Uncertainty delayed BOK easing 높은 차입비용속의 불확실성이 한은의 금융완화를 지연

[김우정]

ASEAN과 한국, 일본중국의 경제연구소의 수석이코노미스와 한국경제에 대한 인터뷰기사입니다.

한국경제는 1분기의 1.3% 깜짝 성장에도 불구하고 남은기간 불확실성에 직면해 있다고 평가했습니다.

가계부채가 GDP의 99%롤 지역평균 60% 대비 높고 기업부채도 GDP 대비 158%로 높습니다.

저소득가구와 영세 건설사들에 대한 PF대출은 시스템적인 위험을 초래하지는 않을 것으로 전망합니다.

(INTERVIEW) Uncertainty looms amid high borrowing costs, delayed BOK easing: AMRO chief
AMRO 수석 이코노미스트: 높은 차입비용속의 불확실성이 한은의 금융완화를 지연

By Lee Kyung-min 이경민 기자
Posted : 2024-06-01 09:24 Updated : 2024-06-01 09:24
Korea Times

Hoe Ee Khor, chief economist of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) / Courtesy of AMRO 회이호 아세안+3 거시경제연구실(AMRO) 수석 이코노미스트 / AMRO 제공

Household debt continues to hamper private consumption
가계부채, 계속적으로 민간소비 방해
 
The Korean economy faces uncertain growth momentum for the remainder of 2024, despite a surprise 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarter growth in the first three months of this year, the chief economist at the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said.
아세안+3 거시경제연구실(AMRO)의 수석 이코노미스트는 "한국 경제는 올해 3월까지 전분기 대비 1.3%의 깜짝 성장에도 불구하고 2024년 남은 기간 동안 불확실한 성장 모멘텀에 직면해 있다"고 말했다.

A pick-up in private consumption, construction investment and resilient export growth led to the stronger-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Korea, AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor said. However, elevated borrowing rates due to the delay in Bank of Korea (BOK) rate cuts and household debt will continue to pose a drag on private consumption, already hamstrung by the slower-than-expected disinflation and the recent depreciation of the won. The troubled construction sector will largely remain clouded by lingering challenges from project financing loans, as reflected in last year's decline in housing construction starts. This will affect construction activity in the near term, in his view.
호이호 AMRO 수석 이코노미스트는 "민간소비와 건설투자, 수출증가세가 회복되면서 한국의 국내총생산(GDP) 성장률이 예상보다 호조를 보였다"고 말했다. 다만 한국은행(BOK) 금리 인하 지연과 가계부채 등으로 높아진 차입금리는 예상보다 부진한 물가상승과 최근 원화가치 하락에 발목이 잡힌 채 민간소비의 발목을 계속 잡을 것으로 보인다. 작년의 주택건설 착공 감소에서 보듯이 곤경에 빠진 건설업계는 프로젝트 파이낸싱 대출로 인한 여전한 도전으로 인해 대체로 흐려질 것이다. 그의 견해로는 이는 단기적으로 건설 활동에 영향을 미칠 것이다.

"The only bright side for Korea is the near-term sustained export momentum dependent upon the firm demand for semiconductors,” he said in an interview with The Korea Times. Among key factors that will influence the timing of the BOK’s rate cuts are the strength of domestic demand and the trajectory of global oil prices and further delays in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy rate cuts.
그는 코리아 타임즈와의 인터뷰에서 "한국에 유일하게 밝은 면은 반도체에 대한 확고한 수요에 의존하는 단기적인 지속적인 수출 모멘텀"이라고 말했다. 한은의 금리 인하 시기에 영향을 미칠 핵심 요소 중에는 내수의 강세와 세계 유가의 궤적, 그리고 미국 연방준비제도의 정책 금리 인하 추가 지연 등이 있다.

The volatile Korean won is another factor. The won has fluctuated against the dollar in the range of 1,350-1,400 won per dollar since April this year, propelled by the dollar's global strength.
변동성이 큰 것도 한 요인이다. 올해 4월 이후 글로벌 달러 강세에 힘입어 원화는 달러당 1,350~1,400원대에서 등락을 거듭하고 있다.

“The combination of mentioned factors can push back the BOK easing,” he said.
그는 " 언급된 요인들이 복합적으로 작용하면 한은은 금융완화를 뒤로 미룰 수 있다"고 말했다.

AMRO is an international organization seeking to secure the macroeconomic and financial resilience and stability of its 14 member economies. Included are the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as well as China, Hong Kong, Japan and Korea.
AMRO는 14개 회원국의 거시경제 및 금융 복원력과 안정성 확보를 추구하는 국제기구이다. 동남아시아국가연합(ASEAN)의 10개 회원국을 비롯해 중국, 홍콩, 일본, 한국 등이 포함돼 있다.

Khor is responsible for overseeing and developing the work on macroeconomic and financial market surveillance of ASEAN+3 member economies. Prior to joining AMRO, he was a deputy director of the Asia and Pacific department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), responsible for overseeing the surveillance work on six ASEAN and 12 Pacific Island countries. He obtained his bachelor’s degree in economics/mathematics from the University of Rochester and a Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University. Below is the full interview conducted with him.
Khor는 ASEAN+3 회원국의 거시경제 및 금융시장 감시업무를 감독하고 개발할 책임이 있다. AMRO에 가입하기 전에, 그는 국제통화기금(IMF)의 아시아 태평양 담당 부국장으로 아세안 6개국과 태평양 섬 12개국에 대한 감시업무를 담당했다. 그는 로체스터 대학에서 경제/수학 분야에서 학사학위를, 프린스턴 대학에서 경제학 박사학위를 취득했다. 아래는 그와의 인터뷰 전문이다.

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Q. What is your assessment of Korea's debt-to-GDP ratio? How much of an effort does Korea need to make to curb the growth of government, household and corporate debt?
문) 한국의 국내총생산(GDP) 대비 부채비율에 대한 당신의 평가는 어떠한가? 정부, 가계, 기업 부채 증가를 억제하기 위해 한국이 얼마나 노력해야 하는가?


A. As far as household debt is concerned, Korea ranks high in the region, at 98.9 percent of GDP as of Q1 this year, compared to the regional average of around 60 percent of GDP.
답) 가계부채에 관한 한 한국은 금년 1분기 기준으로 GDP의 98.9%로 국내총생산(GDP) 대비 지역 평균이 약 60%인 것과 비교할 때 이 지역에서 높은 순위를 차지하고 있다.

While the delinquency rate for household loans is relatively low, at 0.4 percent in February this year, it has been steadily increasing over the past year on the back of elevated borrowing costs.
가계대출 연체율이 상대적으로 낮은 가운데 올해 2월 0.4%를 기록했지만 차입비용 상승에 힘입어 지난 1년간 꾸준히 증가하고 있다.

Similarly, Korea’s corporate debt is higher than the regional average, at 157.6 percent of GDP compared to around 140 percent of GDP for the region.
마찬가지로 한국의 기업 부채는 GDP의 157.6%로 지역 평균인 GDP의 약 140% 보다 높은 수준이다.

The delinquency rate for business loans has been on an upward trend since around mid-2022, standing at 0.6 percent in February this year, driven largely by small- and medium-sized enterprises loans.
사업자대출 연체율은 중소기업 대출이 큰 영향을 미쳐 올해 2월 0.6%를 기록한 2022년 중반 이후 상승세를 보이고 있다.

While the financial sector remains sound and adequately equipped with buffers to withstand some further deterioration in credit quality, relatively high debt burden for both the household and corporate sectors may continue to weigh on private consumption and investment, posing a drag on growth in the near to medium term.
금융부문이 건실하고 신용 품질의 일부 더 악화를 견딜 수 있는 완충 장치를 적절하게 갖추고 있는 반면, 가계와 기업 부문 모두의 상대적으로 높은 부채 부담은 민간 소비와 투자에 계속 부담을 주어 단/중기적으로 성장에 걸림돌이 될 수 있다.

As for government debt, Korea’s debt-to-GDP ratio jumped from 37.6 percent in 2019 to 50.4 percent in 2023.
정부부채에 대해서는 한국의 GDP 대비 부채 비율이 2019년 37.6%에서 2023년 50.4%로 급증했다.

Although the ratio is relatively lower than that of most other advanced economies, its persistent upward trajectory over the medium term is worrisome, given fiscal needs related to social protection and healthcare that are set to rise rapidly due to population aging.
이 비율은 대부분의 다른 선진국에 비해 상대적으로 낮지만 인구고령화로 인해 빠르게 증가할 것으로 예상되는 사회보호 및 의료 관련 재정 수요를 고려할 때 중기적으로 지속적인 상승 궤도는 우려스럽다.

As such, steadfast commitment towards fiscal consolidation is vital, and, in our view, enacting legislation of a fiscal rule is one of the measures that can help ensure fiscal sustainability over the long term.
이와 같이 재정 건전화를 위한 확고한 의지는 필수적이며, 우리의 관점에서 재정준칙 제정은 장기적으로 재정의 지속 가능성을 확보하는 데 도움이 될 수 있는 조치 중 하나이다.

Q. An increasing number of low-income earners and small construction firms are defaulting on their loans, fanning financial stability concerns. What is your assessment of the status quo? What are the ways to induce a soft landing of such vulnerabilities?
문) 저소득층과 영세 건설사들이 대출을 연체하는 사례가 늘면서 금융안정 우려가 커지고 있습니다. 현 상황에 대한 평가는 어떤가? 이런 취약성의 연착륙을 유도할 수 있는 방안은 무엇인가?

A. An uptick in defaults among low-income households and small construction firms is unlikely to pose a systemic risk to Korea's financial stability, largely because these borrowers account for a small portion of total loans from financial institutions.
답) 저소득 가구와 영세 건설사들의 채무 불이행 증가는 한국의 금융 안정에 시스템적인 위험을 초래하지 않을 것인데, 이는 주로 이들 대출자들이 금융 기관으로부터의 총 대출에서 차지하는 비중이 작기 때문이다.

Moreover, the majority of bank borrowers are from medium- to high-income brackets, with substantial savings and financial assets. However, pockets of risk remain within low-income households and small construction firms, which are the primary borrowers of small non-bank financial institutions.
더욱이 은행 대출자의 대다수는 저축과 금융자산이 상당한 중/고소득층이다. 그러나 소규모 비은행 금융기관의 1차 대출자인 저소득 가구와 소규모 건설사 내부에는 위험의 주머니가 남아 있다.

Regarding the soft-landing of PF lending, we commend the authorities for the measures announced on May 13 that improve the eval‎uation of the financial viability of borrowers and introduce different policy responses to viable and non-viable borrowers.
PF대출의 연착륙과 관련하여 지난 5월 13일 발표된 차주의 재정생존가능성 평가를 개선하고, 생존가능 차주와 비생존 차주에 대한 상이한 정책적 대응을 도입한 조치에 대해 당국을 칭찬한다.

We also agree that loan restructuring programs should be continued only for viable developers, with the focus on helping them navigate current economic challenges while ensuring the financial soundness of lending institutions.
우리는 또한 대출 구조조정 프로그램이 대출 기관의 재무건전성을 보장하면서 현재의 경제문제를 해결하는 데 초점을 두고 실행 가능한 개발자들만을 위해 지속되어야 한다는 데 동의한다.

Meanwhile, financial institutions should write off loans to non-viable borrowers.
한편, 금융기관은 비 생존 차주에 대한 대출을 손실처리해야 한다.

Authorities should coordinate with financial institutions to ensure an orderly liquidation of bad assets to prevent fire sales of collateral that can dampen overall market prices.
당국은 금융기관과 공조해 불량자산의 질서 있는 청산을 보장해 전반적인 시장가격을 위축시킬 수 있는 담보물의 급작스러운 매각을 막아야 한다.

Financial institutions highly exposed to weak borrowers should set aside more loan loss reserves and liquidity buffers.
취약차주에 많이 노출된 금융기관은 대출손실준비금과 유동성 완충장치를 더 많이 적립해야 한다.

#Highborrowingcosts높은차입비용 #Uncertainty불확실성 #DelayedBOKeasing한은의금융완화지연 #Privateconsumption민간소비 #Householddebt가계부채 #GDPgrowthGDP성장 #Constructioninvestment건설투자 #Exportgrowth수출증가세 #Koreanwonvolatility원화변동성 #Fiscalconsolidation재정건전화