자원 수출선 확보를 위해 해군이 필요한 카자흐스탄

[위종민]

카자흐스탄 GDP의 80%는 석유와 가스 수출에서 나오고, 이 물량의 90%는 러시아 영토를 통과하는 파이프라인을 통해 유럽으로 나가는데 러시아의 갑질에 시달리다보니 유조선이나 카스피해 해상 파이프라인 건설을 고려중이라고 하네요. 이 경우 카자흐스탄의 SLOC 보호를 위해 최소한의 현존함대(fleet-in-being) 건설이 필요하고, 순항미사일로 무장한 초계함과 ISR 시스템, 배회탄약으로 그런 능력을 갖출 수 있다고 주장합니다. 

카스피해는 북서쪽-서쪽은 러시아, 남쪽은 이란 수역인데 양국이 협력관계이고 러시아의 카스피해 함대가 해역 안에서 가장 큰 세력입니다. 카자흐스탄 해군은 미사일 고속정 2척, 순찰정 2척, 소해정 1척으로 구성돼 있다고 하네요. 

위키에 등재된 함정 목록은 저 정도는 아닌데 현행화가 안된 건지 아니면 실제 운용 가능한 전력이 저 정도인 건지. 

https://cimsec.org/the-caspian-challenge-a-fleet-in-being-for-kazakhstans-sea-lines-of-communication

The Caspian Challenge: A Fleet in Being for Kazakhstan’s Sea Lines of Communication

By Bakhtiyar Askaruly

Kazakhstan is the largest landlocked country, relying heavily on a resource-exporting economy, with the main route to international markets going through Russian territory.1 For many years, Kazakhstan did not experience any interruptions while exporting its resources, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine now challenges Kazakhstan’s economic and security stability. Russia has blocked Kazakhstan’s oil exports by shutting down a pumping station in the Black Sea port to draw Kazakhstan into its advantageous political stance vis-à-vis Ukraine. Kazakhstan is now exploring different routes for its resource exports. The Caspian Sea offers a promising option but will require sea lines of communication (SLOC). Kazakhstan should build a “Fleet in being” to protect its lines of communication, guaranteeing access to the Caspian Sea.2

80 percent of Kazakhstan’s GDP comes from oil and gas exports.3 90 percent of those oil exports go to European markets through Russian territory via pipelines.4 Kazakhstan’s reliance on energy exports places the country in a vulnerable position that is now being exploited by Russia. In 2022, Russia shut down oil transportation several times in response to Kazakhstan’s chosen foreign policy. On March 20, 2022, high seas in the Black Sea allegedly damaged the oil pumping station, but under nefarious circumstances. During the two-week disruption, Kazakhstan lost up to 300 million dollars in revenues.5 Before this event, reports surfaced that Kazakhstan chose not to send troops to Ukraine to fight alongside Russian forces.6 On June 20, 2022, Russia shut off its oil pumping station in the Black Sea a second time due to discovered malfunctions. The second disruption coincided with Kazakhstan’s Presidential announcement of non-recognition of Russian-occupied Ukraine territories on June 17, 2022.7 The third interruption occurred on July 6 when a Russian local court halted exports under the guise of an oil spill.8

In response to the oil export interruption, on July 7 Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev urged the development of alternative routes for oil export. He directed a study to examine the construction of an underwater pipeline and the use of an oil tanker fleet in the Caspian Sea.9 Similar proposals for an underwater pipeline took place in the 1990s but remained blueprints and mockups. In the 1990’s U.S. companies undertook the Transcaspian gas pipeline project, which was aimed to transport gas from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and later from Kazakhstan to European markets. The Clinton administration created a new position in the State Department for Caspian gas and oil projects. In turn, Russia appointed two high-level government representatives to address the Caspian issues. Moscow also agreed with Iran for strategic energy cooperation in the region, meant to block any efforts for a trans-Caspian pipeline not under Russia’s control or influence.10 Both countries used the unresolved status of the Caspian Sea to impede any further development of energy transfer options.

A map depicting energy infrastructure and deposits in the Caspian Sea. (Graphic via U.S. Energy Information Administration)

In 2018, the Caspian Convention regional countries signed a pact to exclude Russian and Iranian vetoes over a trans-Caspian gas pipeline.11 This new legal status for the Caspian Sea allows Kazakhstan to diversify its oil export transit options. This project’s completion remains uncertain due to Russia’s opposition. Another option for Kazakhstan is to build a tanker fleet and expand port capabilities. In the future, a Caspian oil tanker fleet could move up to 30 percent of oil exports through the Caspian Sea.12 However, oil tankers in the Caspian remain vulnerable to adversaries’ provocations without appropriate protection offered by the Corbettian concept of a “Fleet in Being,” providing security to a friendly fleet, and defending against unwarranted attacks.

The military balance of power in the Caspian Sea is shared between five countries: Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. Russia holds “local command” of the Caspian Sea with its relatively significant fleet for this isolated body of water. The Russian Caspian flotilla consists of 28 warships, including two guided missile frigates, eight corvettes, four patrol boats, seven minesweepers, six landing craft, and a gunboat.13 Iran’s fleet comprises one frigate, two corvettes, and ten patrol boats. Azerbaijan possesses one frigate, four submarines, and dozens of patrol boats. Kazakhstan’s fleet comprises two missile boats, two patrol boats, and one minesweeper. Turkmenistan’s fleet is even smaller.

Kazakhstan’s present naval fleet remains inferior compared to the top threat. Russian and Iranian cooperation further compromises Kazakhstan’s already precarious position. Kazakhstan’s fleet only patrols the littorals and provides security for offshore oil extraction.

In the face of new challenges, namely developing new export routes through the Caspian Sea, Kazakhstan should build a “Fleet in Being” to ensure the denial of adversaries. The main task of Kazakhstan’s fleet should be focused on quick reaction to any provocation on its SLOCs, which are approximately 300 kilometers in length. This could be resolved by three to five corvettes and dozens of smaller high-speed boats with effective firepower, such as anti-ship cruise missiles. More significantly however, a naval buildup might stimulate further militarization and an arms race in the Caspian Sea. To mitigate these risks surface ships numbers should be enough to present a credible threat, but appear defensive.

The missile boat Mangystau of Kazakhstan’s Naval Forces arrives in Baku, Azerbaijan. (Photo by Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Azerbaijan)

To ensure that any adversary’s action in the sea would be defeated, Kazakhstan might acquire ISR systems and loitering munitions. This capability combination proved effective in the second Nagorno-Karabakh War.14 ISR systems such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) would be able to provide locations of ships and targeting information, while loitering munitions could deliver precision strikes, similar to current operations in Ukraine. The main requirements for such platforms can include UAVs that are able to operate beyond an adversary’s effective range while being able to relay the target’s location. Loitering munitions should feature enough explosives to cripple a corvette-sized vessel. For instance, the Harop drone could be used as a loitering munition designed to locate and strike with 23 kg of high explosive. It also can be safely landed and relaunched.15

The combination of UAVs and loitering munitions can avoid an unnecessary arms race in the Caspian Sea. It is also cheaper to acquire and maintain them. Another advantage of this combination is that they can be used in other tasks in different locations. Loitering munitions can be operated in low altitudes above the sea surface, making them highly survivable. They can an effective range of 1,000 km and 9 hours of flight endurance.16 Units that operate this system could train in any location in the vast steppe of Kazakhstan. In concert with the abovementioned ship capabilities, they can also provide a credible deterrent.

Conclusion

In the face of geopolitical challenges, Kazakhstan is positioned to diversify its oil exports through the Caspian Sea. However, the country’s naval power might not be able to provide secure lines of communication since it was designed to patrol seashore and offshore oil production, more like the functions of a coast guard. To ensure SLOC security, Kazakhstan should build a “Fleet in being.” That capability could consist of additional corvettes armed with cruise missiles, as well as ISR systems and loitering munitions. This combination promises to be an effective deterrent while not provoking an arms race in the Caspian Sea.

Bakhtiyar Askaruly is a pseudonym for a military officer of a Central Asian nation.

References

1. https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/kazakhstan-transport-and-logistics (accessed 4-30-2023)/

2. Sir Julian S. Corbett, Some Principles of Maritime Strategy (Annapolis MD: Naval Institute Press Reprint, 1988), 165. This passage describes what is meant by this term, a force than can “dispute” command of the sea.

3. https://oec.world/en/profile/country/kaz#:~:text=Yearly%20Trade,-%23permalink%20to%20section&text=The%20most%20recent%20exports%20are,and%20Germany%20(%243.82B) (accessed 4-30-2023)…

4. https://russianstudiesromania.eu/2022/07/23/russia-could-stop-the-transit-of-kazakh-oil-to-europe/ (accessed 4-30-2023).

5. https://tengrinews.kz/kazakhstan_news/uscherb-ot-avarii-na-ktk-nazval-ministr-finansov-466764/ (accessed 4-30-2023).

6. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/russia-ukraine-live-updates-n1289976/ncrd1289985#liveBlogCards (accessed 4-30-2023.

7. https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-russia-frictions-over-ukraine-war-go-public (accessed 4-30-2023).

8. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-court-suspends-oil-flows-through-caspian-pipeline-2022-07-06/ (accessed 4-30-2023).

9. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kazakhstan-needs-diversify-oil-supply-routes-tokayev-says-2022-07-07/ (accessed 4-30-2023).

10. Fiona Hill, “Pipelines in the Caspian: Catalyst or Cure-all?” Georgetown Journal of International Affairs (Winter/Spring 2004): 17.

11. Robert M. Cutler, The Trans-Caspian Is a Pipeline for a Geopolitical Commission, Energy Security Program Policy Paper No. 1 (March 2020: NATO association of Canada).

12. https://astanatimes.com/2023/03/kazakhstan-on-its-way-to-oil-supply-diversification/ (accessed 4-30-2023).

13. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2021/august/caspian-flotilla-russias-offensive-reinvention

14. John Antal, 7 Seconds to Die, (Oxford, UK: Casemate Publisher, 2022).

15. Ibid.

16. Ibid.

Featured Image: A Russian Navy Caspian Flotilla warship fires a Kalibr-NK cruise missile during naval drills. (Photo via Russian Ministry of Defense)

Kazakh Naval Forces - Wikipedia

[백선호]

아제르바이잔같은 나라를 통해서 자원을 팔아야겠네요.

[위종민]

https://cafe.daum.net/NTDS/50q9/2776

아제르바이잔 바쿠 항구를 통한 수출을 모색하고 있기는 하네요. 악타우-바쿠 (거리가 370km 가량이네요.) 간을 유조선이나 파이프라인으로 연결해서 러시아 통하지 않는 수출선을 확보하고 싶을 것 같습니다.