Federal Reserve sees just 1 rate cut in 2024 연준, 2024년에 1차례 금리인하 계획

[김우정]

미국연준이 올해에 1차례만 금리인하를 할 계획이라고 발표했습니다.
2~3달 전만해도 올해 안에 2회 이상 금리인하를 할 것이라는 것이 대세였습니다.
이러한 발표는 물가는 완만하게 하락세를 보이지만 고용은 강세를 유지하고 있기 때문입니다.
미 연준의 입장변화에 따라 한은도 올해 한차례이상 금리를 내리기는 어려워 보입니다. 
 
Federal Reserve sees progress on inflation but envisions just 1 rate cut in 2024
연준, 인플레이션에 진전있지만 2024년에 1차례 금리인하 계획

(AP)
Posted : 2024-06-13 06:26 Updated : 2024-06-13 06:30
Korea Times

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, June 12. AP-Yonhap 제롬 파월 연준의장이 6월 12일 워싱턴 연방준비제도이사회에서 가진 기자회견에서 연설하고 있다.  AP-연합

Federal Reserve officials said Wednesday that inflation has fallen further toward their target level in recent months but signaled that they expect to cut their benchmark interest rate just once this year.
연방준비제도이사회(FRB) 관계자들은 최근 몇 달간 인플레이션이 목표 수준을 향해 더 떨어졌지만 올해는 단 한 차례만 기준금리를 인하할 것으로 예상한다는 신호를 보냈다고 19일(현지시간) 밝혔다.

The policymakers' forecast for one rate cut was down from a previous forecast of three, because inflation, despite having cooled in the past two months, remains persistently elevated.
정책 입안자들이 한 차례 금리 인하를 전망한 것은 지난 두 달 동안 냉각되었음에도 불구하고 인플레이션이 지속적으로 상승하고 있기 때문이다.

In a statement issued after its two-day meeting, the Fed said the economy is growing at a solid pace, while hiring has “remained strong.” The officials also noted that in recent months there has been “modest" further progress toward their 2 percent inflation target. That is a more positive assessment than after the Fed's previous meeting May 1, when the officials had noted a lack of progress.
이틀간의 회의 후 발표된 성명에서 연준은 고용은 "강한 상태를 유지"한 반면 경제는 견조한 속도로 성장하고 있다고 밝혔다. 이 관리들은 또한 최근 몇 달간 2%의 물가 목표를 향해 "약간의" 추가 진전이 있었다고 언급했다. 이는 관리들이 진전이 없다고 언급했던 5월 1일 연준의 이전 회의 이후보다 더 긍정적인 평가이다.

Still, the central bank made clear Wednesday that further improvement is needed.
하지만 중앙은행은 수요일 추가 개선이 필요하다는 입장을 분명히 했다.

“We’ll need to see more good data to bolster our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference after the Fed meeting ended.
제롬 파월 의장은 연준 회의가 끝난 뒤 기자회견에서 "인플레이션이 2%로 지속가능하게 이동하고 있다는 자신감을 강화하기 위해 더 많은 좋은 데이터를 봐야 할 것"이라고 말했다.

The policymakers, as expected, kept their key rate unchanged at roughly 5.3 percent. The benchmark rate has remained at that level since July of last year, after the Fed raised it 11 times to try to slow borrowing and spending and cool inflation. Fed rate cuts would, over time, lighten loan costs for consumers, who have faced punishingly high rates for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and other forms of borrowing.
정책입안자들은 예상대로 기준금리를 약 5.3 퍼센트로 동결했다. 기준금리는, 미 연준이 차입과 지출을 둔화시키고 인플레이션을 낮추려고 노력하기 위해 11차례 인상을 단행한 이후인 작년 7월부터 그러한 수준을 유지하고 있다. 연준의 금리인하는, 시간이 흐르면서, 주택담보대출과 자동차대출, 신용카드 및 그 밖의 형태의 차입에 대해 처벌상 높은 금리에 직면해 있는 소비자들의 대출비용을 가볍게 해줄 것이다.

The officials' rate-cut forecast reflects the individual estimates of 19 policymakers. The Fed said eight of the officials projected two rate cuts. Seven projected one cut. Four of the policymakers envisioned no cuts at all this year.
이 당국자들의 금리인하 전망은 19명의 정책입안자들의 개별적인 예상치를 반영한 것이다. 연준은 이 당국자들 중 8명이 두 차례의 금리인하를 예상했다고 밝혔다. 7명은 한 차례의 인하를 예상했다. 정책입안자들 중 4명은 올해는 전혀 인하가 없을 것으로 예상했다.

“What everyone agrees on,” Powell said at his news conference, is that the Fed's timetable for rate cuts is "going to be data-dependent.”
파월 의장은 기자회견에서 "모두가 동의하는 것은 연준의 금리 인하 시간표가 "데이터에 의존하게 될 것"이라고 말했다.

The Fed’s latest projections are by no means fixed in time. The policymakers frequently revise their plans for rate cuts — or hikes — depending on how economic growth and inflation evolve over time.
연준의 최근 전망은 결코 시간적으로 고정된 것이 아니다. 정책입안자들은 경제성장과 인플레이션이 시간에 따라 어떻게 전개되느냐에 따라 금리인하 혹은 인상을 위한 계획을 수시로 수정한다.

On Wednesday morning, the government reported that inflation eased in May for a second straight month, a hopeful sign that an acceleration of prices that occurred early this year may have passed. Consumer prices excluding volatile food and energy costs — the closely watched “core” index — rose just 0.2 percent from April, the smallest rise since October. Measured from a year earlier, core prices climbed 3.4 percent, the mildest pace in three years.
수요일 아침, 정부는 5월 물가 상승률이 두 달 연속 완화되었다고 발표했는데, 이는 올해 초 발생했던 물가 상승 가속화가 지났다는 희망적인 신호이다. 면밀히 관찰되는 핵심 지수인 변동성 있는 식료품 및 에너지 비용을 제외한 소비자 물가는 4월에 비해 0.2% 상승하는데 그쳐 10월 이후 가장 작은 상승폭이었다. 1년 전에 비해 측정된 근원물가는 3.4% 상승으로 3년 만에 가장 완만한 속도를 보였다.

“We welcome today’s reading and hope for more like that," Powell said.
파월 의장은 "우리는 오늘의 해석을 환영하며 더 많은 것을 희망한다"고 말했다.

Stock prices jumped and bond yields fell Wednesday morning after the government reported the milder-than-expected inflation data — and didn't budge much even after the Fed's policymakers projected fewer rate cuts for 2024 than the market had expected.
수요일 아침 정부가 예상보다 가벼운 인플레이션 데이터를 발표한 후 주가가 급등하고 채권 수익률이 하락했다. 연준의 정책 입안자들이 시장이 예상했던 것보다 2024년 금리 인하폭이 적을 것으로 예상했음에도 불구하고 큰 꿈쩍도 하지 않았다.

Though inflation has tumbled from a peak of 9.1 percent two years ago, it remains too high for the Fed's liking. The policymakers now face the delicate task of keeping rates high enough to slow spending and defeat high inflation without derailing the economy.
물가상승률은 2년 전의 최고치인 9.1%에서 폭락했지만, 연준이 선호하는 바로는 여전히 너무 높은 수준이다. 정책입안자들은 이제 지출을 둔화시키고, 경제를 탈선시키지 않으면서도 높은 물가상승률을 물리칠 수 있을 정도로 금리를 높게 유지해야 하는 민감한 과제에 직면해 있다.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference following a Monetary Policy Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., on June 12. AFP-Yonhap 제롬 파월 미국 연방준비제도 의장이 12일 워싱턴 연방준비제도이사회에서 열린 금융통화위원회 회의 후 기자회견에서 발언하고 있다. AFP-연합

The central bank’s rate policies over the next several months could also have consequences for the presidential race. Though the unemployment rate is a low 4 percent, hiring is robust and consumers continue to spend, voters have taken a generally sour view of the economy under President Joe Biden. In large part, that’s because prices remain much higher than they were before the pandemic struck. High borrowing rates impose a further financial burden.
향후 몇 달간 중앙은행의 금리 정책은 대선 레이스에도 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 비록 실업률이 4%로 낮고, 고용이 견조하며 소비자들이 지출을 계속하고 있지만, 유권자들은 조 바이든 대통령 하에서 경제에 대해 전반적으로 좋지 않은 견해를 가지고 있다. 상당 부분, 그것은 가격이 팬데믹이 닥치기 전보다 훨씬 높은 수준을 유지하고 있기 때문이다. 높은 차입 금리는 추가적인 재정적 부담을 부과한다.

Inflation had cooled steadily in the second half of last year, raising hopes that the Fed could achieve a rare “soft landing,” whereby it would manage to conquer inflation through rate hikes without causing a recession. But inflation came in unexpectedly high in the first three months of this year , delaying hoped-for Fed rate cuts and potentially imperiling a soft landing.
인플레이션은 작년 하반기에도 꾸준히 식어왔기 때문에, 연준이 보기 드문 '연착륙'을 달성할 수 있을 것이라는 기대감이 높아졌고, 이를 통해 연준이 경기침체를 일으키지 않고 금리인상을 통해 인플레이션을 극복할 수 있을 것이라는 기대감이 높아졌다. 하지만 올 1분기 들어 예상치 못하게 인플레이션이 높아져서, 연준이 기대했던 금리인하를 지연시키고 연착륙을 위협할 가능성도 있다.

Last month, Christopher Waller, an influential member of the Fed’s Board of Governors, said he needed to see “several more months of good inflation data” before he would consider supporting rate cuts. Though Waller didn’t spell out what would constitute good data, economists think it would have to be core inflation of 0.2 percent or less each month.
지난 달, 연방준비제도이사회의 영향력 있는 위원인 크리스토퍼 월러는 금리 인하를 지지하는 것을 고려하기 전에 "수개월간의 양호한 인플레이션 자료"를 봐야 한다고 말했다. 월러는 양호한 자료가 무엇인지에 대해 설명하지는 않았지만, 경제학자들은 근원 인플레이션이 매달 0.2% 이하가 되어야 할 것으로 생각하고 있다.

Asked at his news conference about the eventual need for rate cuts, Powell said, "We think ultimately if you set (interest rate) policy at the restrictive level, eventually you will see real weakening in the economy.”
파월 의장은 이날 기자회견에서 궁극적인 금리 인하 필요성에 대한 질문에 "우리는 (금리) 정책을 제한적인 수준에서 설정하면 결국 경제가 실질적으로 약화되는 것을 보게 될 것이라고 생각한다."고 말했다.

Though the economy has managed to keep growing despite the high rates the central bank has engineered, the Fed chair said that “ultimately, we think rates will have to come down to continue to support that. So far, they haven’t had to.”
중앙은행이 설계한 높은 금리에도 불구하고 경제는 계속 성장할 수 있었지만 연준 의장은 "궁극적으로 우리는 그것을 계속 지원하기 위해 금리를 내려야 할 것이라고 생각한다. 지금까지 그들은 그럴 필요가 없었다"고 말했다

As part of the updated quarterly forecasts the policymakers issued Wednesday, they projected that the economy will grow 2.1 percent this year and 2 percent in 2025, the same as they had envisioned in March. They expect core inflation to be 2.8 percent by year's end, according to their preferred gauge, up from a previous forecast of 2.6 percent. And they project that unemployment will stay at its current 4 percent rate by the end of this year and edge up to 4.2 percent by the end of 2025.
수요일 정책입안자들이 발표한 최신 분기별 전망의 일환으로 그들은 금년에는 2.1 %, 2025년에는 2%의 경제성장을 할 것으로 예측했는데 이는 지난 3월에 상정했던 것과 동일한 수치이다. 그들은 선호하는 지표에 따르면 금년 말까지 근원인플레이션은 2.8 %가 될 것으로 예상했는데 이는 이전 전망치인 2.6 %보다 상승한 것이다. 그리고 그들은 금년 말까지 실업률이 현재의 4 %에 머물고 2025년 말에는 4.2%까지 상승할 것으로 예측하고 있다.

The expectation that the unemployment rate will remain around those low levels indicates that the officials believe that while the job market will gradually slow, it will remain fundamentally healthy.
실업률이 낮은 수준을 유지할 것이라는 기대는 고용시장이 점차 둔화되겠지만 근본적으로 건재할 것이라는 것을 의미한다.

“By so many measures,” Powell said, "the labor market was kind of overheated two years ago, and we’ve seen it move back into much better balance between supply and demand.” (AP)
파월 의장은 "2년 전만 해도 노동시장은 과열 양상을 보였는데 우리는 노동시장이 다시 수요와 공급의 균형 상태로 돌아가는 것을 목격했다."고 말했다. (AP)

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