(Feb 10, 2019) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

[kyonmanchung]

(Feb 10, 2019) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

안녕하세요? 설 잘 쇠셨죠?

미-중간 무역전쟁이 해결 되기도 전에 미-EU간 자동차 무역분쟁이 새로 부상하고 있고, EU는 Facebook에 대해 독점금지법을 근거로 영업 규제에 나섰습니다. 미국 주가가 지난 주후반 약간 조정 받았지만 올들어 7% 이상 상승하였는데 향후 어떨지요?.

1. Trade war headlines could get much worse before they get better as the US looks to Europe, CNBC

- 미-중 무역전쟁이 완화되기도 전에 미-EU간 무역전쟁이 악화될 조짐(another battle is brewing)입니다.

다음주 미국 무역대표부장관 및 재무장관 등이 Beijing을 방문, 무역협상에 들어가지만 현재로서는 입장차이가 커서 Deal성사 난망(few signs of deal is near) -> 3월1일 deadline을 넘기더라도 당분간 관세 추가인상(10%->25%) 없이 협상을 진행할 것으로 관측하네요.

한편, 유럽산 자동차에 대한 25% 관세 부과가 새로운 issue로 등장하고 있음. 미 상무성은 2월17일 발표하는 보고서(report on auto imports and national security)를 통해 유럽산 자동차에 대한 관세 부과를 제안하고, 그로부터 90일이내에 25% 관세 부과조치가 가능하리라는 것.

Trump는 자동차 관세부과를 유럽(특히 독일)이 다른 사안들에서 미국에 협조하게하는 수단으로 이용 가능(auto tariffs as a way to get the EU to cooperate on other matters). EU는 미국산 농산물 등에 대한 관세 부과로 대응하겠지만 수세 -> 미-EU자동차협상이 어떻게 진행될지 두고 봐야 하겠지만, 부품을 제외한 완성차에 25% 관세부과가 유력하다고 UBS가 전망하네요.

<생각>

완고한 Trump’s America First에 비추어 무역전쟁 확산 위험성이 큼 -> 정부와 기업의 현명한 대응이 필요 -> 남북한 문제도 America First입장에서 접근(과거와 달리 우방을 돕는다는 생각은 거의 없는 듯)

2. Europe is beginning to break up Facebook's business, CNN Business

- Europe이 미국 Facebook사의 영업을 억제하는 작업을 시작했군요.

지난 목요일 독일의 반독점금지원(Germany's antitrust office)은 Facebook이 자회사인 Instagram, WhatsApp및 관련회사 websites를 통해 얻는 정보 data를 통합함으로써 시장의 독점적 지위를 남용하였다고 판정하였음.

즉 Facebook사의 거대한 광고 사업이 자사 및 관련 자회사 이용자들의 정보 data들을 취합 활용한 것인데, 이러한 정보data의 집중이 독점금지법에 저촉되므로 향후 이러한 영업 관행을 중지하라는 것.

유럽의 최고 반독점 기구인 European Commission은 독일의 이번 결정을 즉시 받아들였으며, 유사한 조사를 거쳐 독점금지법 위반을 판정할 경우 회사 매출액의 최고 10%까지 벌금 처분이 가능함.

<SNS사업에 대한 규제의 변화>

Social Network Service업의 수익 모델은 network servicing이 아니고, network 참여자들의 개인정보를 분석 활용한 광고 사업임. SNS 사업에 대해 종전에는 개인정보 보호(privacy침해)를 근거로 규제를 하다가, 이제 정보의 집중에 의한 독점금지법 위반을 근거로 규제를 시작하기 시작한다는 의미가 있음.

당연히 미-EU간 무역 전쟁과 연관해서 생각해야 하겠죠.

3. After climbing to start 2019, the stock market comeback is on hold – here's why, CNBC

- (작년 10월이후 약세를 보이던) Dow and S&P 500 주가지수는 올해 들어 지난 6주간7% 이상(작년 12월24일이후로는 10%이상) 각각 상승하였음

그러다 지난 주 후반 3일간 주가가 조정을 받았는데 이에 대해 전문가는 다음 3가지 이유를 들면서 그간 주가가 너무 많이, 그리고 빠르게 상승하였다고 함.

1) A negative earnings outlook

9년내 최고였던 기업들의 분기 이익 전망이 점차 부정적 전망으로 바뀌고 있음. 최근 한 조사기관은 올해 기업이익이 평균 0.7% 감소할 것으로 보는군요.

그리고 1분기 이후 더 악화될 것으로 전망(earnings recession trough in the U.S. could be later than 1Q and deeper)

2) Trade deal uncertainty

 다음주 미-중간 협상이 진행 되지만, 목요일 무역장관 말대로 협상 타결은 어려워 보임(‘We've got a pretty sizable distance to go’)

3) Charts showing comeback has gone too far, too fast

기술적(차트) 분석상, 200일 이동평균선(2,742 points)까지 너무 단기간에 상승하여 조정이 필요한 시점이 되었음

<생각>

10년이상 지속된 미국의 주가상승 요인은 유사이래 최대 유동성 + 꾸준한 경기호조 + 임금, 기업이윤 상승임 -> 작년 10월이후 이런 추세의 빠른 역전 인식으로 주가 급락 -> 그러나 작년말 연준 정책 완화 및 경기호조 지속으로 최근 주가 반등 ->지난 주 후반 소폭 조정.

최근 많은 전문가들이 미국 주가는 양단간의 분수령(make-or-break)에 도달했다고 말함. 큰 틀에서 위험자산에 대한 보수적 접근이 점차 유효할 듯. 어디로? ㅎㅎ

정견만 드림

1. Trade war headlines could get much worse before they get better as the US looks to Europe, CNBC

Patti Domm | @pattidomm

Feb 8, 2019. Published 5 Hours Ago Updated 2 Hours Ago

• U.S.-China trade talks are set for next week, amid new uncertainty about progress in the talks.
• At the same time, the clock is ticking on a Feb. 17 report from the Commerce Department, which could recommend auto tariffs on European cars.
• Strategist say the Trump administration has 90 days to act on the auto tariffs, and is likely to slap a 25 percent tariff on European autos, after it has resolved talks with China.

With little apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks, the Trump administration could be about to open up a new front in the trade wars by taking on the European auto industry — and that could spook markets.

U.S. negotiators head to China next week, and while there are few signs any kind of deal is near, many strategists expect to see some signs that talks will continue and an eventual agreement will be reached, even if a March 1 deadline on new tariffs is pushed back.

But while the market has focused on those talks, another battle is brewing. The Commerce Department by Feb. 17 is expected to release a broad report on auto imports and national security, and experts say a part of that report could recommend tariffs on European autos. The White House would then have 90 days to respond.

Dan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas, said Trump could be using the threat of auto tariffs as a way to get the EU to cooperate on other matters. The EU has been resisting efforts to include U.S. agriculture in a trade deal. "Just because there's a report does not mean tariffs will go into effect," he notes.

But some economists expect the administration to move on the auto tariffs, specifically on European cars. For instance, UBS economists said they expect 25 percent tariffs to be placed on finished vehicles, not parts. The administration then could grant exemptions to other countries that have cooperated, like Korea, Canada and Mexico, but the European Union would not be exempted.

"It just seems like if people had been worried about the tariff war with China, this would be another reason for people to worry. In our view, this is not a macro event for the U.S. because the auto industry seems to be pretty tariff savvy and can get around them," said Seth Carpenter, chief U.S. economist at UBS.

'Market would tank'

Some strategists fear investors are keenly focused on China, and expect a resolution, but could be surprised by ramped-up trade friction with Europe.

"The market would tank," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. "The market has spoken loud and clear that it's had enough of these tariffs. ... The market is fed up with this. Global growth is slowing dramatically because of trade. You want to put another bullet in it's head?"

Stocks sold off Thursday after top White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said the differences between the U.S. and China are still "pretty sizable."

The market also became nervous after reports that there is no meeting now planned now between President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping, ahead of the March deadline.

"What matters most are whether the tariffs are going up on March 1, and there's some confusion about that," said Clifton of Strategas. Clifton said he expects the tariffs to be delayed if discussions are ongoing and an agreement will ultimately be reached.

"The market started pricing some very high expectations," he said, adding that the Trump administration may intentionally be tamping down expectations. "If next week's talks go well, I would not be surprised to see [a Trump, Xi meeting] gets put on the calendar."

Adding to concerns about China, Trump could soon issue an executive order banning Huawei equipment, according to Politico. The U.S. alleges the Chinese telecom company has been conducting cyberintrusions and in January, the Justice Department filed charges against the company and its CFO, who has been arrested in Canada.

U.S. Trade Representiative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will attend the next round of talks, and the U.S. is seeking a round following that. The emphasis is expected to be on enforcement and changes in policy by China on things like intellectual property.

Lots of moving pieces

"Next week is a very big week. Lighthizer is clearly a hawk," said Tom Block, Washington strategist at Fundstrat. He said it will be important to see a positive tone after the meeting, as none of the other sessions have been downbeat. "They gave a good cop, bad cop team going over there. It will be very important how that communique comes out after the meeting."

Economists believe the U.S. and China will ultimately come together because the trade war is hurting both countries.

November trade data showed the U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply. Both imports and exports declined but the drop-off in imports was larger.

"That showed a sharp drop in imports of 3.6 percent month on month. That's a big drop. We also got trade data for Asian exports to the U.S. for December. Asian exports to the U.S. in December were down 10 percent," said Carpenter. "I do think trade matters ... when you start to affect the U.S. and China, you're by definition talking about a global phenomena. The U.S. economy is big. The Chinese economy is big. Put them together, and it has to register on a global scale."

Source: UBS

Block said there's a fog of trade issues currently, and even though he expects a deal, the outcome with China is still uncertain. He also notes that the reworked trade agreement with Canada and Mexico is not adopted yet, with both Republicans and Democrats in Congress seeking changes.

"There's bilateral negotiations going on with Japan. ... There's negotiations going on with the EU. There's a lot of moving pieces on trade, and [Trump] set up, with his bluster, a lot of key points coming up, and I don't think anyone knows where they're going. There's a lot of murkiness with the whole trade picture," said Block.

Strategists expect if the Commerce Department does move on auto tariffs, the administration would wait to respond until after it has a deal with China.

"We think China has shown some willingness to make some concessions," said Citigroup economist Cesar Rojas. "For example, on IP protection, in a different forum, the government has pledged more strict protection. ... There has also been some news suggesting they will push for legislation on core technology theft."

Rojas said the sticking point will be in the details and whether China follows through and whether the U.S. can be satisfied with enforcement.

"If there is a positive tone, then our expectation is there could be a roll over of the deadline in recognition of progress in the negotiations, and therefore the trade representative would move forward. If the tone is not positive then that would hint at the potential escalation, but still we are about two more weeks ahead of that deadline," Rojas said.

If the Commerce Department proposes tariffs on European autos, it would not be a surprise, given Trump's criticism of German luxury vehicles in the U.S. despite the fact that BMW and Daimler are also U.S. manufacturers.

"We expect the report will recommend tariffs," said Rojas. "The administration is likely to push for trade talks. ... What we're seeing are signs of a slowdown in the European economy ... to come up with this threat of additional tariffs when they were relatively weak gives the U.S. additional leverage."

2. Europe is beginning to break up Facebook's business, CNN Business

Analysis by Ivana Kottasová, CNN Business

February 8, 2019

London (CNN Business) Facebook built a massive advertising business on what it knows about its users. But could the company's enormous database soon become its biggest problem?

The clearest warning yet came Thursday, when Germany's antitrust office ruled that Facebook was abusing its market position by combining its data with information from Instagram, WhatsApp and third party websites.

The regulator ordered Facebook to stop the practice in a ruling that experts say could shape the company's future — and potentially even lead to its breakup.

"In many ways, they are internally breaking up Facebook by limiting how they do business, how the different services interact," said Anu Bradford, a professor at Columbia Law School. "It's not a breakup, but it is certainly ramping up the pressure," she added.

The fact that the data issue was handled by an antitrust regulator, rather than a privacy watchdog, could mark an important shift in the way authorities view social media.

Ioannis Lianos, a competition expert and professor at University College London, said that antitrust law has traditionally focused on whether companies use their size to exclude competition and increase prices.

"This case shows that in the digital economy, harms to consumers may not always take the form of higher prices or lack of innovation, but also lower privacy," he said.

Harming consumers?

Facebook (FB) doesn't charge for using its social network. Instead, users "pay" by handing over their data, which Facebook then turns into real money by selling advertisements targeted at specific users.

It has added to its data holdings in recent years by purchasing Instagram and WhatsApp.

The German regulator argued that Facebook (FB) controls more than 95% of the country's social media market, which means users have to choose between its data collection and not using social media.

It said that companies such as Snapchat (SNAP), Google's (GOOGL) YouTube and Twitter (TWTR) don't offer the same services as Facebook and therefore can't be included in the market.

"That makes it a competition problem," said Lianos.

The regulator has ordered Facebook to seek users' explicit consent to collect and combine their data.

Facebook said in a blog post that it disagreed with the decision and plans to appeal against it.

"The [regulator] underestimates the fierce competition we face in Germany, misinterprets our compliance with [European privacy rules] and undermines the mechanisms European law provides for ensuring consistent data protection standards across the EU," Facebook said. It also claimed the regulator was "trying to "implement an unconventional standard for a single company."

Facebook declined to comment for this story.

Will Europe make the next move?

Europe's top antitrust regulator, the European Commission, said Thursday that it "took note" of the German decision. Experts say the Commission could eventually open a similar investigation of its own.

"The Commission doesn't have the power itself to go after Facebook on privacy grounds, but it has plenty of powers under competition law," said Bradford.

"If [the Commission] wants to take the lead itself on Facebook, it has to be [about] competition," she added.

An EU competition investigation that concluded Facebook was abusing its dominant position would expose the company to potential fines of up to 10% of its annual revenue. In severe cases the Commission has the powers to order companies to be broken up.

Europe last year imposed a record €4.3 billion ($5 billion) antitrust fine on Google.

Calls to limit Facebook's power are growing in some quarters.

"Many people have been coming to the realization that letting Facebook build its empire through acquisitions, most notably of WhatsApp and Instagram, has not been a good thing, and that something has to be done about it," said Paul Bernal, a lecturer in media law at the University of East Anglia. "This ruling could be a step on that path."

3. After climbing to start 2019, the stock market comeback is on hold – here's why, CNBC

Michael Sheetz | @thesheetztweetz

Feb 8, 2019

• The Dow and S&P 500 indexes each climb over 7 percent in the past six weeks, but the rally in U.S. stocks has paused.
• There are three major reasons: A negative earnings outlook, trade deal uncertainty and charts showing the comeback has gone too far, too fast.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average clinched its first three day loss of 2019 on Friday and there are a few key reasons the stock market's recent rally has slowed.

The Dow and S&P 500 indexes each climbed over 7 percent in the past six weeks, but the rally in U.S. stocks has paused. The Dow was headed for its first negative week of the year but narrowly eked out an 0.17 percent gain after a late rally on Friday afternoon.

Here are the three major reasons:

1. A negative earnings outlook

After many stocks rallied during the best quarterly earnings season in nine years, investors began looking at the current quarter and the year ahead — and the 2019 outlook is not great.

Wall Street analysts are slashing earnings expectations for the first quarter of 2019 so sharply that the overall estimate of profit growth for the period just turned negative. Earnings are now expected to fall on average by 0.8 percent, according to FactSet. That's quite a reversal from September, when analysts expected profits to jump nearly 7 percent. Blame poor company outlooks accompanying the strong fourth-quarter numbers.

The slide in expectations matches the view of Morgan Stanley chief equity strategist Mike Wilson, who has been warning of an earnings recession.

"Earnings are deteriorating even faster than we expected," Wilson said in a note on Monday. "The earnings revision breadth over the past month has been even more negative than we expected leading us to think [the] earnings recession trough in the U.S. could be later than 1Q and deeper."

2. Trade deal uncertainty

Compounding the year's weak profit expectations has been muddying trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. A critical meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will not take place before the March trade war ceasefire deadline expires, traders learned on Thursday. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal reported that neither the U.S. nor China has even drafted an accord regarding either country's demands. If a deal is not struck by March 1 then U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will increase.

"We've got a pretty sizable distance to go" in the trade negotiations, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said on Thursday.

3. Charts showing comeback has gone too far, too fast

On the technical analysis side of things, the S&P 500 has faced resistance as it approached its 200-day moving average of 2,742 points. That's a key level watched by stock traders, as until October the 200-day moving average had supported the bull market rally of the previous three years. The recent rally saw the S&P 500 climb all the way to the 200-day moving average before it backed off again.

[도드람]

고래 싸움에 새우등 터질가 조마 조마 합니다 ^^

[모러바(volt)]

전방위로 확산 되는군요.걱정 입니다.나라가 작다보니.