베트남 의존에서 벗어나고 있는 캄보디아

[위종민]

캄보디아 정부가 9월 캄보디아 - 라오스 - 베트남 개발 삼각지대(CLV-DTA; Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Area)라는 3국간 경제협력기구에서 탈퇴를 발표하고 의회가 11월 8일 탈퇴를 승인했다고 하네요. 

베트남은 1979년부터 1989년까지 캄보디아에 군사적 개입을 통해 크메르 루주 정권을 붕괴시킨 후 캄보디아의 해방자이자 압도적인 보호자로서의 관계를 형성하고 있었습니다만, 캄보디아는 서서히 베트남 의존을 벗어나고 있다고 하네요. 

Cambodia's soft but sure break from big brother Vietnam - Asia Times

Cambodia’s soft but sure break from big brother Vietnam

Cambodia’s withdrawal from Vietnam-led triangle initiative signals shift toward more autonomy under new leader Hun Manet

by Chandarith Neak and Chhay LimNovember 12, 2024

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet is breaking away from traditional patron Vietnam. Image: X Screengrab

The Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Area (CLV-DTA) has long epitomized the commitment of these three Southeast Asian nations to shared growth and regional integration.

Over two decades, the CLV-DTA has facilitated development projects and cross-border investments aimed at fostering mutual understanding and prosperity.

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However, Cambodia’s recent decision to withdraw from the three-way initiative marks a pivotal turning point, signaling a move toward greater strategic autonomy in Phnom Penh. This move reflects Cambodia’s determination as a small state to reclaim its agency amidst complex regional dynamics and sensitivities.

The departure serves two primary purposes: enhancing domestic legitimacy for Prime Minister Hun Manet’s administration and signaling to the international community that Cambodia is opening a new era of independent foreign policy.

Vietnam-Cambodia relations are colored by a complicated history of colonialism, conflict and intervention. Vietnam’s military involvement in Cambodia from 1979 to 1989, which served to end the killer Khmer Rouge regime, engendered mixed feelings of gratitude and resentment among Cambodians.

This intervention established a paternalistic dynamic, with Vietnam seen as both liberator and overbearing protector. Cambodia’s withdrawal from the CLV-DTA can thus be interpreted as a vital step in reasserting its sovereignty and recalibrating this “brotherly” yet often one-sided relationship.

At the core of Cambodia’s decision lies the issue of domestic legitimacy. Rising nationalist sentiments and public pressure against perceived entrenched Vietnamese influence have intensified demands for greater autonomy.

With social media and grassroots activism amplifying these voices, Cambodians are increasingly vocal about reclaiming their sovereignty and resisting perceived Vietnamese dominance. For new Prime Minister Hun Manet, the withdrawal presents an opportunity to bolster his image as a strong leader responsive to public sentiment.

The move also reflects the Hun Manet government’s commitment to more self-led economic development. A public fundraising campaign for new border infrastructure, which has already garnered US$27 million in pledges, is answering rising calls for more domestic-driven investment.

If successful, these ventures promise to build Hun Manet’s image as a capable and responsive reformer.

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Beyond domestic politics, the decision to withdraw also reveals a broader foreign policy dilemma: balancing the economic benefits of CLV-DTA participation with growing nationalist sentiments against Vietnamese influence in the Cambodian economy.

Cambodian diaspora protests against the CLV-DTA as a tool of Vietnamese hegemony have highlighted these anxieties, compelling the government to respond to calls for greater autonomy. Critics within Cambodia have asserted that the CLV-DTA compromises national independence and facilitates Vietnamese encroachment on Cambodian territory.

This rising sentiment carries significant implications for Cambodia’s foreign policy strategy and its approach to regional partnerships and cooperation frameworks. In this context, Cambodia’s withdrawal from the CLV-DTA can be viewed as a “smart hedger.”

As a smart hedger, Cambodia seeks to balance relationships with multiple powers to optimize its interests while mitigating risks. By distancing itself from a Vietnam-dominated framework, Cambodia is actively exploring closer ties with major powers and other Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members, thereby reducing overreliance on any single power.

This shift enables the country to manage its national interests with greater flexibility, reflecting a domestic political maneuver aimed at both quelling internal dissent and reinforcing the government’s position – as articulated by former Prime Minister Hun Sen – to “disarm the oppositions.”

This strategic pivot is exemplified by Cambodia’s increasing investment in projects like the China-backed Funan Techo Canal, which has significant implications for Cambodia’s economy and relationship with Vietnam.

While designed to enhance trade routes and reduce Cambodia’s dependence on Vietnamese southern ports for its trade, the canal symbolizes a crucial shift in Cambodia’s assertiveness to drive its own development path, albeit in this instance with Chinese backing.

In this context, the proclaimed “ironclad friendship” with China can be seen as a cultivated effort to enhance strategic autonomy as a small state and redefine its economic relationship with the wider region in pursuit of upper-middle-income status by 2030 and high-income status by 2050.

The question now is: what lies ahead after CLV-DTA withdrawal? For one, the prevailing argument that Cambodia-China relations will come at the expense of Vietnam may be overblown. Protecting sovereignty and peaceful coexistence with neighboring countries are core values in Cambodia’s foreign policy.

Rather than seeking to undermine Vietnam, Cambodia is committed to a diplomatic approach that emphasizes mutual respect and cooperation. This is evident in Phnom Penh’s soft approach to neighborhood diplomacy, which prioritizes dialogue and understanding over confrontation.

The recent Greater Mekong Subregion Summit, where both Cambodia and Vietnam actively participated, underscores the fact that Cambodia and Vietnam continue to cooperate within broader regional frameworks.

Indeed, Cambodia’s withdrawal from the CLV-DTA does not intend to downgrade relations with Vietnam, but rather reflects a broader diversification of its foreign policy strategy.

This diversification allows Cambodia to strengthen existing partnerships, including with Vietnam, while consolidating ties—notably with China, the US, Japan, Australia, South Korea—in line with its “strengthening old friends, making new friends” approach.

Moreover, the CLV-DTA countries have agreed to meet on the sidelines of high-level multilateral meetings such as ASEAN summits and other multilateral forums.

This will provide a platform for the three neighbors to continue collaborating on mutual interests, ensuring that their partnership remains strong despite evolving individual foreign policy dynamics.

In this direction, Cambodian leaders have also consistently reassured their Vietnamese counterparts about development projects that have caused concern, including not least the China-backed canal. This gesture reflects Cambodia’s aim to calm any potential tensions that may unnecessarily arise from mismanaged nationalist sentiments.

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After all, Vietnam remains one of Cambodia’s top five foreign direct investors, with Vietnamese enterprises holding 205 active projects in the country and a total registered capital of $2.94 billion. Cambodia ranks second among the countries and territories where Vietnam invests, while Vietnam is Cambodia’s second-largest export destination, following the United States.

Ultimately, Cambodia’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and its legitimate development rights deserve respect and recognition. As noted by one prominent Vietnamese scholar, the strategic autonomy of individual states is essential for fostering peaceful coexistence in the Indochina sub-region, especially in a rapidly evolving regional landscape.

Cambodia’s withdrawal from the CLV-DTA crystallizes Prime Minister Hun Manet’s rhetoric of “breathing through our own nose” while showcasing his recalibrated foreign policy. As a smart hedger, Cambodia aims to reduce dependence on any single neighbor, particularly one that could be perceived as a potential threat.

Guided by the legacies of former Prime Minister Hun Sen and the aspirations of Hun Manet, this move effectively strengthens domestic legitimacy while affirming foreign policy autonomy.

By prioritizing national interests and responding to domestic sentiments, Cambodia asserts itself as a sovereign actor, shaping its own path toward development and regional cooperation.

Dr. Chandarith Neak is the director of Institute for International Studies and Public Policy (IISPP) of Royal University of Phnom Penh (RUPP).

Chhay Lim is a Monbukagakusho-MEXT scholar at Ritsumeikan University in Japan. He is concurrently serving as a visiting fellow at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies of the Royal University of Phnom Penh in Cambodia and as a young leader at Pacific Forum, a think tank based in Hawaii, United States. 

NA approves cancellation of agreement on trade promotion - Khmer Times

Khuon Sudary, President of the National Assembly, presides over the session of the National Assembly on Friday. KT/Khem Sovannara

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The National Assembly (NA) on Friday approved the cancellation of the Agreement on Trade Promotion and Facilitation for the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Area. This agreement, part of the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle (CLV-DTA), was originally announced for withdrawal by the government on September 20 this year.

The government decided to cancel the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Trade Promotion and Facilitation Agreement, after assessing the achievements of the close cooperation over the past 25 years under the CLV-DTA.

This cooperation has enabled the three countries to reach significant national milestones, contributing to economic development and improving the living standards of people in the region.

Based on these achievements, Cambodia believes that each country has the full potential to continue and ensure its own development moving forward.

Suos Yara, Chairman of the NA’s Committee on Foreign Affairs, Cooperation, and Information, reported on the findings of a study on the draft law for the cancellation of the Agreement on Trade Promotion and Facilitation.

Minister of Commerce Cham Nimul, representing the government at the NA session on Friday, explained that the government, through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Cambodia, informed the Laotian and Vietnamese sides about the withdrawal from the CLV-DTA on September 20, 2024. This led to the agreement to terminate the trade promotion and facilitation under the Memorandum of Understanding.

She added that in line with internal procedures, the government had drafted a law to approve the cancellation of the Agreement on Trade Promotion and Facilitation within the CLV framework.

She noted that the repealed agreement only covered trade promotion and facilitation in the four Cambodian provinces of Stung Treng, Kratie, Mondulkiri, and Ratanakiri that have international borders with Laos and Vietnam.

“Withdrawal from this agreement does not adversely affect or impede the normal course of trade between the three countries,” she said. “Cambodia can continue to trade as usual, as all three countries are members of the ASEAN Economic Community, which allows for the free flow of goods, services, capital, and investment.”

Government spokesman Pen Bona explained that the Cambodian government established the CLV-DTA Cooperation in 1999 without going through the NA, and the announcement of Cambodia’s withdrawal from the cooperation on September 20, 2024, did not require the NA’s approval. The government only needed to send a diplomatic notification to Laos and Vietnam.

He clarified that the agreement invalidated by the NA on Friday was specifically the Agreement on Trade Promotion and Facilitation within the CLV-DTA, not the broader Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Area Cooperation.

“When the government announced its withdrawal from the CLV-DTA, all related agreements were automatically invalidated. However, the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Trade Promotion and Facilitation Agreement, signed in 2018, had been approved by the NA, so it required parliamentary approval to be formally ended,” he said.

[백선호]

남베트남이 아직 살아있을 때 같은 편(?)인 베트콩과 크메르 루주가 서로 싸운 적이 있다고 하네요.

Vietnamese-Cambodian tensions are rooted in historical animosities, and reports of armed conflict between Viet Cong and Khmer Rouge forces date from the early 1970s, with bloody clashes definitely occurring by 1974, even while the war against the Lon Nol regime was still underway.

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1977-80v22/d23

[위종민]

나중에 중월전쟁도 벌어진 걸 보면 도미노 이론은 역시 틀린 이론이었네요.