건조 중 침몰한 중국 핵추진 잠수함이 포착 (수정: 핵추진이 아니라 재래식 잠수함)

[위종민]

중국의 신형 SSN인 저우급이 건조중인 우한 근교의 조선소에서 침몰한 사진이 민간 위성사진에 찍혔습니다. 미 국방부 고위 관리가 지난 주 목요일이 이 사실을 확인했네요. 

침몰 시기는 5월~6월로 보이며, 사진에는 인양을 위한 크레인도 포착됐습니다. 침몰 시기 잠수함에 핵연료가 실려 있었는지, 또는 원자로가 가동중이었는지는 확인되지 않았지만 방사능 방출 사례는 보고되지 않았습니다. 

신형 SSN이라고 하는데 위키 등지에는 아직 저우급에 대한 자세한 내용은 실려있지 않네요. 

Chinese nuclear attack submarine sank during construction, US says (defensenews.com)

Chinese nuclear attack submarine sank during construction, US says

Chinese nuclear attack submarine sank during construction, US says

By Tara Copp and Jon Gambrell, The Associated Press

 Sunday, Sep 29, 2024

This satellite image from Planet Labs PBC shows what appears to be a sunken Chinese submarine at a shipyard near Wuhan, China, on June 15, 2024. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)

Satellite imagery showed that China’s newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank alongside a pier while under construction, a senior U.S. defense official said Thursday.

The sinking of China’s first Zhou-class submarine represents a setback for Beijing as it continues to build out the world’s largest navy. Beijing has become increasingly assertive in pursuing its claim to virtually the entire South China Sea, which is crucial to international trade.

Meanwhile, China faces longtime territorial disputes involving others in the region including Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam. The United States has sought to strengthen ties to its allies in the region and regularly sails through those waters in operations it says maintain the freedom of navigation for vessels there, angering Beijing.

The submarine likely sank between May and June, when satellite images showed cranes that would be necessary to lift it off the bottom of the river, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to provide details about the submarine loss.

China has been building up its naval fleet at a breakneck pace, and the U.S. considers China’s rise one of its main future security concerns.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Friday he was not familiar with the topic and did not provide any information when asked about it at a Beijing press conference.

The U.S. official said it was “not surprising” that China's navy would conceal it. The submarine's current status is unknown.

The identification of the sunken nuclear submarine was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.

Thomas Shugart, a former U.S. Navy submariner and an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, first noticed the incident involving the submarine in July, though it wasn’t publicly known at the time that it involved the new Zhou-class vessel.

Satellite images from Planet Labs PBC analyzed by The Associated Press show what appears to be a submarine docked at the Shuangliu shipyard on the Yangtze River before the incident.

An image taken June 15 appears to show the submarine either fully or partially submerged just under the river’s surface, with rescue equipment and cranes surrounding it. Booms surround it to prevent any oil or other leaks from the vessel.

A satellite image taken Aug. 25 shows a submarine back at the same dock as the submerged vessel. It's not clear if it was the same one.

It remains unclear if the affected submarine had been loaded with nuclear fuel or if its reactor was operating at the time of the incident. However, there has been no reported release of radiation in the area in the time since.

China as of last year operated six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, six nuclear-powered attack submarines and 48 diesel-powered attack submarines, according to a U.S. military report.

News of the submarine’s sinking comes as China this week conducted a rare launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile into international waters in the Pacific Ocean. Experts say it marked the first time Beijing had conducted such a test since 1980.

Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

우창 조선소의 위치

[Minowski(김유철)]

핵잠이 아닐거라는 분석도 존재하더군요.

비밀에도 미니 핵잠이 아닐거라는 분석이 있네요... https://bemil.chosun.com/nbrd/bbs/view.html?b_bbs_id=10158&branch=&pn=1&num=6491

[위종민]

041급이 핵잠이 아니라 039형의 확대형이라는 얘기도 있네요. ( https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2024/10/chinas-sunken-nuclear-sub-was-likely-nothing-sort/400001/ )

[강준구]

우한은 내륙에 위치해 있고, 바다로 연결된 강도 찾기 어려워 보입니다. 모듈 정도를 건조하는 게 아닌 이상, 저런 내륙에서 잠수함을 건조하는 것은 좀 이해하기 어렵네요. 저 위치가 아닐듯 합니다.

[위종민]

상하이나 대련이 아니라 우한이라는 게 좀 이상하긴 합니다. 양자강 따라 떠내려 보낼 것도 아니고..

[ssn688]

>a senior U.S. defense official said Thursday.
익명이지만 이렇게 달고 나온 점이 마음에 걸리네요. 미국도 1969년 조선소 부두에 계류되어 있던 (의장공사중)원잠이 밸브 이상으로 침수-침몰된 사례가 있었습니다. (먼 산) ; 얕은 바다를 위한 작은 잠수함 발상이 터무니 없다기에는... 해상자위대 일부 제독은 3천톤도 너무 크다고 1800톤대가 다시 필요하다는 주장도 했죠.

[위종민]

서해에서 활동하기엔 사실 4천톤급도 많이 큰 것 같습니다. 상하로 기동공간이 거의 안 나올 것 같은데..

[ssn688]

최열 예비역 대령님이 결국 다루셨네요. https://youtu.be/ncJQ0t3AyFI?si=Y3Yd4HL6qpTd-w49
중국은 보조원자로 AIP 잠수함도 연구하긴 했다는 점에서 신형 SSN보다는 원급의 다른 개량형일 가능성(뉴스에 대한 평가는 Probable)으로 보시네요. ; 그런데 최초 워싱턴포스트 보도나, 그걸 소개하는 TWZ 보도에도 "hybrid"란 언급이 있었습니다. 그런데 타 매체 인용으로 갈수록 그냥 SSN이 되어버렸나 보네요. 원자로 실은 걸 왜 우창에서 건조하냐는 의문에 대한 답은 될 수 있는데, 그걸 어디에 쓰려고?가 여전히 남네요. ; 예전에 해상자위대 일부에서 작은 잠수함 소요를 언급한 글을 다시 찾아보니, 배수량보다 선체길이가 기준(80m를 넘냐 안 넘냐)이었습니다. 이 물건이 039A 그대로라면 76m, 위성사진 기반 추산에는 80m 이상(85?)도 있긴 했습니다.

[위종민]

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htsub/articles/202411010831.aspx#google_vignette

이 포스트에서도 핵잠이 아니라 X자형 잠항타를 장비한 AIP 잠수함 ( = 원급 개량형)이라고 하네요. 저 곳엔 핵잠 건조시설이 없다고.. "Initially it was believed the 041 used a nuclear reactor. Then someone realized that the shipyard the 041 was being built in was not equipped to install nuclear reactors."