Korean economy expected to grow 2.5% this year 해외 반도체 수출 반등으로 2.5% 성장 전망

[김우정]

어제 열린 한은 금통위에서 기준금리를 11차례 3.5%로 동결했습니다.

올해 경제전망은 반도체 수출호조로 2.1%에서 2.5%로 상향 조정했습니다.

금통위원 7명중 1명만이 금리인하를 주장했고 이총재를 제외한 5명은 향후 3개월간 금리동결을 주장했습니다.

전문가들은 8월에 미국 연준의 금리인하후 한국은 10월에 금리인하를 할 것으로 전망합니다.

Korean economy expected to grow 2.5% this year on chip export rebound: BOK
한국경제, 올해 반도체 수출 반등으로 2.5% 성장 전망: 한국은행

By Lee Kyung-min 이경민 기자
Posted : 2024-05-23 17:13 Updated : 2024-05-23 22:16
Korea Times

Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong speaks during a press conference at the bank headquarters in Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap 이창용 한국은행 총재가 목요일 서울 중구 은행 본점에서 기자회견을 갖고 발언하고 있다. 연합

 


Exact timing of rate cut in H2 becomes increasingly uncertain: Rhee
하반기의 정확한 금리 인하 시기는 점점 불확실: 이총재

The Korean economy is projected to grow 2.5 percent this year on stronger-than-expected exports, buoyed by favorable external conditions, the central bank said, Thursday.
한국경제는 우호적인 대외 여건에 힘입어 예상보다 강한 수출에 힘입어 올해 2.5%의 성장률을 기록할 것으로 목요일 전망했다.

The outlook is up from February’s forecast of 2.1 percent.
이 전망은 지난 2월 전망치인 2.1%보다 상향 조정된 것이다.

The Bank of Korea (BOK) maintained the key rate at 3.5 percent for the 11th consecutive session, citing persistently high inflation.
한국은행은 지속적으로 높은 인플레이션을 이유로 기준금리를 3.5%로 11회 연속 유지했다.

The central bank revised its growth estimate to 2.5 percent, underpinned by Korea’s unexpected quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.3 percent in the January-March period.
한은은 1~3월 한국의 예상치 못한 전분기 대비 1.3% 성장에 힘입어 성장률 추정치를 2.5%로 수정했다.

“The economy is expected to improve at a favorablepace, as indicated by strong export growth amid an upturn in the IT sector and the recovery of major economies. The growth trajectory of consumption is likely to show an upward trend,” BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong said during a press conference at the bank headquarters in Seoul.
이창용 한은총재는 이날 서울 중구 은행회관에서 기자간담회를 갖고 "정보기술(IT) 부문의 호조와 주요국 경기의 회복에 따른 수출 증가세가 나타나면서 양호한 속도로 경기가 개선될 것으로 예상된다. 소비 증가세는 상승세를 보일 것으로 보인다,"고 말했다.

He said the first-quarter growth, which beat a market estimate of 0.6 percent, was backed by robust net exports, as outbound shipments surged faster with energy imports declining sharply due to warm winter months.
그는 따뜻한 겨울로 인해 에너지 수입이 급격히 감소하면서 아웃바운드 출하량이 더 빠르게 급증했기 때문에 시장 예상치인 0.6%를 상회한 1분기 성장이 견조한 순수출에 힘입어 뒷받침되었다고 말했다.

But the BOK said second-quarter growth is likely to slow down due to dwindling construction investments, a slowdown in consumption and lower contributions from net exports. "The economy will bounce back in the second half,” Rhee said.
그러나 한국은행은 2분기 성장이 건설투자 감소, 소비 둔화, 순수출 기여 감소 등으로 둔화될 가능성이 높다고 말했다. 이 총재는 "하반기에는 경제가 반등할 것"이라고 말했다.

The central bank left its inflation forecast at 2.6 percent for this year.
중앙은행은 올해 물가상승률 전망치를 2.6%로 유지했다.

“Inflation remains elevated due to stronger growth and the depreciation of the Korean won, but further upward price pressure is mitigated by the extension of a fuel tax cut,” he said.
그는 "인플레이션은 성장세 강화와 원화가치 하락 등으로 상승 기조를 유지하고 있지만 유류세 인하 연장으로 추가 상승 압력이 완화되고 있다"고 말했다.

 
11th consecutive rate freeze
11회 연속 금리 동결

Meanwhile, the seven-member monetary policy board left the key rate unchanged at 3.5 percent in a unanimous decision.
한편 7명으로 구성된 금융통화위원회는 만장일치로 기준금리를 3.5%로 동결했다.

Excluding Rhee, five of the board members maintain the rate should remain unchanged for the next three months, whereas one called for a dovish pivot. “The dovish stance of one member reflects concerns about a slower-than-desired recovery in private consumption, warranting consideration for a preemptive rate cut,” he said. “The other five members are aware of prolonged volatility despite deflationary pressure.”
이 총재를 제외한 5명의 이사는 향후 3개월간 금리를 동결해야 한다고 주장한 반면 1명은 비둘기파적인 방향전환을 요구했다. 그는 "한 위원의 비둘기파적 입장은 민간소비 회복이 기대보다 더디다는 우려를 반영한 것으로, 선제적 금리 인하에 대한 고려가 필요하다"며 "나머지 5개 위원은 디플레이션 압력에도 불구하고 변동성이 장기화되고 있다는 점을 인식하고 있다."고 말했다.

The volatility factors are the monetary policy path of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the pace of IT industry growth, global oil prices and currency fluctuations. Dave Chia, associate economist at Moody’s Analytics said the much-anticipated rate cut will come no earlier than August. If inflation or household debt increases, a rate cut may not occur until the fourth quarter.
“Much will depend on when the U.S. Fed cuts rates,” he said. “Recent strong economic data from the U.S. has pushed back expectations of a rate cut in that market."
변동성 요인은 미국 연방준비제도의 통화정책 경로, IT 산업 성장 속도, 글로벌 유가 및 환율 변동 등이다. 무디스 애널리틱스(Moody's Analytics)의 데이브 치아(Dave Chia) 부 이코노미스트는 기대를 모았던 금리 인하가 이르면 8월에 이뤄질 것이라고 말했다. 인플레이션이나 가계부채가 늘어나면 금리 인하는 4분기에나 이뤄질 수 있다. 그는 "미국 연준이 언제 금리를 인하하느냐에 따라 많은 것이 좌우될 것"이라며 "최근 미국발 경제지표 호조로 해당 시장의 금리 인하 기대가 뒤로 밀렸다"고 말했다.

A premature rate cut by the BOK could widen the interest rate differential with the U.S., putting more pressure on the country’s currency, he added.
한은의 섣부른 금리인하는 미국과의 금리차를 확대시켜 자국 통화에 더 큰 부담을 줄 수 있다고 그는 덧붙였다.

“The won has depreciated about 5 percent against the greenback this year. With inflation still elevated, the BOK is not ready to cut rates.”
"원화 가치는 올해 들어 달러화 대비 약 5% 하락했다. 인플레이션이 여전히 상승하고 있기 때문에 한국은행은 금리를 인하할 준비가 되어 있지 않다."

Park Chong-hoon, a director at Standard Chartered Bank Korea, said the BOK will not cut rates before the Fed, in light of the continuously high prices of goods and services. “Growth in the first quarter was a definite source of surprise,” he said. “The U.S. rate path remains unclear. That coupled with inflation not slowing down fast enough to usher in a rate cut will factored into the BOK's rate dynamics,” he said.
한국 스탠다드차타드은행의 박종훈 이사는 상품과 서비스 가격이 계속 높은 점을 감안해 한은이 연준 이전에 금리를 인하하지는 않을 것이라고 말했다. 그는 "1분기의 성장은 분명한 놀라움의 원천이었다"고 말했다. 그는 "미국의 금리 경로는 여전히 불분명하다. 인플레가 금리 인하를 가져올 정도로 빠르게 둔화되지 않는 것과 합쳐지면 한은의 금리 역학관계가 고려될 것"이라고 말했다.

The global financial service provider projects the BOK rate cut will come in October.
이 글로벌 금융회사는 한국은행의 금리 인하가 10월에 있을 것으로 예상하고 있다.

“The BOK will prioritize price stabilization for the time being and maintain the current hawkish stance,” he said.
그는 "한은은 당분간 물가 안정을 우선시하고 현재의 매파적 기조를 유지할 것"이라고 말했다.

#BankofKorea(BOK)한국은행 #economicgrowth경제성장 #exports수출 #inflation인플레이션 #interestrate금리 #monetarypolicy통화정책 #ITsector정보기술(IT)부문 #constructioninvestments건설투자 #privateconsumption민간소비 #currencyfluctuations환율변동