assistant professor of national security affairs in the College of Distance Education, US Naval War College.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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프랑스나 러시아가 말리에 눈독을 들이는 이유는 금 때문이겠죠?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Mali#Gold

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